1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is of great significance in the process of basically realizing socialist modernization. Boosting consumption and technological innovation will be the main drivers on the demand and supply sides respectively during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Policies conducive to expanding domestic demand and supporting technological innovation will continue to be promoted, and the relevant industries are expected to benefit from the policy advantages [3][4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 "15th Five-Year Plan" 《Suggestions》 Main Content - The "15th Five-Year Plan" 《Suggestions》 has 15 parts and 61 articles, divided into three major sections. It positions the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as an important stage with a connecting role in the process of basically realizing socialist modernization [7]. - The development environment is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with many uncertain and unpredictable factors. Internationally, the relationship between China and the United States is complex, but China has many favorable factors for shaping the external environment. Domestically, China has advantages such as a stable economic foundation, but also faces challenges such as unbalanced and insufficient development [7][8]. - The main goals include achieving significant results in high - quality development, greatly improving the level of technological self - reliance, and continuously improving people's living standards [9]. 3.2 Industry Construction - Prioritize optimizing and upgrading traditional industries to maintain the competitiveness of industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemical engineering in the global division of labor. Cultivate and strengthen 4 strategic emerging industry clusters and 6 future industries [11]. - Expand the opening - up of the service industry to attract international capital and advanced business models, and moderately and ahead of time build new infrastructure to reserve development space [11]. 3.3 Technological Innovation - Strengthen original innovation and key core technology research in fields such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines. Increase the proportion of basic research investment to achieve technological self - control [12]. - Promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into productivity, and create new industries [12]. - Implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action to lead the transformation of scientific research paradigms and empower various industries [12]. 3.4 Domestic Market - Adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, combine improving people's livelihood and promoting consumption, and investment in objects and people. Promote the positive interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand [13]. - Specific measures include boosting consumption (improving consumption scenarios and promoting residents' consumption ability), expanding effective investment (optimizing government investment and stimulating private investment), and removing obstacles to the construction of a unified national market [13][14]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Governance - Strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and maintain the continuity, effectiveness, and consistency of policies. Promote an economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption [15]. - In fiscal and tax reform, improve the local tax and direct tax systems, and adjust the central - local fiscal relationship [15]. 3.6 Livelihood Security - Solve structural employment problems by strengthening the coordination between industry and employment, and promoting the healthy development of flexible employment [16]. - Improve the income distribution system to increase the income of low - income groups, expand the middle - income group, and form an olive - shaped distribution pattern [17]. - Improve the social security system, including pension and medical insurance, and focus on reducing the high - cost expenditures of residents in education, housing, etc. [17]. 3.7 Green Transformation - With the goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030, accelerate the construction of a new energy system and implement energy - saving and carbon - reduction reforms. The construction of the electricity market and carbon emission trading market is expected to accelerate [18]. - Reduce pollution emissions, strengthen pollution control, and promote the formation of a green production and lifestyle [18]. 3.8 Summary The "15th Five-Year Plan" 《Suggestions》 deploys strategic tasks and major measures in multiple fields. Boosting consumption and technological innovation will be the main focuses, and relevant industries are expected to benefit from policy support [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction, technological self-reliance, and high-quality development in real estate, indicating a shift in focus towards sustainable growth and innovation-driven development [1][3][20]. Economic Growth and Structure - The plan aims for a per capita GDP of approximately $25,000 by 2035, with current figures at $13,500, projected to exceed $14,000 this year [4][5]. - To achieve this goal, an average GDP growth rate of over 4.4% is necessary over the next decade [6]. - The focus is shifting from investment-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth, marking a significant structural change in the economy [11]. Regional Development - The plan highlights the need for optimized regional economic layouts and coordinated development, with major urban clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area identified as key growth areas [12][13]. - The strategy aims to address regional disparities, particularly the widening gap between northern and southern regions [13]. High-Tech Industry Development - A goal to establish a new high-tech industry over the next decade is set, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [14]. - The high-tech sector is expected to reshape industrial structures and urban competitiveness, with significant market potential in areas like electric vehicles and low-altitude economy [15][16]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is now positioned as a foundation for public welfare rather than a pillar of economic growth, indicating a transition from rapid expansion to quality development [20]. - Sales in the real estate market have declined significantly, with new and second-hand housing sales dropping from 1.93 billion square meters to 1.5 billion square meters since 2021 [22]. - The focus is shifting towards urban renewal rather than new construction, impacting land finance and necessitating new revenue sources for local governments [24]. Investment in Human Capital - The plan proposes measures to create a family-friendly society, including financial support for child-rearing and education, which may stimulate population growth [26][27]. - The expansion of free education is also highlighted, with a potential move towards 12 years of free education [27]. - Wage increases are anticipated, with recent adjustments to minimum wage standards across various provinces signaling a commitment to improving income distribution [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift towards high-quality development, focusing on effective demand and technological self-reliance, contrasting with the previous plan's broader economic growth goals [1][2][3] Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges complex changes in the development environment, highlighting issues such as unilateralism and insufficient effective demand, indicating a stronger focus on total demand during this period [1][13][14] Development Goals - The plan sets seven specific goals, including significant achievements in high-quality development and a marked increase in technological self-reliance, with a clear target for improving the resident consumption rate [2][16][17] Industrial Development - Key changes in industrial development include a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries, with specific mention of sectors like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][18][19] Technological Innovation - The plan aims for decisive breakthroughs in critical core technologies through a new national system, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [4][19][21] Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy shifts to a dual approach of using new demand to drive new supply, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment, indicating a more proactive stance on domestic market dynamics [5][22][23] Institutional Reforms - The framework for institutional reforms is more focused, aiming to enhance the vitality of various business entities and improve macroeconomic governance, with specific measures for state-owned and private enterprises [6][24][25] Opening Up - The plan emphasizes the need for steady expansion of institutional openness, aligning with international high-standard trade rules and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [7][26][27] Rural Revitalization - The rural revitalization strategy remains consistent, with new measures to enhance rural infrastructure and public services, drawing on successful past initiatives [8][27] Regional Development - The plan highlights the importance of regional coordination and the role of key growth areas, promoting a more integrated approach to regional economic development [9][29][30] Green Development - The focus on green development is intensified, with a systematic approach to building a new energy system and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals [9][31][32] Social Welfare - The plan prioritizes high-quality employment and income growth, with specific measures to enhance social security and address housing as a fundamental issue of public welfare [10][34][35]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reinforcing the foundation of the real economy, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [1][2] Group 1: Advanced Manufacturing - The plan highlights the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing sector, underscoring the critical role of advanced manufacturing in economic development [1][3] - Advanced manufacturing is identified as a key focus for future development, with institutions suggesting it will drive the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure [2][3] Group 2: Traditional Industries - The plan calls for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, and machinery [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for technological transformation and the promotion of smart, green, and service-oriented manufacturing [2][3] Group 3: Emerging and Future Industries - The plan aims to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, focusing on strategic sectors like new energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [3][4] - It outlines initiatives for large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies and products, accelerating the development of emerging industries [3][4] Group 4: Future Industry Development - The plan encourages exploration of diverse technological routes and business models in future industries, including quantum technology and hydrogen energy [4] - It highlights the potential of sectors like energy storage and solid-state batteries, which are expected to drive growth in emerging industries [4]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in China's economic, technological, defense, and international standing by 2035, with a target of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country, estimated to be around $20,000 [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to exceed 130 trillion yuan in 2024, reaching approximately 13.49 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP expected to hit $13,445, marking a continuous increase above $13,000 for two consecutive years [2] - To achieve the per capita GDP target of $23,000 by 2035, an average nominal growth rate of 5% per year is required over the next decade, which would represent a significant increase of nearly $10,000 from current levels [2] Challenges and Strategies - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a crucial period for addressing internal challenges such as aging population and declining total population, which are predictable and manageable through reforms aimed at enhancing economic vitality [3] - Transitioning from factor-driven growth to total factor productivity improvement is essential for overcoming demographic and international challenges, with major economic provinces expected to lead this transformation [3] Industry Development Initiatives - The Chinese government plans to upgrade key industries, estimating an additional market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, focusing on emerging sectors such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communications [4] - These initiatives are expected to inject new momentum into China's economy and contribute to the goal of increasing per capita GDP by 2035, effectively creating a new high-tech industrial scale equivalent to another China [4]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic priorities for China's economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G technology as new economic growth points [2][3][11] Future Industries - The six identified future industries are expected to fundamentally alter production methods and drive high-quality economic development, reflecting China's strategic response to global technological competition [3][4] - Quantum technology is anticipated to initiate a second quantum revolution, while hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy may provide ultimate solutions for energy challenges [3][4] - Brain-computer interfaces and embodied intelligence are set to usher in a new era of human-machine integration, and 6G will define the infrastructure for future intelligent societies [3][4] Social Impact - The development of these future industries is projected to significantly transform social structures and lifestyles, with brain-computer interfaces potentially unlocking human cognitive boundaries and aiding in the treatment of severe diseases [4][5] - Embodied intelligence, combining robotics and AI, is expected to reshape various sectors including industry, services, and healthcare [4][5] - The alignment of these technologies with sustainable development goals is highlighted, with hydrogen and nuclear fusion supporting carbon neutrality, and biomanufacturing reducing reliance on petroleum-based materials [4][5] Economic Transformation - Future industries are positioned as core engines for economic transformation, shifting the growth model from factor-driven to innovation-driven [5][11] - Biomanufacturing is identified as a key pathway for a green industrial revolution, with projections indicating that by 2030, biobased chemicals could replace 25% of organic chemicals and 20% of petroleum fuels in the U.S. [5] - China's biomanufacturing market is valued at 420 billion yuan in 2023, with significant growth potential compared to the U.S. [5] Strategic Value - Maintaining a leading position in these fields is crucial for national security and industrial autonomy, especially in the context of intensified global competition [6][11] - Quantum communication's unconditional security is seen as a means to establish a national information highway, while biomanufacturing technology is critical for food and pharmaceutical supply chain stability [6][11] Regional Collaboration - The future industries involve a global competition for strategic advantage, with China adopting a "top-level design + regional collaboration" approach to drive development [6][7] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are emerging as technology hubs, leveraging their resources to lead in quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G [6][7] - The regional economic structure is expected to deepen, with eastern coastal areas dominating core technology R&D and high-end manufacturing, while central and western regions focus on supporting functions [7] International Cooperation - China is enhancing international cooperation, as evidenced by the signing of the upgraded free trade agreement with ASEAN, which includes digital and green economy collaboration [7][10] - Major cities are hosting international future industry summits to attract global talent and capital, fostering an open innovation ecosystem [7][10] Long-term Vision - The global competition for future industries is intense, with countries vying for strategic advantages in technological transformation [8][9] - China's proactive planning through the "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to capitalize on technological iterations and achieve a leapfrog development in key areas [10][11] - The focus on establishing a collaborative innovation ecosystem and participating in international standard-setting is essential for enhancing China's influence in global industrial chains [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key changes and focuses in the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), highlighting shifts in development goals, industry focus, and policy priorities. Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the complexity of the development environment, including unilateralism and hegemonism, while also recognizing favorable long-term trends. It highlights issues such as insufficient effective demand and pressures on employment and income growth, indicating a greater focus on total demand during this period [1][14][16]. Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets seven goals, with a clear emphasis on "significant achievements in high-quality development," which includes maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving total factor productivity, and increasing the resident consumption rate. The plan also introduces a new goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology [2][17][18]. Industry Development - The plan includes a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries. It highlights the importance of traditional sectors like mining and manufacturing while also emphasizing new industries such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][19][20]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through a new national system and extraordinary measures, particularly in areas like integrated circuits and advanced materials. It also proposes increased R&D tax deductions and greater government procurement of innovative products [4][20][21]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The plan shifts from a supply-driven approach to one that emphasizes demand, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment. It includes measures to enhance consumer spending and streamline government investment processes [5][22][23]. Systemic Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on enhancing the vitality of various business entities and improving the market-oriented allocation of resources. It emphasizes the need for stronger protection of property rights and the optimization of asset structures [7][24][25]. Opening Up - The plan advocates for a steady expansion of institutional openness, aiming to align with international high-standard trade rules and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi, reflecting a proactive approach in the context of global economic changes [8][26]. Rural Revitalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" continues to prioritize rural revitalization, incorporating lessons from previous initiatives to improve rural infrastructure and public services, thereby promoting agricultural modernization [9][27][28]. Regional Development - The plan emphasizes the role of key regions in driving economic growth and proposes measures to enhance public services based on residency registration, reflecting a focus on urbanization and regional advantages [10][29]. Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the establishment of a new energy system, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy and implementing dual control over carbon emissions, indicating a commitment to sustainable development [11][30]. Social Welfare - The plan places a strong emphasis on high-quality employment and income distribution, introducing measures to enhance social security and housing supply, reflecting a shift in the perception of housing as a social issue [12][31][32].

Core Insights - The "Suggestions" for the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasize innovative regulatory approaches and the development of venture capital to foster the growth of future industries and risk-sharing mechanisms [1] - The plan aims to promote the development of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and cultivate unicorn companies [1] - It highlights the importance of forward-looking layouts for future industries, exploring diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulatory rules [1] - Key sectors identified for economic growth include quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [1] - The plan also focuses on building emerging pillar industries and implementing industrial innovation projects to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [1] - It calls for the improvement of the industrial ecosystem and the implementation of large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, products, and scenarios to expedite the scaling of emerging industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic goal of "recreating a Chinese high-tech industry," which aims to achieve significant growth in scale, value-added, and contribution to GDP over the next decade, effectively creating a new high-tech industrial landscape in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Emerging and Future Industries - The strategy involves nurturing and expanding emerging industries that already have a foundation and are rapidly growing, such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to generate several trillion-level markets [1][2]. - Long-term strategies include forward-looking layouts for future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication, which are anticipated to become new economic growth points [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Modernization - The recreation of the existing Chinese high-tech industry is seen as essential for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries, supported primarily by high-tech industries [2][3]. - Traditional industries currently account for about 80% of the value-added in manufacturing, and through upgrading key industries like chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding, an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan is expected to be added over the next five years [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Global Competitiveness - The article highlights the need for deep integration of technological and industrial innovation to maintain a proactive position in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, ensuring that innovation is supported by market and industrial foundations [3]. - The strategy aims to reshape the global industrial competitive landscape, providing a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization and ensuring that China occupies a leading position in the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [3].