新华财经上海6月23日电（葛佳明） 中东地缘紧张局势的骤然升温，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡的 消息引发全球能源市场巨震，油运运费大幅攀升，推动原油、天然气、甲醇等重点能源品种价格为地缘 政治风险定价。 多数分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，中东局势或难以迅速降温，霍尔木兹海峡是中东地区重要油品出 口通道，短期冲突导致阶段性海运贸易受阻，使得各类资产再度上演剧烈波动。 通过复盘1970年以来中东地区重大冲突对市场的影响可以发现，在避险资产表现中黄金较美元表现更 优，对原油的短期影响最为直接，航运成本面临重构，液化天然气及甲醇市场也将受到显著影响。 油运运费大幅攀升 伊朗作为能源输出国，地缘冲突或对全球能源供应造成明显扰动。 霍尔木兹海峡是世界最重要的石油和天然气运输通道。美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示称，每天约 2000万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运出。2024年和2025年第一季度，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油占全球 海运石油贸易总量的四分之一以上，约占全球石油和石油产品消费总量的五分之一。2024年全球约五分 之一的液化天然气贸易也通过霍尔木兹海峡。 上周，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which have led to increased oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $75.78 and $74.04 per barrel respectively, marking increases of 0.8% and 1.2% [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both revised down their oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to weak demand from the U.S. and China [3] - OPEC+ has underperformed in its production increase plans, with a cumulative increase of only 180,000 barrels per day in May 2025, compared to the planned 410,000 barrels per day [3] Group 2 - The article highlights the strategic importance of oil and gas sectors amid external uncertainties, emphasizing that major Chinese oil companies will maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production [4] - The ongoing conflict has heightened risks in oil transportation, with approximately 11% of global maritime trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes significant percentages of oil and gas exports [4] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) reported a significant increase in shipping rates, with rates reaching $57,758 per day, a 72% increase since the conflict began [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping market is experiencing a surge in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a sustained increase in oil transportation costs [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Market Dynamics - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil shipping rates are expected to continue rising, with VLCC daily charter rates likely to remain above $50,000 per day, indicating a high-level fluctuation [1]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) shows a significant increase, with the TD3C TCE reaching $57,758 per day as of June 19, up approximately 154% from $22,764 per day on June 12 [1]. - Companies like Zhongyuan Shipping and China Merchants Energy have a significant portion of their VLCC fleet operating in the Middle East, with Zhongyuan Shipping reporting a 53% operational day share in this region [2]. Group 2: Alternative Shipping Routes - The market is exploring alternative shipping routes, such as the Saudi East-West pipeline and routes through the Suez Canal, which may also lead to increased freight costs due to longer travel distances and regional instability [2]. - Adjustments in shipping demand may occur if trade flows change due to the Middle East situation, prompting companies to reposition their fleets to areas with higher cargo demand, such as West Africa and South America [2]. Group 3: Shipping Companies' Responses - Major shipping companies like Maersk and CMA CGM are currently maintaining operations in the Middle East but are closely monitoring the situation for any necessary adjustments to their routes and safety protocols [3].

大摩闭门会-金融，汽车，房地产，航运，石油行业更新 20250618 摘要 5 月社融数据显示贷款增速维持 7%左右，银行压缩短期票据类贷款， 信贷市场化趋势明显。公司存款和 M1 数据回升，企业现金流缓慢改善， 表明通过市场化方法解决产能过剩是金融体系的重要方向。 汽车行业稳步前行，5 月乘用车批发量约 235 万辆，新能源车约 120 万 辆。前五个月乘用车累计增长 13%，新能源车增长超四成，燃油车下滑 6%。全年预估乘用车批发数增长 3%，新能源车预计增长 22%~23%。 今年前五个月汽车贷款业务达成率为 39%，电动车为 35%，燃油车为 43%，均高于去年同期。尽管存在价格战，但整体进展稳步推进，全年 汽车市场预期保持稳定。 近期价格战由头部车企降价引发，监管要求车企自我监督。终端消费者 观望氛围减弱，购车意愿增强。厂家持续补贴经销商清库存，整体终端 折扣未明显收窄。 Q&A 今年金融系统的周期底部是否已经逐渐回升？有哪些具体表现？ 今年金融系统的周期底部确实在逐渐回升。去年基本见底，今年则在逐步恢复。 从严监管防风险转向促发展，尤其是香港作为试点的新趋势正在形成，IPO 也 在恢复。5 月份的 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Industry**: Significant developments in the BCI sector, particularly in the U.S. and China, with a notable rise in stock prices for related companies. - **Military Trade and Aerospace Industry**: Increased military trade due to geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on companies involved in military aircraft and drone manufacturing. - **Logistics and Shipping Industry**: Impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation and logistics services. - **Solid-State Battery Technology**: Advancements in solid-state battery technology and related equipment manufacturing. Core Points and Arguments - **BCI Market Growth**: The global BCI market is projected to grow from $2.61 billion in 2024 to $2.93 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% expected until 2033 [20][20][20] - **Investment in BCI Companies**: Companies like Oriental Zhongke and Lihua Kechuang are making strides in BCI hardware and systems, indicating a robust investment landscape in this sector [20][20][20] - **Military Trade Opportunities**: The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to benefit military trade, with companies like Chengxi Aviation and AVIC Chengfei actively participating in international exhibitions to showcase military capabilities [20][20][20] - **Oil Transportation Risks**: The recent conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased oil transportation costs, with companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy facing operational challenges due to heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz [21][22][22] - **Solid-State Battery Equipment Demand**: The solid-state battery sector is seeing increased demand for manufacturing equipment, with companies like Winbond Technology and others delivering key technologies to major clients [22][23][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Emerging Technologies in BCI**: Companies are exploring various applications of BCI technology, including medical devices and educational tools, which could expand the market further [20][20][20] - **International Logistics Expansion**: Companies are enhancing their international logistics capabilities, particularly in rail transport, to meet the growing demand for cross-border trade [22][22][22] - **Smart Sports Equipment Development**: The collaboration between Meta and Oakley to develop smart glasses for sports indicates a trend towards integrating technology with fitness and outdoor activities [23][23][23] - **Environmental and Regulatory Considerations**: The development of RWA (Real World Assets) technology and its application in energy storage solutions reflects a growing focus on sustainability and regulatory compliance in the energy sector [23][23][23]

Group 1: Oil Market Concerns - The primary concern in the oil market is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly impact oil flow from the Persian Gulf, affecting nearly one-third of global maritime oil trade [1] - A severe disruption in oil circulation could push oil prices up to $120 per barrel, with OPEC's spare capacity unlikely to alleviate market tensions due to its location in the Persian Gulf [1] - Governments may need to tap into their strategic oil reserves as a temporary solution to the crisis [1] Group 2: Shipping and Freight Rates - Short-term oil shipping prices are expected to rise, with future freight trends dependent on the escalation of the situation and potential actions by Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The Baltic Exchange's crude oil shipping index showed a significant increase, reaching 987 points on June 16, marking a 6.36% rise [1] - VLCC freight rates for the Middle East to China route surged from WS40 to WS58.5, resulting in daily earnings for VLCCs built in 2010 increasing from $20,000 to over $35,000 [1] Group 3: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, are expected to heighten risks in oil transportation and may lead to increased compliance demand in the oil shipping market [2] - The oil shipping market previously faced supply-demand pressures due to seasonal factors, but geopolitical conflicts are anticipated to relieve some of this pricing pressure, allowing for a potential recovery in freight rates [2] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China Merchants Energy (中远海能) forecasts a net profit of approximately 3.96 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 17.2% [3] - Morgan Stanley suggests that U.S. sanctions may drive "shadow fleets" out of the market, benefiting legitimate tanker operations, and expects negative sentiment regarding the fourth quarter of 2024 to improve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have significantly impacted the commodity and shipping markets, particularly leading to rising oil prices and shipping rates due to heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global energy supply, transporting approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of global maritime oil trade [1]. - Following incidents of ships catching fire near the Strait, international oil prices have continued to rise, with the Baltic Exchange's crude oil transport index (BDTI) increasing by 6.36% to 987 points as of June 16 [1]. - The average daily shipping traffic through the Strait has been reported at 144 vessels, with 37% being oil tankers, indicating a significant reliance on this route for oil transportation [2]. Group 2: Shipping Rates and Trends - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have surged, with rates on the Middle East to China route increasing from WS 40 to WS 58.5, resulting in daily earnings for VLCCs rising from $20,000 to over $35,000 [2]. - The current geopolitical situation has led to a "volume shrinkage and price increase" phenomenon in the oil tanker market, with rental activities nearly halting while prices rise due to tight supply [3]. - Analysts predict that if the Strait were to be closed, transportation costs could increase by 30% to 50%, significantly impacting shipping rates in the short term [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the current tensions, the likelihood of a long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is considered low, with the primary impact being disruptions in shipping efficiency rather than a complete halt [4]. - The anticipated increase in oil production by OPEC+ is expected to boost oil transportation demand, which may lead to improved capacity utilization for VLCCs [4]. - The shipping industry is likely to experience a shift in trade flows and structures due to the geopolitical factors affecting the Strait, which could further complicate the global shipping landscape [3][4].

1、李强：着力扩大有效需求 推动经济运行持续向好 重要程度：★★★★★ 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强6月16日至18日在江苏调研。李强强调，要坚持创新驱动发展，着 力扩大有效需求，进一步营造干事创业浓厚氛围，在深化改革开放中激发高质量发展动力活力，推动经济 运行持续向好。 李强指出，中国拥有规模巨大、不断成长的市场，欢迎各国企业来华投资兴业，我们将加大政策支持和服 务保障力度，为外资企业在华深耕发展创造良好环境。 ②面向优质科技型企业试点IPO预先审阅机制，进一步提升证券交易所预沟通服务质效。 ③扩大第五套标准适用范围，支持人工智能、商业航天、低空经济等更多前沿科技领域企业适用。 ④支持在审未盈利科技型企业面向老股东开展增资扩股等活动。 ⑤健全支持科创板上市公司发展的制度机制。 2、证监会明确!关于科创成长层 重要程度：★★★★ 6月18日，中国证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层 增强制度包容性适应性的意见》。意见围绕增 强优质科技型企业的制度包容性适应性，推出6项改革举措，主要包括： ①对于适用科创板第五套上市标准的企业，试点引入资深专业机构投资者制度。 ⑥健全科创板投资和融资相协调的市场功能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting the differing positions and interests of the three parties involved: Israel, Iran, and the United States. It suggests that the conflict is likely to intensify in the coming weeks as Israel aims to eliminate the nuclear threat posed by Iran, while Iran seeks to negotiate for stability and the U.S. aims to mediate for political gain [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Israel's Actions - On June 14-15, Israel conducted drone strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, marking a significant escalation targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. This attack resulted in fires and production halts [1]. - Israeli military spokesperson announced strikes on 80 Iranian targets, including nuclear research facilities, indicating a strategy to undermine Iran's military capabilities [1]. - Israel's military actions are driven by the goal of neutralizing Iran's nuclear threat, with no intention of de-escalation until this objective is achieved [3]. Iran's Response - Iran's Foreign Minister expressed readiness to sign a non-nuclear weapons agreement but criticized Israel's military actions as a violation of diplomatic efforts [1]. - Iranian officials indicated that if Israel continues its aggressive actions, a more decisive response would be forthcoming [1][2]. U.S. Involvement - U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed the necessity of preventing escalation in the Middle East, with Trump emphasizing that the U.S. is not involved in the recent attacks on Iran [1]. - Trump expressed willingness to mediate the conflict, aiming to secure a significant diplomatic achievement ahead of the midterm elections [2]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that the conflict will likely escalate further, as Israel maintains control over the situation and continues its military operations against Iran's nuclear facilities [3][4]. - Iran may resort to closing the Strait of Hormuz as a means to exert pressure on Israel, which could significantly impact global oil transportation and lead to heightened international tensions [5][6]. Implications for Oil Transportation - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt 20% of global oil transport, leading to increased shipping costs and significant economic repercussions [6][9]. - If a nuclear agreement is reached, it could legitimize Iran's oil exports, benefiting shipping companies like COSCO, which are positioned to take over the market share previously held by Iran's black market operations [8][9]. - Historical precedents indicate that geopolitical tensions can lead to dramatic increases in oil shipping rates, suggesting that current valuations for companies in the shipping sector may not fully account for potential price surges [9][12]. Investment Opportunities - The article highlights that companies like COSCO have a favorable risk-reward profile, with current valuations not reflecting the potential upside from geopolitical developments [12][13]. - The shipping sector could see significant profit increases if oil prices rise due to conflict-related disruptions, making it an attractive area for investment [13].

解锁【第一财经智享会员】实时解读市场动态，把握投资先机。 【第一财经智享会员专属】 【 今 日 早 盘 】 东方证券投资顾问应雁芳认为，我们要去重视一些板块和个股的* * * * * *。在下一阶段，对于 * * * * * *的板块，如* * * * * *、* * * * * *等，鉴于其短期涨幅过于巨大，在后续基本面验证期能 否兑现预期，则需要投资者进行深入甄别与审慎评估。 国联证券投资顾问刘俊认为，当前阶段市场参与者可能更倾向于* * * * * *的出现或* * * * * *的 确 认 。 该 阶 段 股 指 更 可 能 呈 现 震 荡 格 局 ， 下 行 空 间 预 计 有 限 。 市 场 或 将 围 绕 * * * * * * 反 复 震 荡，以静待* * * * * *或* * * * * *涌现，进而驱动估值重拾升势。 深圳前海多盈财富资产管理基金经理凡明认为，当前市场整体呈现防御基调。短期而言，大 盘股发挥托底作用，小盘股则展现进攻姿态，预示着指数下行空间有限。关于新一轮反弹行 情的启动时点，随着市场调整逐步临近尾声，预计或将于* * * * * *迎来方向性选择。整体而言 持 乐 观 ...