Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand [2] - Small enterprises show significant improvement with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4] - The service industry is experiencing a seasonal decline due to the high base effect from the previous month’s holidays, contributing to the drop in the non-manufacturing index [4] - The construction industry shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence among construction firms [4][5] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for November is at 53.1%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - Analysts predict that the manufacturing sector will continue to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end project accelerations and effective policy implementations [3][5] - The service sector maintains a positive outlook despite a slight decline in the business activity expectation index, which remains at a high level of 55.9% [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [2] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small enterprises has significantly increased to 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] - Medium-sized enterprises show a slight improvement with a PMI of 48.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month [2] - Large enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a drop in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in the sector's economic performance [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index has also dropped to 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points, influenced by factors such as the end of holiday effects [3][4] - The construction sector shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating improved confidence among construction firms [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 53.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 55.9%, despite a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting that service sector firms remain optimistic about future market conditions [4] Group 5: Policy Impact - The implementation of new policy financial tools has resulted in the allocation of 500 billion yuan, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as digital economy and infrastructure [5] - The additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds allocated to local governments is expected to further stimulate investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, contributing to an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, although the manufacturing economic activity did not exceed expectations, there were still positive factors. The emerging industries' prosperity rebounded first, the inventory problem caused by supply - demand imbalance was continuously digested, and the price upward trend remained unchanged with a continuous repair expectation for next year. The impact of new policy - based financial instruments on the industry and market was still in the early stages, and the actual work volume needed further verification next year [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand Drags Production, and De - stocking Exceeds Re - stocking - The drag of previous supply - demand imbalance on production emerged. The production index was weak in the past two months, and the procurement volume was below the critical value for two consecutive months. The "new order index - production index" reached a peak in September [13]. - Manufacturing enterprises have been actively de - stocking for nearly half a year. The inventory growth rate was already at a historically low level, and the downward space was limited. Compared with previous inventory cycles, this cycle had two characteristics: the peak was much lower and the inventory state switched frequently at a low level. The active re - stocking period was short, and the active de - stocking period was long. This was favorable for the bond market [16]. 3.2 Differentiation between Traditional Manufacturing and Emerging Industries - Traditional manufacturing has been in a downturn since April, with PMI below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. However, emerging industries showed improvement since September. The EPMI index of emerging industries was above the boom - bust line for 3 consecutive months, and the BCI index of high - quality private enterprises also rose above the line, with sub - items such as corporate financing environment and investment forward - looking index improving significantly [19]. - The improvement in the prosperity of emerging industries boosted the employment market. The BCI corporate recruitment forward - looking index improved, and the "Internet unemployment benefit search index" decreased. The 500 billion yuan new policy - based financial instruments, fully invested by the end of October, supported over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, showing a strong pulling effect on emerging industries [19][25]. 3.3 Rare Contraction in Service Industry Prosperity - This month, the non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.6 points to 49.5, falling below the critical value for the first time excluding public health events. The construction industry was at the bottom, and the service industry was the main drag. The service industry PMI dropped 0.7 points to 49.5, which was a rare contraction. This was related to seasonal factors and the real - estate sales slump [5][26]. - Some industries in the service industry, such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and finance, were in a high - prosperity range, while real - estate and residential services were below the critical point [28][29].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month below the threshold line[4] - The new orders index and finished goods inventory index for November are 49.2% and 47.3%, respectively, with new orders increasing by 0.4 percentage points and finished goods inventory decreasing by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The "production momentum" index (new orders - finished goods inventory) is at 1.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production momentum[5] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - Manufacturing firms are actively reducing inventory, with the finished goods inventory index significantly below seasonal levels[15] - The raw material purchase price index is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, indicating a widening price gap that compresses profit margins[20] - The "raw material purchase price - factory price" gap is 5.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, further squeezing profit margins for enterprises[20] Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The new export orders index is at 47.6%, showing a recovery of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, although still below the threshold line[9] - The recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has reduced trade friction, contributing to improved export conditions[9] - The forecast for U.S. holiday shopping indicates a record participation of 187 million people, which may positively impact demand for exports[9] Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Risks - Small enterprises show the fastest recovery, with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, reaching the highest level in five years[28] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a contraction in the sector[37] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[41]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - November manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the seasonal average of 50.0%[14] - PMI for production rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%; new orders improved by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%[14] - Industrial raw material prices rebounded, with PMI purchase prices at 53.6% and factory prices at 48.2%, both up from previous values[22] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - November non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, marking the first time this year below the expansion threshold[32] - Construction PMI improved slightly to 49.6%, with new orders index rising by 0.2 percentage points[24] - Policy-driven financial tools are less effective than in 2022, impacting service sector performance negatively[24] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 91.0% by the end of November, a significant increase of 10.1 percentage points from October[24] - Small enterprises showed a notable recovery in PMI, increasing by 2.0 percentage points, benefiting from improved US-China trade relations[22] - PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to around -2.0% in November, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.2%[22]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The PMI for large enterprises is 49.3%, which is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month and remains below the critical point; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises are 48.9% and 49.1%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points respectively, but still below the critical point [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector index at 49.6% (up 0.5 percentage points) and the service sector index at 49.5% (down 0.7 percentage points) [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive PMI output index for November is 49.7%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2][3] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [3] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in economic activity [2][5] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with some industries like real estate showing weaker activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence in future growth [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The composite PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][2][3] - Production and new orders indices improved, with production index at 50.0% and new orders index at 49.2%, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in the sector's economic conditions [1][2][5] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with certain sectors like railway transport and financial services maintaining indices above 55.0% [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in the sector's economic activity [6] Group 3: Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production and non-manufacturing business activity indices at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively [1][6] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 53.1%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market developments [4]

Core Viewpoints - The main contradiction in the current macroeconomic environment is insufficient domestic demand, particularly in consumer spending, highlighting the strategic importance of enhancing consumption [2][9] - It is recommended to maintain the actual GDP growth rate above the potential growth rate of 5.2% for 2025 and set the 2026 GDP growth target around 5% to signal stability [2][37] - A gradual approach to price level control is suggested, aiming for a three-step process to achieve a core CPI growth target of 2% over two to three years [2][38] Macroeconomic Overview - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, aligning closely with the potential growth rate, indicating a stable economic operation [6] - Industrial profits have shown positive improvement, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in profits for large industrial enterprises from January to August 2025 [7] - The service sector has also experienced growth, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in value added, particularly in modern service industries [8] Current Economic Contradictions - The primary contradiction in the macroeconomy is on the demand side, characterized by insufficient consumer demand, with retail sales growth slowing to 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters [9][11] - Investment demand has also declined, with fixed asset investment showing a -0.5% year-on-year growth, a drop of 3.3 percentage points from the first half of the year [9] Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation - The monetary policy index for the first three quarters of 2025 is 44.0, indicating a slight increase in policy strength, with M2 growth at 8.4% by the end of September [12] - The fiscal policy index stands at 57.9, reflecting an increase in fiscal policy strength, with public budget expenditure growing by 3.1% year-on-year [13] - The overall efficiency of stabilization policies is rated at 50.0, showing a positive trend in policy effectiveness [26] Policy Recommendations - It is advised to enhance stabilization policies to address the lack of effective domestic demand, with a focus on both monetary and fiscal measures [38] - Growth policies should prioritize the development of new productive forces, with an emphasis on employment-friendly industrial policies [39] - Structural policies need to optimize investment, industrial, and income distribution structures to better balance total supply and demand [39]