下周关注：欧洲央行周，美国非农数据 本周全球大类资产表现一览： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信建投证券研究 文|周君芝 陈怡 特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席，市场剧震。因为大家担心美联储货币取向发生变化。金银 代表的贵金属，用历史级别的单日下降幅度表达了对流动性的担忧。 供应重塑背景下全球通胀中枢再也回不去，构筑在全球旧秩序基础之上的美元信用也因此备受质疑。 因为货币不敢收紧，所以美债短端利率偏低，而又因长债压不下，所以美债期限利差不肯收窄。美债期 限利差问题，本质上是美国当下困境的映射。 任谁担任美联储主席，都无力改变美国当下困境。凯文·沃什坚称加息缩表，将推扩美债期限利差。暂 不讨论如果上任，凯文·沃什是否严格执行其货币主张，可预见的是，进一步推升美债期限利差的货币 操作将会困难重重。 本周AH股震荡走弱，前期表现亮眼的中证500和2000指数明显回调，恒生科技表现较弱；中债走势分 化，超长端弱于短端。 海外方面，美联储人事变动引发美元指数先下后上，大幅波动。贵金属在冲击历史新高后出现史诗性回 调，原油延续强势表现。 一、中国股市：市场震荡走弱 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题延续促使全球多数市场震荡较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于一些地区地缘问题的延续未决， 本周全球多数市场震荡。本周美股科技股波动较多。虽然本周 微软出现了较大调整，目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.94，仍然处于高于 35 的区间。费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 47.83，逐步逼近 50 这个区间。纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.66，仍然处于 40 以上的区间。由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠 加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影响，美股科技指数中期仍积蓄 一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率达到 40.81，较长时 间处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普的经济、关税、外交等多方面 政策的不确定性较大，且美股估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、消 费、工业等行业里面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化 的可能性。由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题尚未解决，本周欧洲多数 市场出现了明显震荡。由于欧洲经济偏疲软，欧洲多个重要市 场股指 ...

Group 1 - A significant financial operation involving U.S. Treasury bonds has drawn global attention, with Danish and Swedish pension funds selling approximately $8.1 billion in U.S. debt within a few days [1] - The sell-off is perceived as a response to geopolitical tensions, with Trump's threats of major retaliation against large-scale asset sales indicating a new battleground in U.S.-Europe relations [3] - The Danish pension fund's decision to divest from U.S. bonds was attributed to concerns over U.S. fiscal instability, while Sweden's largest pension fund cited unpredictable U.S. policies as the reason for its reduction in holdings [7][8] Group 2 - Trump's aggressive rhetoric at the Davos Forum highlighted the seriousness of the U.S. response to European asset sales, suggesting that U.S. Treasury bonds are not to be taken lightly [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attempted to downplay the impact of Denmark's bond sell-off, indicating a desire to control the narrative and prevent other European nations from following suit [8] - The European financial landscape is characterized by a significant reliance on U.S. debt, making large-scale sell-offs risky and potentially destabilizing for the market [13] Group 3 - European countries are cautious in their financial maneuvers due to their heavy debt burdens and economic vulnerabilities, which limit their ability to respond aggressively to U.S. actions [14] - The recent bond sell-offs by private institutions in Europe are seen as tentative moves rather than declarations of financial war, aimed at gauging U.S. reactions [14] - In light of the U.S.-Europe tensions, European nations are seeking to strengthen ties with China, indicating a strategic pivot to diversify their economic partnerships [16]

Group 1 - European stock markets experienced a slight increase, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rising by 0.2%, driven by mining stocks following the upward trend in commodity prices [1][4] - Utility stocks also performed well, while the travel and leisure sector faced pressure due to flight disruptions in the US and the Middle East, along with cautious earnings guidance from Ryanair [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports to assess consumer demand resilience, especially after President Trump canceled tariffs related to Greenland on European countries, which helped the European benchmark index recover some losses [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with market focus shifting to the appointment of the new Fed Chair, which Trump is anticipated to announce soon [3][6] - Individual stock movements include a 6.1% increase in Nasdaq, as Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of the Finnish energy group to "overweight," indicating further upside potential after a strong rise in 2025 [3][6] - Conversely, Teleperformance saw a 7.7% decline in stock price after CIC Market Solutions downgraded its rating and target price [3][6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The internet stock index ETF increased by 1.07%, while the energy sector ETF rose by 0.79% [1] - The banking sector ETF saw a gain of 0.4%, whereas the technology sector ETF remained roughly flat [1] - The global technology stock index ETF declined by 0.22%, and the semiconductor ETF fell by 0.75% [1] - The biotechnology index ETF decreased by 1.02% [1] Group 2: ETF Specifics - The internet stock index ETF closed at 265.20, up by 2.79 (1.07%), with a trading volume of 9,567 shares and a market cap of 176.10 billion, down by 1.48% [2] - The energy sector ETF closed at 49.58, up by 0.39 (0.79%), with a trading volume of 241.30 million shares and a market cap of 124.16 billion, up by 10.89% [2] - The banking sector ETF closed at 63.04, up by 0.25 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 27,235 shares and a market cap of 48.80 billion, up by 3.88% [2] - The global technology stock index ETF closed at 106.99, down by 0.24 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 3,245 shares and a market cap of 14.98 billion, up by 1.90% [2] - The semiconductor ETF closed at 397.10, down by 2.99 (-0.75%), with a trading volume of 21.51 million shares and a market cap of 46.94 billion, up by 10.27% [2] - The biotechnology index ETF closed at 173.55, down by 1.78 (-1.02%), with a trading volume of 26,824 shares and a market cap of 137.80 billion [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is becoming a valuation anchor for global assets, with opportunities still present in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The commodity cycle is expected to follow the path of "precious metals - non-ferrous metals - energy," creating rotation opportunities within sectors [1][2] - The current precious metals market is not overvalued, with gold prices around $4,500 still within a reasonable range, indicating potential for further price increases in related commodities [2] Group 2 - The Chinese capital market is anticipated to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by clear policy directions focusing on technological innovation and consumption upgrades [4] - Historical data suggests that a strong start to the year for stock indices, such as a nearly 3% increase in the Hang Seng Index, correlates with a high probability of overall annual gains [4] - The market is showing signs of rotation towards large-cap financial stocks, which could significantly impact overall index performance due to their substantial weight [4] Group 3 - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are viewed as having investment value, with Hong Kong being one of the most attractively valued markets globally [5] - The phenomenon of H-shares trading at a premium to A-shares reflects a new pricing structure in the market, indicating potential for A-share appreciation [5] - The commodity cycle is expected to follow a specific sequence, starting with precious metals and extending to industrial metals and energy products, with strong performance in sectors like lithium carbonate [5]

Trade and Tariff Policy - The trade and tariff policies have led to a surge in factory construction and favorable trade agreements with multiple countries. However, overall factory spending is projected to decline in the first eight months of 2025 from its peak in 2024. Since the announcement of the "liberation day" tariffs in April, manufacturing jobs in the U.S. have been decreasing monthly. Tariffs have reduced the monthly trade deficit by 77% without causing inflation, with the trade deficit in October reaching its lowest level since 2009, down 39% from September. Inflation has cooled, but prices continue to rise [2][13]. Tax Reform - The economic policy enacted this summer as part of a major tax and spending plan includes tax cuts, tips tax reductions, and a permanent extension of 100% bonus depreciation for eligible properties, which is expected to encourage production relocation to the U.S. The majority of tax cut benefits will flow to middle and upper-income households [3][14]. Housing Affordability - The statement emphasizes that homes are built for people, not corporations, asserting that the U.S. will not become a nation of renters. Following an executive order targeting Wall Street buyers for driving up housing costs, there is a call for Congress to pass a ban on large institutional investors purchasing single-family homes [4][16]. Credit Card Rates - There is a renewed call for Congress to set a temporary cap of 10% on credit card interest rates for one year. The banking industry opposes this idea, arguing it would force them to significantly tighten credit support. Concerns have been raised about potential economic disaster if such a cap is implemented, although pilot programs are suggested in Vermont and Massachusetts, home states of supportive senators [5][17]. Gas Prices - Since returning to the White House, there has been a focus on lowering gas prices, with reports indicating that in many states, prices have reached or fallen below $1.99 per gallon. The national average gas price is currently $2.83 per gallon, down from $3.13 a year ago [6][7][18]. Energy Policy - There is a strong criticism of wind power, with a statement indicating that the U.S. is significantly developing nuclear energy [8][19]. Drug Prices - The healthcare policy aims to reduce drug costs in the U.S. by 90% or more, depending on the calculation method. A proposal known as "most favored nation" pricing is mentioned, which would allow the U.S. to purchase drugs at lower prices paid by other countries. An executive order from May aims to align U.S. drug prices with those of comparable developed countries [9][20]. Defense Industry - Efforts to restrict stock buybacks by defense companies are reiterated, with the intention that these funds will be used to build manufacturing plants to accelerate military equipment production [10][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased overall on a month - on - month basis, and the credit spreads of various industries also showed an overall upward trend [1]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - During January 12 - 16, 2026, a total of 342 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 331.801 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 6.25%. Among them, 156 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 171.1 billion yuan (a 26.40% month - on - month increase, accounting for 51.57% of the total); 162 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 92.801 billion yuan (a 33.19% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 27.97%); 24 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 67.9 billion yuan (a 78.68% month - on - month increase, accounting for 20.46%) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.67 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.11 years, urban investment bonds was 3.40 years, and financial bonds was 1.68 years [1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.17%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.04%, urban investment bonds was 2.33%, and financial bonds was 1.87% [2][17]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [23]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - By industry, in the Shenwan primary industries, the largest upward movement in the credit spread of AAA - rated industries was in real estate, up 6.9BP; the largest upward movement in the AA + - rated industries was in electrical equipment, up 12.3BP, and the largest downward movement was in leisure services, down 0.4BP; the largest upward movement in the AA - rated industries was in leisure services, up 21.6BP [3]. - By region for urban investment bonds, the largest upward movement in the AAA - rated credit spread was in Anhui, up 6.2BP; the largest upward movement in the AA + - rated was in Xinjiang, up 6BP, and the largest downward movement was in Henan, down 1.8BP; the largest upward movement in the AA - rated was in Shanghai, up 3BP, and the largest downward movement was in Guangxi, down 0.5BP [3]. - Overall, credit spreads in various sectors such as coal, steel, urban investment, non - urban investment, state - owned enterprises, and private enterprises showed an upward trend, while regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends [25]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1521.829 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.40%. The top three types of credit bonds in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 506.172 billion yuan (an 8.35% month - on - month increase, accounting for 33.26%); corporate bonds was 398.637 billion yuan (an 8.05% month - on - month increase, accounting for 26.19%); medium - term notes was 362.973 billion yuan (a 19.35% month - on - month increase, accounting for 23.85%) [4][27]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29].

Global Economic Outlook - In 2026, the global economy is expected to continue developing under a moderate slowdown, with emerging markets gradually replacing developed economies as the key growth drivers [1] - The monetary policy will shift from accommodative to a wait-and-see approach, focusing on structural differentiation, policy window management, and tail risk control as the main strategies for 2026 [1] Economic Projections for Major Economies - The US economy is projected to slow down from 2.6% in 2025 to a range of 1.8%-2.0% in 2026, driven by chronic consumption issues and AI-related private capital expenditure [2] - The Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.1% in 2026, with manufacturing PMI gradually recovering but facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and weak personal consumption [2] - Japan's growth is anticipated to remain low, with potential quarterly fluctuations, as real wages decline and small businesses face increasing operational pressures [2] - Emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region are showing mixed performance, with some exceeding expectations while others struggle with weak domestic demand and external pressures [2] Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.00%-3.25% [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a stable interest rate policy, with no clear plans for rate adjustments, while monitoring inflation close to the 2% target [3] - The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the benchmark rate at a low level of 0.5%, facing challenges in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3] - Emerging market central banks will continue a high-accommodation cycle, with varying policy rhythms based on local economic conditions [3] Investment Bank Perspectives - The IMF reports that global economic growth will continue to slow down moderately in 2026, with structural differentiation intensifying due to weakened growth momentum in developed economies [4] - OECD forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with the US economy expected to slow to 1.7% [5] - The Eurozone is projected to grow only 1%, indicating a relatively weak performance compared to other regions [5] Core Risk Overview - Geopolitical and trade risks include uncertainties from global tariff restructuring and regional conflicts that could disrupt supply chains and commodity prices [6] - Financial vulnerabilities are high in the Eurozone, with rising debt levels in emerging markets potentially leading to localized financial risks during interest rate adjustments [6] - Commodity price volatility, particularly in energy and food sectors, may disrupt central bank policy rhythms due to external factors like geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather [6] Summary - Globalization is significantly impacted by tariff conflicts, leading to disruptions in global trade chains and a high probability of economic slowdown [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, but the interplay between the Fed and the US government may heighten global financial risks [7] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are likely to benefit, with potential prices reaching between $5000-$5200, while the dollar index may decline below 90 [7] - Commodity markets show mixed signals, with energy prices struggling but potential rebounds in the second half of the year, while non-ferrous metals may rise due to increased global electricity demand and AI development [7]

Core Insights - Estonia's industrial output increased by 3.4% year-on-year in November 2025, according to the Estonian Statistics Office [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The mining sector experienced a significant growth of 10% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 4.5% year-on-year [1] - The energy sector, however, faced a decline of 8.7% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-sectors - The production of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers surged by 57.7% year-on-year [1] - The computer and electronic equipment manufacturing sector grew by 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The wood processing industry recorded a modest growth of 1% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, the furniture manufacturing sector declined by 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The food manufacturing sector also saw a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [1] - The metal products manufacturing sector experienced a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The electrical equipment manufacturing sector had a minimal decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [1]