近期，欧盟正筹备第19轮对俄制裁，核心内容涉及六家俄罗斯银行和能源企业，并扩展至支付系统、信用卡网络及加密货币平台，以压缩俄罗斯对外金融通 道。 报道称，对非友好国家的啤酒关税从每升1欧元提高至1.5欧元。此外，苹果酒、梨酒及其他起泡饮料的关税从22.5%提高至30%。 俄新社9月13日报道，俄罗斯政府提高对非友好国家麦芽啤酒和苹果酒的进口关税。该决议于9月10日签署，自正式公布之日起7天后生效。 2025年初，俄总统普京要求列明2022年2月22日后在俄境内中止或缩减经营活动的非友好国家人员名单，并持续更新这一名单，每季度进行一次报告。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council issued the revised "Three North" project overall plan, which aims to guide regions in promoting high-quality development through three major battles from 2021 to 2030 and further phases until 2050 [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that the average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, a decrease from the previous month and down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a historical low [1] - The total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, which is considered reasonable and manageable [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan at the end of August, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% [2] - The total social financing scale in China reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the classification supervision regulations for futures companies to enhance compliance and risk management [3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines for the construction of electricity spot markets, supporting the integration of renewable energy into the market [4] - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration established management measures for the domestic duty-free tobacco market, requiring compliance with legal pricing regulations [5] - The International Monetary Fund warned Romania about the sustainability of its fiscal policy, predicting public debt could approach 70% of GDP by 2030 without further fiscal measures [7]

Group 1 - The 10th "Belt and Road" Summit held in Hong Kong concluded with a record of 45 cooperation memorandums signed, involving over 6,200 participants from more than 70 countries and regions [1][3] - The cooperation memorandums cover various sectors including aviation, energy, finance, infrastructure, and technology, involving regions such as mainland China, Hong Kong, ASEAN countries, the Middle East, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States [1][3] - The summit showcased over 300 investment projects and facilitated more than 800 one-on-one project matching sessions, promoting several "small but beautiful" livelihood projects, such as a joint venture between an Indonesian company and a Hong Kong firm in agricultural technology [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government emphasized a "change-seeking" spirit to enhance its role as a bridge and "super value-added" player in the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - Recent agreements and transactions related to the Belt and Road Initiative reached nearly $1 billion in total value, highlighting Hong Kong's position as an ideal hub for the initiative [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Core Insights - The industrial sector in Côte d'Ivoire is projected to achieve a 25% year-on-year revenue growth by June 2025, showing significant improvement compared to 2024 [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The growth is primarily driven by four industries: mining, energy, manufacturing, and environmental sectors [1] - The mining sector is expected to see a remarkable growth of 68.3% due to increased oil, gas, and metal mining activities [1] - The energy sector is projected to grow by 9% [1] - Manufacturing is anticipated to grow at a rate of 7.4%, supported by tobacco products, textiles, chemicals, metallurgy, casting products, electrical equipment, and machinery maintenance and installation [1] - The environmental sector shows the lowest growth at 4.9%, mainly driven by waste collection and processing activities [1] Group 2: Government Initiatives - The government is committed to transforming the economic structure through industrialization and encouraging private sector participation [1] - Plans are in place to establish value chains that promote national development and enhance support for leading domestic enterprises [1] - The government aims to create financing programs to support small and medium-sized enterprises, startups, and young entrepreneurs [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will initiate public consultation for the USMCA in the coming weeks, marking the first formal step towards renegotiation [1] - The consultation process must be completed by October 4, 2023, as mandated by the law governing the agreement [1] - The USMCA includes a mandatory six-year review clause, with the first trilateral review meeting scheduled for no later than July 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The USMCA is considered a significant trade achievement of the Trump administration, replacing NAFTA, which was criticized for causing job losses in the U.S. [2] - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada and Mexico have undermined the effectiveness of the USMCA, particularly affecting the automotive, steel, aluminum, and lumber industries [2] Group 3 - The tariffs serve to increase leverage for the U.S. in the renegotiation process, disrupting North America's complex supply chains, especially in the automotive sector [3] - Recent discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum focused on cross-border security, which is seen as a prerequisite for USMCA renegotiation [3] - Mexico is highly sensitive to the negotiation outcomes, as 80% of its exports go to the U.S., and the U.S. has extended tariffs on Mexican goods for an additional 90 days [3] Group 4 - The U.S. has criticized Mexico's policies in energy, telecommunications, agriculture, and intellectual property, highlighting issues such as state-owned enterprise bias and lack of fair competition [4] - Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged that the upcoming reviews and negotiations will be challenging but emphasized the need for cooperation among the three countries to maintain North America's competitiveness [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets: Since August, the US has raised tariffs, with its economy remaining resilient, inflation rising, and employment slowing unexpectedly. The Fed has hinted at rate cuts, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and a slight depreciation of the US dollar. The eurozone economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation remaining moderate, and the euro is expected to appreciate slightly against the US dollar. Japan's economy presents a mixed picture, with tariffs suppressing exports and core inflation cooling, and the yen is expected to fluctuate slightly against the US dollar. The narrowing of the Sino-US yield spread, the release of domestic entities' foreign exchange settlement demand, and the inflow of foreign capital into the domestic stock market have led to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and it is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [3]. - Macroeconomic fundamentals: In July, both demand and production converged, with the demand side experiencing a larger decline, partly due to falling prices. The production side showed a slight decline, indicating the implementation of anti-involution policies, but overall, it remained resilient. Export data slightly exceeded expectations, but there is downward pressure in the future. The bond market has largely anticipated the weakness in aggregate demand but is sensitive to the upward shift in the price center. As the inflation center rises, the bottom of bond yields will gradually increase [3]. - Monetary policy and liquidity: Since August, the central bank has made net injections, and the short-term capital price center has shifted downward. Looking ahead, the stock market may experience short-term fluctuations, and there are concerns about market overheating and capital idling. The supply of government bonds will remain high, and there will be pressure on the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, leading to fluctuations in the end-of-quarter capital market. Overall, although there are more disturbances in the capital market, the downward trend in financing costs continues, and liquidity does not have a basis for a trend tightening [4]. - Interest rate bond strategy: Since August, bond yields have first declined and then risen due to fluctuations in industrial product prices under anti-involution policies. Looking ahead, aggregate demand remains weak, but the bond market's reaction to fundamentals is gradually dulling. There are increasing interference factors in the bond market, including the impact of anti-involution policies on prices, the stock market's rise, and the increase in bond interest income tax. However, given the weak demand, the possibility of a significant increase in interest rates is low, and the interest rate center is expected to rise, with the oscillation range also shifting upward. Trading desks can seize repair opportunities when interest rates rise, while allocation desks can intervene when interest rates reach the upper limit of the range, and medium- and long-term bonds are more valuable for allocation [4]. - Credit bond strategy: In August, the "stock-bond seesaw" effect continued to suppress the bond market, and the redemption pressure of funds intensified the volatility of long-term interest rates. As the bond market adjusts, the cost-effectiveness of medium- and high-grade credit bonds with a maturity of three years has increased, but the credit spread is still relatively low. It is recommended to focus on defensive strategies, appropriately reduce duration, and pay attention to coupon opportunities for bonds with a maturity of less than three years. The central bank has taken measures to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment, and the pressure on further significant price increases for certificates of deposit may be controllable [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Overseas Markets - US economic situation: Since August, the US manufacturing and service sectors have expanded significantly. However, the employment market has slowed unexpectedly, and core inflation has continued to rise. The Fed is likely to implement a preventive 25-basis-point rate cut in September. The Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet, leading to a marginal convergence of US dollar liquidity. The primary demand for US Treasury bonds has weakened again, and long-term Treasury bond yields face upward pressure. The US dollar is expected to depreciate slightly in the short term [8][10][16]. - Eurozone economic situation: The eurozone economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation remaining moderate. The euro has appreciated against the US dollar and is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [31][34]. - Japanese economic situation: Japan's economy presents a mixed picture, with external challenges increasing and core inflation cooling. The yen has appreciated against the US dollar and is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [39][44]. - RMB exchange rate situation: Since July, the inversion of the Sino-US Treasury yield spread has gradually decreased, and domestic entities' foreign exchange settlement demand has continued to be released. The RMB has appreciated slightly against the US dollar and is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [49][55]. - Gold market situation: In August, the price of gold fluctuated upward within a range. Non-commercial net long positions decreased slightly, while gold ETFs continued to flow in. Emerging central banks continued to purchase gold, supporting the medium- and long-term price of gold. It is expected that the price of gold will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [58][65]. Part II: Domestic Macroeconomy - Investment situation: From January to July, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline, with the growth rates of real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment all falling. Real estate investment is still in the process of bottoming out, and the growth rate of real estate sales has slightly rebounded, while the land transaction premium rate has decreased. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the price increase is not well supported [71][75][80]. - Consumption situation: In July, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline, mainly due to the diminishing effect of subsidies and the decline in automobile consumption [83]. - Export situation: From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports was 6.1%, and the growth rate in July was 7.2%, showing strong resilience. However, due to factors such as the increase in tariffs and the overdraft effect of pre-exporting, the export growth rate is expected to decline in the future [86]. - Production situation: From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.3%, showing a slight slowdown. The operating rates of the steel and coal industries have generally increased [90][93]. - Employment situation: In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate increased seasonally, and the employment demand of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased rapidly [96]. - Inflation situation: In July, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was 0%, and the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was 0.8%, showing an upward trend. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI stopped falling, and it is expected that the decline will gradually narrow in the future [99][102]. - VAT new policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. This policy will lead to an increase in the spread between new and old bonds, benefit interbank certificates of deposit and credit bonds, and have an impact on financial institutions [103][104][106]. Part III: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - Liquidity review: In August, the central bank made net injections, and the short-term capital price center shifted downward, while the long-term capital price center changed little. The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased in the middle and late August. The growth rate of M1 and M2 exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of social financing increased [116][121][130]. - Liquidity outlook: In September, the supply of government bonds is expected to remain high, and the maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit is large, leading to increased disturbances in the end-of-quarter capital market. However, given the weak demand, the downward trend in financing costs continues, and liquidity does not have a basis for a trend tightening [133]. Part IV: Interest Rate Bond Strategy - Interest rate bond trend: Since August, bond yields have generally shown an upward trend, mainly due to the rise of the stock market and the increase in bond interest income tax. The yield curve has become steeper, and the medium- and long-term spreads are relatively large [137][138][142]. - Investment strategy: Trading desks can seize repair opportunities when interest rates rise, while allocation desks can intervene when interest rates reach the upper limit of the range, and medium- and long-term bonds are more valuable for allocation [4].

Group 1: Financial Impact on Europe - The EU has become the largest financial contributor to Ukraine, with total aid surpassing €168.9 billion, including €47 billion approved in August 2025 [1][3] - The costs associated with accommodating over 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees and energy subsidies have exceeded €300 billion [1] - The EU has spent €87 billion on refugee support and €220 billion on energy subsidies, indicating a significant financial strain on European taxpayers [3] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Germany's economic growth rate was only 0.3% in Q2 2025, highlighting the difficulty in addressing the growing fiscal deficit [5] - The ongoing conflict has led to a severe energy supply crisis in Europe, particularly affecting Hungary and Slovakia, with Hungary experiencing a 65% interruption in crude oil supply [7][8] - The EU's plans to reduce dependency on Russian oil and gas by 2026 and 2028, respectively, are increasingly challenged by the escalating conflict [8] Group 3: Trade and Internal Division - A new trade agreement from the U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods while requiring the EU to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products by 2028 [8][10] - Internal divisions within the EU are becoming more pronounced, with Hungary's Prime Minister openly opposing aid to Ukraine and Poland's farmers protesting against EU support [10][12] Group 4: Strategic Autonomy and Security Dependence - Despite calls for "strategic autonomy," the EU remains heavily reliant on U.S. influence for security matters, as highlighted by President Macron's proposal for a four-party negotiation framework [12][14] - The EU's inability to assert its own security interests has been underscored by the ongoing conflict and the need for U.S. involvement [12][14] Group 5: Future Outlook - Ukraine's national debt has surged to 150% of its GDP, with a projected economic contraction of 7% in 2025, necessitating continued EU support to prevent a fiscal collapse [16][17] - The EU faces rising energy prices, accelerated deindustrialization, and increased social burdens, complicating its economic recovery [17][19] - The European Commission's plan to establish a €50 billion reconstruction fund requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states, indicating challenges in reaching consensus on effective solutions [19]

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 18.56%, with 230 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of September 1, southbound funds held a total of 4,654.29 million shares, accounting for 18.56% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a total market value of 58,913.83 million HKD, representing 14.18% of the total market value [1] - The stocks with the highest shareholding ratios by southbound funds include China Telecom at 74.09%, followed by Gree Power at 70.24% and China Shenhua at 67.86% [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, financial, and industrial sectors, with 49, 34, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - The top stocks with high shareholding ratios include China Telecom (74.09%), Gree Power (70.24%), and China Shenhua (67.86%), among others [2][3] - A significant portion of the stocks with high southbound fund holdings are AH concept stocks, with 123 out of 230 stocks (53.48%) having a shareholding ratio over 20% being AH stocks [1]

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 18.57%, with 229 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of August 29, southbound funds held a total of 4,656.91 million shares, accounting for 18.57% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a total market value of 58,107.02 billion HKD, representing 14.21% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 10,298.29 million shares held, accounting for 74.20% of the issued shares [2] Group 2 - Southbound funds' high shareholding stocks are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, financial, and industrial sectors, with 48, 34, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - Among the stocks with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20%, 123 are AH concept stocks, accounting for 53.71% [1] - The shareholding ratios of notable stocks include China Telecom (74.20%), Green Power Environmental (70.03%), and China Shenhua (67.94%) [2][3]