Workflow
证券业
icon
Search documents
品种久期跟踪:二级债久期创年内新高
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 09:30
截至 7 月 18 日,城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.40 年、3.52 年,均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平,商业银行债中,二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.42 年、3.67 年、2.48 年, 二级资本债和一般商金债久期均处于高位;从其余金融债来看,证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债 久期分别为 1.57 年、1.78 年、3.45 年、1.28 年,其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位,租赁公司债位于 较高历史分位。 城投债:城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.40 年附近。其中,广东地级市、陕西省级城投债久期超 4.5 年,河北省 级城投债成交久期缩短至 0.44 年附近。同时,江苏地级市、福建地级市、浙江区县级、重庆区县级等区域城投债久 期历史分位数已逾 90%,江苏区县级城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债:产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短,总体处于 3.52 年附近,医药生物行业成交久期缩短至 2.88 年, 建筑装饰行业成交久期拉长至 4.45 年。此外,食品饮料行业成交久期处于较低历史分位,公用事业 ...
【笔记20250718— 防内卷,防三拍】
债券笔记· 2025-07-20 07:09
当一个快速上涨是因为新闻刺激而涨时,那么,此时的情绪一定是疯狂的,交易一定是拥挤的,价格也 一定会因为情绪而偏离其应有价值趋势。我们要, 在市场犹豫时坚定,在市场坚定时犹豫。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250718— 防内卷,防三拍(-股市偏强+央行就"取消质押券冻结"征求意见+资金面均衡偏松= 微上)】 资金面均衡偏松,长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1875亿元7天期逆回购操作,今日有847亿元逆回购到期,净投放1028亿元。 资金面均衡偏松,资金利率小幅回落,DR001在1.46%附近,DR007在1.51%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.07.18) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成义章占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.49 | | | 1.80 | 0 ...
固收周报20250720:关于转债市场下半年的三点担忧-20250720
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-20 06:35
证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250720 关于转债市场下半年的三点担忧 2025 年 07 月 20 日 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 (20250714-20250718)》 2025-07-19 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪(20250714- 20250718)》 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书:S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书:S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2025-07-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周(0714-0718)海外整体延续前周方向,美债跌美股平,美债短端 上行幅度弱于长端,我们考虑一方面市场担忧特朗普政府关税政策终将 对物价带来实质性的影响,另一方面稳定币多以短期美债(或现金)作 为储备,这将有力支撑美债短端的下限。我们认为,目前全球面临"再 全球化"过程中区域供需不平衡的严峻挑战,所引发的区域性通缩(供 过于求)、通胀(供不应求)让全球央行较 ...
【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市波动或加大,重视回调机遇(2025年7月)
招商银行研究· 2025-07-18 09:49
作者:招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债墓>中长期债墓>短债基金>高 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指赛 > 短信基金> | | 回顾 | 等级同业存单指基>现金管理 | 中长期债墓 > 现金管理 | | | 近一个月国内"反内卷"预期强化+ | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | | 美国对等关税"变相"延后抬升市场 | | | 债市回顾 | | 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 风险偏好,资金面整体仍相对缓和, | 旬小幅回调,6月回归震荡,7月微幅回调。 | | | 短债强于长债,信用债强于利率债。 | | | 行业事件跟踪 | | 1、7 月 11 日,国家金融监督管理总局发布《 金融机构产品适当性管理办法》,旨在 | | | 进一步规范金融机构适当性管理,加强金融消费者权益保护。 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | 债市展望 | -同业存单:预计利率维持稳定。 | | | | ...
特朗普对美联储的每一次“骂街” 都在成为黄金的“燃料”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-18 09:23
此前房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特(William Pulte)还帮助散布了关于鲍威尔正考虑辞职的虚 假谣言。 他在一份官方声明中说,"有报道称鲍威尔正考虑辞职,我对此感到鼓舞。我认为这对美国来说将是正 确的决定,经济将会蓬勃发展。" 另据透露,特朗普周二与共和党议员讨论了可能解雇鲍威尔的问题,但他后来又收回了说法,称这"极 不可能"。 特朗普从不羞于表达他对鲍威尔的不满,因为鲍威尔维持着美联储当前的中性货币政策立场。特朗普最 近表示,美联储应迅速降息300个基点,这将使联邦基金利率处于1.25%至1.50%的区间。 在过去几个月里,特朗普发起了人身攻击,称鲍威尔为"笨蛋"、"白痴"、"蠢货",并给他起了个绰号 叫"太迟先生"。然而,这种言辞在近几天有所加剧。 美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔之间不断升级的政治紧张关系正在动摇投资者的信心,分析师警告 称,对央行独立性的任何打击都可能导致金价飙升。 围绕美联储领导层的不确定性正在给市场注入新的波动性,分析师表示,随着对美联储独立性的担忧加 剧,这种环境只会恶化。 美联储恐丧失"超能力" 在周四发布的一份报告中,瑞讯银行(Swissquote Bank)高 ...
6月金融数据点评:新增社融及信贷均超预期
宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/7/17 6月金融数据点评—— 新增社融及信贷均超预期 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师: 分析师登记编号: 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师: 分析师登记编号: 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、社融保持超预期扩张 2、M1同比明显上行 ➢ 中国6月M2同比8.3%,预期8.1%,前值7.9%;M1同比4.6%,前值2.3% 。 图表1:金融数据主要分项 | 单位:亿元 | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 41993 | 2 ...
今日,两场重要发布会!盘前重要消息一览
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-18 00:24
Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the consumption tax threshold for super luxury cars from 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan, effective from July 20, 2025. This change differentiates between various power types, with electric and fuel cell vehicles facing lower tax burdens compared to those with cylinder capacity [6][8] - The agricultural sector is seeing continuous reform, with the second round of land contracts extended for an additional 30 years in seven provinces. There are nearly 4 million family farms and over 2.1 million farmer cooperatives in operation [6][8] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," aimed at significant legislative reform for cryptocurrency regulation, with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against. This bill is expected to be signed into law by President Trump [8][9] Group 2 - Hangzhou Bank reported a net profit of 11.662 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.67% [11] - Longhua Group received a designated order from a domestic new energy vehicle client, with an estimated total sales amount of approximately 235 million yuan [11] - Dongfang Yuhong's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to acquire 100% of Construmart for 123 million USD [11] - Red Tower Securities intends to repurchase company shares worth between 100 million and 200 million yuan [11] - Helen Piano's actual controller is planning a change of control, leading to a stock suspension starting July 18 [11] - ST Lifang reported no significant changes in its operational situation or external environment [11] - Mould Technology received a project designation for exterior parts, with an expected total sales of 2.044 billion yuan [11] - Liangpinpuzi's controlling shareholder is set to change to Changjiang Guomao, with stock resuming trading on July 18 [11] Group 3 - Guotai Junan highlights a new growth phase for the data center industry, driven by the digital economy and AI advancements, indicating a significant uptick in industry orders [17] - Huayuan Securities notes that coal power approvals remain high, with increasing peak load demands, suggesting a sustained need for coal power replacements and upgrades [18]
新华财经早报:7月18日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 00:10
Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the consumption tax policy for super-luxury cars, raising the threshold for taxation to 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) from the previous 1.3 million yuan [1] Group 2: Central Enterprises Performance - In the first half of 2025, central enterprises achieved a value-added output of 5.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in labor productivity of 2.3% to 816,000 yuan per person [1] - Research and development expenditure by central enterprises reached 413.98 billion yuan, and fixed asset investment totaled 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Railway Passenger Growth - In the first half of 2025, the national railway transported 2.24 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The average daily operation of passenger trains increased by 7.5% to 11,183 trains [1] Group 4: Intellectual Property Developments - The industrialization rate of invention patents in China rose from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024, with the annual import and export total of intellectual property usage fees increasing from 319.44 billion yuan to 398.71 billion yuan, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.7% [1] Group 5: Agricultural and Rural Economic Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture reported ongoing rural reforms, including a 30-year extension of the second round of land contracts, with nearly 4 million family farms and over 2.1 million farmer cooperatives established [1] Group 6: Corporate Announcements - Hangzhou Bank reported a net profit increase of 16.67% year-on-year to 11.662 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Zhongwei Company expects a revenue of approximately 4.961 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 43.88% [6]
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-07-17)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-17 08:30
国外 1. 花旗:予恒指今年年底目标25000点,呼吁增持中国互联网、科技及消费板块 花旗发表亚股策略报告表示,尽管宏观环境波动,亚洲股市表现仍优于全球同行,美国关税问题使短期 展望不明朗,但花旗股票策略师对中期前景仍持建设性看法,该行料MSCI亚洲(不包括日本)指数至 2026年中将有约7%的回报,此相当预测市盈率14倍,该行在亚股中看好中国及韩国市场,其企业每股 盈测修订趋势较佳、估值合理,且受益于结构性主题(人工智能、公司治理改革)。该行予恒指于今年年 底目标25000点、明年年中目标更达26000点,予沪深300指数于今年年底目标4200点、明年年中目标达 4350点,MSCI中国指数今年年底目标79点、明年年中目标82点。花旗称,MSCI中国行业权重模型投资 组合中,该行将消费板块从中性上调至增持,倾向于国内相关股票并为潜在的政府刺激做准备;将运输 板块从增持下调至中性,因全球货运量在美国贸易关税增加的背景下存在下行风险。该行对中国互联 网、科技及消费板块予增持评级。 2. 美银:预计美联储在明年之前不会降息 4. 惠誉:财政政策是日本信用评级的主要风险 惠誉评级负责日本主权评级的分析师Krisja ...
中国股市,突传重磅!
券商中国· 2025-07-17 06:43
Group 1 - The stock market's profitability has improved significantly in recent trading days due to optimized market structure [1] - Foreign investment continues to show strong interest in Chinese assets, with a recent survey indicating a rebound in interest from international investment institutions managing approximately $27 trillion in assets [2] - Citigroup has upgraded the ratings for the Chinese and South Korean stock markets to "overweight" while downgrading India's stock market rating to "neutral" [4][5] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts a target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index by the end of this year and 26,000 points by mid-next year, with the CSI 300 Index targets set at 4,200 points and 4,350 points respectively [5][6] - The bank expects a moderate impact from potential stimulus measures, with sectors such as consumption, internet, raw materials, and technology likely to benefit more [5] - The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 9.9 times, slightly below the historical average of 10.3 times [6] Group 3 - The investment sentiment towards Chinese assets has become notably positive, with significant inflows from foreign investors, including a $50 million investment mandate for Chinese assets from a German pension fund [8] - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by a weak dollar cycle, supportive capital market policies, and continued liquidity easing [9] - The "new smart medicine" sector, representing emerging investment opportunities, is highlighted as a key focus for investors this year [9]