Core Insights - The report indicates a continued net outflow of tracked funds in the secondary market, with a slight net inflow in financing funds but ongoing net outflows in ETFs. The financial data for February shows significant structural differences, with government bonds contributing the main increment while household credit weakened. Additionally, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been pushed back to December, with only one cut anticipated this year [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In February, the total social financing increased by 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans being the main driver of improvement, while household loans continued to face pressure. Specifically, household loans contracted, with short-term loans decreasing by 195.2 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 66.5 billion yuan [9][12]. - The M2 growth rate remained at 9.0%, while M1 growth increased to 5.9%, up by 1.0 percentage point from January. This increase in M1 is attributed to high levels of corporate foreign exchange settlements and a low base effect [4][9]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Fund Supply - The report highlights that the secondary market continues to experience net outflows, with a financing balance increase and net inflow of 56.0 billion yuan in financing funds. However, ETFs saw a net outflow of 77.4 billion yuan [4][23]. - New equity public funds increased by 17.08 billion units, while the overall market financing balance reached 26,332.6 billion yuan as of March 13 [23][29]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Preferences - Market sentiment improved, with an increase in trading activity for financing funds and a decrease in equity risk premiums. The VIX index fell, indicating improved risk appetite in overseas markets [4][38]. - In terms of industry preferences, utilities, electric equipment, and basic chemicals attracted significant net inflows, while sectors like oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, and media experienced substantial net outflows [45][47]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory measures include the People's Bank of China emphasizing risk prevention and high-quality development in the financial sector, alongside new proposals for bank capital regulation to encourage lending activities [13][14]. - The report also notes the introduction of regulations aimed at improving transparency in personal loan interest disclosures, which is expected to enhance consumer protection in the financial sector [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy showed a mixed performance in the first two months of 2026. Some indicators such as industrial added - value and service production index improved, while real - estate related indicators remained weak [2][18]. - The situation in the Middle East, especially the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has had a significant impact on the global energy and commodity markets, leading to supply disruptions and price fluctuations [11]. - The Sino - US economic and trade consultations are ongoing, and both sides are working towards promoting bilateral economic and trade relations [4][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, with M0, M1, and M2 showing year - on - year growth [1]. - CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment from January to February 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year [1][2]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic data for the first two months of 2026 showed that fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added - value increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and service production index increased by 5.2% year - on - year. However, real - estate investment and sales declined [2]. - Many banks tightened or exited the agency business of personal precious metals on the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2]. - The US launched a 301 investigation against 60 economies including China, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are ongoing [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley maintains the prediction that the Fed will restart interest rate cuts in June and cut rates again in September [5]. - Indonesia is considering imposing a "windfall tax" on commodities [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - The price of refined indium in China has been rising rapidly since 2026, more than doubling compared to the beginning of 2025 [6]. - Guinea is discussing controlling the supply of bauxite to protect against price drops [6]. - Bahrain Aluminium is shutting down 3 electrolytic aluminium production lines, accounting for 19% of its total annual capacity [6]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the aluminium industry chain, and the aluminium price may rise due to supply contraction [7]. - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased on March 16, 2026 [8]. - Metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange showed different trends on March 13, 2026 [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - India's JSW Steel Company obtained a coking coal mining project in Mozambique [9]. - From January to February 2026, the production of raw coal was stable, and the production of crude oil increased year - on - year [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to have over 100 million kilowatts of installed capacity for offshore wind power, and the installed capacity will double compared to the end of 2025 [10][24]. - International oil prices fluctuated after the US attack on Iran, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to supply disruptions and price increases [10][11]. - The EU plans to gradually phase out Russian oil [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Zhejiang issued a plan for precise fertilization of grain and oil crops to improve yields and efficiency [12]. - The quota for cotton import under the sliding - scale duty for processing trade in 2026 is 300,000 tons [12]. - Indonesia may impose additional tariffs on some commodities such as palm oil [13]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the global fertilizer supply chain, and urea prices have risen by about 30% [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 16, 2026, the central bank conducted 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan [14]. - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders on March 19, 2026, with an operation volume of 70 billion yuan for 21 - day and 180 billion yuan for 3 - month terms [14]. 3.3.2 Important News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Paris aimed to promote bilateral economic and trade relations [15][19]. - The State Council emphasized key tasks for economic and social development in 2026 and the "15th Five - Year Plan" [16]. - Shanghai adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30% [16]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration focused on risk resolution in key areas [17]. - China's economic indicators in the first two months of 2026 showed an overall positive trend [18]. - Many A - share companies' 2025 annual reports showed that emerging industries performed well [20]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources proposed to use existing land resources for real - estate development [20]. - China's foreign exchange market was generally stable in February 2026 [21]. - Many banks redeemed high - interest preferred stocks, causing difficulties in asset substitution [22]. - The wind power sector in the A - share market performed well [24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The Chinese bond market weakened, with yields of major interest - rate bonds rising and bond futures falling [27]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [27]. - The convertible bond index declined, and different convertible bonds had different price changes [28]. - Money market interest rates showed mixed trends [28]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds declined [30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 16, 2026, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated by 50 points [31]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income suggested a cautious attitude towards convertible bonds, waiting for opportunities, and focusing on certain sectors [32]. - Huatai Fixed - income also analyzed the transformation of land resources and the situation of the bond market [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that government bonds continued to play an important role in social financing growth, and the credit growth rate was expected to be around 7% - 8% in 2026 [33]. - Xingzheng Fixed - income analyzed the situation of convertible bonds, emphasizing the importance of equity judgment [33]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 17, 2026, 251 bonds will be listed, 178 bonds will be issued, 91 bonds will be paid, and 266 bonds will pay principal and interest [34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market recovered after a decline, with some sectors performing well and some performing poorly [35]. - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded strongly, with chip and pharmaceutical stocks leading the rise [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week (March 9 - March 13), credit bond yields declined, but the repair amplitude was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads widened passively. The February inflation and January - February import and export data released this week disturbed market expectations. Due to the rebound in February CPI and January - February import and export data, market concerns about inflation pressure increased, and bond market sentiment weakened temporarily. Meanwhile, the overall capital environment was stable, the fluctuation of money market interest rates was limited, which provided a certain buffer for the bond market. The equity market is still in a volatile range, and the overall risk preference has not changed much, so its impact on the bond market is relatively limited [2][11]. - Currently, the yield curve forms a relatively obvious convex point around the 4 - year term. Institutions with relatively stable liability ends can pay attention to the riding value of 4 - year bonds. In the scenario where the yield curve rises by 20BP, 4 - year AA - rated medium - short notes, 4 - year AA and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, and 4 - year AAA - and AA + - rated bank perpetual bonds are expected to maintain positive returns or only have small drawdowns during the holding period, with relatively strong anti - volatility ability. For 7 - year urban investment bonds, caution should be exercised, and for 7 - year secondary perpetual bonds, allocation - type funds can choose the opportunity to layout after market adjustments [13][14]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds has obvious seasonal characteristics. Although there is still a high maturity and redemption scale of secondary perpetual bonds this year, and the renewal demand still exists, in the context of the continuous expansion of capital replenishment channels, commercial banks' dependence on secondary perpetual bonds has decreased, and the overall future supply scale may decline [17][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Focus on Convex Point Riding, and the Supply of Secondary Perpetual Bonds May Decline - Market situation: This week, credit bond yields declined, but the repair amplitude was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads widened passively. The February inflation and January - February import and export data disturbed market expectations, and bond market sentiment weakened temporarily. The equity market was in a volatile range, and its impact on the bond market was relatively limited [2][11]. - Investment strategy: The current yield curve forms a convex point around the 4 - year term. In the case of a 3 - month holding period and the curve shape remaining unchanged, the holding - period returns of 4 - year bonds are generally higher than those of 5 - year bonds of the same rating. Institutions with relatively stable liability ends can pay attention to their riding value. In the scenario where the yield curve rises by 20BP, 4 - year AA - rated medium - short notes, 4 - year AA and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, and 4 - year AAA - and AA + - rated bank perpetual bonds have relatively strong anti - volatility ability. For 7 - year urban investment bonds, caution should be exercised, and for 7 - year secondary perpetual bonds, allocation - type funds can choose the opportunity to layout after market adjustments [13][14]. - Supply situation: The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds has obvious seasonal characteristics. This year, secondary perpetual bonds are still in a peak maturity stage, with an expected annual maturity and redemption scale of about 1.18 trillion yuan, and banks still have a certain renewal demand. However, in the long - term, the net financing scale of secondary perpetual bonds has been declining in recent years. With the diversification of bank capital replenishment channels, the dependence of commercial banks on secondary perpetual bonds has decreased, and the future supply scale may decline [17][18]. 3.2. Review of the Quantity and Price of Inter - bank Liquidity - This week (March 9 - March 13), the volume of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market decreased and the price increased. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 260.2 billion yuan from last week, and the trading volume was in the top 2.9% of the range since 2020. The median R001 was 1.39%, an increase of 4bp from last week, and the repurchase interest rate was in the bottom 21% of the range since 2020. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 6.7bp, a decrease of 0.6bp from last week; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 11.0bp, an increase of 20.3bp from last week, and the exchange financing cost was higher than that of the inter - bank [38][40]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate increased this week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.50%, an increase of 2.1bp from last week, and the interest rate was in the bottom 5% of the range since 2020. The median 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.56%, and the interest rate was in the bottom 4% of the range since 2020 [43]. 3.3. Review of the Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Market - On March 13, SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.32%, 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.54%, 1.56%, 1.57%, and 1.58% respectively. Compared with March 6, the overnight and above - term quotes changed by 0bp, 5bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 1bp respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.51%, 1.52%, 1.53% respectively. Compared with March 6, the 1 - month and above - term yields changed by 1bp, 0bp, - 1bp, - 1bp, - 2bp respectively [44]. - This week, the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 842.5 billion yuan (excluding those whose actual raised amounts have not been disclosed as of March 13), an increase of 125.2 billion yuan from last week. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month terms increased, while the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year terms decreased [48]. - On March 13, the 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate was 1.50%, an increase of 3.11bp from last week. The yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 1.75bp from last week, and the spread between the two was 3bp, a narrowing of 5bp from last week [50]. 3.4. Credit Bond Issuance Situation 3.4.1. Issuance Volume and Net Financing - This week (March 9 - March 13), the supply of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The issuance of credit bonds was 350.333 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.21% and an increase of 96.211 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The net financing of credit bonds decreased by 36.707 billion yuan month - on - month and increased by 61.262 billion yuan year - on - year. In terms of types, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 43.783 billion yuan, 21.115 billion yuan, and increased by 28.190 billion yuan respectively month - on - month [55]. 3.4.2. Issuance Cost - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased this week. The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.81%, a decrease of 6bp from last week. In terms of types, the average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 13bp, 6bp, and increased by 2bp respectively month - on - month; in terms of ratings, the average issuance interest rates of AA, AA +, and AAA decreased by 16bp, 2bp, and 11bp respectively month - on - month [66]. 3.4.3. Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds increased this week. The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.97 years, an increase of 0.02 years from last week. In terms of types, the issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds increased by 0.29 years, decreased by 0.46 years, and increased by 0.24 years respectively month - on - month [68]. 3.4.4. Cancellation of Issuance - This week, the number of cancelled credit bond issuances was the same as last week, and the scale decreased. A total of 12 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, the same as last week, and the total cancelled issuance scale was 7.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.46 billion yuan from last week [69]. 3.5. Credit Bond Transaction and Valuation Situation 3.5.1. Transaction Volume - This week (March 9 - March 13), the total transaction volume of credit bonds was 1,435 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3 billion yuan from last week. In terms of categories, commercial bank bonds and non - bank financial bonds in financial bonds traded 455.4 billion yuan and 90 billion yuan respectively. Medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, directional instruments, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds traded 333 billion yuan, 122.2 billion yuan, 55.4 billion yuan, 18.4 billion yuan, and 360.8 billion yuan respectively. Compared with last week, the trading volumes of various varieties showed mixed trends. The trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 15.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by 10.3 billion yuan, while the trading volumes of bank perpetual bonds and bank secondary capital bonds increased by 7.6 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively; the trading volumes of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds decreased slightly by 1.1 billion yuan and 0.3 billion yuan respectively [74]. - In terms of remaining terms, the transaction term structure of urban investment bonds shifted to the medium - long term, the proportion of transactions within 1 year decreased by 4.58pct, while the proportions of 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years, and over 5 years increased by 0.83pct, 2.69pct, 0.18pct, and 0.88pct respectively; the term structure of industrial bonds concentrated on 1 - 3 years, the proportion within 1 year decreased by 1.10pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years increased by 2.93pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years increased by 0.13pct, the proportion of 3 - 5 years decreased by 1.44pct, and the proportion of over 5 years decreased by 0.51pct; the term structure of bank secondary capital bonds was generally stable, the proportion within 1 year increased by 0.04pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years decreased by 0.15pct, and the proportion of over 5 years increased by 0.11pct; the term of bank perpetual bonds shifted to the short - end, the proportion within 1 year increased by 3.05pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years increased by 0.49pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years increased by 1.72pct, and the proportion of 3 - 5 years decreased by 5.25pct; the term structure of securities firm sub - bonds concentrated on 3 - 5 years, the proportion within 1 year increased by 1.59pct, the proportion of 1 - 2 years decreased by 5.03pct, the proportion of 2 - 3 years decreased by 9.28pct, and the proportion of 3 - 5 years increased by 12.72pct; the term of insurance sub - bonds concentrated on the short - term, the proportion within 1 year increased by 12.94pct, and the proportion of over 5 years decreased by 12.94pct [75]. - In terms of implied ratings, the rating structure of urban investment bonds concentrated on lower ratings, AAA decreased by 0.90pct, AAA - decreased by 0.01pct, AA + remained unchanged (0.00pct), AA increased by 0.14pct, AA(2) decreased by 0.06pct, and AA - increased by 0.85pct; the rating structure of industrial bonds showed differentiation, AAA increased by 1.16pct, AAA - increased by 0.34pct, AA + decreased by 2.02pct, AA increased by 1.13pct, AA(2) decreased by 0.12pct, and AA - increased by 0.12pct; the ratings of bank secondary capital bonds were differentiated, AAA - increased by 4.78pct, AA + decreased by 4.39pct, AA decreased by 0.42pct, and AA - increased by 0.06pct; the ratings of bank perpetual bonds tilted towards AAA -, the proportion of AAA remained unchanged (0.00pct), AAA - increased by 9.07pct, AA + decreased by 7.99pct, AA decreased by 2.40pct, and AA - increased by 1.10pct; the ratings of securities firm sub - bonds concentrated on AA +, AAA - decreased by 8.36pct, AA + increased by 11.03pct, AA decreased by 2.88pct, and AA - increased by 0.14pct; the proportions of various ratings of insurance sub - bonds showed differentiation, AA + increased by 3.55pct, AA increased by 11.64pct, and AA - decreased by 13.17pct [76]. 3.5.2. Spread Tracking - The yields of credit bonds showed differentiation at various levels and terms. This week, except for the yields of 5 - year bonds at all levels, 3 - year and 4 - year AAA - rated bonds, which generally increased, the others generally decreased. Among them, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels decreased slightly by 1.73BP. The yield of 5 - year AA - rated bonds decreased the most, by 2.15BP. The current yield percentile levels of all levels are relatively low, the percentiles of the medium - short end are generally lower than those of the long end, the 1 - year AA is at an extremely low percentile of 0.3% since 2025, the 4 - year AA yield percentile is at 24.4%, and the 5 - year AAA is at a percentile of 22.0%. - The credit spreads of 1 - year bonds at all levels, 4 - year AA + and AA - rated bonds narrowed, while the others widened. Among them, the spread of 4 - year AA - rated bonds narrowed the most, by 1.73BP, the narrowing amplitude of 1 - year bonds at all levels was 0.09BP, and the spread of 3 - year AAA - rated bonds widened by 2.48BP. In terms of spread percentiles, the spreads of all levels are generally in a relatively low range, among which the spread percentiles of 1 - year bonds at all levels are relatively low, all between 0.3% - 0.6% [79]. - The yields of urban investment bonds showed differentiation at various levels and terms. The 1 - year yields generally decreased, while the 2 - year, 4 - year, and 5 - year yields generally increased. Among them, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels decreased significantly, with AAA decreasing by 1.59BP, and AA + and AA decreasing by 1.58BP. The yields of 5 - year bonds at all levels increased synchronously, with AAA increasing by 0.90BP, AA + increasing by 1.60BP, and AA increasing by 0.6BP. This week, except for the yields of 2 - year, 3 - year AA, 4 - year, and 5 - year bonds at all levels, which increased, the yields of 1 - year bonds at all levels, 3 - year AAA, and 3 - year AA + at all levels decreased, and the short - end decline was relatively significant. The current yield percentile levels of all levels are relatively low, the percentiles of the medium - short term are generally lower than those of the long term, the 1 - year bonds at all levels are at an extremely low percentile of 0.3% since 2025

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved, which is a "construction blueprint" for China's economic and social development in the next five years, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [2][16]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to soaring oil prices, and many countries have taken measures to deal with it, while the global energy market is facing a severe supply crisis [9][12]. - The performance of the bond market is differentiated, with long - term bonds under pressure due to inflation expectations and short - term bonds benefiting from the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates [25]. - The stock market is in a downward trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both showing a decline, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to reform the listing rules [36][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 decreased to 4.5% year - on - year, compared with 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the social financing scale was 2.3792 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year; M0, M1, and M2 increased year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was approved, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [2]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year - on - year at the end of February [2]. - In March, over 50 risk warnings for the premium of oil and gas theme funds were issued, and over 40 oil and gas theme ETFs absorbed 21.83 billion yuan [2]. - On March 13, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis [3]. - The market expects the Fed to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its March 19 meeting [3]. Metals - As of early March 2026, most metal material prices in the national circulation field increased, with the price of aluminum ingots (A00) rising by 4.44% month - on - month to a record high of 24,460 yuan/ton [5]. - Due to the recent gold price fluctuations, many banks have adjusted the trading rules of gold accumulation products [5]. - As of March 13, the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.40% from the previous trading day and 0.16% for the week [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early March 2026, the price of rebar (HRB400EΦ20mm) increased by 0.22% month - on - month, while the price of coking coal (main coking coal) decreased by 2.67% month - on - month to a new low since late July 2025 [6]. - In mid - March 2026, the power coal market entered the off - season, but the international and domestic prices showed significant divergence, and the price advantage of imported coal has declined to the lowest level in the past four years [6]. - Indonesia set the benchmark price of 5300 - calorie power coal at $71.55 per ton and 4100 - calorie coal at $48.32 per ton for the second half of March [6]. Energy and Chemicals - In response to the soaring oil prices, the US, UK, Germany, Austria, and Japan have taken measures to release strategic oil reserves [9]. - The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil to deal with the impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [10]. - Saudi Arabia has cut its crude oil production by about 2 million barrels per day to about 8 million barrels per day [10]. - Hedge funds have increased their bullish bets on crude oil to the highest level in six years [12]. - The US - Iran conflict has pushed the global energy market into a severe supply crisis, and major Wall Street institutions have warned of a further sharp rise in oil prices [12]. Agricultural Products - In early March 2026, 37 out of 50 important production materials in the national circulation field saw price increases, 10 saw decreases, and 3 remained unchanged, with the price of live pigs (outer ternary) falling by 3.7% month - on - month [13]. - As of early March 2026, the prices of wheat, rice, and soybeans in the circulation field increased month - on - month, while the price of peanuts remained flat [13]. - From March 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 926,602 tons, a 43.5% increase [13]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - The central bank will conduct a 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, a reduction of 10 billion yuan compared with the maturity amount [14]. - This week, 17.65 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 60 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchases will mature on Monday [15]. - On March 13, the central bank conducted a 3.75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 730 million yuan on the day [15]. Important News - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including Sino - US economic and trade consultations, central bank interest rate decisions, and corporate earnings announcements [16]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released, with 16 major strategic tasks and 109 major projects [16]. - The Chinese and US sides are holding economic and trade consultations in France, and China has made representations to the US regarding the 301 investigation [17]. - The State Council has discussed and passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [18]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 9.6 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year - on - year at the end of February [18]. - The US and Iran have different stances on the cease - fire, and the war may continue [18]. - Iran has launched attacks on US and Israeli targets, and the US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - Many countries have taken measures to deal with the soaring oil prices [19]. - In January - February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment have rebounded [19]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration and the central bank have jointly issued regulations on disclosing the comprehensive financing cost of personal loans, which will take effect on August 1, 2026 [20]. - The property markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shown signs of recovery, with the second - hand housing market leading the way [20]. - In 2026, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the bond tool combination, and improving transfer payment efficiency [21]. - Shanghai police have cracked a major illegal business case of inducing investors to buy suspended bonds through live - streaming, with an involved amount of over 200 million yuan [21]. - The discussion on re - regulating inter - bank deposit interest rates has heated up, and the central bank may change the assessment method of inter - bank current deposits [21]. - Many bank wealth management subsidiaries have adjusted the performance comparison benchmarks of their products, which has made it difficult for investors to judge the expected returns [22]. - The US has withdrawn a proposed AI chip export control rule, and the future of chip export control is uncertain [23]. - The escalating Middle East situation has affected the Fed's policy path, and the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut has declined [23]. - There are some bond - related events, such as new overdue debts of Sunac and the redemption of bonds by some companies [23]. - Some overseas companies' credit ratings have changed, including downgrades and upgrades [24]. Bond Market Summary - In the inter - bank bond market, the performance of major interest - rate bonds is differentiated, with long - term treasury bonds under pressure and policy - financial bonds performing well [25]. - In the exchange bond market, some industrial and financial bonds have declined, while some other bonds have risen [25]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index have both declined [26]. - The money market interest rates have mixed trends, with some short - term rates falling [26]. - Shibor short - term varieties have all declined [27]. - The inter - bank repurchase fixed - term rates have mostly fallen [27]. - The weighted winning yields of 1 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds have been announced [27]. - European bond yields have all increased, and US bond yields have mixed trends [28]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - On March 13, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated [29]. - In the New York market, the US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies generally fell [29]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the risk of continuous upward movement of oil prices and the slow repair of the supply gap are related, and the probability of an unexpected increase in China's PPI year - on - year is increasing [31]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the optimization and upgrading of inter - bank deposit self - regulation is reasonable and necessary, which is relatively beneficial to inter - bank certificates of deposit and medium - and short - term bonds in the short term [31]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit issuance scale in early 2026 is generally the same as that of the same period last year, and the follow - up improvement of corporate medium - and long - term loans remains to be observed [32]. - Yangtze River Fixed - Income suggests holding gold and cash and seizing opportunities to invest in stocks and bonds if stagflation occurs [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the implementation of the active fiscal policy will help improve the payment ability of the government and the payment collection situation of environmental protection enterprises [33]. Stock Market Important News - The CSRC has deployed the implementation of the spirit of the Two Sessions, including strengthening market supervision, promoting the reform of the GEM, and cracking down on illegal activities [36]. - A - shares have declined, with technology - related stocks adjusting, and over 3,800 stocks falling [36]. - Hong Kong stocks have also declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling for three consecutive days, and the south - bound funds have net bought over HK$18.4 billion [36]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to reform the listing rules to attract more companies to list in Hong Kong [37].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 375 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 13, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was 375 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 448 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73 billion yuan for the day, and a total net withdrawal of 1,011 billion yuan for the week [1] - For the week of March 16-20, 1,765 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains relatively loose, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly declining to around 1.32% [3] - Overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) stabilized at 1.3%, with supply exceeding 1 trillion yuan [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.64% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.535%, down 1.75 basis points from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds show divergence, with medium to long-term government bonds performing weakly [11] - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a decline, with the 30-year main contract down 0.25% and the 10-year main contract down 0.07% [14] Group 5: Recent Economic Data - In the first two months, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits rose by 9.26 trillion yuan, with the social financing scale increasing by 9.6 trillion yuan, 3,162 billion yuan more than the same period last year [15] - The M2 balance at the end of February was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [15] - The central bank plans to conduct a 500 billion yuan fixed-rate, multi-price reverse repurchase operation on March 16, with 6,000 billion yuan in 182-day reverse repos maturing on the same day [15] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.6% due to the negative impact of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [19] - Amazon issued $54 billion in bonds in the U.S. and Euro markets, setting a record for corporate bond issuance in Europe, driven by its significant investments in artificial intelligence [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a differentiated pattern with short - term interest rates declining and long - term interest rates rising. The short - and long - term interest rate differentiation is the result of different institutional behaviors, and they will converge in the medium term. The key to the convergence lies in the monetary policy's reaction to current price increases. It is believed that the current price increase will not lead to a tightening of monetary policy, and the long - term adjustment may not be sustainable. After the end of the quarter, the market is expected to recover [1][8][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Differentiation - This week, the bond market's differentiation intensified. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.9 bps to 1.28%, and the 1 - year certificate of deposit (CD) rate fell 1.8 bps to 1.53%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3.3 bps to 1.81%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield soared 8.5 bps to 2.37%. The 5 - year AAA - second - tier perpetual bond also rose 4.7 bps in total, and the yield curve steepened significantly [1][8] 3.2 Reasons for Short - term Interest Rate Decline - Banks lack assets, leading to a continuous increase in the deposit - loan gap. From January to February, deposits increased by 520 billion yuan year - on - year, while loans decreased by 530 billion yuan year - on - year, and the loan growth rate slowed from 6.4% in December last year to 6.0% in February. Banks increase inter - bank lending, resulting in loose liquidity [2][11] - The central bank basically approves of the current loose liquidity. This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 10.11 billion yuan, and the 600 - billion - yuan repurchase was renewed with a reduced amount of 100 billion yuan. This is due to insufficient overall capital demand. After the end of the quarter, credit demand will further decline in April, maintaining loose liquidity [2][12] - The strengthening of the inter - bank deposit self - regulatory mechanism may further push down short - term interest rates. After the implementation of the mechanism in December 2024, wealth management products and money market funds increased their bond allocations. If the inter - bank deposit rate drops by 10 bps, the 1 - year joint - stock bank CD rate is expected to fall below 1.5%, and the 1 - year AAA medium - term note rate is expected to drop to around 1.55% [3][15] 3.3 Reasons for Long - term Interest Rate Increase - The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has driven up oil prices. If the oil price remains at the current level, the PPI year - on - year may turn positive in March and rise rapidly to a high level around mid - year. The impact of price increases on long - term bonds is magnified by institutional behavior. At the end of the quarter, banks' long - term bond allocation demand slows down, and securities firms' large - scale selling drives up long - term bond interest rates [4][16] 3.4 Convergence of Short - and Long - term Interest Rates - The key to the convergence of short - and long - term interest rates lies in the monetary policy. If the price increase leads to a tightening of monetary policy, short - term interest rates will rise to converge with long - term rates. However, it is believed that the current price increase is mainly input - driven, concentrated in industries such as non - ferrous metals and energy, and will not lead to an improvement in corporate profits or an increase in financing demand. The central bank's tightening of money has little impact on globally - priced oil and precious metals, so the monetary policy is likely to remain loose [4][19] 3.5 Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - The weak sentiment of long - term bonds is expected to ease in the medium term. After the end of the quarter, as banks' allocation power recovers and trading institutions close their short positions, the market is expected to gradually recover. In the short term, it is recommended to increase leverage, choose appropriate riding positions, and wait for the post - quarter recovery market. At that time, consider increasing the duration [5][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the downward trend in yields for cash management and fixed-income products, driven by a declining interest rate environment and regulatory changes affecting interbank deposit rates [3][5][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The annualized yield of a popular money market fund has dropped to 1.034%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields in cash management products [3][5]. - Interbank deposit rates are expected to decrease further due to regulatory discussions aimed at managing these rates more transparently, which will likely pressure the yields of funds and wealth management products [5][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is considering stricter self-regulation for interbank deposit rates, which may include quantitative constraints on the proportion of deposits exceeding the 7-day reverse repo rate [7][8]. - By the end of 2024, new self-regulatory mechanisms will bind interbank deposit pricing to macro-prudential assessment frameworks, potentially impacting the volume and pricing of interbank deposits [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that if interbank deposit rates are lowered by 10 basis points, it could reduce banks' interest expenses by approximately 37 billion yuan annually, affecting the cost of liabilities [11][12]. - The average yield of wealth management products has already fallen to 1.98%, with many cash management products yielding below 1% [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The anticipated tightening of interbank deposit regulations is expected to lead to increased demand for certificates of deposit and short-term bonds, which may benefit from a lower cost of liabilities [10][14]. - The market has already begun to reflect these changes, with yields on one-year certificates of deposit dropping below 1.55% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Inflation rising does not necessarily lead to an upward - moving interest rate center. Since the 21st century, there have been 6 obvious inflation - rising periods in China, which can be divided into demand - pull inflation, cost - push inflation, and structural inflation. Demand - type inflation often drives the interest rate center up significantly, while cost - type and structural inflation do not necessarily do so [1][9]. - Inflation rising does not necessarily result in tightened monetary policy. The fundamental reasons for the upward - moving interest rate center are the recovery of the fundamentals and tightened monetary policy. During demand - pull inflation, the central bank often stops easing or tightens monetary policy, driving up interest rates. In 2019 and 2021, mainly cost - push inflation occurred, and the monetary policy focused on maintaining economic growth and might be further relaxed, leading to a decline in interest rates [1][10]. - After the bond market adjustment, the allocation value has increased, and allocation investors are actively participating. With the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, the liability costs of banks and insurance institutions have decreased, and bank liabilities are more stable than expected. As a result, allocation funds are sufficient [2][14]. - The cost - performance of bonds has increased. It is difficult for the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate to break through the previous high and may maintain a volatile trend. It is advisable to moderately participate in long - term bonds during the adjustment. With the continuous relaxation of the capital market, the short - end has higher certainty, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of spread reduction [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, inflation shocks and inter - bank news alternately disturbed the bond market, causing intensified fluctuations. The long - end performed weaker than the short - end. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 3bp and 9bp respectively [8]. - The current inflation recovery is mainly driven by the cost side. However, the 2026 government work report clearly states "continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy", so the probability of tightened monetary policy is low [10]. 3.2 Bond Market Quotation Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation: The central bank had a net withdrawal, and capital interest rates rose - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan. From March 9th to 13th, R001 and DR001 rose by 0.3bp and 0.2bp respectively compared with March 6th. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate fluctuated within a range, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell. As of March 13th, the 3M national - share bank draft discount price was 1.48%, up 10bp from March 6th [26][28]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends: Fluctuations intensified - This week, the yield fluctuations intensified, and the long - end performed weaker than the short - end. Except for the 1 - year, the Treasury bond interest rates of other key tenors rose. Except for the 10Y - 7Y, the term spreads of other key tenors widened. As of March 13th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 3bp and 9bp respectively compared with March 6th [32]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment: The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened significantly - As of March 13th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds rebounded to 40%, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread widened by 1bp compared with March 6th, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened by 5.2bp to 55bp, reaching a new high this year. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio slightly dropped to 121.9%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased by 0.01 years to 2.55 years, and the divergence degree slightly decreased. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply: This week, the CD issuance rate dropped to 1.55%, and the government bond issuance scale will increase next week - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. From March 9th to 13th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 255.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds turned to net financing, while the net financing of local government bonds decreased. Next week, the government bond issuance scale will increase, and the local government bond issuance scale is expected to reach 342.2 billion yuan, an increase of 206.7 billion yuan compared with this week [49][53]. 3.3 Economic Data: Freight rate indices and industrial production continued to improve marginally - In February, inflation readings exceeded expectations. The CPI同比 was 1.3%, the core CPI同比 was 1.8%, and the PPI同比 was - 0.9%. From January to February, foreign trade growth returned to double - digits. In February, the total national import and export volume was 508.78 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 27.7%. The total import and export volume from January to February was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 21.0% [56]. - In February, social financing growth remained stable, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded. Since March, freight rate indices and industrial production have continued to improve marginally. In terms of real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities and the land transaction area in 100 cities declined month - on - month. In terms of consumption, movie consumption continued to weaken, while subway travel was stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality. In terms of exports, port cargo throughput decreased month - on - month, while container throughput increased month - on - month. Industrial production continued to improve marginally [59]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets: US GDP data was significantly revised down, and Chinese bonds outperformed US and European bonds - US GDP data was significantly revised down. The annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down from the initial value of 1.4% to 0.7%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has cooled. US and European bonds fell, and the emerging - market bond market generally declined [64][66]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes: Crude oil prices continued to rise, and the US dollar index exceeded 100 - This week, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, the Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose significantly by 17%, and the US dollar index rose and exceeded 100 again. Shanghai copper and gold both fell slightly. The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > live pigs > Chinese bonds > convertible bonds > CSI 1000 > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai gold > Shanghai copper [69]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - From March 16th to 20th, there will be liquidity injections and expirations, government bond supplies, and the release of fundamental data. There are also many important domestic and international events to watch, such as central - bank interest - rate decisions and economic data releases in different countries [74].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds is expected to continue expanding due to the dual benefits of lower financing costs and the internationalization of the Renminbi, leading to increased investment demand from both domestic and foreign capital [1][16]. Group 1: Market Activity and Trends - As of the end of 2025, the outstanding scale of the Dim Sum bond market is approximately 1.3 trillion yuan, with the number of issuances and fundraising amounts in the first two months of the year reaching 276 and 230.69 billion yuan, respectively, both up by 30% year-on-year [3][4]. - The low interest rate environment in China is attracting foreign enterprises, technology companies, and even foreign government agencies to use Dim Sum bonds as a key financing tool, with issuance rates generally below 3% compared to over 4% for dollar-denominated bonds [3][4][6]. Group 2: Changing Issuer Landscape - There is a noticeable shift in the types of issuers for Dim Sum bonds, with the proportion of issuances from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) decreasing from 44% in 2024 to 30% in 2025, while the share from technology companies, large state-owned enterprises, and foreign entities is on the rise [9][10]. - In 2025, technology companies issued Dim Sum bonds with a total subscription amount of approximately 150 billion yuan, which is 3.2 times their issuance amount, indicating strong market interest [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Demand and Global Interest - Global capital is increasingly interested in allocating to Renminbi assets, with major asset management institutions planning to raise their allocation from less than 3% to 6%-8% following geopolitical tensions [4][13]. - The actual yield of Dim Sum bonds, when considering currency exchange rates, can reach 3.884% under current market conditions, making them attractive compared to U.S. Treasury yields [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the active issuance of Dim Sum bonds will continue, driven by the advantages of lower financing costs and the increasing attractiveness of Renminbi assets, with expectations for sustained growth in investment demand from both domestic and international markets [1][16].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In February, social financing increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan[3] - The total social financing scale for the first two months of 2026 reached 9.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 316.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.2% compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: Loan Distribution and Trends - In February, loans to the real economy increased by 5.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 124.8 billion yuan, while foreign currency loans increased by 43.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.5 billion yuan[3] - Corporate loans increased by 5.94 trillion yuan in the first two months, with short-term loans rising by 2.65 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 4.07 trillion yuan[4] - The demand for loans from the corporate sector improved, with short-term loans increasing by 2.7 trillion yuan and long-term loans by 3.5 trillion yuan[4] Group 3: Government and Corporate Bonds - In February, government bonds increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan due to a high base effect[6] - Corporate bonds saw a net financing increase of 655.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.8 billion yuan, with significant contributions from infrastructure and consumer sectors[6] - The issuance of new policy financial instruments and increased local government special bond quotas are expected to support corporate long-term loans and social financing expansion[6] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 growth rate was 5.9%, up by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a low base and increased financing from the real sector[6] - M2 growth rate remained stable at 9.0% compared to the previous month[6] - In the first two months, total RMB deposits increased by 9.26 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 5.24 trillion yuan[6]