丨 来源：新华社客户端 2025-10-11 深入解读政策 精准对接需求 重庆证监局扎实开展上市公司常态化走访 "政策讲得透，企业才能用得足。"重庆证监局采用点面结合、多维覆盖的策略，既开 展"一企一策"上门辅导，提高政策解读针对性，又通过调研座谈、专题培训会等方式，扩大政 策宣传覆盖面，真正将资本市场"1+N"政策体系等政策红利转化为助推重庆"33618"现代制造 业建设的不竭动力。 "并购六条"落地开花。2025年以来，辖区并购重组活动提档加速，截至三季度末，新增重 大资产重组数量同比增长近70%。赛力斯完成发行股份购买资产，彻底改变了主力车型生产车 间长期靠租赁的局面。渝三峡A现金收购1家辐射制冷光学涂层行业公司，从传统涂料行业迈 向产业升级发展新阶段。远达环保并购重组事项获证监会注册批复，成为央企资产整合的标杆 样本。新铝时代、涪陵榨菜、新大正等多家上市公司发行股份购买资产事项正有序推进。 市值管理多措并举。《上市公司市值管理指引》发布后，辖区公司积极回应市场关切，用 好用足市值管理"工具箱"。14家公司已公告2025年半年度分红，分红金额同比增长超300%， 投资者获得感持续增强，头部公司长安汽车、 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 10 月 17 日 9 月金融数据点评：信用修复取决于盈利与财政合力 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 魏争 分析师 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524100001 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 投资要点： 社融存量增速回落至 8.7%。9 月新增社融 3.53 万亿元，同比少增 2339 亿元，社融存量增速较上月回落 0.1 个百分点至 8.7%。从分项来看，9 月 社融回落主要由政府债供给节奏放缓与人民币贷款走弱造成，而企业债与 表外票据融资形成一定支撑。整体上看，财政发力阶段性减弱、信贷派生 动力不足，使当月信用修复呈现结构性波动特征。 企业贷款有所分化。当月企业部门新增短贷 7100 亿，同比多增 2500 亿。一方面，票据与短贷的替代效应明显。9 月票据融资减少 4026 亿 元，同比少增 4920 亿，票据贴现利率上行约束了银行通过票据冲量的意 愿，部分企业流动性需求转向短期贷款，推动短贷多增；另一方面，银行 投放更偏短期化。在净息差承压的背景下，银行更 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.7% in September 2025, down from 8.8% in August 2025, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.29 trillion yuan compared to 1.59 trillion yuan in September 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that the demand for credit in the real economy remains weak, with government bonds continuing to support social financing growth, although the net financing scale of government bonds in September 2025 (1.17 trillion yuan) is lower than that in August 2024 (1.50 trillion yuan) [4][6] - The report notes a structural highlight in financial data for September, driven by base effects and short-term policy impacts, suggesting that the bond market may not return to a "fundamentals + liquidity" pricing model without significant interest rate cuts [4][6] Financial Data Analysis - In September 2025, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, lower than the seasonal level, indicating a decrease in financing activity [4][5] - The report mentions that the increase in M1 growth rate and the narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to historical lows since 2022 suggest a complex relationship between money supply and economic activity [4][36] - The report highlights that the weak performance in the equity market has led to a slowdown in the trend of household deposits entering the market, with non-bank deposits significantly dropping [4][10] Credit Demand Insights - The report identifies that the demand for credit from households is not strong, with improvements in medium and long-term loans being observed but still below seasonal levels [4][21][26] - It notes that corporate short-term loans have shown signs of recovery, while the demand for long-term loans remains weak [4][24][26] - The report emphasizes that the ticket discount rate has risen, which may suppress the demand for corporate bill financing [4][10] Government Bond Financing - The report indicates a slowdown in the issuance of government bonds and a decrease in loan demand, which together have dragged down the growth rate of social financing in September [4][6] - It highlights that the net financing pace of local government bonds has also slowed down, reflecting a cautious approach in fiscal policy [4][6] Market Trends - The report discusses the trend of household deposits remaining high, with a significant portion of deposits being held in demand accounts due to lower opportunity costs from deposit rates [4][35] - It also notes that the overall market for wealth management products has grown in line with seasonal expectations, indicating stable investor sentiment [4][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, financial data was neutral, continuing the trend of "weak credit and rising M1 year-on-year". Affected by the base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing is expected to decline. The "deposit relocation" process needs further verification, and the bond market is expected to be mainly volatile [6][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial Data Review - **Social Financing**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing declined slightly to 8.68%. The government bond's driving effect on social financing weakened due to the misaligned issuance rhythm and high base from the previous year. Excluding government bonds, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 5.94% [4][10]. - **Money Supply**: M1 continued its high - growth trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% in September, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year gap between M1 and M2 widened to -1.2%. The growth was driven by a low base last year and increased fiscal spending [5][17]. - **Credit**: The total credit was slightly weak and structurally differentiated. In September, new RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, slightly lower than expected. Corporate short - term loans expanded, while resident credit was weak. Resident short - term loans increased less year - on - year, and the personal consumption loan discount policy's effect was not fully shown. Resident long - term loans increased year - on - year due to housing policy optimization and the sales season. Overall, the credit data showed that policy guidance was effective in some areas, but enterprise long - term investment willingness and resident consumption credit recovery were still constraints [20][21]. - **Deposit**: In September, RMB deposit data showed structural differentiation. Resident deposits increased significantly, while non - banking financial institution deposits decreased. This was affected by seasonal factors and the high base from the previous year, and the "deposit relocation" trend needs further verification [27]. 2. Financial Data and Bond Market Outlook - The financial data in September was neutral, and the bond market is expected to improve slightly in the fourth quarter but remain a weak asset, mainly volatile. Investors should focus on four short - term disturbance factors: tariff trends, fund sales fee rate adjustments, inflation trends, and equity market performance [30].

债 券 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 存款搬家暂缓，债市仍未顺风 债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2025 年 9 月新增人民币贷款 1.29 万亿元（2024 年 9 月为 1.59 万亿元），新增社融 3.53 万亿元（2024 年 9 月为 3.76 万亿元），社融同比增速为 8.7%（2025 年 8 月为 8.8%），M2 同比 8.4%（2025 年 8 月为 8.8%）。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 - ⚫ 第一，社融同比增速下降，一方面受高基数影响，另一方面实体部门信贷需求不强。企 业新增短贷和居民新增中长贷是亮点，但持续性仍待观察。政府债继续支 ...

近期，国际黄金价格持续走强，伦敦金价连续多日站稳每盎司4000美元高位。据Wind数据统计，截至 2025年10月16日，伦敦金开盘价已达4208.757美元/盎司，年初至今涨幅高达61%。 伴随着金价屡创新高，叠加美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险加剧等多重因素驱动，投资者对黄金相关业 务的投资热度持续升温。黄金ETF规模迅速扩张，商业银行积存金、定投计划等黄金投资业务也迎来一 波"购金热"。 然而，市场热度背后，风险也在悄然积聚。面对金价短期内过快上涨、波动率加大等潜在风险，近来多 家商业银行开启新一轮的"购金"门槛上调，强化投资者适当性管理，主动为市场"降温"。 积存金业务风控升级 随着金价持续攀升，商业银行迅速启动新一轮贵金属业务风控升级。10月以来，包括中国银行 （601988.SH）、工商银行（601398.SH）、建设银行（601939.SH）、宁波银行（002142.SZ）在内的 多家机构相继发布公告，上调积存金业务的起购金额，加强对投资者风险承受能力的筛选。 中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 中国银行于10月14日发布公告称，将于10月15日起调整积存金产品的购买条件。"按金额购买积存金产 品或创建积存 ...

Banking Sector - In September, new RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, which was in line with market expectations but represented a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill financing [1] - New social financing in September reached 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, but still down 229.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, while M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points [1] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profitability in Q3, making it attractive for investment despite recent stock price adjustments [2] Securities Industry - It is anticipated that the profitability of listed securities firms will grow by 20% quarter-on-quarter and maintain a high year-on-year growth rate of around 50% in Q3 [3] - Brokerage revenue is expected to increase further due to a low base effect, and IPO fundraising is projected to see significant year-on-year growth [3] - The A-share securities industry index currently has a price-to-book ratio of 1.45, which is below the historical median of 1.51, indicating attractive valuation [3] E-commerce Sector (JD.com) - JD.com is expected to see revenue in Q3 meet expectations, with profits slightly exceeding prior forecasts [5] - Retail growth remains robust, although the growth rate for certain categories is impacted by high base effects from government subsidies [5] - The company is projected to narrow its losses in the food delivery segment, with improved user engagement and significant growth in user numbers [5][6] Restaurant Sector (Jiumaojiu) - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales continue to face pressure, with declines of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% for its brands in Q3 [7] - Despite negative growth, there are initial signs of recovery, particularly for the Taier brand, which has shown improvement in major cities [7][8] - The company has adjusted its store count, reducing inefficient locations, which has led to marginal improvements in operational efficiency [8]

中国经济上半年GDP同比增长5.3%超出预期，三季度走势如何备受市场关注。 国家统计局10月20日将发布三季度及9月份宏观经济数据。参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家们对第三 季度GDP同比增速的预测均值为4.8%，并认为四季度经济将延续温和增长态势，对全年GDP同比增速 的预测均值为4.8%。 三季度以来，受出口下行压力显现等因素影响，中国经济出现短期波动，政策加码的预期上升。四季度 是全年经济收官的冲刺阶段，也是政策发力的重要窗口期。基建投资方面一个有趣的数据是，被视为国 民经济"晴雨表"的挖掘机销量9月井喷，各类挖掘机销量达到19858台，同比增长25.4%。 国务院总理李强10月14日主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会强调，要加力提效实施逆周期调节，总 量政策持续发力，用足用好政策资源，以改革办法打通堵点卡点，增强发展动能。并从持续用力扩大内 需、综合治理行业无序非理性竞争、大力支持稳外贸稳外资等多个方面对下阶段经济工作作出部署。 出口对工业增加值形成一定拉动 国际货币基金组织（IMF）14日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，小幅上调今年世界经济增长预 期。IMF指出，关税冲击正进一步削弱全球经济增长前景 ...

该行同时将2026年黄金均价预期从3125美元/盎司上调至3950美元/盎司，上调幅度达26%。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对经济中信贷质量的担忧加剧以及地缘政治紧张局势推动了避险需求增加，再 加上投资者纷纷押注美联储今年可能实施一次大幅降息，黄金与白银价格均触及历史新高。 数据显示，周五亚洲早盘，现货黄金一度上涨1.2%，至每盎司4379.96美元，创下历史新高，并有望创 下自2020年以来的最大单周涨幅。现货白银则小幅上涨，触及每盎司54.3775美元的历史高位后回吐了 部分涨幅。 汇丰则是最新一家上调黄金目标价的大行。汇丰将其对2025年黄金均价的预期由3215美元/盎司上调至 3355美元/盎司，原因是地缘政治紧张、经济不确定性以及美元走弱。 招商证券发布研究报告称，无论从抗通胀、避风险等短期价格决定因素，还是从货币和金融等长期价格 决定因素，预计黄金价格有望在未来继续创新高。短期内，招商证券预计受避险情绪的影响，黄金价格 会继续维持强势。而中长期内，有三方面因素继续推动黄金价格中枢上移。 黄金及贵金属相关港股： 紫金矿业(02899)、资金黄金国际(02259)、山东黄金(01787)、招金矿业(01 ...

增加科技型中小企业首贷投放 本次《实施方案》着重引导和支持金融机构增加科技型中小企业首贷投放。中国人民银行北京市分 行党委书记、行长巢克俭在会上表示，前期北京市在开展相关工作方面也取得一些成效。截至8月末， 北京辖区金融机构科技型中小企业贷款余额同比增长30.9%，专精特新中小企业贷款余额同比增长 14.3%，均显著高于辖区人民币各项贷款增速（7.6%）。 巢克俭指出，为持续加大和优化金融供给，中国人民银行北京市分行积极落实适度宽松的货币政 策，推动一揽子货币政策措施在京落地见效。截至目前，北京地区各类主体在银行间市场发行科技创新 债券超2300亿元，规模全国排名前列。 更好发挥北交所"主场优势" 本次《实施方案》明确提出"发挥资本市场支持科技创新的关键枢纽作用"。中国证券监督管理委员 会北京监管局党委委员、副局长侯凤坤在会上介绍，北京证监局将重点从私募基金、挂牌上市和债券三 个方面发力。 昨日，北京市科委、中关村管委会，中国人民银行北京市分行，国家金融监督管理总局北京监管 局，中国证券监督管理委员会北京监管局有关负责人，以及北京市委金融办相关负责人出席《北京市关 于加快构建科技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自 ...