Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market opened strongly after the holiday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points, both reaching new highs since February 2022 [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the standout performer in the A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 77.56%, outperforming hardware equipment (59.07%) and semiconductors (58.74%) [2] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 6.67% [6] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Western Superconducting (688122.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), hit the daily limit up [6] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zhongjin Gold (600589.SH) reaching historical highs [6] Global Influences - International gold prices surged past $4000 per ounce, contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices, which reached 1160 yuan per gram [6] - The recent increase in prices for various non-ferrous metals, including copper, tin, cobalt, zinc, and aluminum, was noted during the holiday period [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "shaking upward" trend for the market in October, with expectations of continued inflow of capital and a stable upward trajectory for indices [8] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to influence market sentiment positively, while the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profitability across most sectors [8][9]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (02727) surged by 15.72%, with its A-shares hitting the daily limit, driven by positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as domestic supply chain localization accelerates, with local foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 11%, being a leading copper smelting company in China, with a potential resumption of production at a copper mine owned by First Quantum [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 8%, as cobalt prices surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) jumped 26% following HSBC's recommendation to privatize the bank [1] - Solar stocks saw gains in early trading, with prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continuing to rise in September, particularly in upstream sectors [1] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" railway development planning [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the overseas debut of its Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, making a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with several constituent stocks like Innovent Biologics (09969) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177) experiencing declines of over 6% [3] - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its yearly high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [3]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export suspension until October 15, 2025, which may impact market expectations and inventory depletion rates in the short term [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the allocation of future cobalt quotas in the DRC and the limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP in 2024 is highlighted, indicating that even significant increases in production may not compensate for the shortfall caused by the DRC's quota policy [2] - According to customs data, China's cobalt intermediate imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, reflecting significant month-over-month declines of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [2] Group 2 - It is projected that global effective cobalt supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025 due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months, with further extensions potentially exacerbating raw material shortages [2] - The tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong support for long-term price stability due to the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply management [2] - The stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) has increased by over 50% in the month, with a current price of 22.14 HKD, reflecting a rise of 4.43% and a trading volume of 338 million HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising cobalt prices driven by government intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is expected to benefit the DRC government and impact the global electric vehicle (EV) market significantly. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices have experienced two significant cycles of volatility since 2016 due to supply-demand mismatches [2] - From May 2022 to early 2025, cobalt prices entered a downward phase due to slowing demand for EVs and increased competition from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries [4] - The DRC government has intervened in the cobalt market since 2025, controlling supply to create an upward price cycle [5][6] Group 2: Government Intervention - The DRC, as the largest cobalt supplier, accounted for over 75% of global cobalt supply in 2024, with reserves of 6 million tons [6] - The DRC government imposed temporary export bans on cobalt in 2025, leading to a price rebound of over 100% from its lowest point [7] - The DRC has extended the export ban and introduced a quota system, limiting exports to 9.66 million tons in 2026 and 2027, significantly below its production capacity [8] Group 3: Price Projections - Analysts predict that cobalt prices could reach between 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton due to the supply constraints imposed by the DRC government [8] - The global demand for cobalt is expected to grow, with projected requirements of 248,000 tons in 2025 and 329,000 tons in 2027, indicating a widening supply-demand gap [8] Group 4: Impact on Battery Technology - The rising cobalt prices are likely to negatively impact the nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery route while benefiting LFP battery manufacturers [18] - The cost increase in cobalt could lead to a rise of over 10,000 yuan in battery costs for each EV, affecting automaker profit margins and consumer choices [18] - Companies are exploring alternative battery technologies to reduce cobalt dependency, such as high-nickel low-cobalt batteries [19][20] Group 5: Recycling and Market Opportunities - Cobalt recycling companies are expected to benefit from rising prices, with companies like Greeenme's cobalt recycling business showing improved profitability [21] - The current cobalt price crisis serves as a catalyst for industry upgrades and a lesson for the Chinese EV sector [22] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The DRC government's intervention in the cobalt market suggests a sustained upward price trend, making cobalt price tracking crucial for investors [23] - Historical performance of cobalt producers like Huayou Cobalt during previous price cycles may provide insights for current investment strategies [23]

Market Overview - A-shares saw a rise in all three major indices, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% during the morning session, closing at 3878.13 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, up 0.4% [1][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 763 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector experienced broad gains, particularly in the semiconductor and storage chip segments, with the storage index rising by 5.81% [5] - The aerospace and military, as well as non-ferrous metal sectors, saw significant increases, while the financial sector experienced a pullback [3][12] Key Stocks in Semiconductor Sector - Notable stocks included Jiangbolong, which hit the daily limit with a 20% increase, and Huahong Semiconductor, which rose by 15.16% [5][8] - Other companies such as Deep Technology and Demingli also recorded significant gains, with increases of 10% [5][8] Battery Sector Performance - The solid-state battery concept sector continued to rise, with lithium battery electrolyte and cathode segments also showing strong performance [10] - Stocks like Shida Shenghua and Tianji Co. reached their daily limit with a 10% increase [11] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector remained strong, with cobalt and nickel indices showing notable gains [12][14] - Companies such as Shengtun Mining and Hanrui Cobalt saw increases of 9.7% and 5%, respectively [14] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector also saw an uptick, with spot gold prices surpassing $3860 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over $100 this week [16][17]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1% during the morning session [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3878.13 points, up 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.31% and the ChiNext index increased by 0.06% [1] Trading Volume and Market Activity - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 763 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] - A total of 2977 stocks rose, with 48 hitting the daily limit up, while 2331 stocks declined [4] Sector Performance - The technology sector experienced broad gains, particularly in the semiconductor and storage chip segments, with the storage index rising by 5.81% [5][7] - Notable stocks included Jiangbolong, which hit the daily limit up with a 20% increase, and Huahong Semiconductor, which rose by 15.16% [7][12] Battery and Materials Sector - The battery sector continued its upward trend, with significant gains in lithium battery components, including lithium electrolyte and lithium iron phosphate batteries [15] - Stocks such as Shida Shenghua and Tianji Shares saw daily limit increases of 10% [16] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with cobalt and nickel indices rising over 4% [18] - Key performers included Huayou Cobalt, which increased by over 7%, and Shengtun Mining, which rose by 9.7% [20][21] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector also saw gains, with gold prices reaching 3860 USD per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 100 USD this week [22][23]

Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is facing disruptions at the mining level and structural adjustments in the smelting sector, with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia halting production due to a landslide, leading Freeport to lower its 2026 copper production forecast from 770,000 tons to 500,000 tons, raising supply chain concerns [1] - The domestic copper smelting industry is experiencing intense competition, resulting in persistently low processing fees, prompting the association to emphasize the need for strict control over capacity expansion, with the government researching regulatory measures [1] - The steel industry is focused on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," with a clear plan to achieve an average annual value-added growth target of 4% from 2025 to 2026, prohibiting new capacity and promoting resource concentration among leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with a remaining export quota of 18,125 tons for the rest of 2025 and an annual limit of 96,600 tons set for 2026-2027, as the country accounts for 70% of global cobalt production, tightening supply expectations [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider various ETFs related to non-ferrous metals, including the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices, which have risen nearly 40% this year [1][2] - Cobalt prices have increased from $14 per pound at the beginning of the year to $19.5 per pound by September 24, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [2] - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, and the extended export ban is expected to reduce cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons, nearly half of the global cobalt production in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Companies in the cobalt supply chain, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have seen significant stock price increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 10.87% and Huayou Cobalt up 7.85% as of September 25 [1][2] - Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 650 million yuan from cobalt products in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising cobalt prices [3] - Greenme's cobalt recycling capacity exceeds China's cobalt mining output by 350%, and its nickel-cobalt production in Indonesia has increased by 125% year-on-year, mitigating the impact of the DRC's export ban [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the tightening supply of cobalt will lead to a global supply gap exceeding 300,000 tons over the next three years, supporting further price increases [2] - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the growing electric vehicle market and technological advancements in sectors like 5G and AI, which will further support cobalt prices [3][4] - Companies with strong resource reserves and production capabilities, particularly in Indonesia, are expected to gain a competitive advantage as the DRC's export quota system is implemented [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on October 15, 2023, and the introduction of a quota system will significantly impact the global cobalt supply-demand balance, with expectations of tight supply in the coming years [1][2]. Cobalt Export Ban and Quota System - The DRC, the world's largest cobalt producer, will replace the export ban with a quota system starting October 16, 2023, allowing for over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports by the end of the year [2][8]. - In 2024, the DRC is projected to have cobalt reserves of 6 million tons, accounting for 55% of global reserves, and is expected to produce 220,000 tons, representing 76% of global output [2]. Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market rose, indicating positive market sentiment despite anticipated supply constraints [1]. - The current market shows a price increase for cobalt products, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising by 1% to 1,750 yuan/ton [3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The DRC's export ban led to a significant reduction in cobalt availability, with industry insiders noting that if the ban had continued, market inventories would have been insufficient for normal operations [7]. - Major mining companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, reported a 13% increase in cobalt production but a 35.09% increase in inventory, indicating a mismatch between production and market demand [7]. Future Supply Challenges - The new quota system is expected to be insufficient to meet the growing demand, with estimates suggesting that China alone requires around 100,000 tons of cobalt annually [9]. - The DRC's planned export quotas for 2026 and 2027 are set at 96,600 tons per year, which may not align with the projected consumption needs [9]. Diversification of Supply Sources - Chinese companies are actively seeking alternative cobalt supply channels, including projects in Indonesia, which have shown significant production increases [10]. - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly important, with companies like Grinm Metal achieving over 10,000 tons of cobalt recovery in the previous year [10][11].