Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is facing disruptions at the mining level and structural adjustments in the smelting sector, with the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia halting production due to a landslide, leading Freeport to lower its 2026 copper production forecast from 770,000 tons to 500,000 tons, raising supply chain concerns [1] - The domestic copper smelting industry is experiencing intense competition, resulting in persistently low processing fees, prompting the association to emphasize the need for strict control over capacity expansion, with the government researching regulatory measures [1] - The steel industry is focused on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," with a clear plan to achieve an average annual value-added growth target of 4% from 2025 to 2026, prohibiting new capacity and promoting resource concentration among leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with a remaining export quota of 18,125 tons for the rest of 2025 and an annual limit of 96,600 tons set for 2026-2027, as the country accounts for 70% of global cobalt production, tightening supply expectations [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider various ETFs related to non-ferrous metals, including the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices, which have risen nearly 40% this year [1][2] - Cobalt prices have increased from $14 per pound at the beginning of the year to $19.5 per pound by September 24, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [2] - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, and the extended export ban is expected to reduce cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons, nearly half of the global cobalt production in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Companies in the cobalt supply chain, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have seen significant stock price increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum up 10.87% and Huayou Cobalt up 7.85% as of September 25 [1][2] - Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 650 million yuan from cobalt products in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising cobalt prices [3] - Greenme's cobalt recycling capacity exceeds China's cobalt mining output by 350%, and its nickel-cobalt production in Indonesia has increased by 125% year-on-year, mitigating the impact of the DRC's export ban [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the tightening supply of cobalt will lead to a global supply gap exceeding 300,000 tons over the next three years, supporting further price increases [2] - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the growing electric vehicle market and technological advancements in sectors like 5G and AI, which will further support cobalt prices [3][4] - Companies with strong resource reserves and production capabilities, particularly in Indonesia, are expected to gain a competitive advantage as the DRC's export quota system is implemented [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on October 15, 2023, and the introduction of a quota system will significantly impact the global cobalt supply-demand balance, with expectations of tight supply in the coming years [1][2]. Cobalt Export Ban and Quota System - The DRC, the world's largest cobalt producer, will replace the export ban with a quota system starting October 16, 2023, allowing for over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports by the end of the year [2][8]. - In 2024, the DRC is projected to have cobalt reserves of 6 million tons, accounting for 55% of global reserves, and is expected to produce 220,000 tons, representing 76% of global output [2]. Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market rose, indicating positive market sentiment despite anticipated supply constraints [1]. - The current market shows a price increase for cobalt products, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising by 1% to 1,750 yuan/ton [3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The DRC's export ban led to a significant reduction in cobalt availability, with industry insiders noting that if the ban had continued, market inventories would have been insufficient for normal operations [7]. - Major mining companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, reported a 13% increase in cobalt production but a 35.09% increase in inventory, indicating a mismatch between production and market demand [7]. Future Supply Challenges - The new quota system is expected to be insufficient to meet the growing demand, with estimates suggesting that China alone requires around 100,000 tons of cobalt annually [9]. - The DRC's planned export quotas for 2026 and 2027 are set at 96,600 tons per year, which may not align with the projected consumption needs [9]. Diversification of Supply Sources - Chinese companies are actively seeking alternative cobalt supply channels, including projects in Indonesia, which have shown significant production increases [10]. - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly important, with companies like Grinm Metal achieving over 10,000 tons of cobalt recovery in the previous year [10][11].

Group 1 - The Congolese government has updated its cobalt export policy, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and limiting export quotas to 44% of annual production for 2026-2027, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1] - The export quota policy is expected to lead to significant supply shortages in global cobalt supply, with shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, which may result in a strong increase in cobalt prices [1] - Companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those owning mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Global investment in power grids is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2025, indicating a sustained high demand for electrical equipment [2] - The demand for transformers is increasing, particularly in the U.S. and the Middle East, with Chinese companies securing large orders worth billions [2] - The first half of 2025 is expected to see rapid growth in export business for leading companies in the electrical equipment sector, contributing to increased profitability [2] Group 3 - The computing power sector remains in a performance realization phase with moderate valuation levels, continuing to show promise for the second half of the year, particularly in PCB, domestic computing power, IP licensing, and chip inductors [2] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the foldable screen market, with potential new products from Apple expected to stimulate market discussions and demand [2] - AR glasses manufacturers are pushing the technology from niche markets to mainstream consumer electronics, with advancements in AI and AR technology expected to position smart glasses as the next major computing platform after smartphones [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and implemented an export quota system for 2026-2027, limiting exports to 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1][4][6] Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced the extension of the cobalt export ban and the introduction of an export quota system, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The export quota will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those without active mining operations for five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [2][3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with specific monthly allocations [3] - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons, managed by ARECOMS [3] - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust it based on market conditions [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The new export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in global cobalt supply, with shortages projected at 12.2, 8.8, and 9.7 million tons for 2025-2027 [4][5] - Global cobalt demand is anticipated to grow, with expected demand of 25.7 million tons in 2025 and 27.5 million tons in 2026, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5] Group 4: Government's Strategic Intent - The consistency of the Congolese government's cobalt policies reflects its commitment to controlling global cobalt prices and managing supply effectively [6] - The government is expected to adjust supply flexibly to stabilize cobalt prices, marking a new phase in the global cobalt industry [6]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is considering extending its cobalt export ban, which could benefit companies with cobalt mining capacities in Indonesia, as DRC holds a dominant position in global cobalt resource supply [1] - The DRC has allowed the export of cobalt salts that have been smelted and refined locally, benefiting a domestic company engaged in cobalt smelting cooperation and holding cobalt salt export quotas [1] - The Indonesian government has shut down some nickel smelting facilities under the guise of environmental reviews, leading to a clear upward trend in nickel prices; a specific company relying on its hydrometallurgical nickel capacity could significantly increase related business profits [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut of 25 basis points, with expectations for at least two more cuts this year, leading to positive market feedback [1] - Following a phone call between the US and Chinese leaders discussing various issues including TikTok, market reactions have been generally positive, contributing to new highs in US stocks [1] - The upcoming press conference on financial industry achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is anticipated to provide market-friendly news, particularly regarding the September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - The focus on technology is renewed, with the State Council researching the implementation of domestic product standards in government procurement [1] - Alibaba's 2025 Cloud Summit will take place from September 24-26 in Hangzhou, gathering over 2,000 guests from more than 50 countries to discuss trends in AI and cloud computing [1] Group 3: Company Insights - Hongteng Precision - Hongteng Precision Technology, part of the Hon Hai Group, has shown significant progress in AI, particularly in high-margin products like backplane connectors and liquid cooling systems [3][4] - The company has developed optical modules that have been adopted by major clients like Microsoft, with expectations to reduce valuation to around 8 times, indicating high growth potential [3] - Despite challenges in traditional consumer electronics, the new business layouts in liquid cooling systems are seen as promising for future performance [3] Group 4: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending its cobalt export ban for at least two more months while working on a quota system to replace the current ban [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply, with significant declines in imports noted, indicating a low inventory level in the industry [5][6] - The strategic importance of cobalt, particularly for military and aerospace applications, is underscored by the US Department of Defense's concerns over supply chain disruptions due to the DRC's policies [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Key stocks to watch in the Hong Kong market include Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Jinchuan International (02362), and Minmetals Resources (01208) [7] - The Hang Seng Index is showing bullish signals, with expectations for continued upward movement due to favorable liquidity conditions and industry growth [8]

Company Insights - OpenAI has signed a hardware manufacturing agreement with Luxshare Precision, planning to launch its first consumer device by the end of 2026 [2] - Luxshare Precision may not be the only Apple supplier involved, as GoerTek is also expected to provide speaker modules for OpenAI's first consumer hardware product [2] - Sunflower plans to acquire 100% equity of high-end semiconductor materials company Xipu Materials [12] Industry Insights - The State Council's Food Safety Office is accelerating the formulation of national standards for prepared dishes and promoting their use in the catering sector to better protect consumer rights [3] - The demand for high-performance computing chips is expected to surge due to the rapid development of AI and autonomous driving applications, increasing capital attention on the GPU industry chain [9] - The 11th batch of drug procurement has introduced a "no internal competition" rule, optimizing procurement rules to avoid excessive low-price competition and ensuring product quality and reasonable profit margins for generic drug companies [10] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban, which may lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices as inventory depletion accelerates [11]

Group 1 - The eleventh batch of national drug centralized procurement will open bidding on October 21, covering 55 varieties and 162 specifications, with a focus on key areas such as antiviral drugs and innovative treatments for kidney diseases [4] - The procurement process emphasizes principles such as "stabilizing clinical use, ensuring quality, preventing collusion, and countering excessive competition," marking a milestone in centralized procurement after seven years [4] - The new pricing control mechanism aims to prevent excessively low bids that could disrupt fair competition among companies [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates the People's Bank of China to restart government bond trading operations as the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8% [5] - From August to December 2024, the central bank's net purchases of government bonds reached 1 trillion yuan, providing crucial support for the bond market's liquidity and stability [5] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway has completely exited its investment in BYD, with the stock price increasing approximately 3890% during the holding period [6] - The exit from BYD marks a significant shift for Berkshire, which had been a prominent investor in the electric vehicle manufacturer [6] Group 4 - The ETF market has seen explosive growth, surpassing 5 trillion yuan in scale, but concerns about market volatility and liquidity issues in ETF constituent stocks are emerging [8] - Recent market fluctuations have raised alarms about the sustainability of high returns in the ETF sector, highlighting potential risks in the rapidly expanding market [8] Group 5 - Over 80 equity funds have doubled their performance this year, with more than 97% of equity funds achieving positive returns [12] - The strong performance of equity funds is attributed to increased market activity and a favorable investment environment, with significant gains in sectors like technology and healthcare [12] Group 6 - The global smart glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with shipments reaching 1.487 million units in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 82.3% [16] - OpenAI has secured a hardware manufacturing agreement with Luxshare Precision, indicating a shift towards end-side AI products, with anticipated product launches in late 2026 or early 2027 [16]