铜月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 短期宏观情绪压制，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应紧张格局不变，边际紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏宽松。1月中国精炼铜产量维持高位，预计2月产量环比下滑、同比增长。 ◆ 需求：1月中国精炼铜表观消费预估小幅增长，2月下游开工将季节性走弱。海外制造业景气度回暖，需求预期改善。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差震荡，价差引起美国铜库存在COMEX与LME流动加大。 ◆ 库存：1月上期所、COMEX和LME库存均增加，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估2月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年2月，下游迎来季节性淡季，国内铜库存将继续累积，但铜价回调的背景下，预计累库量不会超季节性。海外制造业景气 度改善带动需求预期回暖。宏观层面，贵金属、比特币走弱和美股AI板块下跌仍对市场情绪形 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [5][52] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US manufacturing index reached a new high since August 2022, while the service index declined slightly. US ADP employment was lower than expected, and the release of the non - farm employment report was postponed. The large - scale selling of the world's largest silver leveraged ETF added selling pressure to the precious metal market, and market risk appetite was poor [5][12] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to improve the copper reserve system, expand the national strategic copper reserve scale, and explore a commercial reserve mechanism. It also considers including copper concentrates in the reserve scope [5] - Globally, copper mine supply is facing structural challenges, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap in 2026. In China, refined copper production remained high in December 2025, and there were plans for smelter overhauls in January 2026 [5][20][25] - The import volume of scrap copper in China reached a new monthly high in December 2025. The production enthusiasm of refined copper rod enterprises declined significantly in December 2025, and the increase in production in January 2026 was limited [25][29][33] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption. The inventory of global electrolytic copper increased significantly, and the discount range of domestic and foreign copper spot prices decreased [36][44][49] - The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, but there may be policies to improve and stabilize expectations. China's automobile production and sales reached a new high in 2025, and the new - energy vehicle market continued to grow. The new photovoltaic installation scale is expected to decline in 2026 and then return to an upward trend [39][41] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged [8] - **Bearish factors**: Refined copper production remains at a high level, refined copper inventory continues to accumulate, precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper mine supply**: In 2025, global copper mine supply was severely disrupted, and the supply of copper concentrates had a large gap. The supply is expected to decline in 2026 and turn to a more relaxed state in 2027 [20] - **Copper concentrate TC**: The spot TC/RC of copper concentrates is in a deep negative range, and the profit of the smelting end is under pressure. Chile has postponed the goal of annual copper production exceeding 6 million tons and lowered production expectations [23] - **Refined copper production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In January 2026, there were plans for smelter overhauls and new plant startups [25] - **Scrap copper import**: In December 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [29] - **Refined copper rod production**: In December 2025, the production of refined copper rods in China decreased significantly, and the production increase in January 2026 was limited [33] - **Refined - scrap copper price difference**: As of February 5, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 3,380 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [36] - **Electrolytic copper inventory**: The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper increased, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper also increased [45] - **Copper spot premium**: On February 5, the premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot was around - 105 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around 77.58 US dollars/ton, with the discount range narrowing [49] 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [52]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户 应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2026/2/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 104,500.00 | | +5920.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,412.00 | +520.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) -280.00 | | -580.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 191,887.00 | -2923.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) -70,0 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 98,580.00 | -5100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,710.00 | -447.50↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 300.00 | +520.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 194,809.00 | -28125.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -70,006.00 | -2533.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 174,975.00 | -1100.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 233,004.00 | +7067.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 41,800.00 | -1800.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 158,527.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 100,460.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and copper prices fell from high levels. The recent copper price trend was a typical market driven by macro - sentiment and transmitted through the precious metal market. The sentiment reversed in the second half of last week, likely due to Trump's nomination of "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed Chairman, leading to a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in copper prices. In the future, the copper market will present a complex pattern of short - term sentiment fluctuations and medium - to long - term fundamental support [4][58]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and aluminum prices also fell from high levels. Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The financial attribute of aluminum is relatively weaker than that of copper, resulting in less price fluctuation. High aluminum prices made downstream buyers generally wait - and - see, and the industrial support may increase as prices drop. Technically, the 24,000 level can be monitored [5][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - In the first half of the week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, benefiting the non - ferrous sector. The drop in the US dollar index and the sharp rise in gold reflected the intention of global asset allocation, i.e., "de - dollarization". In the second half of the week, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a stronger dollar, which first caused a sharp sell - off in the silver market and then affected the base metal market, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [9]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price trend was affected by macro - sentiment. The market was initially optimistic due to the rise of precious metals, but sentiment reversed later, causing copper prices to fall [4]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 30, the copper ore port inventory was 523,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 46,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 187,000 tons [25]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,800 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons; the COMEX + LME inventory was 751,200 tons, a weekly increase of 23,600 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Processing - According to SMM on January 29, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises from January 23 to January 29 was 69.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.9 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The main contract once reached the 26,000 level but then dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the commodity market and profit - taking [5][59]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On January 30, the bauxite port inventory was 2,419.07 million tons, a decrease of 309,300 tons from last week and an increase of 649,070 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [42]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 501,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from last week [46]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Processing - Last week, aluminum prices rose, and the processing fees in most regions decreased significantly, reflecting the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream buyers. On January 29, the aluminum rod inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from last week. High aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [52][54].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a collective decline, with the main copper futures contract hitting the limit down at 98,580.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.01% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a surge in gold and silver prices, while the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has caused significant declines in precious and non-ferrous metals [2] - Concerns over supply disruptions from South American mines have intensified, while domestic copper production remains high due to the availability of scrap copper as a smelting raw material [2] Group 2 - Domestic copper inventories as of February 2 were reported at 340,800 tons, showing a decrease of 600 tons from January 26 but an increase of 5,000 tons from January 29 [2] - The overall smelting output continues to grow despite a slight month-on-month decline in profits, indicating a potential adjustment phase for copper prices in the short term [3] - Key factors to monitor include changes in the U.S. dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3]

对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，随着贵金属的历史级调整，铜价也难免受到冲击调整，虽然调整力度弱 于贵金属，但1月份以来主要由资金推动行情的涨幅部分很有可能受到挑战。进入2月份，市场将首先消 化贵金属调整带来的冲击，也面临基本面方面疲软的现货、持续累积的库存以及春节前后的需求真空， 构成了价格短期回调的压力。 沪铜低开低走，午后和国际铜双双封死跌停板，表现尤为弱势。美联储政策预期边际转鹰，贵金属遭遇 抛售，悲观情绪持续蔓延，叠加需求隐忧，沪铜大跌，期价下破十万关口。 （文华综合） 2月2日国内市场电解铜现货库存34.08万吨，较29日增0.50万吨。周末国产货源仍有陆续到货，且由于部 分时间铜价大幅冲高，同时日内波动加剧，下游企业采购情绪相对谨慎，市场需求仍较为有限，仓库出 库量偏少，库存因此维持增加。此前铜价高企，下游需求不佳，社会库存加速累积，今日铜价大幅回 落，不过国内临近春节，下游需求或难有亮眼表现，关注现货贴水是否持续收窄和库存变化。 上周五美国总统特朗普宣布提名沃什出任下一任美联储主席，美联储政策预期边际转鹰，独立性担忧缓 解，美指出现反弹，叠加贵金属高位坠落，有色集体下跌，甚至出现跌停潮。1月份，中国 ...

2月2日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌互现：上证指数跌0.93%，深证成指跌0.54%，创业板指涨0.65%。上午市场窄幅震荡，截至发稿，上证指数、深证成指跌 幅有所收窄，创业板指持续飘红。 盘面上，有色金属、石油石化等板块继续走低，黄金珠宝、工业金属、铜产业、先进封装、存储器、油气开采等方向大跌；特高压、白酒、饮料、智能电 网等概念股活跃。 来看详情—— 有色金属板块暴跌 开盘逾30股跌停 2月2日，有色金属板块开盘暴跌，指数跌近7%；黄金珠宝、工业金属、稀有金属、小金属等方面集体走低，逾30股在竞价阶段跌停。 晓程科技盘初20cm跌停，山东黄金、江西铜业等大市值个股纷纷跌停。 | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 * | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 54.00c -13.50 -20.00% | | 2 | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | 7.44c -0.83 -10.04% | | 3 | 000751 | 锌业股份 | 6.19c -0.69 -10.03% | | 4 | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | 18.59c -2 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell by 4.75% to 103,190 yuan, while London copper dropped to around 13,050 USD [4][17] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish due to Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which has reduced interest rate cut expectations and led to a broader decline in the non-ferrous sector [5][17] - Global copper inventory increased to 1.031 million tons, with domestic copper slightly decreasing by 0.16 thousand tons to 332 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory rose by about 0.45 thousand tons to 175 thousand tons [5][17] - Despite short-term pressure on copper prices from market risk sentiment adjustments, strong supply constraints may limit further price declines, with a reference range for today's main copper futures set at 100,000 to 104,500 yuan per ton [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair has led to tightening liquidity expectations, causing the non-ferrous sector to give back gains [6][18] - Nickel ore shipments from the Philippines are hindered by weather conditions, while supply from Indonesian nickel laterite is also tight due to rainfall [6][18] - The market for nickel iron is showing average transaction performance, and stainless steel faces oversupply pressure with limited terminal demand [6][18] - The operational strategy suggests light short positions in nickel and stainless steel, with reference ranges for nickel at 130,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 13,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [6][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The alumina market showed a strong performance last week, with the May contract experiencing a reduction in positions [20][21] - A strike at a Chinese-funded mine in Guinea, which produces 15 million tons annually, has raised concerns about ore supply, although negotiations are ongoing [20][21] - The price of long-term contracts for ore has been reduced to 62 USD per ton, and domestic alumina production costs are expected to decrease significantly starting in March [20][21] - The operational strategy remains focused on short positions due to ongoing oversupply pressures in the alumina market, with reference ranges for the May contract set at 2,550 to 2,900 yuan per ton [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weakness last Friday, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which is perceived as hawkish [23][24] - The processing fee for zinc is expected to see a slight increase in February, while supply is projected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [23][24] - Zinc ingot inventories have been declining for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to reduced supply and slow arrivals [23][24] - The operational strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for zinc, with the main contract expected to trade within a range of 24,800 to 26,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on including recycled lead as a deliverable commodity, which may reduce delivery disruptions in the future [24] - The supply of primary lead remains tight, although some previously shut-down smelters are resuming operations, leading to a relatively loose spot supply [24] - The lead market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the main contract projected to operate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with silver dropping over 20%, attributed to crowded long positions and panic selling triggered by Waller's nomination [27] - The market had seen four consecutive weeks of gains prior to the pullback, leading to a high concentration of long positions that were vulnerable to correction [27] - The operational strategy suggests reducing long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [27] - Reference ranges for gold are set at 1,000 to 1,100 yuan per gram, silver at 19,000 to 25,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 520 to 570 yuan per gram, and palladium at 395 to 440 yuan per gram [27]

1月的商品市场明星非金银莫属。然而，在宏观变局与产业新旧动能共振的格局下，有色金属板块表现 同样可圈可点。随着贵金属市场经历巨震、波动渐趋平缓，投资者的目光开始寻找新的结构性机遇。其 中，铜与铝1月表现尤为活跃，两者走势呈现"你追我赶"的轮动格局。 1月，地缘政治不稳定因素推升了市场避险情绪。白银因海外供应紧张而飙涨，其剧烈波动显著干扰了 铜铝的运行节奏。1月末，随着凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，贵金属市场遭遇重挫，并拖累铜铝 价格。 然而，这些外部干扰因素正在快速被市场消化。美联储1月议息会议维持利率不变，2月暂无议息安排， 市场焦点转向地缘政治等宏观事件。更重要的是，前期扰动市场的两大不确定性——美国对关键矿产的 关税政策方向与美联储主席人选已阶段性明朗。随着相关套利活动趋于停滞，预计白银价格对铜铝的干 扰将逐步减弱，铜铝的定价也将逐步回归自身供需面。 铜市场正面临数年未见的供应紧张格局。2026年铜精矿长单加工费（TC/RC）定为零美元／吨，印证了 矿端供应极度紧张的现实。尽管高位硫酸价格贴补了冶炼利润，但矿源紧张仍是贯穿全年的主题。与此 同时，国内外废铜供应因季节性与政策监管趋严而持续紧张，进一步 ...