Monetary Policy - On December 31, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion CNY at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 502.8 billion CNY after accounting for 26 billion CNY maturing reverse repos [1] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.22% [2] - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil and petrochemicals underperformed [2] Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise on December 31, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks. Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Zijin Mining also experiencing gains [3][6] Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper's stock reached a peak of 55.28 CNY, with a trading volume of 584,500 hands and a market capitalization of 191.32 billion CNY [4] - Jiamai Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 CNY per share [7][10] - The stock of Hengtong Light surged by 1007.95% upon its debut on the Beijing Stock Exchange, opening at 350 CNY per share [11][13] Company Announcements - Jiamai Packaging announced that its main business had not undergone significant changes, and there are no plans for major asset restructuring in the near future [10] - Hengtong Light, established in 2011, focuses on passive optical device products and has a client base that includes major companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [11][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin Industry - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, with a steady increase in imports in November and a significant increase in Indonesia's exports in November. The trading volume of the exchange in December also remained at a relatively high level. - In the demand aspect, tin solder enterprises in South China showed certain resilience, while those in East China were more obviously affected. - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, and the tin price has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended to be cautious in operation and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations is more of an emotional drive, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended that pre - existing long positions be closed at high prices [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum prices and the market trading became light. The cost is strongly supported, but the demand is weak. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [5]. Zinc Industry - The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, but the opening of the zinc ore import window may ease the short - term supply pressure. The increase in refined zinc production is limited, while the demand side is better, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. - In the future, the price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventories [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. The price is expected to enter a shock adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the support level [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a slight decline, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production reduction [13]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon futures further reduced positions and rebounded. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industrial chain by raising prices, but the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [14]. Nickel Industry - The Indonesian government's plan to cut nickel production has driven up market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market was driven by raw material nickel, and the market sentiment improved. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. It is expected to maintain a strong shock adjustment in the short term [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a large amplitude. The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The price is supported by fundamentals, but the new driving force is limited. The market is affected by market sentiment, and the disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock before the New Year's Day [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 5.82% to 323,500 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 12.50% to 350 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 26.92% to 95.00 dollars/ton [2]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 7.19% to - 13,988.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at 7.87 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 70.73%, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 18.06% [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, the output of refined tin decreased by 0.81%, the import volume of refined tin increased by 127.19%, and the export volume increased by 31.62%. - The average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.76%, and the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises increased by 0.96% [2]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, social inventory increased by 2.02%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68%, and LME inventory increased by 3.60% [2]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.38% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - The prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged [4]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 34.3 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 1.1 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread of AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of AL 2602 - 2603 remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of alumina decreased by 4.44%, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas output decreased by 3.50%. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83%, and the export volume increased by 116.23%. - The operating rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory of various types increased to varying degrees [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - The prices of various types of SMM ADC12 decreased by 0.45%. - The refined - scrap price differences of various types of aluminum increased to varying degrees [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 25.0 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. - The import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.19%, and the export volume decreased by 0.97%. - The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.06% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.60% to 23,300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 175.63 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 10.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of refined zinc decreased by 3.56%, the import volume decreased by 3.22%, and the export volume increased by 402.59%. - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased to varying degrees. - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 10.12%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 3.10% to 97,620 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 90.00 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 33.11% [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 1.05%, and the import volume decreased by 3.90%. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 27.55% [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of some types changed to varying degrees [13]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees, such as the spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 16.67% [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national output of industrial silicon decreased by 11.17%, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. - The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, and the output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 21.78% [13]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 2.33%, the social inventory increased by 0.36%, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.09% [13]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 37.45% [14]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 4.16%, and the spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees [14]. Fundamental Data - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 3.19%, and the monthly output decreased by 10.35%. - The monthly output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%, the import volume decreased by 27.05%, and the export volume increased by 108.68% [14]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.65% to 132,550 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.55% to 136,150 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 decreased by 14.82% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP increased by 0.19%, and the cost from integrated high - grade nickel matte decreased by 3.60% [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2604 - 2605 increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The output of refined nickel in China decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.85% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.77%. - The prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.27% [18]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, and 2604 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [18]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the output in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 9.68%, and the export volume increased by 13.18%. - The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.50% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. - The price of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.68% [20]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, and 2601 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume decreased by 7.64%, and the export volume increased by 208.75%. - The total inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [20].

今年下半年以来，全球铜矿供应扰动不断，矿山供应紧张的压力已逐步传导至冶炼环节。11月底，中国 铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）宣布，鉴于铜精矿加工费持续走低，2026年度成员企业将降低矿铜产能 负荷10%以上。这直接加剧了市场对精炼铜供应的担忧。 伦敦金属交易所电子显示屏上的报价不断跳动，最终定格在11448.50美元／吨——今年12月3日，伦铜 突破了自2021年5月以来的盘整区间，再度刷新历史新高。前一天，伦敦金属期货交易所约三分之一的 仓单被注销，加剧了市场对于铜市场供应紧张的担忧，并将"铜博士"推向历史峰值。 根据多位知情人士透露，大宗商品贸易巨头摩科瑞（Mercuria）已于12月2日取消了相应仓单，计划提 取价值约4.6亿美元的铜金属。有分析指出，这批从交易所体系流出的铜，很大一部分正被运往美国。 而同时，为规避市场预期中美国可能对铜加征的关税，贸易商正提前行动，将金属运往美国。尽管相关 政策细节存在不确定性，但美国此前已将铜列为《国防生产法案》下的关键矿产，试图保障自身资源供 应。这导致了一个独特的现象：全球铜的过剩库存几乎全部集中在美国，而世界其他地区的供应则在快 速收紧。 据ICSG数据，20 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector continues to strengthen. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and different metals have different investment outlooks based on macro factors, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. For copper, although the industrial side is weak recently, the macro sentiment is positive, and the copper price is expected to rise further. For zinc, the smelting cost center has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment. For nickel and stainless steel, the nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9][87][195] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and various metal prices such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.0 with a daily increase of 0.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.69%, and an annual decrease of 9.63%. The price of Shanghai copper is 98,720 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.61%, a weekly increase of 5.95%, and an annual increase of 33.82% [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Positive. The better - than - expected US economic data shows strong economic resilience, and the Japanese government's large - scale budget plan improves global liquidity. The Chinese central bank maintains the LPR unchanged, and there is still room for domestic interest rate cuts [9] - **Raw Material**: Positive. The spot processing fee of copper ore is slightly lower, the port inventory has slightly increased, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 has changed [9] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The profit of smelters using spot copper ore has decreased, while the profit of those using long - term contracts has also declined [9] - **Demand**: Negative. The high copper price has led to large - scale shutdowns of downstream enterprises, and the operating rate of refined copper rods has further declined [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. It is the domestic consumption off - season, and the global visible copper inventory has significantly increased [9] - **Investment View**: Bullish. Although the industrial side is weak, the macro sentiment is positive, and there is a continuous premium for US copper, so it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis when the price is low; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The central bank of China implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the better - than - expected US GDP growth and other factors have boosted market sentiment [87] - **Raw Material**: Slightly positive. The domestic processing fee has been reduced, and the supply of domestic ores is still tight, but the short - term processing fee is expected to remain low and stable [87] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The smelting profit is inverted again, but the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase in January [87] - **Demand**: Slightly negative. Affected by environmental protection, holidays, and the off - season, the galvanizing operating rate is expected to be weak [87] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The social inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased, and the price ratio has been adjusted [87] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The smelting cost center of zinc has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment [87] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [87] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The better - than - expected US GDP data and the decline of the US dollar index have boosted the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention is paid to the introduction of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [195] - **Raw Material**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026, and the nickel ore premium in Indonesia is firm. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines has decreased, and the domestic port inventory has decreased [195] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel at the end of the year has slightly decreased, the price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the production of nickel sulfate has remained stable [195] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is expected to weaken [195] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level [195] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, macro news, and Indonesian policies [195] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a short - term and low - price basis; do not conduct arbitrage; enterprises can conduct short - selling hedging when the price is high [195]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].