公司董事长兼首席执行官侯晨光先生评论说："中国黄金国际在2025年连续两个季度净利润创公司历史 最佳，彰显了公司卓越的运营能力。2026年，公司将稳健推进两座矿山生产运营，落实甲玛矿发展规 划，推进长山壕矿深部资源开发和资源综合利用进程，以优异业绩为股东提供长期稳定回报。" 格隆汇1月28日丨中国黄金国际(02099.HK)发布2026年年度产量指引，甲玛矿：预计铜产量约1.40亿磅 至1.49亿磅(约6.35万吨至6.75万吨)，金产量约7.073万盎司至7.555万盎司(约2.2吨至2.35吨)，银产量约 418万盎司至482万盎司(约130吨至150吨)；长山壕矿：预计金产量约7.073万盎司至8.359万盎司(约2.2吨 至2.6吨)。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [8] 2. Core View of the Report In the context of strong precious metals, the non - ferrous sector is unlikely to experience a significant correction. Even at the end of the year with high inventories, copper prices mainly fluctuate strongly. As the Spring Festival approaches, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. For enterprises with hedging needs, if copper prices hover around 100,000 yuan/ton, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on a two - week usage cycle and not to build excessive virtual inventories for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On January 26, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 102,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,880 yuan/ton, a 0.53% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 103,260 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 103,460 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 300 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 230 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,200 to 102,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that the spot discount will remain under pressure. If downstream purchasing willingness remains weak, the market may continue the pattern of deep discounts and low trading volumes [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. COMEX silver once soared by over 16%, and spot silver rose by nearly 14%, but then both fell back. COMEX gold and spot gold once broke through the 5000 - dollar and 5100 - dollar marks, and finally closed up 0.5%. Spot palladium once rose 7% but ended up falling over 3%. Geopolitically, the European Parliament has not decided whether to resume the approval process of the EU - US trade agreement. Economically, in November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations [3] 3.2 Mining End On the evening of January 23, Zangge Mining announced that the second - phase project of Julong Copper Mine of its subsidiary was officially put into operation on January 23, 2026. After reaching production capacity, the annual ore mining and processing scale will increase from 45 million tons to 105 million tons, and the annual output of copper ore will increase from 190,000 tons in 2025 to about 300,000 - 350,000 tons [4] 3.3 Smelting and Import From the close of trading on January 28, 2026, the daily price limit range of listed international copper futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 10%, and the general trading margin ratio to 11%. Last week, LME copper inventories accelerated accumulation, reaching 171,700 tons, the highest in eight months. SHFE copper inventories also continued to accumulate, reaching 225,937 tons, the highest in nine and a half months [5] 3.4 Consumption In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, a 10.51 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 16.03 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 58.71%, a 2.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 15.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. It is expected that next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 71.20%, and that of copper cable enterprises to 60.23% [6][7] 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts changed by 3450 tons to 170,525 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1479 tons to 145,314 tons. On January 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensity ratings for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgments. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating a weak bearish trend, 0 indicating a neutral trend, and 1 indicating a weak bullish trend. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It presents the latest market data, macro and industry news, and offers trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each commodity. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies, showing different trends and characteristics. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Comex gold 2602 had a 2.11% increase. Gold trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Approaching 100. Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51%. Silver trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Followed the correction of gold and silver, but the trend did not reverse. Platinum trend intensity is 1 [26]. - **Palladium**: Looking for a bottom and then continuing the trend. Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, the price was on the strong side. Trend intensity is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: Showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trended weakly, with an intensity of 0; Casting aluminum alloy fluctuated at a high level, with an intensity of 1 [22]. - **Nickel**: The situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise of ferronickel supported the price center. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: Although not directly mentioned in detail, it affected related products. For example, the price of PX was affected by the movement of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices [67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Traded in a range, affected by industry and capital factors. Trend intensity for both is 0 [55][56]. - **Power Coal**: Supply and demand tended to be weak, and the coal price stabilized with a slight upward exploration. [59] - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened lower, maintaining a high - volatility trend. Trend intensity is - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the upward trend, with the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market reaching a low for the year. Trend intensity is - 1 [107]. Chemicals - **P - Xylene (PX)**: Supply was recovering, with a strong unilateral trend and a reverse spread in the month - spread. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **PTA**: Had a strong unilateral trend. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **MEG**: The trend remained strong. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **Rubber**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [74]. - **LLDPE**: The US dollar offers were scarce, and upstream quotes were rising. Trend intensity is - 1 [77]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material was strong, but profit repair was limited. Trend intensity is - 1 [80]. - **Paper Pulp**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [83]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. Trend intensity is - 1 [88]. - **Styrene**: Traded in a strong - side oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [92]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. Trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - **LPG**: Affected by short - term geopolitical factors. Trend intensity is 0. Propylene had strong demand support, and the spot price rose strongly. Trend intensity is 1 [98]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, traded in a high - level oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the upcoming implementation of the US 45Z subsidy, the oil - meal ratio was rising. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal might follow the adjustment. Trend intensity is - 1 [125]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price adjusted and oscillated. Trend intensity is 0 [125]. - **Corn**: Traded in a slightly upward oscillation. Trend intensity is 1 [128]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a low - level consolidation. Trend intensity is 0 [132]. - **Cotton**: Consolidated and awaited new drivers. Trend intensity is 1 [137]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. Trend intensity is 0 [143]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season demand was lower than expected, and supply contradictions emerged. Trend intensity is - 2 [146]. - **Peanuts**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the market sentiment eased from the Greenland event in the macro - market last week, copper prices rebounded slightly today. Due to fundamental disturbances and the recurrence of macro - level sentiment, copper prices rose steadily and slightly last week. Affected by the sharp decline of the US dollar today, copper prices gapped up, but the upward trend of Shanghai copper before the Spring Festival is expected to be suppressed due to the weakening of the demand side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - **Macro aspect**: US President Trump announced a 10% tariff increase on imported goods from 8 European countries starting February 1, 2026, and to 25% starting June 1, to pressure negotiations on Greenland's sovereignty. After he declared not to use force on Greenland, market tensions eased. With the strengthening of the yen, the US dollar declined continuously during the week, supporting non - ferrous metal prices [3]. - **Supply aspect**: On Thursday, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile stopped production due to a strike caused by the failure of collective bargaining between the largest union and the company. The mine's expected cathode copper production in 2025 was 29,000 - 32,000 tons. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a further downward trend. SMM estimated that China's electrolytic copper production in January would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The start - up rate of scrap copper enterprises decreased, and the scrap copper market's supply and demand were affected [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Approaching the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises started their holidays, with low procurement willingness for raw materials. The performance of new - energy vehicles at the terminal was poor, while there was a slight increase in traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners [3]. 3.2沪铜价格走势 (Shanghai Copper Price Trend) - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The weekly high was 102,000 yuan/ton, the low was 99,210 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.77%, and the range increase/decrease was + 0.57% [5]. 3.3沪铜现货行情 (Shanghai Copper Spot Market) - As of January 26, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 135 yuan/ton. Under the bearish sentiment of downstream enterprises, the spot was traded at a discount, and the sentiment is expected to remain unchanged in the short term [10]. 3.4伦铜价差结构 (LME Copper Spread Structure) - As of January 23, LME copper rose 0.43% during the week, closing at $12,980/ton, with a spot premium of - $59.5/ton [15]. 3.5铜精矿供给 (Copper Concentrate Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% cumulative year - on - year increase. In January 2026, there were strikes and road blockades in some Chilean mines, which were later resolved [19]. 3.6废铜供给 (Scrap Copper Supply) - In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Affected by policy changes and tax inspections, the supply and demand of the scrap copper market were affected [24]. 3.7冶炼厂费用 (Smelter Fees) - As of January 23, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.18 cents/pound. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable with a downward trend. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [29]. 3.8精炼铜供给 (Refined Copper Supply) - In December 2025, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons (an 11.38% increase). SMM estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January 2026 would decrease by 14,500 tons month - on - month and increase by 156,300 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024 [33]. 3.9表观需求 (Apparent Demand) - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [37]. 3.10下游消费 (Downstream Consumption) - Some copper rod enterprises have entered the holiday state, with a significant decline in the start - up rate. The copper foil market has no obvious fluctuations in transactions, with reduced new orders. Copper tube enterprises have increased low - price replenishment recently, and most small and medium - sized enterprises will start their holidays next week. The downstream demand for copper rods has begun to decline, and copper rod enterprises mainly maintain just - in - time inventory [41]. 3.11电网工程数据 (Power Grid Project Data) - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a 17.1% year - on - year increase. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts (a 41.9% increase), wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts (a 22.4% increase), hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts (a 3% increase), and nuclear power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts (a 7.6% increase) [45]. 3.12房地产基建数据 (Real Estate and Infrastructure Data) - In December 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [51]. 3.13汽车/新能源汽车产业数据 (Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data) - The Passenger Car Association predicted that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January 2026 would be about 1.8 million, a 20.4% month - on - month decrease and a flat - to - slightly - increasing year - on - year. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles were expected to reach 800,000, but the retail penetration rate dropped to 44.4%. In 2026, the vehicle purchase tax changed from exemption to half - collection, and there were subsidy policies for vehicle replacement [57]. 3.14全球各主要交易所铜库存 (Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges) - As of January 23, LME copper inventory increased by 28,125 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 3.31% increase), and was 33.72% lower year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 tons, a 3.63% week - on - week increase and 473.67% higher year - on - year. On January 22, the combined copper spot inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 120,600 tons, still increasing. As of January 23, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 146,800 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase, and cathode copper inventory was 225,900 tons, a 5.82% week - on - week increase [62][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the valuation of copper is neutral to bearish, with narrowing basis spreads inside and outside the market, narrowing spreads between refined and scrap copper, and continuously increasing global visible inventories. In terms of drivers, the decline in the US dollar index and copper concentrate prices is bullish, while the global manufacturing PMI is slightly bearish. At the price level, the easing of US - EU tensions, the emphasis on strategic resource demand in Germany, the loose domestic policy, and the record - high precious metal prices create a positive sentiment. The copper supply remains tight, with increased short - term disruptions at the mine end, and the demand for refined copper has improved after the price correction. Therefore, although the global visible inventory continues to increase and the LME North American inventory has marginally rebounded, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The expected trading range for the main SHFE copper contract this week is 99,000 - 105,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to decline, and the smelting profit is supplemented by the high price of sulfuric acid. The processing fee for crude copper is flat week - on - week. There are supply disruptions such as the strike at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper mine, road blockades at Escondida and Zaldivar mines, and some companies have adjusted their 2026 copper production guidance [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 905,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in SHFE, LME, and COMEX all increased. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 108,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons. The obvious inventory backlog shows relatively weak demand [11]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January - December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [11]. - **Demand**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The trading atmosphere in the spot market improved, and the overall transaction was stable. The downstream initial operating rate improved. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the substitution of scrap copper was still limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The main SHFE copper contract rose 0.57% this week, and LME copper rose 2.39% to 13,128.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products in different regions and varieties are provided, and the price differences are also shown [23]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot in East China was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M turned to a discount, reporting a premium of - 66.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import remained at a loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [26]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper Contango structure widened, and LME copper turned to a Contango structure [30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still contributed positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB appreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [38]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 58,000 tons to 905,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increase came from Shanghai, while the inventories in Jiangsu and Guangdong slightly declined. The LME inventory increase came from Asian and North American warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio continued to decline [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased month - on - month. It is expected to increase slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the refined copper production in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [54]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January - December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products, anode copper, and refined copper showed different trends in December 2025, and the import sources also changed [57][60][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The global and Chinese consumption structures of electrolytic copper are presented, with different proportions in industries such as power, home appliances, and construction [76]. - **PMI**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in December 2025 returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies were differentiated [79]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December 2025, the output of some copper - related downstream industries increased year - on - year, while others decreased. The cumulative output from January - December also showed different trends [82]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different copper - related downstream enterprises in December 2025 showed different trends, and the expected trends for January 2026 are also provided. The operating rates of some enterprises this week showed rebounds or stability [87][90][93][96][99][102]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper spread narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,865 yuan/ton on Friday [107]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 29,306 to 1,316,486 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2602 contract were 186,300 lots (bilateral) [112]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 20, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds decreased as of January 23 [115].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened low and rose within the day, but the impact of supply - related concerns on copper prices was small, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - Although the new energy market in the terminal showed poor performance in the short - term, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The profit of smelters has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has weakened. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's commissioning has been postponed, leading to an expected decline in refined copper production this month [1]. - The downstream copper procurement sentiment is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the new energy market was 117,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant decline of 67% compared to the same period in December 2025 [1]. - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has forced the mine to stop production. The mine was estimated to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and rose within the day [3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 135 yuan/ton. On January 22, 2026, the LME official price was 12,686 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 54 US dollars/ton [3]. Supply - side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.80 US cents/pound [8]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 146,800 tons, an increase of 3,620 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 168,300 tons, an increase of 8,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 559,300 short tons, an increase of 4,444 short tons from the previous period [12].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions from mining strikes, and long-term demand growth driven by emerging technologies like artificial intelligence [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 23, copper futures in Shanghai opened at 99,800 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 101,710 CNY/ton and closing at 101,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 640 CNY or 0.64% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract increased by 58,787 hands to 232,815 hands, while open interest rose by 8,970 hands to 231,437 hands [1]. - In the London market, copper prices also saw an increase, with the latest quote at 12,930 USD/ton, up by 90 USD or 0.70% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Global copper supply has been significantly impacted by mining accidents in regions such as Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to production interruptions [3]. - A strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to halt production of 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [3]. - Domestic refined copper production in China for December was reported at 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but market consumption remains subdued due to seasonal factors [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The U.S. economy shows mixed signals, with the GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 revised to 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3% [2]. - The core PCE price index, a key inflation measure, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and suggesting a stable short-term outlook from the Federal Reserve [2]. - A weakening U.S. dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more attractive to investors using other currencies, providing additional support for metal prices [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current low demand in the Chinese spot market, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive due to ongoing developments in artificial intelligence and energy transition [4]. - The market is expected to continue trading within a high range, influenced by both macroeconomic recovery and supply constraints from mining disruptions [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rising risk sentiment in the copper market supports copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,700, down 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100,270, down 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,840, up 0.62%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 321,730, a decrease of 121,398 from the previous day, and the open interest was 647,275, an increase of 772. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 28,201, an increase of 4,664, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,559 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 143,173, a decrease of 2,408, and LME Copper inventory was 168,250, an increase of 8,850. The cancellation warrant ratio was 27.99%, a decrease of 1.38% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and various spreads such as spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to continuous - first contract spread, etc., all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator met expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with robust growth in personal spending. Pan Gongsheng said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - **Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year, refined copper imports decreased by 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year, and scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 TC/RC with global miners [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper price trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put [7] Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week has slightly affected the market's outlook on the demand for non-ferrous metals, with the copper variety also being affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper prices, weak downstream demand, and recent obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern, with an expected trading range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 21, 2026, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 100,550 yuan/ton and closed at 100,260 yuan/ton, basically flat from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 80 yuan/ton to the current-month contract, with an average discount of 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 99,820 - 100,300 yuan/ton. The market supply was clearly differentiated, with good-quality copper like Guixi and Jinchuan selling quickly due to tight supply, and the price of wet-process copper remaining relatively firm. Downstream procurement showed structural characteristics, with leading enterprises being more active in purchasing, and some end-users showing significantly increased acceptance when the copper price was below 99,500 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to remain stable today supported by the holders' willingness to hold prices [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: The situation in Greenland has taken a turn for the better. US President Trump announced an agreement framework with NATO Secretary-General Rutte on the Greenland issue. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO member states. Trump also said that the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1 will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks, with all three major indices up more than 1%. The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22 local time [3] - Economic Forecast: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month, when most respondents still expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [3] - Mining: On January 21, Rio Tinto announced its Q4 2025 production results. The company's copper production in Q4 2025 was 240,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the annual production in 2025 was 883,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the upper limit of the revised guidance target (860,000 - 875,000 tons). This growth was mainly due to the successful production increase at the Oyu Tolgoi project, where the underground mine development project has been fully completed. On January 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced that it has submitted a list of targeted mineral projects, including manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium projects, to the US for investment [4] - Smelting and Imports: On January 20, the spot price of LME copper showed a significant premium over the forward futures price, with the "Tom/next" spread reaching the highest level since the historical supply shortage in 2021. The spread once soared to a $100 premium, which usually indicates a surge in spot demand. This fluctuation has triggered a new round of shocks in the LME copper market. LME data shows that as of last Friday, the long positions held by three independent entities accounted for at least 30% of the January open contracts. If held to maturity, these positions will require the delivery of more than 130,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total inventory available for immediate withdrawal in the LME warehousing system [5] - Consumption: The copper price has been fluctuating in a narrow range. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream consumption boost is limited. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, the market demand is relatively stable. But since the overall orders of the downstream market this week have been mediocre, downstream enterprises have basically maintained a strategy of purchasing on a just-in-time basis when the price is low [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 8,875 tons to 159,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -2,612 tons to 145,581 tons. On January 21, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the copper market, particularly in relation to AI data centers and macroeconomic factors affecting copper prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **AI Data Center Copper Demand**: The copper usage in AI data centers is underestimated, with expectations of reaching 530,000 tons by 2026 due to higher current demands [1][2]. - **US Tariff Policy**: Although the US has temporarily suspended new tariffs on critical mineral imports, a price floor mechanism indicates that regional premiums will persist, affecting global copper market sentiment [1][2]. - **LME Inventory Dynamics**: The increase in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory is attributed to the visibility of hidden stocks rather than a reversal in demand, indicating a market squeeze situation [1][2]. - **Optimistic Price Outlook for 2026**: The optimistic outlook for copper prices in 2026 is based on macroeconomic tailwinds (interest rate cuts), a projected global supply shortage of 630,000 tons, and low inventories in non-US regions leading to price increases [1][3][4]. - **Short-term Noise vs. Long-term Trends**: Short-term trading noise, such as adjustments in AI data center copper usage and tariff uncertainties, will not alter the long-term bullish logic for copper prices [1][4]. - **Price Support Levels**: Strong support for copper prices exists in the $98,000 to $99,000 range, with an expected average price of $12,500 per ton for the year, corresponding to approximately ¥100,000 for Shanghai copper [1][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Equity Market Recommendations**: Suggested stocks for investment include: - **Minmetals Resources**: High elasticity and significant future copper production potential [7]. - **Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum**: Well-managed companies with steady production increases [7]. - **Jincheng Mining and China Nonferrous Mining**: High compound growth rates expected [7]. - **Smelting Industry Trends**: The smelting sector is experiencing a trend towards consolidation, which may optimize domestic capacity and benefit from rising copper prices [7]. - **Smelting Industry Outlook**: The smelting industry is expected to benefit from high recovery rates and favorable pricing for by-products like sulfuric acid and sulfur, with processing fees at the bottom of the range [7]. Conclusion - The copper market remains bullish with strong support levels and optimistic price forecasts driven by demand from AI data centers and macroeconomic factors, despite short-term volatility and uncertainties in tariff policies [1][4][5].