智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采，Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量， | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbar旗下Cons tancia（2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日，加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show Lake运营和勘探 ...

Aura Minerals (AUGO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 06, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker0Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and a replay will be available at the company's website at oraminerals.com/investidoires. The presentation will also be available for download. This call is also available in Portuguese.To access, you can press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Por ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper in the US will change the global copper trade pattern, and the copper resources flowing to Europe and Asia will increase. The domestic copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, with demand dropping to the annual low and inventory starting to rise. The copper price is expected to face short - term pressure, but the downside space is limited. The copper price may reach the second high of the year in the fourth quarter [8][113]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's economy showed good performance in the first half of the year, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. Policy support may enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The domestic copper demand is expected to decline to a relative low in the third quarter, and the demand in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter. In the US, the manufacturing industry showed a phased contraction in the third quarter, and the overseas macro situation is expected to be bearish for copper prices in August [11][14][18]. 3.2 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine supply was relatively loose in the second quarter, but the annual growth rate is expected to be low. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metric tons. The tight supply at the mine end has not yet affected the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper production has reached a new high. However, the constraints on electrolytic copper production are increasing, and the production is expected to decline in the second half of the year [23][30][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: The supply of recycled copper resources remains tight, which will restrict the domestic electrolytic copper production [46]. - **Import and Export**: The US's exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper will end its siphoning effect on global copper resources. The domestic smelting plants' export willingness will decline, and the domestic supply will increase [50]. 3.3 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The domestic copper products output reached a record high in the first quarter and declined in the second quarter. The copper demand is expected to be weak in August and better in the fourth quarter. The annual output of copper products is expected to increase by more than 3% year - on - year [55]. - **Sub - sectors**: The output of refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips is expected to decline in August. The output of copper foil has increased against the trend, and the demand for new energy vehicles and power grid investment will continue to support copper demand [58][74][87]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - The global copper inventory showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with prominent structural contradictions. After the US exempted import tariffs on electrolytic copper, the global copper trade pattern will change, and the non - US copper supply will be relatively loose, suppressing copper prices [93]. 3.5 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply - demand structure was tight in 2025, with a supply gap of more than 1.1 million metric tons. The supply gap is expected to narrow gradually from 2026 [97]. 3.6 Copper Position Analysis - The total position of COMEX copper futures and options first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and started to increase in July. The net long position showed an upward trend, and the capital's driving effect on copper prices was still obvious [104]. 3.7 Arbitrage Analysis - The Shanghai - London copper ratio is expected to remain volatile in August. The copper - zinc ratio is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year [109]. 3.8 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - The copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, and the copper price will face short - term pressure. The downstream demand side is advised to slow down the pricing rhythm, and traders holding spot resources are advised to participate in selling hedging operations. The support range for the Shanghai copper main contract price is expected to be 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [113].

Summary of Evolution Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Evolution Mining - **CEO**: Laurie Conway, with over three decades of experience in the resources sector, previously held senior roles at Newcrest and BHP [1][2] Key Points Discussed Mental Health Initiatives - Emphasis on mental health in the mining industry, highlighting the challenges faced by workers due to long hours and isolation [3][4] - Initiatives include artistic projects to promote mental well-being among employees [5] Leadership Transition - Transition of leadership with Jake moving to a non-executive chair role, ensuring continuity with an experienced team [6][8] - New team members from Glencore, Agnico, and BHP are expected to enhance operational consistency and safety [7] Operational Performance - Evolution Mining has consistently executed its strategy since its inception in 2011, improving the quality of its asset portfolio [9] - FY 2025 results showed record cash flow of $787 million at a gold price of $10.50 per ounce, significantly below the current spot price [10] Mungari Expansion Project - Mungari's expansion project increased production capacity by 50%, aiming for 200,000 ounces per annum, with a mine life extended to 2038 [12] - The project was completed under budget by 9% and ahead of schedule by nine months [13] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold industry is experiencing a shift in investor confidence, with central banks increasing gold reserves [15][16] - The correlation between gold equities and gold prices has strengthened, with recent price movements indicating margin expansion for gold companies [18][19] Capital Allocation and Copper Assets - The company emphasizes disciplined capital allocation to ensure shareholder value during market cycles [20] - Copper assets, such as Ernest Henry and North Parks, contribute 25% to 30% of revenue, providing stability against gold price volatility [20][22] Portfolio Strength and Future Outlook - Evolution Mining's portfolio is characterized by high returns and long life, with Cowal generating over $880 million in operating cash flow [23][24] - Future projects, including the open pit continuation at Cowal, are expected to deliver significant returns [24] - The company anticipates continued cash generation from its operations, including Red Lake, which has a projected mine life of 17 years [28] Strategic Focus - Evolution Mining maintains a consistent strategy focused on margin over ounces, resulting in a 3.5-fold increase in production and an extended mine life from five to eighteen years [29] Additional Insights - The company has seen an increase in reserves and dividends, with expectations to continue this trend in a rising price environment [29]

Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs poses a stagflation risk to the US economy, delaying the Fed's easing path and boosting the US dollar, which suppresses the non - ferrous market. The unexpected absence of refined copper and cathode copper from the US copper tariff list causes the COMEX premium to rapidly return. In China, the "anti - involution + stable growth" policy boosts the domestic capital market, with increased fiscal counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - Fundamentally, overseas major mines face continuous disruptions, while domestic refined copper production is high and imports are rising, leading to a looser supply situation. In the consumption sector, traditional industries in China show signs of a slow season, while the copper demand of emerging industries (except for photovoltaics) remains active. The COMEX copper delivery window closes, and global inventories rise slightly [2]. - Overall, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs raises the US inflation expectation, and the Fed's hawkish signals cool the capital market's risk appetite. Although the overseas mine shortage persists, the absence of the US copper tariff weakens the support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Copper Market in July 2025 - Copper prices showed a range - bound trend in July. LME copper dropped from a high of $10,020 at the beginning of the month to $9,550 in the first half, then rebounded to $9,900 and faced resistance. SHFE copper traded in the range of 77,600 - 80,800 yuan. The unexpected US copper tariff situation and the unclear recovery of Panama's mine affected the prices. As of July 28, LME copper closed at $9,762.5/ton with a monthly decline of 1.17%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,000 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 0.03% [7]. - In July, domestic refined copper consumption entered the traditional off - season. Terminal demand was weak, and the social inventory first rose to 150,000 tons and then fell to 120,000 tons. The spot premium declined, and the processing fee of copper rods decreased [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 The US Signs Trade Agreements with Major Economies, and the Fed Maintains a Hawkish Stance - The US - EU and US - Japan trade agreements strengthen the US economic position, boost the US dollar, and increase the global capital market's risk appetite. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade negotiation is expected to have a positive impact on copper prices if an agreement is reached [13]. - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year is uncertain, but in the long run, the policy may become more accommodative due to economic slowdown pressure [14]. 2.2 The US Manufacturing Enters a Contraction Cycle, and the Eurozone's Composite PMI Reaches a One - Year High - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.8, still in the contraction range. Factory orders, employment, and other indicators show that the US manufacturing is facing challenges, and inflation may rise in the short term [15]. - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July rose to 49.8, with Germany playing an important role. The ECB may gradually slow down its easing pace [17]. 2.3 The "Anti - Involution + Stable Growth" Policy is Clear, and New Fields and Tracks will be Pre - deployed - China's "anti - involution" policy aims to address over - competition in industries such as photovoltaics. The "stable growth" policy focuses on key industries like automobiles and steel, and promotes innovation in emerging fields such as AI and bio - manufacturing [18]. - In June, China's industrial added value and the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry increased, which is beneficial for the overall economic development and copper demand [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Overseas Mainstream Mining Companies Increase Production in Q2, but the Global Concentrate Shortage Persists - As of the end of July, the copper concentrate spot TC remained at a low level of around - $40/ton. Some major mines like Panama and Kamoa - Kakula face production problems, and although some companies increased production in Q2, the global concentrate shortage continues [25]. - Anglo American, First Quantum, BHP, and other mining companies had different production performances in Q2, affected by factors such as ore grade, recovery rate, and natural disasters [26][27][28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Encounters Bottlenecks, and Overseas New Refined Copper Capacity Climbs Slowly - In China, from January to June, the electrolytic copper production increased, but the import of refined copper decreased. The supply of scrap copper from the US is expected to decline, but the overall scrap copper import is relatively stable. In the future, overseas refined copper supply may return to China [31][32]. - Overseas, many smelters face problems such as production disruptions and slow capacity ramping up. It is estimated that the actual increase in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is only about 150,000 tons [33]. 3.3 Refined Copper Imports will Increase in July, and the COMEX Copper Arbitrage Window is Closing - From January to June, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased, while the imports of copper ore concentrates increased. In June, refined copper imports increased. The US copper tariff policy affects the flow of copper and the arbitrage window is closing [56]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium declined in July, and the export window is narrowing. The US copper tariff policy will change the global copper trade pattern [57]. 3.4 Overseas Inventories Flow to North America, and China Enters a Low - Inventory Range - In July, domestic copper inventories fluctuated at a low level, with SHFE inventories decreasing and Shanghai bonded area inventories increasing. Global visible inventories rebounded due to the approaching US copper tariff window [61]. - As of July 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased slightly. It is expected that global inventories will gradually enter a recovery cycle in August [62][63]. 3.5 Grid Investment Demand Enters the Off - Season, and the Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Emerging Industries (Except for Photovoltaics) Declines - In the first half of 2025, China's grid and power source project investments increased. The total grid investment of the State Grid and South Grid is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, and the development of flexible DC technology will bring value to new grid lines [70][71]. - The photovoltaic industry has new regulations, and the growth of the wind power industry slows down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the demand for copper in these industries is affected [72][75]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China maintain strong growth, and the domestic and export markets are both active. The demand for copper in new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a rate of over 25% [79][80]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US reciprocal tariffs and the Fed's policy affect the copper market, while China's "anti - involution + stable growth" policy is positive for the market. Fundamentally, supply is becoming looser, and consumption is mixed [85]. - Overall, the support for copper prices from the fundamentals weakens. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [86].

Core Insights - Cangge Mining has completed key approval processes for the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion project, which is expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [1] Project Development - The project has received necessary permits including project establishment approval, environmental impact assessment approval, land use approvals, and payment of cultivated land occupation tax [1] - Upon completion, the second phase is projected to produce an annual copper output of approximately 300,000 to 350,000 tons [1] - The new production capacity is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's performance [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The U.S. does not impose tariffs on electrolytic copper, ending cross - market arbitrage. The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper tends to rise, so the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly short the main contract on rallies, and pay attention to certain support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,040, a decrease of 890 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 109,011 hands, a decrease of 119,877 hands compared to the previous day; the open interest was 176,193 hands, an increase of 4,504 hands compared to the previous day; the inventory was 19,622 tons, a decrease of 351 tons compared to the previous day; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,565, a decrease of 720 compared to the previous day [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 525, an increase of 170 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes, such as - 20 in Guangzhou, - 110 in North China, and 32 in East China [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 31, 2025 was 9,607, a decrease of 123 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 138,200 compared to the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on July 31, 2025 was 4.4305, a decrease of 1.24 compared to the previous day; the total inventory was 257,915, an increase of 4,484 compared to the previous day [2]. News and Events - On July 30, local time, the U.S. White House announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 20% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and steel - intensive derivative products, while copper input raw materials and copper scrap are not subject to "Section 232" or equivalent tariffs [2]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in the U.S. to rise in June. The U.S. economy and employment performance are robust, and the inflation pushed up by tariffs may take a long time to show, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and December [2][3]. Production Changes - Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile in 2025 in the second quarter; Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to an accident; Anglo Asian Mining's Deniri copper mine started trial production; Russia's Nornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast; several mines in China and other regions had production - affecting incidents [3]. - Some mines have expansion or new - production plans, such as the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador under Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2025 [3].

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with LME copper price reaching $9,878 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, while Shanghai copper futures rose by 8.27% to 79,870 CNY per ton [1] - The U.S. tariff policies under President Trump have caused considerable market disruptions, leading to concerns about a global economic recession, which impacted stock and futures markets [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with developed economies' growth expectations lowered from 1.9% to 1.4% [3] Supply Analysis - Global copper mine production from January to April 2025 totaled 7.5254 million metric tons, an increase of 2.64% year-on-year, but major copper producers reported a decline in output [8][9] - The anticipated global copper mine increment for 2025 is between 220,000 to 300,000 tons, with significant contributions expected from projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Kamoa-Kakula [11] - Domestic copper concentrate production in China for January to March 2025 reached 427,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%, but still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [12] Demand Analysis - In the U.S., new housing starts have declined, while automotive sales remain stable, contributing limited growth to copper consumption [17] - In China, investment in power grid projects increased by 14.59% year-on-year, and the production of new energy vehicles surged by 48.35% [17] - Overall, domestic copper consumption is expected to show resilience, with strong growth in the power grid sector and stable performance in the automotive sector [17] Trade Flow Changes - The U.S. initiated a "232 investigation" into copper imports, leading to significant changes in global copper trade flows, with COMEX and LME markets experiencing increased arbitrage trading [18][19] - Chile's refined copper exports decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, while exports to the U.S. saw a significant increase of 116.11% [19] - As of June 30, 2025, global copper inventories decreased by 20.59% year-on-year, indicating tightening supply conditions [19] Outlook for the Second Half - The copper market is expected to maintain high prices due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, supply constraints, and resilient demand [20] - If no major risk events occur, copper prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching new highs, although there is a risk of temporary price corrections following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [21]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜主力震荡微跌 0.06%，盘中中央政治局会议召开，未有明显政策利好，铜价 窄幅变动，盘面近月维持小幅 contango，国内现货涨 260 至 79285，现货升水涨 55 至 165，现货货源紧张。LME0-3 维持 contango51.71，LME 市场继续受到美铜 关税压制，不过沪铜和伦铜日内整体跌幅有限，市场观望情绪较浓。当下宏 ...