氧化铝及铝半年报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 冲击与支撑 核心观点及策略 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 22 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，上半年几内亚矿端虽有小扰动，但全年 铝土矿供应预计能满足需求。供应端氧化铝上半年已 投产720万吨新产能，还有460万吨产能待投放，新产 能都集中在沿海使用进口矿，无论从矿石供应及成本 角度看，都比较支持下半年这些新产能投放，供应增 加预期较强。需求端电解铝企业产能刚性，需求稳 定。在供 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 新能源&有色组铝产业半年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝半年度报告 2025-07-06 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 研究院 新能源&有色组 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged unexpectedly, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and improving demand sentiment, alongside a declining US dollar index which benefits global commodities, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The price difference between Comex copper and LME has widened to $1,400, indicating market speculation around the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs [1] - Global copper inventory levels are low, with LME copper stocks decreasing from 270,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 90,000 tons currently, leading to a significant increase in LME copper's backwardation to $320, indicating tightness in the spot market [1] Group 2 - In the copper sector, companies had previously priced in copper prices of $9,000 to $9,500, and the recent price surge is expected to lead to earnings upgrades for these companies [2] - Recommended copper stocks with alpha attributes include Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, which are expected to benefit from improved performance and high profit elasticity [2] - In the aluminum sector, while some stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu have shown strong performance, concerns about demand from the photovoltaic sector have led to weaker performance in other aluminum stocks, despite strong underlying demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 "反内卷"拉动氧化铝价格 铝期货方面：2025-07-02日沪铝主力合约开于20610元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨75元/ 吨，涨幅0.36%，最高价达20725元/吨，最低价达到20600元/吨。全天交易日成交146289手，较上一交易日增 加11655手，全天交易日持仓283729手，较上一交易日增加630手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-02，LME铝库存356625 吨，较前一交易日增加8000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-02 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-02氧化铝主力合约开于2948元/吨，收于3071元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130 元/吨，涨幅4.42%，最高价达到3075元/吨，最低价为2931元/吨。全天交易日成交386359手，较上一交易日增 加93491手，全天交易日持仓275495手，较上 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/7/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 20,635.00 70.00 283,729.00 | 0.00 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -20.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +630.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 3,071.00 64.00 275,495.00 | +126.00↑ -17.00↓ -4814.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 10,625.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 65,645.0 ...

Q&A 铜铝板块的商品和权益目前的表现如何？ 价值之路，资源重估 - 铜铝金观点汇报 20260629 摘要 降息预期增强及险资流入驱动铜铝板块价值重估，提升边际定价权。涨 价带来的 EPS 提升及较低的 PE/PB 估值降低了短期回撤风险，增强了投 资者信心。 铜矿供给端持续紧张，预计 2025 年增长量大幅减少，叠加美国 232 调 查导致全球库存向美国转移，加剧非美经济体供给压力，冶炼厂加工费 下降验证了矿端供给紧张局面。 美国财政和货币政策双重边际宽松，降低了海外投资者对美国衰退的预 期，前期抄底策略受益于此，进一步推动铜铝板块上涨。 铜板块估值处于历史低位，以紫金矿业为例，目前估值已从低点修复， 但仍低于去年平均水平，反映了市场对需求端和宏观预期的担忧，存在 增配机会。 铝板块具备高分红、高股息属性，龙头公司如虹桥估值中枢逐步抬高， 板块整体 PB 和 PE 较低，分红率和股息率较高，长期价格成长性强，建 议关注投资机会。 铜铝板块的商品目前处于区间震荡状态，整体易涨难跌。近期降息预期增强， 可能导致商品从短期反弹过渡到反转状态。对于权益而言，价值和周期资金实 现共振，使得性价比更高。长钱和降息两个 ...

铝类市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 宏观预期VS淡季影响，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.56%，报20580元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+3.32%，报2986元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存有所回落，整体仍较充足；几内亚供给扰动事件有所缓和，但受雨季影 响雨季发运量或有所收减，铝土矿报价暂稳运行。供给方面，氧化铝国内供给量仍显宽松，进口大幅增加，国内在产 产能亦维持高位运行。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能持稳运行，由于氧化铝原料供应偏宽松，冶炼厂库存预计相对 充足，生产情况稳定，对氧化铝需求亦保持相对稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于，供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段， 铝土矿价格稳定为氧化铝提供部分成本支撑。 电解铝：基本面供给端，国内电 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 铝期货方面：2025-06-26日沪铝主力合约开于20340元/吨，收于20445元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨150元/ 吨，涨幅0.74%，最高价达20455元/吨，最低价达到20325元/吨。全天交易日成交152410手，较上一交易日增 加35033手，全天交易日持仓260549手，较上一交易日增加6534手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.3万吨。截止2025-06-26，LME铝库存336900 吨，较前一交易日减少1000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-26 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3095元/吨，山东价格录得3095元/吨，广西价格录得 3190元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-06-26氧化铝主力合约开于2915元/吨，收于2948元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨42元/ 吨，涨幅1.45%，最高价达到2952元/吨，最低价为2915元/吨。全天交易日成交325494手，较上一交易日增加 92693手，全天交易日持仓290722手，较上一交易日增加6178手。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-06-27 美元创出年内新低，有色创出4月初以来新 高 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 有⾊观点：美元创出年内新低，有色创出4月初以来新高 交易逻辑：近期公布的中美经济数据略偏弱；伴随着伊朗和以色列局 势缓和、特朗普再度喊话美联储降息且将提前提名新美联储主席， 美元指数创出年内新低，整体来看，宏观面数据偏弱，但美元持续走 低提振市场风险偏好。供需面来看，基本金属供需略偏紧，本周国内 库存整体小幅去库，LME金属库存整体偏低。中短期来看，弱美 元、LME低库存和需求走弱预期交织，有色震荡走高，主 ...