Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly due to supply constraints from Indonesia, global macroeconomic easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, despite high visible inventories and seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the largest variable affecting the market, with rumors of a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, potentially leading to a substantial supply gap [3]. - Adjustments in pricing mechanisms and tax policies in Indonesia may systematically increase global nickel mining and smelting costs [3]. - Geopolitical tensions in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are raising concerns about the stability of the nickel-cobalt supply chain, adding extra risk premiums to prices [3]. - Despite high visible inventories, which are at multi-year highs, the supply is showing differentiation, with expectations of a rebound in refined nickel production in the medium to long term [3]. Demand Side - Demand remains weak in downstream sectors such as stainless steel and new energy batteries, which are currently in a traditional production lull, leading to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials [3]. - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation, indicating a disconnect between price increases and actual consumption [3]. - The industrial chain is characterized by a "hot upper and cold lower" pattern, where upstream miners are reluctant to sell, while midstream smelters are encouraged to increase production due to rising prices, but downstream consumption remains flat [3]. Market Outlook - Nickel price trends will heavily depend on the specifics and implementation of Indonesian policies, with market sentiment likely to dominate prices in the short term [4]. - High volatility is expected to become the norm, and investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid chasing prices [4]. - Key data to monitor includes official documents from Indonesia, global inventory depletion rates, and downstream enterprise operating rates for clearer signals in the fundamentals [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - **Nickel spot premiums and discounts**: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Nickel - iron**: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - **Demand**: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - **Cost**: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - **Demand**: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - **Cost and price**: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Indonesia's RKAB quota and the anticipated taxation policy on cobalt have led to a rapid rebound in nickel prices, with the main contract reaching a peak of 130,880 yuan/ton, indicating a significant V-shaped reversal in technical patterns [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota Reduction - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the RKAB quota for 2026 at 250 million tons, a substantial decrease of 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, aimed at preventing further declines in nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association Secretary General stated that this move reflects a clear intention to support nickel prices [1] - Data indicates that the demand for nickel ore in Indonesia for 2026 is estimated to be at least 327 million wet tons, leading to a projected supply gap of 57 million tons if the 250 million tons quota is implemented [1] Group 2: Quota Approval History - Historical patterns show that Indonesia's government has frequently revised RKAB quota approvals, with actual issuance often exceeding initial plans, as seen in 2025 where the approved quota reached 364 million tons despite an initial plan of 298 million tons [2] - There is a cautious outlook regarding the actual implementation of the current quota reduction, with expectations that the final quota may range between 280 million to 320 million tons [2] - Short-term supply shortage expectations are likely to continue influencing market dynamics and intensifying capital speculation [2] Group 3: Cobalt Taxation Policy - Indonesia plans to officially release a revised nickel reference price calculation formula in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The potential taxation on cobalt could generate approximately $600 million annually for the Indonesian government, even with a minimal cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt taxation is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3] Group 4: Market Implications - Despite the increase in costs due to cobalt taxation, the actual net cost increase for integrated companies is expected to be limited, as they can offset costs through cobalt recovery [4] - The likelihood of the cobalt taxation policy being implemented is considered higher than that of the RKAB quota reduction, as historical execution of price policies has been more decisive [4] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP production capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of over 85%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [4] - The recent strong rebound in nickel prices is driven by market sentiment, but further significant price increases may be limited without additional policy developments [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom space of nickel price is expected to shift from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy in 2026, with the front - end smelting entering a second peak of low - cost replacement of high - cost. The combined low - cost and surplus volume is over 360,000 tons, while the nickel - iron to nickel - matte production in 2025 was about 270,000 tons [3][68]. - The price difference between nickel - iron and nickel sulfate/refined nickel is expected to converge in the long - term, with the industry chain forming a parallel pattern of hydrometallurgy - nickel sulfate/refined nickel and nickel - iron - stainless steel. If the Indonesian nickel ore quota is implemented, nickel - iron will rise more than pure nickel; otherwise, pure nickel will decline [4][69]. - The path of price difference regression may be bumpy. In 2026, domestic enterprises may consider selling MHP and squeezing MHP profits [4][69]. - The upper limit of nickel price depends on the uncertainty of Indonesian policies. The long - term nickel price is still promising, especially in 2027 due to the demand from solid - state batteries and other emerging sectors [4][69]. - From a static balance perspective, a surplus of about 220,000 - 230,000 tons is expected in 2026, mainly due to the over - supply in the smelting end [5][70]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply: Shift to Hydrometallurgy in the Production Cycle - In 2025, intermediate products and nickel sulfate were in short supply, while refined nickel had significant inventory accumulation. The industry mode and resource integration led to more flexible conversion between standard and non - standard products [10][12]. - In 2026, Indonesia's hydrometallurgical MHP will be the largest source of supply. The planned production capacity from 2026 - 2027 is close to 550,000 tons, with an expected increase of 350,000 tons in production capacity by the end of 2026. The actual increase in supply is mainly from three projects, with an expected year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons to 620,000 tons in 2026 [13]. - The total capacity of the key oxygen - rich side - blowing incremental projects from 2026 - 2027 is about 80,000 tons. The output of Indonesian oxygen - rich side - blown nickel matte is expected to increase by 30,000 tons to 70,000 tons in 2026 [15]. - The trend of RKEF converting to nickel matte is decreasing. The traditional pyrometallurgy is facing challenges, with the bottom space of nickel price shifting from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy [21]. - The global nickel - iron supply is expected to increase by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons in 2026. However, due to the squeeze of hydrometallurgy on pyrometallurgy, the supply elasticity of nickel - iron will increase [25]. Risk: Uncertainty of Indonesian Policies - Indonesia has the ability and motivation to support prices. It can resolve the surplus contradiction by cutting 9% of nickel supply. Currently, it is taking a moderate approach to support prices, with the full cost of pyrometallurgical nickel - iron rising by 5% year - on - year [30]. - The cost of MHP has increased, but the high cobalt price offsets part of it. In the long - term, Indonesia may cut the quota to control the surplus, but an immediate "one - size - fits - all" policy is still challenging [34]. Demand: Contradiction May Not Be Prominent, Focus on Ternary in the Long - Term - In 2026, the growth rate of global electric vehicle demand will be moderate, with the increase in market penetration as the core logic. The total global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by 13% to 23.75 million units [37]. - The growth of the Chinese electric vehicle market may slow down, but the structural market has bright spots, with an expected increase of about 1.5 million units in domestic demand [39]. - The overseas market growth mainly comes from Europe and emerging regions, while the US market may have a negative impact [42]. - The growth rate of global ternary battery installation is not expected to be high in 2026. The proportion of ternary battery installation may decline by 6% to 36%. The long - term demand depends on emerging sectors such as solid - state batteries [43]. - The alloy demand growth is expected to be limited, with marginal attention on high - temperature and corrosion - resistant alloys. The demand for stainless steel is less elastic and may not have outstanding performance [50][63].

Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing a rebound influenced by Indonesian policies and a collective rise in non-ferrous and precious metals, with the Shanghai nickel contract showing a V-shaped reversal and high volatility [2][11] - The market is currently in a phase of supply-demand dynamics, with a cautious sentiment prevailing among traders [2][11] Market Analysis - Price Movement: The Shanghai nickel contract rose from 121,700 CNY/ton to a peak of 130,900 CNY/ton, followed by a pullback to 126,800 CNY/ton, resulting in an approximate weekly increase of 8.2%, marking an 8-month high [2][11] - Spot Market: The average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,870 CNY/ton, up 9,600 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the average premium for Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 CNY/ton to 7,000 CNY/ton [2][11] - Macro Environment: The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion CNY MLF operation, enhancing liquidity expectations, while the offshore RMB strengthened against the USD, providing support for the domestic commodity market [2][11] Supply and Demand - Supply: Indonesia's APNI announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a decrease of 34%, leading to an expected supply gap of 30-40 million tons [3][12] - Demand: Stainless steel production remains high in December, and the recovery in new energy vehicle production contributes to stable demand for ternary batteries [3][12] Cost and Profit - Production Costs: Integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel has a cost of 111,026 CNY/ton with a profit margin of 9.00%, while other production methods show negative profit margins [4][12] - Inventory Levels: Shanghai nickel inventory decreased from 45,280 tons to 44,454 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased slightly from 253,998 tons to 255,696 tons [4][12] Strategy - The rebound in nickel prices is driven by Indonesian policy changes and the rise in non-ferrous metals, but high inventory levels and a weak end-user demand suggest limited upward momentum [5][13] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended within the 123,000-130,000 CNY range for high sell-low buy opportunities [5][13] Stainless Steel Market - Price Movement: The main stainless steel contract showed a passive rise, reaching a peak of 13,105 CNY/ton before closing at 12,955 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.85% [6][14] - Supply and Demand: December's stainless steel crude steel production is expected to decline, particularly in the 200 and 400 series, while downstream demand remains weak [7][15] - Inventory: The total stainless steel inventory in major markets decreased by 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a trend of destocking [7][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is in a volatile state. Recently, affected by the strengthened expectation of fundamental surplus, the Shanghai nickel futures market has dropped rapidly, hitting a new low of 111,700 yuan/ton this year. The spot price has also faced increased pressure to decline. Short - term production cuts of refined nickel have not changed the surplus situation, and with the decline in nickel sulfate price and insufficient motivation for nickel plate enterprises to switch production, the production of pure nickel in December is expected to increase month - on - month. In the long - term, the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" will gradually accumulate, and the center of nickel price will further decline. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - The price of nickel has shown a volatile downward trend, while the stainless steel market has seen marginal improvement in fundamentals but still faces challenges such as high inventory. [3][4][82] Industry News - Russia's Nornickel has doubled its forecast for nickel supply surplus this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026, expecting a surplus of 240,000 tons this year and 275,000 tons in 2026. [7] - Greenmei stated that its Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel resource project is in normal production, and the production plan for December is normal, unaffected by local social unrest. [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has simplified the regulatory rules for RKAB, reducing the number of projects from 30 to 10 to speed up project planning, exploration, and approval processes. [7] - In November, some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks may be affected by safety inspections, with an estimated impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons. [7] - In September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, consumption was 308,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 17,100 tons. From January to September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2,876,900 tons, consumption was 2,602,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 274,500 tons. [7] Market Price - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 117,900 yuan/ton and closed at 115,590 yuan/ton last week, down 1.87% week - on - week. [9] - As of December 12, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 118,200 yuan/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 120,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%, and its premium increased by 300 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,050 yuan/ton to 116,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%, and its premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton. [15] - As of December 12, the LME nickel price decreased by 350 US dollars/ton to 14,620 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 2.34%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 4.53 US dollars/ton to - 186.45 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 70.57 yuan/ton to - 926.73 yuan/ton, and the export profit and loss decreased by 52.06 US dollars/ton to - 673.37 US dollars/ton. [20] - As of December 12, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 7.5 yuan/nickel point to 889 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, an increase of 0.85%. The premium of high - nickel pig iron over electrolytic nickel increased by 28 yuan/nickel point to - 271 yuan/nickel point. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 27,490 yuan/ton, and the average price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton. The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel plate increased by 1,868.19 yuan/ton to 8,954.55 yuan/ton. [28] Supply - **Nickel Ore**: As of December 12, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week. The domestic arrival prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore remained unchanged at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 120,000 wet tons to 9.29 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.28%. In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 23.41% month - on - month and an increase of 10.97% year - on - year. [33][36] - **Intermediate Products**: As of December 12, the MHP FOB price decreased by 72 US dollars/ton to 13,001 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%, and the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 73 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP production decreased by 24,000 tons to 386,000 nickel tons, a decrease of 5.85%, and the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 70,000 tons to 292,000 tons, an increase of 31.53%. In October 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 151,300 metal tons, a decrease of 20.62% month - on - month and an increase of 26.52% year - on - year; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 28,300 metal tons, a decrease of 50.06% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.33% year - on - year. [42] - **Refined Nickel**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.13% month - on - month and 16.28% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 3.15% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a decrease of 65.66% month - on - month and 5.67% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative export volume was 150,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 55.2%; the cumulative import volume was 197,400 tons, a cumulative increase of 168.23%. As of December 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 486 tons to 35,300 tons, an increase of 1.40%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 84 tons to 253,000 tons, a decrease of 0.03%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 2,122 tons to 59,000 tons, an increase of 3.73%. [50][51] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons, an increase of 1.21%. In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 25.32% month - on - month and an increase of 114.15% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, an increase of 31.23% month - on - month and a decrease of 53.20% year - on - year. [64] - **Nickel Iron**: In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons, a decrease of 3.23%. The Indonesian nickel pig iron production decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons. As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons of metal content), a decrease of 18.40% month - on - month and an increase of 30.31% year - on - year. [75] - **Stainless Steel**: In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 20,700 tons to 3.4931 million tons, a decrease of 0.59% month - on - month and an increase of 5.26% year - on - year. The estimated crude steel production in December is 3.2258 million tons, a decrease of 7.65% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's stainless steel monthly import volume was 124,100 tons, an increase of 3.18% month - on - month and a decrease of 21.56% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 358,100 tons, a decrease of 14.43% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year. [87] Demand - The demand for nickel in traditional fields is weak, unable to boost the price. The demand for nickel sulfate has slowed down after the peak season, and the procurement volume of ternary enterprises for nickel salts has declined. The demand for stainless steel is affected by factors such as high inventory and tight corporate funds at the end of the year, which restricts the upward movement of the market. [3][4] Cost - In November 2025, the SMM average production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 170 US dollars/ton to 13,208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 216 yuan/ton and decreased by 4,667 yuan/ton respectively to 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton; the profit margins decreased by 0.5 and increased by 3.3 percentage points respectively to 9.0% and - 3.0%. [57] - In the cost of nickel sulfate production, as of December 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate increased by 1.7, 1.5, 1.8, and 1.1 percentage points respectively to 0.9%, - 0.5%, 6.1%, and - 3.1%. [68] - In the cost of nickel pig iron production, as of December 12, the cash cost of RKEF production in Fujian decreased by 14.03 yuan/nickel point to 951.13 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 2.15 percentage points to - 6.44%. [81] - In the cost of stainless steel production, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 22 yuan/ton to 12,490 yuan/ton week - on - week, an increase of 0.18%. [94] Inventory - The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased to 59,000 tons as of December 12. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55%, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,816 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2.95%. [51][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

根据印尼镍冶炼协会(FINI)主席Arif Perdanakusumah的说明，当前印尼镍行业正面临日益加大的压力， 因印尼镍矿供应已难以跟上冶炼产能的迅速扩张，多家冶炼厂甚至警告可能被迫停产。 力勤资源(02245)：镍矿贸易起家，成功转型为全球镍冶炼龙头。1)公司印尼镍冶炼项目由合作伙伴提供 镍矿原料，双方签署20年协议保障镍矿供给，镍矿定价为印尼政府规定的最低采购价，同时主要镍矿与 镍冶炼产能均位于Obi岛，运输距离短，公司镍矿原料成本优势显著；2)共同持股：印尼镍冶炼项目均 由公司与合作伙伴共同持股，双方各自发挥优势，利益高度一致，进一步保障稳定低价的镍矿原料长期 供应。 据知情人士透露，印尼核心镍产区一座中资控股的大型冶炼厂正因其尾矿库即将满容而削减产量，这一 事件凸显出镍行业日益严峻的废料管理难题。 他指出，随着全国数百座冶炼厂持续增加，对采矿配额的需求正急剧上升；然而政府却将RKAB采矿配 额的有效期从三年缩短至一年，进一步收紧了国内供应。在政策收紧与工业需求加速增长的双重影响 下，矿山产量与冶炼需求之间的缺口正不断扩大。 Arif呼吁政府优先审批与冶炼厂关联的矿山RKAB，同时加强勘探力度以及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week. Although there is a continued positive macro - expectation, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the US dollar index is expected to decline, which provides macro - level support. However, there is a stockpiling pressure on nickel both at home and abroad, and domestic supply remains high. Traditional consumption has no significant driving force, and whether the strong demand from the power end can materialize remains to be seen [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,180 yuan/ton to 121,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan/ton; LME nickel price decreased from 15,280 dollars/ton to 15,126 dollars/ton, a decline of 154 dollars/ton. - LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 961 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point, a drop of 14 yuan/nickel point. - Stainless steel inventory decreased from 878,000 tons to 865,000 tons, a reduction of 13,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Macro - level - The US government shutdown led to a halt in the release of inflation, retail, and employment data. The Fed's economic beige book showed that the US consumer market has weakened, with high tariffs driving up prices and economic downward pressure still existing. The labor market remains sluggish but has stopped declining. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast. Fed governors Milan and Waller signaled a dovish stance, but there is a difference in the expected interest - rate cut range in October, with Milan advocating a 50 - basis - point cut and Waller supporting a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at 49 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia remained at 38.55 dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.4% grade nickel ore in the Philippines from a tender was 43.5 dollars/wet ton. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to remain loose, and the domestic trade premium is stable. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required 400 mining enterprises to submit their 2026 production plans by October 17 [6]. 3.2.3 Pure Nickel - In September, the national refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The monthly production capacity was about 54,198 tons, a slight increase of 499 tons from the previous period, and the operating rate was 66%, with no significant change. The profit margins of integrated electrowinning nickel in various processes have been significantly restored. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 161.29% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6,000 tons. The import increment mainly came from Norway, while imports from Russia decreased significantly. In August, the domestic refined nickel export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of October 16, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1,325 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased significantly [7]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951 yuan/nickel point to 938 yuan/nickel point, a weekly decline of about 1.37%. In September, China's nickel pig iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. Indonesia's nickel pig iron production was 139,900 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 0.14% and 0.01% respectively. As of September 30, the physical ton inventory of nickel iron was 254,300 tons, a slight increase of about 5,800 tons from the previous period. After the holiday, stainless - steel consumption was sluggish, and steel mills' raw material stocking willingness was poor, putting pressure on nickel - iron prices. The cost of nickel - iron plants was under pressure due to the firm price of nickel ore [8]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons and a month - on - month flat. Indonesia's stainless - steel production in September was about 430,000 tons, a slight increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series stainless - steel production in September had no significant change, and the actual nickel consumption was limited. It is expected that the 300 - series stainless - steel production in October will decrease by 70,000 tons to 1.79 million tons. As of October 16, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 562,200 tons, a stockpiling of about 31,300 tons from the previous period. The terminal real - estate transaction was still sluggish, and the large - scale stockpiling of 300 - series stainless steel suppressed its production scale [9]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,400 yuan/ton to 28,550 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly to 30,750 yuan/ton. In September, the production of nickel sulfate was 33,971 tons (metal content), a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4.75% and 11.45% respectively. The production of ternary materials in September was about 75,360 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 31.5% and 2.6% respectively. The profit margin of the process of producing nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte was 6.1% and showed an upward trend. The supply of MHP was tight, and there was a structural differentiation in the upstream supply, but the total supply increased. The terminal consumption was strong, but the mid - stream material factories had not digested their existing inventories, and there was a strong restocking expectation in the future [10]. 3.2.7 New Energy - From October 1 - 12, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market was 367,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period in October last year and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicle retail was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027. The new standard will take effect on January 1, 2026, which is expected to promote technological innovation in the automotive industry and the lightweight development of new - energy vehicles. Some regions have adjusted the new - energy vehicle replacement subsidy rules to a "qualification - based" system [10][11]. 3.2.8 Inventory - The current six - region social inventory of pure nickel was 47,708 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 27,042 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,814 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,152 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 277,572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,966 tons [12]. 3.3 Industry News - On October 10, 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required nickel enterprises to submit their 2026 nickel - mine production plans by October 15. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated that its nickel - ore smelting capacity in Indonesia is nearly 200,000 metal tons. The company has also made strategic investments in lithium and phosphorus resources [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including domestic and foreign nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][23].

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) saw its stock price increase by over 25%, currently trading at 1.78 HKD with a transaction volume of 55.9 million HKD [1] - The company reported a mid-year revenue of approximately 1.118 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 71.6 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year decline of about 50.2% [1] Group 2 - During the reporting period, the company produced 6,030 tons of electrolytic nickel, which is an increase of approximately 26.7% year-on-year [1] - Sales of electrolytic nickel reached 5,672 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 29.6% [1] - The production of cathode copper was 3,815 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 7.0%, while sales of cathode copper increased by 51.6% to 4,559 tons [1] Group 3 - On August 30, the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia reported large-scale protests in cities like Jakarta [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicated that the Indonesian government might shorten the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year, urging companies to resubmit their 2026 RKAB budgets by October 2025 [1] - Potential delays in approvals or nickel ore replenishment actions could limit the downward price pressure on nickel in the second half of the year, providing high price support from the mining sector [1]