Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is mainly affected by cost increases, but there are many uncertainties in the market. The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate. The rapeseed meal market has significant price fluctuations, and the supply shortage still provides some support for the price. In the medium - term, the rapeseed meal market will have relatively obvious positive factors. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are to buy low for single - side trading, expand the MRM05 spread for arbitrage, and buy call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The US soybean futures continued to be strong, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a phased adjustment. The upward trend of rapeseed meal futures slowed down. The month - to - month spread of soybean meal declined significantly, while that of rapeseed meal strengthened but still fluctuated. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal showed a restorative upward trend, and the far - month spread reflected concerns about future supply [4]. - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3161, 2844, and 3113 respectively, with changes of +6, - 3, and +13. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2604, 2505, and 2678 respectively, with changes of +14, +1, and - 10 [4]. - In terms of basis, for soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao, the current basis was - 50, - 190, - 170, and - 140 respectively, with changes of +30, - 10, - 10, and +10. For rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi, the current basis was - 38, - 38, and - 48 respectively, with changes of +40, 0, and 0 [4]. - Regarding the month - to - month spread, for soybean meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 269, - 48, and 317 respectively, with changes of - 16, +7, and +9. For rapeseed meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 173, 74, and 99 respectively, with changes of +11, - 24, and +13 [4]. - The cross - variety spreads: the current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 were 557 and 435 respectively, compared with 565 and 412 yesterday. The oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.697, compared with 2.699 yesterday. The current spot spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean meal - sunflower meal, and rapeseed meal - sunflower meal were 377, 473, and 116 respectively, with changes of - 51, - 7, and +4 [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - In the US, the old - crop soybean balance sheet is clearly positive. Exports are basically completed, and the crush volume is also increased, resulting in a certain decrease in the ending stocks. For new - crop soybeans, although the yield per unit is increased, the supply is tightened due to a large reduction in the planting area. The cumulative exports of new - crop soybeans are still slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio is expected to have limited positive effects. If more positive factors emerge, the US soybean futures may continue to be strong [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybeans are in a situation of relatively loose supply and demand. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The total ending stocks or exports may increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is relatively slow, and there is still price pressure. However, the relatively high price of Brazilian soybeans is due to the optimistic outlook for future exports [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is still obvious. It is expected that the soybean crush volume in major producing areas will increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the imports of major soybean meal importing countries only increase slightly. The soybean - related market still faces pressure, and the price center is expected to decline [5]. - In China, the domestic soybean meal spot market is still loose. The oil refinery operating rate remains high, the supply is sufficient, and the提货量 also increases. The inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume increases, mainly in basis trading. There are increasing concerns about the tight supply in the far - month. As of August 15, the actual soybean crush volume of oil refineries was 2.339 million tons, the operating rate was 65.75%, the soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons (4.24%) from last week and a decrease of 243,500 tons (3.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons (1.12%) from last week and a decrease of 481,800 tons (32.2%) year - on - year [7]. - The demand for rapeseed meal in China has gradually weakened recently. The operating rate of oil refineries has decreased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the supply pressure remains. Although there are uncertainties in the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also weakening. As of the week of August 15, the rapeseed crush volume of major coastal oil refineries was 44,800 tons, and the operating rate this week was 11.94%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomics - The negotiation between China and the US in London has been completed, but the market lacks clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. There are still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market stabilizes, macro - disturbances decrease. Since China still has a high demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short - term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures fluctuate mainly because the cost is significantly increased. The current price of US soybeans does not fully reflect the positive factors, and the situation in the monthly supply - demand report is more affected by the exports of US new - crop soybeans, which is also closely related to the domestic soybean meal supply. Therefore, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [9]. - The rapeseed meal market has significantly enlarged price fluctuations. After a large - scale adjustment in the past few days, the price shows some support after the decline. The market generally pays attention to the import of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - term, the positive factors for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. In the future, the rapeseed meal market may need to limit the demand through a lower price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - The month - to - month spread of soybean meal still faces downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, especially for the far - month spread [9].

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.68% at 2177 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - ProFarmer's crop survey predicts Ohio's corn yield for 2025 at 185.69 bushels per acre, up from 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024. South Dakota's corn yield is expected to be 174.18 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024 [2] - The USDA's export inspection report shows that as of the week ending August 14, 2025, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,050,715 tons, at the lower end of expectations, down 31% from the previous week and down 14% year-on-year [2] - In the third week of August 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 3.1264 million tons of corn, compared to 6.0632 million tons in August last year. The average daily shipment was 284,200 tons, an increase of 3.13% from 275,600 tons per day last August [2] Institutional Views - Zhengxin Futures indicates that strong exports support a rebound in U.S. corn prices, while domestic reserve purchases bolster wheat prices. However, short-term corn supply remains stable, and market bearish sentiment persists, suggesting a weak performance for corn in the short term. In the medium to long term, as the new corn harvest approaches, selling pressure from traders is expected to increase, leading to an overall weak trend for corn [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes a "double weakness" in fundamentals: on one hand, the USDA report continues to exert a bearish effect, maintaining a high good-to-excellent rate of 72% for U.S. corn, which suppresses import costs; on the other hand, the domestic state reserve's corn auction has a low transaction rate of only 18%, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Current prices have broken below the previous range of 2180-2200, suggesting that existing short positions should be held, and new positions should focus on shorting at resistance levels around 2185, while being cautious of potential drops before the new corn season in September [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Report Core Views - The cotton market has limited upward momentum and will likely continue to fluctuate. Although the global supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tighter one, there are doubts about the supply reduction, and the downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [1][2] - The sugar market will mainly follow the trend of raw sugar. In the short - term, it will be range - bound due to domestic spot pressure, but there may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter [4][6] - The pulp market has no obvious improvement in fundamentals and lacks positive drivers. It is expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short term [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,082 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a decrease of 5.117 million mu, and the harvest area was 44.65 million mu, a decrease of 7.928 million mu, with an abandonment rate of 20.7%, up 6.3 percentage points [1] - India's 2023/24 cotton production was expected to be 5.72 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons (+3.4%), and imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 tons (-13.1%). The ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons (+29.8%) [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending inventory made the supply - demand pattern tighter, but the lack of abnormal weather in the US cotton - growing areas and other major producing countries led to doubts about the tight pattern, and ICE cotton fluctuated [2] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton in July, low expected imports in the third quarter, and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas supported cotton prices in the short term. However, weak downstream demand limited the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but potential regulatory policies and the lack of long - term upward drivers limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar to meet domestic demand and stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian bi - weekly report showed a slight decrease in sugarcane crushing and sugar production but a record - high sugar - making ratio, leading to a decline in raw sugar futures. However, concerns about sugarcane quality and downward revisions of Brazilian production estimates limited the decline [5][6] - In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales, high import profits, and large - scale arrival of imported sugar increased spot pressure. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new crushing season may lead to a rally in the fourth quarter [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on changes in Brazilian production estimates [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] - The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with individual price adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, especially for hardwood pulp. With the commissioning of domestic pulp production capacity in the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to decline. However, slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8] - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and a traditional off - season in the domestic market led to weak demand. Low effective terminal demand, low paper mill operating rates, and over - capacity in the paper industry limited demand improvement [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. With no obvious improvement in the pulp market fundamentals, prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [9]

Market Performance - Corn starch futures showed a downward trend this week, with the main contract reported at 2602.00 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.23% [1] Market Information - As of August 18, the Dalian Commodity Exchange had 7450 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The USDA report continues to reflect a loose expectation, exerting bearish pressure on the external market [1] - The harvest of South American corn is nearing completion, maintaining a high yield situation, which continues to exert phase pressure [1] - For the new season, the planting area of U.S. corn is expected to increase year-on-year, establishing a foundation for pressure, with good quality rates continuing to perform well [1] - Overall weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere are stable, contributing to relative pressure, and the external market may continue to seek a bottom in the short term [1] Inventory Data - As of August 13, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises nationwide was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.33% [1]

1. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar will remain volatile with reduced downward momentum. The decline in Brazilian sugarcane yield per unit and concerns about the high sugar - making ratio have raised the risk of a downward revision in Brazilian sugar production, leading to a rebound in raw sugar after a period of low - level consolidation. Although India and Thailand are expected to have bumper harvests, there may be differences from expectations. In the short term, it is difficult for raw sugar to experience a significant decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17 cents per pound. In July, sugar imports are expected to be significantly higher than the same period last year. However, as the futures price stops falling and rebounds, the inventory reduction progress in Guangxi has further improved, which generally supports the price. Currently, the domestic news is relatively calm [1]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 1.40% to 16.24 cents per pound. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 2.34% to 322,832, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan/ton. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 0.20% to 4561 yuan/ton, and (out - of - quota) increased by 0.17% to 5796 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 955.00 million tons. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 35.55 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 3.36% to 85.60%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 3.04% to 85.01%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% to 96.89 million tons, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23% to 181.97 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 160.00% to 13.00 million tons [1]. 2. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View After the cotton price stabilized at the beginning of August, the downstream of the cotton industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has slightly decreased, and the spinning mills' operating rate has remained stable. The market is concerned about whether the downstream will continue to improve marginally during the traditional peak season, which provides support for the cotton price at low levels. Meanwhile, before the new cotton is launched, the spot basis remains firm, and there is a shortage of low - basis spot cotton in Xinjiang warehouses, which also strongly supports the cotton price. However, as the new cotton is about to be launched, the expected increase in the new - season cotton production still exerts some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is launched [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.53% to 67.84 cents per pound. The 9 - 1 spread of cotton decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1.77% to 486,067, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 0.07% to 15,082 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B increased by 0.12% to 15,234 yuan/ton. The FC Index M 1% decreased by 0.13% to 13,541 yuan/ton. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1252 yuan/ton, and 3128B - 05 contract increased by 0.53% to 957 yuan/ton. The difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% increased by 2.11% to 1693 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 218.98 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 89.84 million tons. Imports increased by 66.7% to 5.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.0% to 30.10 million tons. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased by 57.9% to 0.80. The inventory days of yarn decreased by 2.4% to 27.67 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased by 3.0% to 36.14 days. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons. The immediate processing profit of spinning mills C32s decreased by 1.0% to - 2037.40 yuan/ton. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 24.7% to 961.00 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 5.3% to 1.80%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.7% to 116.04 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate increased by 131.7% to 0.52%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 0.7% to 151.62 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 176.8% to - 0.61 [2]. 3. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report expects the egg price to maintain a bearish trend. The inventory of laying hens is still large, and the egg production is generally sufficient. There is an abundance of small - and medium - sized eggs in most production areas, and the supply of large - sized eggs has increased in some areas. Cold - stored eggs are planned to enter the market soon, which may further increase the supply pressure. The current downstream digestion speed is average [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 2.70% to 3098 yuan/500KG, and the egg 10 contract decreased by 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing areas increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of laying - hen chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/feather, the price of culled hens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/feather [5]. 4. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, the reluctance of farmers to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities have supported the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the group farms' pig sales in August will continue to recover, and farmers who previously held back large pigs also need to sell them. Therefore, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the future pig price. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. At the same time, as the pig weight is continuously decreasing and the growth rate of production capacity is slowing down, the support at the lower level is increasing. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case where the futures market has offered good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton. The price of cattle pigs 2511 decreased by 0.90% to 13,820 yuan/ton, and pigs 2601 decreased by 0.46% to 14,160 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 9.79% to 71,193, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 [8]. - **Spot Market**: The pig price in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 13,750 yuan/ton, in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 13,900 yuan/ton, in Liaoning decreased by 50 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei decreased by 100 yuan to 13,700 yuan/ton. The prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Anhui remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton, 15,040 yuan/ton, and 13,760 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396. The weekly white - strip pig price remained unchanged at 20.31 yuan/kg. The weekly price of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight increased slightly to 127.82 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the weekly profit from purchasing piglets decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of sows capable of reproduction increased by 0.02% to 4043 million heads [8]. 5. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The USDA monthly supply - and - demand report has supported the US soybean price by adjusting the planting area, yield forecast, and inventory - to - sales ratio. However, the high - quality rate of new - season US soybeans remains high, and China has not yet imported new - season US soybeans, so there is still pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the results of the profarmer inspection this week. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce had a short - term positive impact on the market, but the futures price has since declined, and it is difficult to continue to rise in the short term. In terms of the spot basis, the current inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, so the spot price is still under pressure. In operation, the bottom range of meal products has moved up, and the overall trend is still upward. Long - term long positions can be gradually established at low levels [12]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3070 yuan/ton. The price of the M2601 contract increased by 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87% to - 85 yuan/ton. The spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 160. The import crushing profit of US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, and the import crushing profit of Brazilian October shipments decreased by 19.6% to 74 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.53% to 2650 yuan/ton. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73% to 2590 yuan/ton. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25% to 60 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit of Canadian November shipments remained unchanged at 596 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 [12]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25% to 3950 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.30% to 4044 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - one main contract increased by 2.08% to - 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3700 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.21% to 3800 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 8.70% to - 100 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.25% to 12,632 [12]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.85% to - 55 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 4.85% to 8 yuan/ton. The spot oil - to - meal ratio increased by 0.57% to 2.88, and the main - contract oil - to - meal ratio decreased by 0.78% to 2.70. The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 8.70% to 420 yuan/ton, and the 2509 difference decreased by 4.40% to 565 yuan/ton [12]. 6. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The policy - end import corn auction is held twice a week, with about 40 million tons put up for auction, but the transaction rate is less than 20%, and the trading is relatively light. Affected by the upcoming new - grain harvest, the rebound of the spot price is limited. There are no obvious bright spots on the demand side, and deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly consume their own inventories and purchase corn on a just - in - time basis. On the substitution side, the price of wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - at - support - price policy, and the price difference between corn and wheat is at a similar level, which has squeezed some of the corn demand. In summary, the overall market trading is light, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing, so the futures price will maintain a weak - fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn will decrease, and the production may increase steadily, resulting in obvious supply pressure. The futures price will move towards the new - season cost. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [14]. Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract decreased by 0.59% to 2177 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.43% to 2310 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 2.31% to 133 yuan/ton. The 11 - 3 spread of corn decreased by 18.75% to - 19 yuan/ton. The bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2400 yuan/ton. The north - south trading profit increased by 250.00% to 14 yuan/ton. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1926 yuan/ton, and the import profit remained unchanged at 474 yuan/ton. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 13.21% to 180. The position increased by 3

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meals: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meals showed a strong and volatile trend. The USDA's August supply - demand report led to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop US soybeans due to a significant reduction in the planting area. The final ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased, and the price of US soybeans was supported during the critical growth period, providing strong support for the import cost of domestic soybean meal [3]. - Oils: Night trading of rapeseed and palm oils closed up, while soybean oil closed slightly down. The MPOB August report indicated that the actual inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than market expectations, and the inventory accumulation was less than expected. Affected by the news of large - scale confiscation of illegal palm plantations in Indonesia, it is expected that oils will show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures showed that the closing price of soybean oil was 8516, down 18 (-0.21%); palm oil was 9584, up 124 (1.31%); rapeseed oil was 9826, up 69 (0.71%); soybean meal was 3155, up 18 (0.57%); rapeseed meal was 2688, up 39 (1.47%); and peanuts were 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios among different varieties and contract months changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 28 to 32, and the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil increased from - 66 to - 50 [2]. 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4338 ringgit/ton, unchanged; CBOT soybeans were 1043 cents/bushel, down 2 (-0.22%); CBOT US soybean oil was 53 cents/pound, unchanged; and CBOT US soybean meal was 294 dollars/ton, down 3 (-0.92%) [2]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various varieties changed. For example, the price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.46%, and the price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased by 2.88% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 214, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 540 to - 760 [2]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits of different varieties changed. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil increased from - 250 to - 204, and that of near - month US Gulf soybeans decreased from - 93 to - 185 [2]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts for soybean oil increased from 14,840 to 15,310, while the warehouse receipts for palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **US Soybean**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [3]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [3].

Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - **Soybean One**: It will fluctuate [2][12] - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - **Sugar**: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - **Eggs**: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - **Pigs**: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - **Peanuts**: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - **News**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - **News**: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - **News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - **News**: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - **Spot Market**: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

每经AI快讯，当地时间8月18日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货跌0.19%报1040.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.31%报406.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.47%报 524.50美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...