Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货月报 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 潘兆敏：从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 复审： 赵肖肖：从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 9 安粮期货研究报告 综述：阶段性供需错配 推动玉米"逆季节性上涨" 核心观点： 新季玉米市场整体供应保持宽松态势，但近期出现的"逆季节性上涨"主要源于阶段性、 区域性供需错配与结构性支撑因素的共同作用。具体而言，尽管东北产区面临集中售粮压力， 新粮上市对价格构成下行压力，且下游饲料及深加工需求尚未明显复苏，但阶段性粮源流动 不畅、贸易环节及下游企业库存偏低带来的补库预期，以及农户价格预期支撑下可能逐步增 强的惜售情绪，共同形成了当前价格在传统供应压力期震荡偏强的走势。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand for new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, and strong storage capacity of farmers, along with active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 110.80 tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%, higher than the previous week but 9% behind last year and 1% behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - After the China - US trade policy game, the focus is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and a decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened, and the demand for new - season US soybeans is uncertain [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.36%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2542 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: From October 16, US corn export sales net increased by 282.26 tons, up 113% from the previous week and 64% from the four - week average [3] Market Analysis - Due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, strong storage capacity of farmers, and active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 2, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range trading temporarily [2] - Soybean oil: Lack of drive from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2] - Soybean meal: Lack of new sales, US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2] - Soybean: Stable and slightly stronger spot prices support the futures market [2] - Corn: Run in a volatile manner [2] - Sugar: Run weakly [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the changes in spot basis and the growth rate of warehouse receipts [2] - Eggs: Increased culling volume, positive sentiment for distant contracts [2] - Hogs: Volume reduction has been realized, and the industrial logic will return [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged. The basis in Guangdong was - 82 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36%, and production decreased by 0.19%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 30 decreased by 15.89%. Indonesia exported 1,949 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to October, a 7.83% increase [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.53% and a night - session decrease of 0.34%. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 332 yuan/ton [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: For soybean meal futures, DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.36% and a night - session decrease of 0.13%. The spot price range was 3000 - 3140 yuan/ton. For soybean futures, DCE soybean 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.27% and a night - session increase of 0.56% [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 1, CBOT soybean futures closed down due to lack of sales to China. StoneX lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast to 1.772 billion tons, and as of November 27, Brazil's soybean planting was 89% complete [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures C2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.22% and a night - session increase of 0.31%. The spot price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract 01 was 14 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices and Guangdong Shekou prices remained unchanged. Northeast deep - processing corn prices strengthened, and North China corn prices rose [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 14.74 US cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5510 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5405 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: China should focus on the import policy of syrup and premixed powder and the new sugar price in Guangxi. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season's Indian sugar export quota was 1.5 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [20] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures CF2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.62% and a night - session increase of 0.44%. The spot price in North Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 900 yuan/ton [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the mainstream basis changed little. The cotton yarn market was weak, and downstream procurement was not active. ICE cotton was under pressure due to poor export data [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures 2512 had a closing price decrease of 2.47%, and 2601 had a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price in Liaoning was 3.10 yuan/jin [28] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price in Henan was 11,430 yuan/ton, and the futures price of hogs 2601 was 11,495 yuan/ton. The trading volume of hogs 2601 decreased by 15,052 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,802 lots [30] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [31] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the futures price of PK601 was 8,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The trading volume of PK601 decreased by 38,276 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,602 lots [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin and Liaoning, prices were stable or slightly weak; in Shandong, prices were stable [34] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [35]

行业 豆粕 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 02 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘2601合约涨幅0.27%，收于2243元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企业 | | | | | 收购价2078元/吨，较28日涨21元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2277元/吨，较2 | | | | | 8日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日港口价格涨势延续。昨日锦州港15%水二等新季玉 | | | | | 米收购价2210-2240元/吨左右，较28日涨10元/吨；蛇口港成交价2400元/吨，较28 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、昨日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-2 逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 油脂：昨日震荡分化，关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕：现货挺价盘面震荡，豆粕基差小幅走高 玉米/淀粉：东北持续走强，华北压力初显 生猪：出栏压力依旧，价格低位震荡 天然橡胶：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 合成橡胶：驱动不强，维持跟随震荡 棉花：套保压力制约短期上方高度 白糖：糖价低位震荡 纸浆：期货表现依旧疲弱，但纸浆低位存在支撑 双胶纸：12月提货仍有支撑，双胶纸窄幅震荡 原木：基本面矛盾不大，原木进入低估值区间 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 逻辑：天胶受泰国洪水减弱、产出放量压力依旧、国内港口累库、以及日 胶走势偏弱影响，昨日价格逆工业品走势下跌。天胶近期维持窄幅震荡格 局，上周先是泰南产区洪水消息发酵，但盘面并没有给出相应的反应，反 倒是在累库、NR新增交割替代品以及EUDR确认再度延期等偏利空消息的影 响下震荡下行，但同时又受下游采购积极性，以及本身估值相对偏低的支 撑，幅度也是非常有限。而 ...

（责任编辑：康博） 周一（12月1日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌0.67%，报30.2902点，全天绝大部分时间处于下 跌状态、并交投于30.40点附近，北京时间23:03曾短暂地转涨。CBOT玉米期货跌0.61%，报4.45美元/蒲 式耳。CBOT小麦期货跌0.83%，报5.3525美元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货跌1.23%，报11.2725美元/蒲式 耳，豆粕期货跌1.66%，豆油期货涨0.52%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货跌0.83%，活牛期货跌0.87%，饲牛期货跌 0.86%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg near - month contract has fallen sharply, the cotton has continued to rise, and the palm oil has continued to rise. The soybean meal has oscillated and adjusted, the peanut has adjusted at a high level, the pig has fluctuated weakly, the jujube has run weakly at a low level, the sugar has rebounded after a decline, and the apple has run strongly [1] 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The egg主力 2601 contract has fallen sharply due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, with about 1.352 billion in - production egg - laying hens in November. The futures price has fallen after a high - level rebound. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on rallies, with a resistance level of 3220 for the egg 2601 contract [2] Cotton - The cotton主力 2601 contract has continued to rise supported by strong demand. As of November 27, the national new cotton delivery rate is 98.5% (up 1 percentage point year - on - year), and the sales rate is 33.2% (up 18.9 percentage points year - on - year). The strategy is to go long on dips [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal主力 2601 contract has oscillated and declined slightly. High inventory restricts the rebound space, but rising import costs support the price. The strategy is short - term trading [5] Peanuts - The peanut主力 2601 contract has adjusted at a high level for technical correction. High - quality peanuts in the Northeast and low farmer selling sentiment support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [8] Pigs - The pig主力 2601 contract has fluctuated weakly. High inventory and large planned slaughter in November lead to abundant supply. The strategy is short - term trading [9][11] Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil主力 2601 contract has continued to rise. Floods in Southeast Asia and the seasonal production - reduction season support the price. The strategy is to go long lightly [12] Jujubes - The jujube主力 2601 contract has run weakly at a low level. The supply is abundant with high inventory. The strategy is short - term trading [14] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar主力 2601 contract has rebounded after a decline. Increased supply from new sugar mills is offset by high production costs and expected better consumption. The strategy is short - term long - biased trading [16] Apples - The apple主力 2601 contract has run strongly. Low inventory and expected better demand during holidays support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].