Market Performance - The film and cinema sector is leading the gains, with stocks like Happiness Blue Sea rising over 23%, and other companies such as Hengdian Film and China Film increasing by over 3% [1][2] - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.27% [1][2] Company Updates - CK Hutchison Holdings (长和) opened nearly 1% higher, reaching a multi-year high [3] - CK Hutchison announced that the exclusive negotiation period with a consortium has ended, and discussions are ongoing to invite major strategic investors from mainland China to join the consortium [5] Sector Highlights - The engineering machinery and 6G sectors are also showing active performance [1][2] - The innovation drug concept is experiencing significant gains, with Hengrui Medicine rising over 10% due to a collaboration with GSK worth up to $12 billion [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][106] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic mining disturbances have intensified, leading to a rebound in lithium prices from the bottom [2] - Copper prices have fluctuated due to significant inventory reduction domestically, with a short-term outlook of price support from low inventory levels [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable amid rising inventories, while lithium prices have rebounded significantly due to supply-side disturbances [2] - Cobalt prices have increased as inventory is gradually consumed, with potential price rebounds anticipated due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic conditions are showing mixed signals, with U.S. unemployment claims lower than expected [6] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have seen an increase of 1.22% in London and 1.07% in Shanghai, with significant inventory changes noted [22] - The report indicates a loss in copper smelting margins, which have expanded to -2475 CNY/ton [22] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 2.33% in London and 1.19% in Shanghai, with rising inventories impacting price stability [34] - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased to 4460 CNY/ton [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have risen by 1.55% in London and 0.56% in Shanghai, while zinc prices have increased by 2.26% in London and 2.44% in Shanghai [44] - Mining profits for zinc have improved to 7360 CNY/ton [44] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased by 4.89% in London and 2.67% in Shanghai, with nickel prices also showing upward trends [58] - Domestic nickel iron enterprises have reported profits of 5792 CNY/ton [58] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have risen by 9.38% to 72900 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene prices increasing by 13.92% to 810 USD/ton [74] - The report notes that smelting margins for lithium remain negative, indicating challenges in profitability [74] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.06% to 248000 CNY/ton, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints [86]

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Market Overview - On July 24, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3608 points[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21% to 11,193.06 points[9] - Total trading volume for both markets was 18,742 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[9] Sector Performance - Strong performers included securities, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and energy metals, while precious metals, banks, insurance, and electric power sectors lagged[4] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with energy metals and small metals leading the gains[9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.75 times and 40.41 times, respectively, indicating a mid-range valuation over the past three years[4] - The trading volume is above the median of the past three years, suggesting a healthy market activity level[4] Economic Outlook - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment[4] - Long-term capital inflows are increasing, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow from insurance funds, providing significant support to the market[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high mid-year performance growth and technology growth strategies, while also considering high-dividend banks and public utilities[4] - Short-term market expectations lean towards steady upward fluctuations, with a need to monitor policy, capital flow, and external market changes closely[4]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3605.73 points, marking a 0.65% increase, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.21% and 1.50% respectively, reaching 11193.06 points and 2345.37 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18447 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 199 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The market showed broad-based gains across various sectors, with notable increases in energy metals, small metals, aviation, securities, tourism, multi-financial services, glass fiber, bioproducts, and medical services, while precious metals and banking sectors declined [1] Group 2 - The recent market rally is attributed to the gradual resolution of negative factors affecting capital markets, leading to a significant recovery in market profitability since late June [2] - The market has shown a consistent upward trend, with five consecutive weeks of positive weekly candlesticks, indicating a stable position above the 3600-point mark [2] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors such as brokerage firms, AH shares, innovative pharmaceuticals, computing power, and robotics, with a focus on performance-driven strategies complemented by policy support and industry growth [2]

Market Performance - A-shares indices reached new highs for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3605.73 points, up 0.65%, marking the first time since January 2022 that it closed above 3600 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.21% to 11193.06 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50% to 2345.37 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 184.47 billion, a slight decrease of 19.9 billion from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed a broad-based rally, with sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, energy metals, rare earth permanent magnets, duty-free shops, film and television, securities, and biopharmaceuticals leading the gains [2] - Conversely, sectors like precious metals, banking, and CPO concept stocks lagged behind [2] Fund Flow - Major funds saw net inflows in sectors like non-ferrous metals, securities, and steel, while there were net outflows in communication, banking, and electric grid equipment [4] - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Dongfang Caifu, Baogang Co., and Northern Rare Earth, with inflows of 1.573 billion, 1.557 billion, and 1.489 billion respectively [4] - Stocks that experienced net outflows included China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, and Highstar Mining, with outflows of 1.906 billion, 1.112 billion, and 1.047 billion respectively [4] Individual Stock Highlights - Nearly 4400 stocks rose, with around 80 hitting the daily limit [5] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free shop sectors saw widespread gains, with over 20 stocks including Hainan Development and China Duty Free Group hitting the daily limit [5] - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium mining, led the gains with stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Xizang Mining reaching their limits [5] - The securities sector was active, with Jinlong Co. hitting the limit and Guosen Securities and Bank of China Securities showing significant gains [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector also saw gains, with Zhifei Biological hitting the daily limit [5] - Precious metals and CPO concept stocks faced declines, with Zhongjin Gold dropping over 4% and Taicheng Guang falling over 8% [5] Industry Insights - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a recovery in sentiment due to positive changes in the domestic and international robot supply chains, with domestic manufacturers securing more orders [6] - The coal sector is expected to see price recovery driven by seasonal demand and favorable policies, which may enhance market sentiment [6] - The securities sector is anticipated to benefit from ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the capital market, leading to improved market conditions and investor confidence [6][7] - The overall market sentiment is high, with expectations of continued upward movement despite potential short-term adjustments [7] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has remained above 100 trillion, reflecting ongoing market expansion and confidence in China's capital market [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - With the tax - period impact mostly over, the inter - bank market funds are in an abundant state. The A - share market has strong liquidity and market sentiment, and the stock index is expected to run strongly. It is recommended to adjust and go long as the main strategy [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data of Macro - Finance - DR001 closed at 1.31 with a change of - 4.66bp; DR007 at 1.47 with - 1.61bp; GC001 at 1.36 with 4.00bp; GC007 at 1.47 with - 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.55 with - 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with 0.00bp; 1 - year treasury at 1.35 with 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.53 with 1.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.69 with 1.20bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.44 with - 3.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits due on the same day [3] - This week, there will be 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 226.2 billion yuan, 342.5 billion yuan, 520.1 billion yuan, 450.5 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. Additionally, 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 25, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on July 22 [4] Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Conditions - The CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4119; the SSE 50 rose 0.72% to 2792; the CSI 500 rose 0.85% to 6213; the CSI 1000 rose 0.38% to 6637. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors mostly rose. The engineering machinery, coal, cement building materials, steel, engineering consulting services, engineering construction, energy metals, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while the packaging materials, gaming, and banking sectors led the losses [5] - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. For example, IF trading volume increased by 31.4% to 117,403, and its open interest increased by 6.5% to 267,547 [5] Stock Index Futures Basis Conditions - IF basis for the current - month contract is 0.06%, next - month 0.00%, current - quarter 0.01%, and next - quarter 2.62%; IH basis is - 1.43%, - 1.02%, - 0.56%, - 0.36% respectively; IC basis is 7.39%, 8.36%, 8.31%, 7.93% respectively; IM basis is 10.79%, 11.34%, 11.22%, 10.59% respectively [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of gold has surpassed $3,400 per ounce, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system and a shift in the role of gold from a safe-haven asset to a successor of the monetary system [1] - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, reflecting a growing appetite for gold among central banks [1] - National Securities suggests that the investment strategy should shift towards long-term holdings and diversified hedging, focusing on physical gold, ETFs, and gold stocks, while monitoring central bank policies and geopolitical events [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to accelerated price elasticity [2] - The overall outlook for precious and industrial metals is optimistic, while energy metals require attention to fundamental drivers [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 2.85% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - The report highlights a broad increase in metal prices, driven by various factors including global geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [5] - Key investment opportunities are identified in industrial metals and rare earths [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.85% from July 7 to July 18, 2025, with small metals, new metal materials, and energy metals leading the gains at 13.93%, 7.71%, and 5.01% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals and industrial metals showed minimal changes, with precious metals up by 0.15% and industrial metals down by 0.56% [14] Metal Prices - As of July 18, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, up 0.58% over two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $38.43 per ounce, up 3.74% [3][21] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price rose to 180,000 CNY per ton, up 4.05% [21] - The rare earth price index reported at 192.24, up 5.17% over two weeks [3][47] Important Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced ongoing efforts to implement high-quality development plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on stabilizing growth and promoting transformation [4][63] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals and rare earth investment opportunities due to rising prices and market demand [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5] - Industrial metal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent price changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showing slight declines. A significant infrastructure project in Tibet is anticipated to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5] - Small metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxides and tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are seeing price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zijin Mining [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.5% and silver by 2.84% in the week of July 14-18, 2025. The year-to-date performance shows a consistent rise in gold prices, positively impacting the gold-silver ratio [5][6] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes for industrial metals include copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.9%), and lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-2.4%). The overall market is influenced by a major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY [5][27] 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased by 5.5% week-on-week, while tungsten concentrate prices have also risen, indicating a recovery in demand for manufacturing tools [5][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with lithium hydroxide (industrial grade) priced at 52,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. Cobalt products are also seeing price increases, indicating a growing demand in the energy sector [5][35] 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 1.82%. Specific segments such as precious metals and small metals saw gains of 1.61% and 4.45%, respectively [36] 3. Important Events Review - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project took place on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY, expected to stimulate demand for metals [43]