Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient, but due to profit - related issues, there may be production cuts. The demand from electrolytic aluminum is stable. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. The fundamentals are in a state of relatively stable supply and reduced demand during the off - season [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 20,465 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.33%, closing at 2,890 yuan/ton. Cast Aluminum (SHFE Cast Aluminum) trended strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.08%, closing at 19,640 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: For alumina, supply may decrease slightly, and demand remains stable. For electrolytic aluminum, supply will increase slightly, and demand will decrease during the off - season. For cast aluminum alloy, both supply and demand are weak [7][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For SHFE Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices. For Alumina, conduct light - position range - bound trading. For SHFE Cast Aluminum, conduct light - position short - selling at high prices [8][10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum futures fell 1.89% to 20,465 yuan/ton; LME Aluminum rose 0.24% to 2,525.5 dollars/ton; Alumina futures rose 0.67% to 2,998 yuan/ton; SHFE Cast Aluminum futures rose 1.08% to 19,640 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Open Interest**: As of June 20, 2025, SHFE Aluminum open interest increased by 7.3% to 647,102 lots, and the net position of the top 20 increased by 14,639 lots to 4,602 lots [19]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,380 yuan/ton, and the copper - aluminum futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 57,525 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) remained unchanged. SHFE Aluminum spot prices decreased [27][30]. - **LME Premium**: As of June 19, 2025, the LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread was - 0.03 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.11 dollars/ton from June 12 [29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.99%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 5.02%, and domestic social inventory decreased by 3.05%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 10.69%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [35]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. The total import volume of bauxite increased, and port inventory rose [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: Scrap aluminum quotes remained flat, imports increased, and exports decreased [44]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production increased. In April 2025, imports decreased, and exports increased [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased. In April 2025, imports increased year - on - year [50][54]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum products increased, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the total output of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased [64]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly [67]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: In 2024 (January - May), infrastructure investment increased. In May 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound and under pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, in the second half of 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Although the growth rates of domestic production and demand will decline, there will still be a supply shortage. The price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips. The resistance risks for price highs come from the squeeze on downstream processing profits and the movement of Russian aluminum ingots [3]. - For alumina, the driving force in the second half of 2025 remains weak, but the valuation is not high, and the mine - end interference is currently controllable. The alumina market in China and the world may be in surplus throughout the year, with the overseas market likely to be better than the domestic market in the second half of the year. There may be a new price rebound window in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, in the second half of 2025, it will follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and attention should be paid to seasonal price differences. The price of ADC12 may break through the 2024 high. The AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage can be appropriately concerned, and a long - AD short - AL position can be pre - arranged [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Aluminum Product Line Market and Main Driving Logic Review 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of "double - weak" production and demand in 2025 restricts the upward imagination of aluminum prices, but the actual situation is not weak, which supports the price. After the "4.3" and "5.12" tariff events, there were cross - border arbitrage opportunities. The overall price of Shanghai aluminum showed a convergent oscillation in the first half of the year [8][9][16]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Since the high point in Q4 2024, the price has almost been halved. In Q1 2025, the production was strong while the demand was weak, and the production - demand gap was significant. Capacity maintenance and mine - end disturbances provided phased boosts. After the large - scale maintenance and production reduction in March and April, the production - demand gap converged, and the inventory started to decline [19][27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price direction mainly follows electrolytic aluminum, but it was weaker than electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 due to demand suppression. The ADC12 - A00 spread showed a convergent trend, and there was an extreme spread in April [29]. 3.2 2025 H1 Core Question: The Mystery of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory and Future De - stocking 3.2.1 Aluminum Ingot and Aluminum Bar Social Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars was strong in H1 2025. The de - stocking time of aluminum ingots was earlier than that of the same lunar period last year, and the de - stocking slope of aluminum bars was faster. The high aluminum - water ratio and scrap - to - refined substitution were the driving factors. The estimated domestic primary aluminum apparent demand from January to June was close to 23.1086 million tons, with a year - on - year cumulative growth of 4.3% [32]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Aluminum Consumption**: There was a "5.31" rush - installation in the photovoltaic market in H1 2025, but the turning point occurred in the middle of the year. The new global PV installation in 2025 is expected to be 520GW, with a growth rate of - 5%. The new domestic PV installation is expected to be 250GW, with a growth rate of - 10%. The PV aluminum consumption is expected to reduce the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate by 0.7 percentage points, with a positive contribution of 0.2 percentage points in H1 and a negative contribution of 0.9 percentage points in H2 [49][50]. - **Automobile Aluminum Consumption**: The automobile industry contributed positively to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate in H1 2025. The global new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.78 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9%. The domestic new - energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.36 million, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The annual contribution to the domestic primary aluminum demand growth rate is expected to be 1.2 percentage points, with 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points in H1 and H2 respectively [55][56]. - **Export Demand**: After the cancellation of export tax rebates and the impact of US tariffs, the export growth rate of aluminum products may still be positive. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 2.437 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The export to Mexico increased significantly, and the export of aluminum products to the US remained stable. The short - term "trade decoupling" between China and the US is not realistic [59][69]. - **Domestic Terminal Industry Consumption**: In the optimistic scenario, the demand increment of "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" for primary aluminum in 2025 is about 1.584 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 3.5 percentage points. In the neutral scenario, the demand increment is about 1.019 million tons, boosting the demand growth rate by 2.3 percentage points [94][95]. 3.2.3 Supply Side - China's primary aluminum supply environment will remain in a low - growth state this year. Attention should be paid to subsequent supply - side policy disturbances and the scale of Russian aluminum imports [3]. 3.2.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese and global markets are expected to be in short supply in the second half of 2025. Attention should be paid to the production capacity in Southeast Asia in the future [21]. 3.3 Alumina: Mine - End Interference is Currently Controllable, and the Production - Demand Gap Should be the Dominant Factor 3.3.1 Mine End - China's import of Guinea bauxite accounts for more than 70%. The "5.16" event may have made the market overly sensitive, but future risks may increase [4]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The production - demand gap should be the dominant factor. The reasonable valuation of the AO disk can be observed from three dimensions: the cash or full - cost position at a bauxite price of $70 - 80 per ton, the resumption of production increment and its sustainability at the current spot profit, and the resistance of the import window opening position to the spot price [4]. 3.3.3 Re - exploration of the Profit Distribution Pattern between Electrolytic Aluminum and Alumina - The strategy of going long on electrolytic aluminum plant profits in H1 2025 has been realized, and it is not easy to reverse in H2 [33]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 - A00 and monthly spreads may follow seasonal rules, and the spreads are expected to widen in H2 [33]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In H2 2025, there is a split between short - term drivers and valuation. Look for buying opportunities after the price correction [36]. - **Alumina**: The driving force is still weak, and the valuation is not high [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follow the Shanghai aluminum price unilaterally, and pay attention to seasonal price differences [37]. - **Structural Strategy**: Appropriate attention can be paid to the AO - AL industrial chain arbitrage, and there is profit space in the long - AD short - AL position [38].

Group 1: Report's Overall Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment strategies and outlooks [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in Shanghai copper spot price was - 40, and the change in LME inventory was - 200. Other data such as premium and import profit also showed certain changes [1] Core View - Overseas, LME copper warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained at a high level. Domestic smelting enterprises' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory was in a de - stocking channel, and domestic inventory was difficult to accumulate quickly. Copper fundamentals and inventory support remained, and attention should be paid to whether orders showed signs of weakness in the off - season next week [1] Group 3: Aluminum Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and LME inventory decreased by 2100. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [1] Core View - Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. June demand was expected to weaken seasonally, with a supply - demand gap. 6 - 7 months' inventory decline was gentle. Short - term fundamentals were okay, and attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread could be held if the absolute price fell [1] Group 4: Zinc Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and LME inventory decreased by 625. Other data such as premium and import profit also had changes [1][2][3] Core View - This week, zinc prices fluctuated and declined. Supply side: domestic TC was unchanged, and import TC rebounded slightly. Demand side: domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. Domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation was expected to appear in mid - June. The strategy was to maintain a short - allocation idea, hold the long - short spread between domestic and overseas, and pay attention to the reverse spread between months [4] Group 5: Nickel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, and LME inventory decreased by 816. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [7] Core View - Supply side: pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand side: overall demand was weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Inventory side: overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously concerned [7] Group 6: Stainless Steel Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [10] Core View - Supply side: production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. Demand side: mainly rigid demand. Cost: nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable. Inventory: inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals were weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10][11] Group 7: Lead Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot premium was 20, and LME inventory increased by 2025. Other data such as premium and import profit also changed [12] Core View - This week, lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and some recycling enterprises increased prices to sell goods. Demand side: battery inventory was high, and Tianneng's production increased, driving spot trading. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate between 16700 - 17100 next week, and supply was expected to be flat while demand was weak in June [12] Group 8: Tin Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, the change in spot import profit was - 498.60, and LME inventory increased by 20. Other data such as premium and export profit also changed [14] Core View - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply side: short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State needed negotiation, and domestic smelting enterprises in some areas cut production. Demand side: solder demand was limited, and terminal demand growth was expected to decline. Short - term, it was expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and June was a key stage to verify whether the shortage of ore would lead to a shortage of ingots. In the short - term, long - allocation could be held cautiously, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period [14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 448 [17] Core View - This week, the start - up rate in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang increased slightly. The short - term supply - demand reduction pattern was obvious, and the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reached a tight balance. In the future, supply had great potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices were expected to operate at the bottom of the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises, and the focus was on the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and the decline of thermal - power prices [17] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate Price and Inventory Data - From June 12 - 18, 2025, SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1746 [19] Core View - This week, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level. Supply side: some production lines resumed production, and overall inventory increased this week. Demand side: downstream demand was weak, and only maintained a safety inventory. In the medium - long term, if the start - up rate of leading ore - smelting integrated enterprises did not decline significantly, lithium carbonate prices would still fluctuate weakly. It was expected to continue to accumulate inventory next week, putting upward pressure on prices [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Core Points - The Trump administration is advancing another round of tariffs, which trade experts believe have stronger legal grounds than previous tariffs imposed on various countries [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce results of investigations into industries deemed critical to national security, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals, likely leading to tariffs on foreign-made products in these sectors [1][2] - The current 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum are impacting nearly $200 billion worth of goods, which is almost four times the amount during Trump's first term [1] - The expansion of tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is seen as a potential move towards near-global tariffs, affecting a wide range of imported goods [2] Industry Impact - The anticipated tariffs on pharmaceuticals are expected to encourage companies to relocate production back to the U.S. [2] - The scope of the Section 232 tariffs has broadened to include consumer goods such as dishwashers and washing machines, which are now classified as critical to national security [2] - Ongoing investigations under Section 232 are injecting uncertainty into trade negotiations, as countries are wary of committing to agreements while these investigations are pending [5] Economic Implications - The current approach to tariffs may lead to increased inflation risks, as the range of products affected has expanded significantly compared to previous tariffs focused on upstream metals [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured steel cans and tin products has already risen by 8.7% this year, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the new tariffs [6] - The potential outcomes of the expanded tariffs could include reduced product variety, inflation, or disrupted demand due to reliance on imported raw materials [6]

有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9/12月降息预期概率有所升高 国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月17日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采，几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿权或要求部分运行企业停产，广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨)， 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai aluminum market has shown a pattern of stable supply and slightly shrinking demand. The aluminum price is supported by low inventory levels and an improving aluminum - water ratio but is limited by seasonal off - peak demand. The alumina market is in a stage of loose supply and stable demand [6]. - It is recommended to lightly short - sell the Shanghai aluminum main contract on rallies and trade the alumina main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering that the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.84% to 20,440 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 1.69% to 2,852 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: In May 2025, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, indicating mild producer price increases [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on opposing unilateral tariff - imposing measures and urged the US to abide by WTO rules to promote stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bauxite prices were stable, and port inventories declined slightly. Alumina supply was loose with slightly accumulated inventory, and demand was stable. Electrolytic aluminum supply was stable, and demand was affected by the off - season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from June 6. The LME aluminum closing price on June 12 was 2,519.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.8% from June 6. The electrolytic aluminum Shanghai - LME ratio was 8.21, up 0.36 from June 6 [10][11]. - **Position Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum position was 603,083 lots, an increase of 15.25% from June 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 12,959 lots [14]. - **Price Spread Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,375 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan/ton from June 6. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,570 yuan/ton, down 1,290 yuan/ton from June 6 [18]. - **Spot Price**: As of June 13, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from June 6. The spot discount was 230 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous week [23]. - **Inventory Change**: As of June 12, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.8%, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% as of June 13, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.78% as of June 12. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3.35% as of June 13, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02% as of June 12 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [30]. - **Alumina**: As of June 13, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,978 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from June 6. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the import was 10,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%, and the export was 260,000 tons [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The output in April was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the export was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In April 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%, and the export was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 from the previous month and up 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 24.13% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 3.37% year - on - year [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%, and the output was 2,618,769 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory and pressured operation of the aluminum price in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has led to a significant rise in Midwest U.S. aluminum premiums and a shift to a premium state for LME aluminum [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data for May shows inflation pressures are temporarily easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating that the new tariff policy has not yet had a significant impact on inflation [1] - China's bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports in April hit a record high of 20.684 million tons, up 25.62% month-on-month and 45.44% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Guinea's bauxite mining policies have tightened, particularly with the revocation of mining licenses in the Axis mining area, which produces about 40 million tons annually, raising market concerns [2] - Despite the Axis mining area being closed, projections suggest that China's bauxite imports will still meet domestic demand in 2025 [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in May was 3.729 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, with stable operating capacity due to sufficient raw material supply [2] Group 3 - As of June, the aluminum processing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in weekly operating rates to 60.9% [3] - Different segments within the aluminum industry are showing varied performance, with some areas like construction and photovoltaic materials seeing reduced operating rates, while others like 3C and power pipeline orders remain strong [3] - Global aluminum inventory has dropped to approximately 966,000 tons, a decrease of 1,006,000 tons year-on-year, indicating a significant destocking trend [3] Group 4 - The U.S. tariff policy has not yet significantly suppressed domestic inflation, and combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, these factors are providing support for aluminum prices [4] - Domestic bauxite production and imports have increased significantly in the first five months of the year, despite recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite policies, maintaining a loose supply situation [4] - The current global aluminum inventory is below 1 million tons, leading to market concerns and a shift to a premium state for both domestic and international aluminum [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, there are no negative factors on the supply - side at home and abroad, consumption remains strong, and the high - demand reality is hard to change. The aluminum price is unlikely to fall due to low social inventory and the lack of a stocking trend. However, the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may face difficulties without unexpected positive stimuli. Also, beware of cost collapse risks and pay attention to social inventory changes and the US interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - For alumina, the spot market price has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has dropped. The supply is showing signs of recovery from both production and inventory. The cost of bauxite has short - term support, and the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,080 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on June 9, 2025, was 19,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,229 lots, an increase of 19,493 lots, and the holding volume was 181,672 lots, an increase of 214 lots [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,280 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 9, 2025, was 2,909 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.47%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 515,561 lots, a decrease of 180,818 lots, and the holding volume was 301,043 lots, an increase of 2,608 lots [2]. Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 362,000 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is stable, consumption is strong, and the inventory in June is expected to decline slightly. However, the sustainability of consumption is uncertain, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may be difficult without positive stimuli [3]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply is recovering. The bauxite price has short - term support, and the supply surplus expectation remains [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously Bearish [4]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in SHFE aluminum [4]