Z0018389 研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn 投资咨询证号： | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8048 | -40 | -0.50% | 18,152 | -34.22% | 24,151 | 7.38% | | PK510 | 8238 | -14 | -0.17% | 65 | 1.56% | 675 | -1.75% | | PK601 | 8152 | -46 | -0.56% | 83,345 | -31.47% | 123,473 | -4.34% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year, and it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on 2025/11/28 was 5615, with an unchanged value, a 2529 basis, a 215 basis against 2601, and a 2532 change in basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 0, with a - 5800 change, a 100 basis, a - 5500 basis against 2601, and a - 5797 change in basis [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5400, with a - 3 change, and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 73, with a - 5 change [4] - The price of SR05 was 5327, with a 2 change [4] International Market Exchange Rates - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1002, with a 0.0065 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against RMB was 1.2818, with a 0.0212 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against RMB was 0.084, with a - 0.0004 change [4] International Commodity Futures Market - The price of ICE raw sugar主力 was 15.21, with a 0.09 change [4] - The price of London white sugar主力 was 573, with a 3 change [4] - The price of Brent crude oil主力 was 62.32, with a - 0.6 change [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term trading strategies**: For soymeal, short - term trading is expected to be bullish with limited upside for the main contract; rapeseed meal will be in short - term oscillation; palm oil may stop falling in stages; soybean oil will experience short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil is short - term bullish; cotton is cautiously bullish; jujube will face pressure in rebound; and live pigs will have a short - term rebound [1]. - **Long - term trends**: For rapeseed meal, the long - term supply - demand situation is strong; for jujube, a bearish attitude is recommended in the long - run under the loose supply - demand pattern; for live pigs, Q4 will likely see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [1][14][16]. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Market conditions**: The Brazilian planting progress is behind last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic soymeal and soybean inventories are high, but the sales pressure on oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved [1]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3044 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3105.43 yuan/ton, up 8.57 yuan (0.28%) [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 942.5 million tons, a decrease of 50.10 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714.99 million tons, a decrease of 32.72 million tons (4.38%) from last week. The soymeal inventory was 115.15 million tons, an increase of 15.86 million tons (15.97%) from last week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market conditions**: Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero crushing. The short - term supply is driven by the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the near - term port inventory is high [1][6]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2452 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2557.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan (-0.37%) [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons from last week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market conditions**: The supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The EU's delay in implementing the deforestation - free law and floods in Southeast Asia have raised expectations of a production - reduction season. However, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November [7][8]. - **Inventory data**: As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons (2.13%) from last week [7]. - **Export data**: From November 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased compared to the same period in October [7]. Cotton - **Market conditions**: US cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and the supply - side story is weakening. The market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. In China, the cash - flow of downstream spinning enterprises has improved, and the cotton price has rebounded slightly, but it faces high - inventory and hedging pressure [9][12]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13725 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan (0.62%) from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14896 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.03%) [9]. - **Inventory data**: The national commercial cotton inventory increased to 417.94 million tons, higher than the same period [9]. Jujube - **Market conditions**: The new jujube production is clear, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. The premium caused by the speculation of production reduction has been mostly squeezed out [14]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9025 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-1.37%) from the previous day. The spot price of Kashgar common jujube was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged [13]. - **Inventory data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week [14]. Live Pigs - **Market conditions**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. The near - month contracts are affected by position - limit approaching, and the short - term spot - futures prices have diverged. The Q4 will see a game around the industry's average cash - flow cost [16]. - **Price data**: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) closed at 11465 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-1.04%) from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11640 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.09%) [15]. - **Inventory and sales data**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased significantly. The number of fertile sows decreased [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20]. By Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal - **行情资讯** - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose, the Brazilian soybean premium increased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Over the weekend, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 3020 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal transactions declined significantly, and the delivery was good. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons this week, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days [2]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from simultaneous growth in supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The predicted annual inventory - to - use ratio of global soybeans has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to the current 28.94%, providing bottom support [3]. - The new global soybean production has been continuously revised downwards, and the total production is now equal to the total demand, indicating a decrease in global soybean supply compared to the 24/25 season [5]. - **策略观点** - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the crushing margin is under pressure. As it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Fats and Oils - **行情资讯** - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in November first increased and then decreased compared with the previous month. On November 28, floods and landslides in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused at least 106 deaths. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils continued to rebound, and foreign investors continued to reduce their short positions in palm oil. The domestic spot basis was stable [6]. - **策略观点** - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The inventory situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [8]. Sugar - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of new sugar from major domestic sugar - making groups were stable. As of November 27, 21 sugar - mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, 36 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons compared with the same period last year. StoneX predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the largest since the 2017/18 season. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.08 million tons [10]. - **策略观点** - The new sugar - making season in major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase production, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, it is recommended to sell short at high prices and close positions when the price drops [11]. Cotton - **行情资讯** - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the January contract was 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased slightly. As of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% compared with the same period last year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast [13][14]. - **策略观点** - The demand for cotton after the peak season is not too bad, and the short - term capital push may not lead to a unilateral trend due to the hedging pressure [15]. Eggs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable or slightly increased. The laying hen inventory remained high, the proportion of small eggs gradually decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large under the rotation method. The demand support was limited, but the short - term replenishment at the low price stage may support a slight increase in egg prices [16]. - **策略观点** - The sentiment of culling laying hens is strong, and the far - month egg futures are strong. In the short term, the futures are strong, but in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, with a short - term long and medium - term short strategy [17]. Pigs - **行情资讯** - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices generally rose. The demand did not increase significantly, but the slaughter volume at the end of the month decreased, and farmers were reluctant to sell, supporting the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will continue to be strong today [19]. - **策略观点** - The theoretical pig slaughter volume is still large, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short the near - month futures or conduct reverse spreads [20].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 01 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 豆粕：隔夜美豆小涨，连粕或震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4108 +2 | （+0.05%） | 4108 -7（-0.17%） | | | 期 货 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 3044 | +5（+0.16%） | （+0.07%） 3052 +2 | | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1137.25 | +5.75（+0.51%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 318.6 | -1.8（-0.56%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3000～3120， 12-3月M2601+20/+50/+80， | 较昨 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2601合约涨幅0.04%，收于2242元/吨 | | | | 。 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，截至11月28日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约116万吨 | | | | | 。北方港口玉米库存低位开始累积，但仍处于同期偏低水平；广东港口玉米库存47 | | | | | .7万吨，谷物之间的价差优势促使饲料企业调整配方。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示当前东北产区售粮进度约22%-27%，同比偏快；基层农 | | | | | 户普遍看好后市价格，惜售心理较强。 | | | | | 3、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第48周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 120.40 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | 8.97%，同比下降 | 8.95%。 | 8、11 | 月 | 11 | 日（周二），研究机构 | CGS | International | Research | 表示，植物油市场受到需 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 求增加支撑，这将导致毛棕榈油价格进一步上涨。 | 其并称，预计 | 2026 | 年全球生物柴油需求 | 将强劲增长，给全球植物油价格提供结构性支撑。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 现货方面：截止 | 11 | 月 | 28 | 日，张家港豆油现货均价 | 8530 | 元/吨，环比 | 0 | 元/吨；基差 | 286 | 元/吨，环比下跌 | 20 | 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 | 8390 | 元/吨，环比上涨 | 100 ...

华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 豆粕月报 美豆进口加速，豆粕期价震荡整理 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 11 月豆粕期价震荡整理，11 月豆粕加权上涨 0.20%， 以 2946 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.79%，以 2433 报收。国际市场上， 美豆连续上涨 1.55%，以 1132.25 报收，美豆粉下跌 0.22%，以 322.70 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA11 月报告显示：全球大豆产量预计为 4.2175 亿吨，压 榨量为 3.6498 亿吨。全球大豆期末库存预估下调 200 万吨至 1.2199 亿吨，库存消费比预计为 20%。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 01 日星期一 近期陆续有中国采购美豆的订单，自 10 月底以来预期至少已 采购 50 船以上，中国的采购需求对 CBOT 美 ...

2025年12月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 1 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：美豆驱动不足，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差变化和仓单增速 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，情绪偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：产业逻辑将回归 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 1.15% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,626 ...

Core Insights - Cocoa futures in New York are on track for a sixth consecutive month of decline, marking the longest downturn in nearly nine years due to persistent bearish fundamentals [1] - The most active cocoa contract has dropped 14% this month, with prices falling below $5,000 per ton, reaching the lowest level since February 2024 [1] - Factors contributing to the price suppression include improved supply prospects from West Africa, the EU's delay and potential weakening of deforestation regulations, and the U.S. announcement on November 14 to exclude cocoa and other agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs [1]