Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a rise of 0.95% on January 5, with Litong Technology leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Litong Technology (code: 920225) closed at 34.98, with a gain of 9.14% and a trading volume of 52,700 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 180 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included Kexin New Energy (code: 300731) with a closing price of 57.87, up 2.93%, and Yuanchuang Technology (code: 301300) at 43.63, up 2.90% [1]. - The overall trading volume and transaction values for various stocks in the rubber sector were significant, with Kexin New Energy achieving a transaction value of 627 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 84.72 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 15.62 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors contributed a net inflow of 100 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicates that Litong Technology had a net inflow of 37.76 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 20.95% of its total trading [3]. - Conversely, Kexin New Energy experienced a net outflow of 1.99 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor classes [3].

五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等政策，市场氛围偏暖将有助橡胶 估值支撑。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——情绪偏暖烘托，胶价偏强整理，谨慎围护桩 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，尤其是RU在国内产区临近全面停割且仓单偏少情况下，或受估值"补涨"逻辑驱动 更显著，预期改善推动主力合约上涨，RU1-5价差维持平水波动，RU5-9价差走高。PMI数据显示12月国内制 造业转暖，下游需求预期升温。但橡胶整体基本面仍承压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配 套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承 压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎开工有所下滑， 交投情绪偏弱。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换 和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 6年1月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：旺产转低产，胶价震荡 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内进入停割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅1.27%，NR盘面月涨幅3.1%，BR盘面月跌幅10.61% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 17500 2022-09 2022- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 商品市场情绪偏多，橡胶维持震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前云南产区停割。海南产区西线、南部地区部分胶林正常割胶，新鲜胶水干含处于偏低水平，岛内可收胶量较为有限，受到生产利润有 所恢复提振，部分加工厂存在加价抢收情绪。（2）泰国产区：泰国整体天气趋于正常，泰柬地缘紧张局势有缓解迹象，东北部大部分区 域处于割胶高产阶 | | | | 段，杯胶价格相对坚挺；南部产区供应逐步上量，拖拽胶水价格下滑。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气整体良好，产区割胶作业未受到扰动，原料供应稳定 | | | | 在常规状态，虽备货需求暂未启动，但是本土轮胎厂刚需采购支撑因素仍在，故原料价格原料价格保持坚挺。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Energy - chemical sectors are divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubbers, polyesters, alkalis, and others[9]. - Strategies focus on constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered - call strategies to enhance returns[3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: The SC2602 contract's latest price is 432, down 6 (-1.46%), with a trading volume of 5.20 million lots (down 1.41 million lots) and an open interest of 2.96 million lots (down 0.08 million lots)[4]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The PG2602 contract's latest price is 4,132, up 40 (0.98%), with a trading volume of 8.66 million lots (up 1.37 million lots) and an open interest of 5.94 million lots (down 0.32 million lots)[4]. - **Methanol**: The MA2602 contract's latest price is 2,207, up 21 (0.96%), with a trading volume of 13.53 million lots (up 3.48 million lots) and an open interest of 4.46 million lots (down 0.95 million lots)[4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG2602 contract's latest price is 3,649, down 57 (-1.54%), with a trading volume of 0.89 million lots (up 0.32 million lots) and an open interest of 1.33 million lots (up 0.15 million lots)[4]. - **Polypropylene**: The PP2602 contract's latest price is 6,231, up 40 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 1.42 million lots (down 0.31 million lots) and an open interest of 3.47 million lots (down 0.29 million lots)[4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The V2602 contract's latest price is 4,539, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 2.37 million lots (up 1.00 million lots) and an open interest of 5.46 million lots (up 0.14 million lots)[4]. - **Plastic**: The L2602 contract's latest price is 6,299, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 1.93 million lots (up 0.56 million lots) and an open interest of 3.51 million lots (down 0.92 million lots)[4]. - **Styrene**: The EB2602 contract's latest price is 6,791, up 12 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 30.05 million lots (down 2.76 million lots) and an open interest of 31.13 million lots (down 0.88 million lots)[4]. - **Rubber**: The RU2605 contract's latest price is 15,605, down 75 (-0.48%), with a trading volume of 21.78 million lots (down 4.24 million lots) and an open interest of 16.88 million lots (down 0.68 million lots)[4]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR2602 contract's latest price is 11,520, down 30 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 9.77 million lots (down 2.36 million lots) and an open interest of 4.13 million lots (down 0.83 million lots)[4]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX2603 contract's latest price is 7,260, down 54 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 25.77 million lots (down 7.48 million lots) and an open interest of 22.95 million lots (down 1.69 million lots)[4]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: The TA2602 contract's latest price is 5,084, down 38 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 7.04 million lots (down 2.55 million lots) and an open interest of 5.58 million lots (down 0.41 million lots)[4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The PF2602 contract's latest price is 6,514, down 50 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots (down 0.74 million lots) and an open interest of 13.20 million lots (down 2.12 million lots)[4]. - **Bottle Chips**: The PR2602 contract's latest price is 6,006, down 32 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 1.09 million lots (up 0.51 million lots) and an open interest of 0.69 million lots (down 0.26 million lots)[4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2602 contract's latest price is 2,164, down 14 (-0.64%), with a trading volume of 4.01 million lots (down 1.65 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.36 million lots)[4]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA2602 contract's latest price is 1,151, down 2 (-0.17%), with a trading volume of 2.04 million lots (down 0.58 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.42 million lots)[4]. - **Urea**: The UR2602 contract's latest price is 1,670, down 7 (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 0.69 million lots (down 0.27 million lots) and an open interest of 1.47 million lots (down 0.23 million lots)[4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Crude Oil**: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.02), and open interest PCR is 0.64 (down 0.03)[5]. - **LPG**: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.68 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Methanol**: Volume PCR is 0.34 (up 0.01), and open interest PCR is 0.62 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Volume PCR is 0.38 (up 0.12), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (up 0.02)[5]. - **Polypropylene**: Volume PCR is 0.28 (down 0.09), and open interest PCR is 0.60 (down 0.02)[5]. - **PVC**: Volume PCR is 0.34 (down 0.14), and open interest PCR is 0.28 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Plastic**: Volume PCR is 0.39 (down 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Styrene**: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (unchanged)[5]. - **Rubber**: Volume PCR is 0.30 (up 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.37 (unchanged)[5]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volume PCR is 0.47 (up 0.03), and open interest PCR is 0.80 (down 0.03)[5]. - **Para - Xylene**: Volume PCR is 0.73 (down 0.34), and open interest PCR is 1.93 (up 0.07)[5]. - **PTA**: Volume PCR is 0.76 (up 0.13), and open interest PCR is 1.06 (up 0.09)[5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.04), and open interest PCR is 1.02 (unchanged)[5]. - **Bottle Chips**: Volume PCR is 0.88 (down 0.39), and open interest PCR is 1.30 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Caustic Soda**: Volume PCR is 0.38 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.46 (down 0.05)[5]. - **Soda Ash**: Volume PCR is 0.51 (down 0.07), and open interest PCR is 0.34 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Urea**: Volume PCR is 0.45 (up 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.81 (unchanged)[5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Crude Oil**: Pressure point is 540, support point is 440[6]. - **LPG**: Pressure point is 4,200, support point is 4,000[6]. - **Methanol**: Pressure point is 2,300, support point is 2,100[6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pressure point is 4,000, support point is 3,500[6]. - **Polypropylene**: Pressure point is 6,500, support point is 6,200[6]. - **PVC**: Pressure point is 5,000, support point is 4,300[6]. - **Plastic**: Pressure point is 6,600, support point is 6,200[6]. - **Styrene**: Pressure point is 7,000, support point is 6,300[6]. - **Rubber**: Pressure point is 17,000, support point is 14,000[6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pressure point is 12,600, support point is 11,000[6]. - **Para - Xylene**: Pressure point is 7,600, support point is 5,800[6]. - **PTA**: Pressure point is 5,300, support point is 4,800[6]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pressure point is 7,200, support point is 6,100[6]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pressure point is 6,400, support point is 5,300[6]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pressure point is 2,400, support point is 2,080[6]. - **Soda Ash**: Pressure point is 1,200, support point is 1,100[6]. - **Urea**: Pressure point is 1,700, support point is 1,640[6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Crude Oil**: At - the - money implied volatility is 27.75%, weighted implied volatility is 34.02% (up 1.79%), annual average is 31.44%, call implied volatility is 37.40%, put implied volatility is 28.22%, HISV20 is 26.32%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.43[7]. - **LPG**: At - the - money implied volatility is 21.17%, weighted implied volatility is 25.21% (up 1.37%), annual average is 22.22%, call implied volatility is 26.41%, put implied volatility is 21.49%, HISV20 is 18.92%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.25[7]. - **Methanol**: At - the - money implied volatility is 20.195%, weighted implied volatility is 24.65% (down 1.03%), annual average is 20.48%, call implied volatility is 26.16%, put implied volatility is 20.21%, HISV20 is 18.50%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.70[7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: At - the - money implied volatility is 15.23%, weighted implied volatility is 21.72% (down 1.60%), annual average is 15.97%, call implied volatility is 23.89%, put implied volatility is 15.99%, HISV20 is 16.78%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.55[7]. - **Polypropylene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 10.705%, weighted implied volatility is 21.30% (up 3.98%), annual average is 12.53%, call implied volatility is 23.68%, put implied volatility is 12.86%, HISV20 is 12.44%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.73[7]. - **PVC**: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.475%, weighted implied volatility is 24.68% (up 0.52%), annual average is 19.06%, call implied volatility is 26.95%, put implied volatility is 17.98%, HISV20 is 16.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.17[7]. - **Plastic**: At - the - money implied volatility is 13.345%, weighted implied volatility is 17.71% (down 2.13%), annual average is 13.27%, call implied volatility is 18.82%, put implied volatility is 14.86%, HISV20 is 13.27%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.07[7]. - **Styrene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 19.3%, weighted implied volatility is 23.95% (down 2.05%), annual average is 21.03%, call implied volatility is 24.96%, put implied volatility is 20.77%, HISV20 is 18.73%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.57[7]. - **Rubber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.62%, weighted implied volatility is 22.07% (up 0.77%), annual average is 22.84%, call implied volatility is 23.14%, put implied volatility is 18.45%, HISV20 is 18.41%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.21[7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 24.805%, weighted implied volatility is 28.06% (down 1.22%), annual average is 27.11%, call implied volatility is 29.07%, put implied volatility is 25.92%, HISV20 is 22.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.50[7]. - **Para - Xylene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.64%, weighted implied volatility is 25.42% (down 4.04%), annual average is 21.70%, call implied volatility is 27.78%, put implied volatility is 22.18%, HISV20 is 16.77%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.87[7]. - **PTA**: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.11%, weighted implied volatility is 24.96% (down 5.56%), annual average is 20.29%, call implied volatility is 27.77%, put implied volatility is 21.25%, HISV20 is 14.35%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 7.76[7]. - **Short - Fiber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.185%, weighted implied volatility is 21.88% (down 2.37%), annual average is 17.61%, call implied volatility is 23.08%, put implied volatility is 19.78%, HISV20 is 13.57%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 4.62[7]. - **Bottle Chips**: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.42%, weighted implied volatility is 23.18% (down 3.08%),

表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 605 | 15. 670 | -65 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 15, 640 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 217, 811 | 260. 240 | -42, 429 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 168.775 | 175.574 | -6, 799 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 100. 590 | 97, 290 | +3, 300 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 41, 079 | 40. 075 | +1,004 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -355 | -420 | +65 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -905 | -970 | +65 | | | 月差 | RU05-RU09 | 60 | 45 | +15 | | | 外盘报价 | RSS3 (美元 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the re - inflow of institutional allocation funds at the beginning of the year and policy support suggest a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but with uncertain economic recovery momentum, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, they may experience a short - term correction, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to be in a high - level or upward - trending state, but some may face short - term adjustments [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors [30][33]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks, such as rubber being neutral, crude oil having an upward potential for heavy oil products, etc. [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the price trends of different products are diverse. For example, pig prices may weaken in the medium - term, while egg prices may rise first and then fall [77][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Events include the US raid on Venezuela, a nuclear fusion conference, a company's IPO application, and changes in shareholding ratios [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term strategy of buying on dips due to institutional funds and policy support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Contract prices of TL, T, TF, and TS decreased. PMI data improved, and there were regulations on fund sales fees. The central bank had a net injection of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to economic improvement expectations, but with uncertain economic recovery, it's expected to be weak and volatile in Q1 [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign prices of gold and silver decreased. The Fed's policy may turn tight, and silver's lease rate is high [8]. - **Strategy**: A short - term correction may occur, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Peripheral copper prices fluctuated, LME and domestic inventories changed, and Chile's copper production decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to remain high with a slowdown in the upward trend, supported by supply and geopolitical factors [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum prices were strong, and domestic inventories and spot prices changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to external factors and supply - side support [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign zinc prices changed, and inventories and basis data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may correct in the short - term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign lead prices decreased, and inventories and basis data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated, and cost and supply - related data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decreased, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices of carbonate lithium changed, and import prices of lithium concentrate increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Although the first - quarter demand is weak, the future supply - demand is expected to improve. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index prices increased, and basis, inventory, and ore prices were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to short if there are no production cuts [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel futures prices increased, and spot prices and inventory data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices increased, and inventory and trading volume data were provided [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong and oscillate due to cost and supply factors [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory and spot price data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices and basis data were provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass futures prices were flat, and soda ash futures prices decreased. Inventory and trading data were provided [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices may rise in the short - term, and it's recommended to short soda ash at high prices in the 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton range [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. Spot prices and basis data were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment may continue to be bullish, but attention should be paid to risks. The future market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices decreased, and polysilicon prices increased slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak and oscillate. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [47][50]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and partially close the hedging position [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil futures prices decreased, and inventory data were provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The value of heavy oil products is expected to rise, and the crack spread of asphalt or fuel oil may increase [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices of methanol changed [55]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips due to low valuation and improved future outlook [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to take profit at high prices due to expected fundamental negatives [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Prices, basis, and supply - demand data of pure benzene and styrene were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before Q1 [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC futures prices decreased, and cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to the supply - demand imbalance [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation needs improvement, and it's expected to compress valuation without further production cuts [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: PTA may enter a inventory accumulation period after the Spring Festival. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [66][67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory before the maintenance season. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE futures and spot prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP futures prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out after the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices decreased in most areas, and demand varied in the north and south [76]. - **Strategy**: Short - term pig prices may be strong, but they may weaken in the medium - term. It's recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to far - month contract support [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable in most areas, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall [78]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to limited price increase and decrease space [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [80]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate due to supply - demand factors [81]. Oils - **Market Information**: Futures prices of three major oils were weak and oscillated, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Oil prices are close to the bottom range due to weak current fundamentals but optimistic expectations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and production data of India and Thailand were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton futures prices increased slightly, and supply - demand, inventory, and export data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to wait for a correction and then go long on cotton [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. Although short - term downside risks remain, due to geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long on dips [3]. - Urea: The current domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - Rubber: The current situation calls for a neutral approach and temporary observation. Partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [14]. - PVC: Fundamentally, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, supply reduction is limited, production is at a historical high, and domestic demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, strong sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, the strategy is to go short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. Before the first quarter of next year, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - Polyethylene: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - induced decline to production mismatch. Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - Polypropylene: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - PX: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern. In the short - term, there is a large expected component in the market, so beware of correction risks. In the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [27]. - PTA: In the short - term, supply will maintain high - level maintenance. Demand for polyester and chemical fibers is under pressure, and due to the off - season, the load will gradually decline. After short - term inventory depletion, PTA will enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage. In the short - term, beware of corrections due to over - expectation, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall load is still relatively high. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue, and in the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. Valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Detailed Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Futures Prices: As of the last trading day of the holidays, the INE main crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% decline, at 432.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 37.00 yuan/ton (1.49%) at 2447.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton (2.17%) at 2935.00 yuan/ton [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels (15.07% MoM), diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels (0.81% MoM), fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels (5.60% MoM), naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels (15.18% MoM), aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels (4.43% MoM), and the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels (1.00% MoM) [1]. Methanol - Spot Price Changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Spot Price Changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 59 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Price: The main contract changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 1749 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - Price Movement: Rubber prices were in a sideways consolidation. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand [10][11]. - Tire Industry: As of December 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, down 2.46 ppts from last week and 0.02 ppts from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, up 0.98 ppts from last week but down 5.05 ppts from the same period last year. Tire inventories were under high pressure [12]. - Inventory: As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 million tons, a 2.5% increase MoM. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons (3.4% increase), and that of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons (1% increase). The inventory in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons [12]. - Spot Prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14650 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1855 (- 5) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1860 (0) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8350 (0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11000 (0) yuan [13]. PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The PVC05 contract fell 5 yuan to 4805 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 305 (+5) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 134 (- 1) yuan/ton [15]. - Cost and Supply: The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 745 (0) dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 703 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase MoM; the calcium carbide method was 78.4% (0.1% decrease), and the ethylene method was 79.3% (5% increase) [15]. - Demand and Inventory: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease MoM. Factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Price and Basis: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active contract was 5463 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 123 yuan/ton (24 - yuan expansion). The spot price of styrene rose 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 6791 yuan/ton, and the basis was 109 yuan/ton (40 - yuan strengthening) [18]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.05 million tons to 13.88 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase. The operating rate of PS was 59.40% (4.90% increase), EPS was 52.56% (0.76% increase), and ABS was 69.40% (0.70% decrease) [18]. - Profit: The BZN spread was 133.37 yuan/ton (4 - yuan decrease), and the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 76.1 yuan/ton (40 - yuan increase) [18]. Polyethylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 6472 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 6375 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (1 - yuan weakening) [21]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 82.27%, a 0.82% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.79 million tons to 37.07 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 2.76 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease MoM. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton (2 - yuan narrowing) [21]. Polypropylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 6348 yuan/ton, the spot price was unchanged at 6275 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 73 yuan/ton (27 - yuan weakening) [23]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 75.65%, a 1.76% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.45 million tons to 53.33 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.24%, a 0.56% decrease MoM. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton (16 - yuan narrowing) [23][24]. PX - Futures and Spot Prices: The PX03 contract fell 56 yuan to 7260 yuan, PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 893 dollars, and the basis was - 25 yuan (+42). The 3 - 5 spread was - 6 yuan (+10) [26]. - Load and Inventory: China's PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. In December, South Korea exported 28.3 million tons of PX to China, a 0.8 - million - ton increase YoY. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease MoM [26]. - Valuation and Cost: PXN was 355 dollars (- 1), South Korea's PX - MX was 143 dollars (- 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 89 dollars (+3) [26]. PTA - Futures and Spot Prices: The PTA05 contract fell 34 yuan to 5110 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 5095 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan (- 18) [29]. - Load and Inventory: The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. On December 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease [29]. - Valuation and Cost: The spot processing fee of PTA rose 4 yuan to 349 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 347 yuan [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Prices: The EG05 contract fell 44 yuan to 3803 yuan, the East China spot price fell 13 yuan to 3681 yuan, the basis was - 141 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan (- 9) [31]. - Supply and Demand: The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 10.7 million tons, and the East China departure on December 30 was 1.1 million tons. The port inventory was 73 million tons, a 1.4 - million - ton increase [31]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit was - 829 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 925 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 188 yuan. The cost of ethylene was flat at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 540 yuan [31].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...