冠通期货-宏观2026年报 --美国中期选举，中国十五五开局 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 回顾2025年，全球经济在动荡中前行，海外特朗普上任，关税贸易大棒震惊全球，美联储重启降息催生出流动性牛市；国内，信心的重塑驱动 中国资产之重估，反内卷点燃新一轮供给侧改革，共同构成了影响全球经济走向的两大主线。当下，国际上特朗普交易的余威犹存，但其边际影响 逐步减弱，市场关注点逐步转向美国财政的可持续性与中期选举后政策路径的再校准。国内的宏观政策持续发力，以中央加杠杆为核心，托底经济、 化解风险，并在"十五五"开局之年，将绿色转型与产业升级作为推动高质量发展的核心抓手。 展望2026年，全球政治周期与科技周期的共振料将支撑风险资产，能源转型与AI投资两大浪潮则将重塑大宗商品格局。 美国视角，中期选举成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI technology industry is poised for unprecedented development opportunities as it transitions from being merely an "information connection tool" to a profound "productivity revolution" by 2026, with significant advancements in model capabilities and multi-modal technologies leading to large-scale applications in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Transition from Tool to Productivity Enhancement - The evolution of AI models in 2026 is likened to a "growing process," indicating a continuous and solid improvement in model capabilities [2]. - AI is now viewed as a key tool for enhancing productivity across industries, moving beyond concerns of market bubbles to practical applications, particularly in code generation and multi-modal capabilities [2]. - The advancements in AI will enable the generation of more realistic and coherent content, with improved reasoning speed and memory functions, enhancing applications in image and video generation [2]. Group 2: Industry Applications and Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 will be concentrated in sectors such as advertising, AI hardware, and autonomous driving, driven by enhanced model capabilities, particularly in memory and personalization [3]. - The advertising industry is expected to undergo revolutionary changes due to improved multi-modal generation capabilities, which will boost performance in the e-commerce sector [3]. - The maturity of the autonomous driving industry is anticipated to accelerate, with significant developments in L3 autonomous driving models and ongoing advancements from companies like Tesla, Huawei, and XPeng Motors [3]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Hardware - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to grow as AI needs increase, making it a long-term investment opportunity [4]. - The complexity of AI models will drive the need for enhanced storage and computing capabilities, with data centers and cloud computing infrastructure becoming critical investment areas in 2026 [4]. - AI hardware, including AI glasses, smartphones, and PCs, will face significant market tests, with growth dependent on the integration of multi-modal capabilities [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - In the U.S. market, AI remains a core theme driving technology stocks, with major tech companies' AI revenues beginning to cover depreciation costs, allowing for effective valuation management [5]. - The Hong Kong market is supported by expectations of global liquidity easing, with AI model companies entering the IPO phase, indicating strong investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and applications [6]. - In the A-share market, the focus is on industry chain collaboration and specific application scenarios, with domestic model companies seeking monetization paths in vertical sectors like manufacturing and finance [6]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Concerns about excessive market gains are mitigated by the understanding that as technology becomes integral to productivity, performance improvements will naturally address valuation bubbles [7]. - The first half of 2026 is seen as a critical observation window, with stronger and more practical AI models expected to reshape market consensus, establishing AI as a genuine growth driver rather than just an investment theme [7].

Core Insights - The AI industry is poised for unprecedented growth opportunities as it transitions from being an "information connection tool" to a "productivity revolution" by 2026 [1][2] - The evolution of AI models will be gradual and substantial, enhancing capabilities in reasoning, memory, and content generation [2][3] Industry Trends - AI will increasingly serve as a key tool for productivity enhancement across various sectors, including advertising, e-commerce, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [2][3] - The advertising industry is expected to experience revolutionary changes due to improved multi-modal generation capabilities, which will drive performance growth in e-commerce [3] - The autonomous driving sector is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, with the first L3 autonomous driving models in China receiving approval, marking a significant step towards commercialization [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities will emerge in sectors where AI model capabilities are enhanced, particularly in advertising, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [3][4] - AI infrastructure will be a long-term investment opportunity, with increasing demand for storage and computing capabilities as AI models become more complex [4] - AI hardware, including devices like glasses, smartphones, and PCs, will face significant market tests in 2026, driven by the integration of multi-modal capabilities [4] Market Dynamics - In the U.S. market, AI remains a core theme driving technology stocks, with major tech companies' AI revenues beginning to cover depreciation costs [5] - The Hong Kong market is seeing a supportive liquidity environment, with AI model companies entering the IPO phase, indicating strong investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and applications [6] - The A-share market is focusing on industry chain collaboration and specific application scenarios, with domestic model companies entering a commercialization phase [6] Future Outlook - Concerns about excessive market gains should not hinder the growth of technology as performance improvements will naturally absorb valuation bubbles [7] - The first half of 2026 will serve as an observation window for the market, as stronger and more practical AI models are released [7] - The consensus will shift towards recognizing AI as a genuine growth driver rather than just an investment theme [7]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a nine-day rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.03% [1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.32%, while the North China 50 Index rose by 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.4078 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,400 stocks in the market declined [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included carbon fiber, diversified finance, brain-computer interfaces, non-ferrous metals, CPO, wind power equipment, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots [1] - Underperforming sectors were food and beverage, retail, batteries, chemicals, and influenza [1] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw gains, with the Dachen Fund Non-Ferrous Metal ETF rising by 2.9% [1] - The oil and gas sector performed well, with the Penghua Fund Oil and Gas ETF and the Jingshun Great Wall Fund Oil and Gas ETF increasing by 2% and 1.92%, respectively [1] - The AI sector showed signs of recovery, with the Kexin AI ETF and the Kexin Artificial Intelligence ETF rising by 2% [1] - The commercial aerospace sector continued its upward trend, with the Satellite ETF from Yifangda increasing by 1.7% [1] Declining ETFs - High-premium Hong Kong stock ETFs saw significant declines, with the Hang Seng ETF for Hong Kong Stock Connect hitting the limit down and the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF dropping by 7% [1] - The latest premium/discount rates for these ETFs were 5% and 0.27%, respectively [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector declined, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF falling by 2% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF decreasing by 1.7% [1] - Power stocks experienced a pullback, with the Green Power ETF and Power ETF both declining by 1.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ant Group's AI health assistant "Ant Aifu" has issued a statement clarifying that its Q&A results contain no advertising recommendations and are not influenced by commercial rankings [1] Group 1 - Ant Aifu emphasizes that its Q&A results are free from commercial interference, ensuring professional and objective delivery of reliable health information [1] - The company warns users to be cautious of market rumors and commercial hype to avoid being misled [1] - The announcement comes amid increased market attention on the AI assistant sector, particularly following JD's announcement of internal testing for its own life service AI assistant [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance of the **MXCN** (Mainland China Index) and **CSI300** (China Securities Index 300) for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting trends in various sectors including **Healthcare**, **IT**, **Financials**, **Materials**, **Property**, and **Consumer Discretionary** [4][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **MXCN Performance**: As of December 22, 2025, approximately 88% of MXCN's market capitalization reported 3Q25 results, showing an **EPS growth of +8.1% year-on-year (y-y)**, with a **net profit margin (NPM) contraction of 44 basis points (bps)** and **sales per share growth of +12% y-y**. Sectors like **Healthcare**, **IT**, **Financials**, and **Materials** reported over **30% EPS growth y-y** [4][7]. - **CSI300 Results**: All CSI300 constituents reported 3Q25 results, with **EPS growth momentum increasing from +2.5% y-y in 2Q25 to +11.6% y-y in 3Q25**. This was supported by **sales per share growth of +3.4% y-y** and **NPM expansion of 76 bps y-y**. The **Materials** and **IT** sectors exhibited the largest EPS growth at **+50.4%** and **+49% y-y**, respectively [4][9]. - **4Q25 EPS Outlook**: The outlook for 4Q25 indicates a potential **EPS decline of -9.1% y-y**, suggesting that the current consensus for **2.5% EPS growth y-y for 2025** may be conservative. Financials and Communications Services are expected to require significant ramp-up in EPS growth to meet consensus estimates [4][8]. Sector-Specific Highlights - **Food Delivery and E-Tailing**: Competition remains intense, particularly for higher-frequency users. Companies like **Alibaba** and **Meituan** reported improved unit economics in 3Q25, but ongoing competition for affluent consumers is anticipated. Domestic consumption growth in online retail is moderating, with **Alibaba's customer management revenue** growing **+10% y-y** and **PDD's online marketing revenue** increasing **+8% y-y** [4][5]. - **AI Adoption**: Different strategies for AI are being adopted by major players: - **Baidu** reported **Rmb9.6 billion** in AI-related revenue, constituting **30.8% of total revenue** in 3Q25, with significant growth in AI-native marketing services [6]. - **Alibaba** experienced a **34% y-y growth** in cloud revenue, with AI-related revenue growing at triple digits [6]. - **Tencent** is taking a more cautious approach, focusing on integrating AI into existing services rather than aggressive investment in AI infrastructure [6]. - **PC and Server Demand**: Rising memory prices are curbing demand, but **Lenovo** reported double-digit revenue growth across its segments. **Huaqin Technology** is gaining market share with a **59% y-y net profit growth** in 3Q25, driven by strong performance in smartphones and PCs [6]. Additional Important Insights - The **4Q25 reporting season** is set to begin in January 2026, with expectations for peak reporting in March-April 2026 [4]. - The **real estate sector** is facing significant challenges, with the largest EPS declines reported at **-315% y-y** for the sector [4][9]. - Overall, the trends indicate a mixed outlook for various sectors, with some showing strong growth while others face headwinds, particularly in consumer discretionary and real estate [4][8].

□本报记者 张韵 崔宸龙，2016年11月至2017年8月任深圳市前海安康投资发展有限公司研究部研究员。2017年8月加入前 海开源基金，现任首席ESG官、投资部负责人、基金经理。截至今年三季度末，其在管基金总规模超过 150亿元。 曾因初管产品仅一年多，便摘得股基、混基双料冠军而被誉为"黑马"基金经理；曾因踩中新能源行情， 管理规模从不到7亿元飙升至最高超400亿元，一跃成为头部基金经理。也曾在随后的调整行情中，因净 值回撤被质疑，基金规模大幅缩水；更由于对新能源板块的重仓，而被贴上赛道型基金经理的标签…… 时过境迁，前海开源基金投资部负责人、基金经理、首席ESG官崔宸龙正在逐渐开启新的征程。 数据显示，截至发稿时，崔宸龙在管产品净值今年以来均涨超15%。多只在管基金的近三年、近五年业 绩位居同类产品前列。 近日，崔宸龙在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，人生中起起落落在所难免，作为投资者，更重要的是 追求投资能力不断提升，持续拓展能力圈。他一直尝试打破过往赛道型基金经理的桎梏，延伸至全市场 投资。展望未来，他表示，在多个行业基本面向好和市场整体流动性宽松的双重提振下，继续看好权益 市场，2026年会重点关注大 ...

Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025 has become a core investment theme, driving significant capital market momentum and shifting the focus from performance competition to cost, efficiency, and commercialization capabilities in the AI sector [2] - The AI industry has seen a concentration of funds towards leading companies, with notable stock performances such as the "Yi Zhong Tian" combination, which saw gains exceeding 450% [2] - The human-robotics sector has entered a commercialized phase, with over 46 billion yuan in total orders and more than 20,000 units sold, indicating a shift from conceptual collaborations to practical applications [4][5] Group 2: Film and Entertainment Industry - The film "Nezha 2" achieved a record-breaking box office of 15.4 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese animation industry and contributing to a total annual box office of over 50 billion yuan, a 75 billion yuan increase from 2024 [3] - The success of "Nezha 2" and other animated films reflects the growing market potential for domestic animation, providing a reference for future creative and investment strategies in the film industry [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The intense competition in the food delivery industry, initiated by JD's entry with a no-commission model, has led to significant market disruptions and a series of subsidy wars among major platforms, resulting in a 141 billion yuan loss for Meituan's core local business despite record user numbers [7] - Regulatory bodies have intervened to address the chaotic competition, leading to commitments from major platforms to improve service quality and return to rational development [7] Group 4: Capital Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a record high in cash dividends, totaling 2.61 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase in companies' willingness to return profits to shareholders and enhancing market resilience [11] - The emergence of "GPU dual heroes" in the capital market, with multiple domestic GPU companies going public, signifies a milestone for the domestic AI chip industry and a shift towards self-sufficiency [10] Group 5: Industry Regulation and Quality Improvement - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced a price recovery due to regulatory efforts to combat "involution" competition, with lithium carbonate futures seeing significant price increases [12] - The charging battery industry is transitioning to a more orderly development phase following regulatory changes and recalls by major brands, addressing issues of safety and compliance [13]

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed a significant reshaping of the global business landscape driven by AI, with OpenAI emerging as a "shadow giant" despite not being publicly listed, influencing market valuations through orders and narratives [1][3] - Nvidia became the world's first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, while Google aggressively pursued AI pricing power [1][3] - The year marked a collision of old and new orders, characterized by a mix of high-stakes bets and reversals, reshaping technology, capital, and the direction of the era [1][3] Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. government launched the "Stargate" initiative, committing $500 billion to build 20 large-scale AI data centers, but faced challenges in execution, leading to a significant reduction in project scope [5][6] - CoreWeave went public with a valuation of approximately $230 billion, marking the first public market pricing of AI computing power, and secured substantial long-term contracts with major clients [7][9] - Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel, marking a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing competitiveness in the PC and data center markets [11][13] Group 2: OpenAI's Market Influence - OpenAI, although not publicly traded, became a key driver of market sentiment, with its initiatives and financial performance causing significant fluctuations in stock prices across the AI sector [15][17] - The company faced scrutiny over its financial sustainability, with concerns about its revenue and valuation mismatch leading to a decline in market confidence [19] - By the end of the year, OpenAI's perceived value shifted from a premium label to a risk exposure, reflecting the changing dynamics in the AI market [19] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The AI competition evolved from a focus on strength to considerations of cost-effectiveness and usability, with Google positioning itself to challenge Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure [38][39] - The automotive industry saw a significant policy reversal in Germany, allowing internal combustion engines to remain viable beyond 2035, highlighting the tension between aggressive transition goals and market realities [33][34] - SpaceX's record number of launches in 2025 redefined the concept of "industrialized space," showcasing the potential for scalable operations in the aerospace sector [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of Wu Haining, a fund manager at Hengyue Fund, focusing on capturing opportunities in the technology sector amidst rapid shifts in sub-sector hotspots [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Performance - Wu Haining's management of Hengyue Advantage Select has yielded a one-year return of 142.56%, ranking sixth among similar funds, attributed to effective control over the rotation of high-growth technology sectors [2]. - In Q1, the fund primarily invested in smart driving, domestic computing power, and the Apple supply chain, with a notable increase in AI computing targets [2]. - By Q2, the fund reduced its holdings in smart driving due to price pressures and increased investments in the PCB sector and upstream materials, while also positioning in sectors like military, gaming, and new energy that showed signs of recovery [2]. - In Q3, the focus remained on AI computing, with some profit-taking on targets that had reached their goals, and an increased allocation to the storage sector due to a price increase cycle starting in September [2]. - For Q4, the emphasis shifted to energy storage and domestic semiconductor equipment, with a long-term positive outlook on the North American AI computing industry chain [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Wu Haining anticipates continued opportunities in 2026, with liquidity being a key factor as major economies are likely to remain in a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a relatively loose funding environment [4]. - The AI industry is expected to be in its early stages, with core companies in the supply chain showing high earnings growth certainty, particularly monitoring Alibaba's AI capital expenditures and model advancements [4]. - The investment focus for 2026 includes energy storage, storage chips, AI computing, semiconductor equipment materials, and lithium solid-state batteries, along with globally competitive companies expanding in international markets [4]. - The stock selection logic will involve assessing industry growth potential and focusing on companies with high earnings elasticity, maintaining a core of familiar mid-to-long-term investments while adding short-term elastic stocks to enhance returns [4]. Group 3: Specific Investment Directions - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with predictions of domestic shortages and price increases in 2026, while the economic viability of independent storage in China is becoming evident [5]. - The storage chip sector is entering a price increase cycle, driven by AI's demand for data storage, with AI video generation requiring significantly more storage than text or image generation [6]. - Domestic production capabilities for storage chips have reached international standards, and the etching equipment necessary for chip production is expected to benefit from the ongoing upcycle in the industry [6].