6月21日，汇正财经2025年中策略会在上海圆满落幕，本次策略会以"智启创新，投领未来"为核心主题，聚焦半导体、人形机器人、新消费等细分场景， 汇聚了一众经济学家、产业专家及投资界领军人物，共同探讨全球宏观经济趋势、科技创新驱动下的产业变革及资本市场投资机遇。活动通过线上线下同 步直播，吸引了超36.5万人次观看，在当前经济发展的重要窗口期，为投资者锚定全景式的投资策略。 汇正财经联席所长虞瑞捷在开场致辞中强调，中国经济有强大的韧劲，民众有巨大的信心，值此重要节点上，我们要更有勇立潮头的勇气，汇正财经将以 专业研究视角携手广大投资者共同进退。 著名经济学家洪灏：2025年中期宏观经济与展望 洪灏表示，中国的A股市场在全球贸易战及美股市场历史性下跌中保持了坚挺态势，同时内地的投资者对港股的配置需求不断提升，全球经济市场进入了 模式的转换，中国市场等新兴市场将明显受益于市场轮动，资金将释放更多的可能性，尤其是港股市场可能会引来再创新高的表现。 从去年的政府工作报告重点提到了大力提升消费，提高投资效益，全面扩大内需，今年来政策更是把扩大内需放到了首位。超长期特别国债、国补、消费 券等政策真金白银的在刺激消费，使得上 ...

金十数据6月25日讯，二季度以来，新消费赛道多点开花，多家新消费企业涨幅突出，吸引上百家公募 基金、保险资管、外资等主流投资机构密集调研。从投资逻辑来看，新消费企业的独特性正迫使基金经 理改变投资策略。一位公募基金经理表示，新消费企业具有较强稀缺性，部分冷门赛道中上市公司数量 可能只有一两家，这也导致自上而下策略很难实行，只能通过个股挖掘和深入调研来发掘机会。 （中 证报） 机构掀起消费新势力调研热浪 ...

·沪指再度站上3400点，两市成交额超1.4万亿市场全天震荡走高，创业板指领涨，沪指再度站上3400 点。截至收盘，沪指涨1.15%，深成指涨1.68%，创业板指涨2.3%。沪深两市成交额约14146.14亿元，较 前一个交易日放量约2919.85亿元。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌少，从板块来看，固态电 池概念股再度爆发，诺德股份等10余股涨停。此外，机器人概念股展开反弹，无人驾驶概念股表现活 跃。下跌方面，油气股集体大跌，准油股份等跌停。详情>> 燕翔：港币触及弱方保证怎么看 截至6月23日，美元兑港股汇率报价7.85，相比5月初的7.75高点贬值1.3%。一般来讲，香港金融管理局 会通过买卖港元使得美元兑港币汇率维持在7.75-7.85区间，当港币走强触及7.75上限，即达到强方兑换 保证水平，香港金融管理局往往会投放港币，释放流动性；反之当港币走弱触及7.85下限，即触及弱方 兑换保证，香港金融管理局会买入港币，收紧流动性。5月份以来短短一个多月时间港币汇率由强方保 证快速触及至弱方保证，引发市场关注。具体原因来看，本轮港币汇率波动发生在美元指数走弱期间， 并非因美元升值而发生的被动贬值。相反， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence in performance between new and old consumption sectors in 2024, highlighting the strong growth of new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold compared to the stagnation of traditional sectors like liquor and condiments [4][5]. Group 1: Changes in Consumption Investment Logic - The investment logic in consumer stocks is shifting from "alcohol content" to "new content," driven by evolving consumer needs and preferences [5]. - As material needs are met, consumers are increasingly seeking products that fulfill psychological and social desires, leading to the rise of new consumption brands that cater to younger demographics [6]. - Economic conditions influence consumer spending power, with current trends favoring value-driven purchases as consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness amid economic uncertainty [9][10]. Group 2: New Consumption Investment Opportunities - New consumption companies have shown remarkable stock performance, with Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold significantly contributing to the growth of various funds [12]. - As of Q1 2025, 207 funds held Pop Mart shares worth approximately 9.928 billion yuan, with notable funds achieving net value growth rates of 61.6% and 58.74% [12][13]. - The emergence of new consumption has been characterized by a mix of market replacement and cultural expansion, indicating higher growth potential compared to traditional sectors [11]. Group 3: Reasons for Missed Investment Opportunities - Different responses and strategies among fund managers have led to varied outcomes in capitalizing on new consumption trends, influenced by their understanding and investment frameworks [15]. - Older fund managers may struggle to grasp the appeal of new consumption products, while younger managers are more attuned to these trends, impacting their investment decisions [16]. - Regulatory constraints and the structured investment process in public funds can limit the ability to invest in emerging new consumption stocks, which may not fit established investment criteria [17]. Group 4: New Consumption vs. Old Consumption - The valuation of new consumption stocks has surged, with high price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential risks if growth expectations are not met [20]. - In contrast, traditional consumption stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring have seen valuation compression, presenting a more stable investment opportunity [21]. - The article suggests that while new consumption is currently favored, traditional sectors are adapting and may present future opportunities as they innovate and enhance shareholder returns [24]. Group 5: Conclusion - Investors are advised to choose between new and old consumption based on their risk tolerance, with a focus on long-term value and growth potential [25].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.82%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index leading with a 1.05% gain, despite a slight decrease in trading volume to HKD 198.5 billion [2] - Northbound capital saw significant inflows, with a net inflow of HKD 7.895 billion, marking the highest level since June [2] - The semiconductor sector performed notably well, with stocks like SMIC (981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) seeing gains of 4.56% and 4.43% respectively, driven by external pressures on the Chinese semiconductor industry [4] Group 2: Company Analysis - IFBH (6603.HK) - IFBH is a leading coconut water brand in China and globally, with revenues projected to grow from USD 8.7 million in 2022 to USD 15.7 million in 2024, representing an 80% year-on-year increase [10][11] - The company operates on a light-asset model, outsourcing production and sales, which allows for high operational efficiency and low capital investment [12] - The coconut water market is expanding rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 14.7% from 2019 to 2024, and IFBH holds a market share of 33.9% in mainland China and 59.9% in Hong Kong [11][12] Group 3: Financial Projections and Investment Considerations - The company expects to raise between HKD 1.05 billion to HKD 1.16 billion through its IPO, with planned allocations for enhancing distribution capabilities, brand building, and strategic alliances [16] - The IPO price range is set at HKD 25.3 to HKD 27.8, with a projected market capitalization of HKD 6.7 billion to HKD 7.4 billion post-IPO, reflecting a reasonable valuation given the company's growth trajectory [17] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with net cash of USD 5.4 million and operating cash flow of USD 4.1 million expected in 2024, indicating robust financial health [17]

风险提示：海外流动性快速收紧；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|海外与外资周观察——港股能否重拾上涨动力？》 1、4 月初以来，恒生指数已实现较为可观的涨幅，但板块热度出现明显 分化。港股银行拥挤度从 3 月开始逐渐提升但斜率较缓，仍低于去年平均 水平，可以认为情绪尚未过热。恒生科技与港股创新药的拥挤度指标出现 分化，前者回落至去年平均水平，后者不断刷新近年高位。新消费板块中， 以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为代表的成分股也出现拥挤度中枢明显 上移的情形。2、港股需要保持较高的涨幅集中度，指数才有可能实现高 收益。因此需要观察资金是否回流阿里、小米、腾讯等权重股上，但从港 股通持股量看，南向资金更多表现为逆向投资（"涨卖跌买"），当前左侧 押注意愿并不强烈。3、投资意见方面，当前板块轮动的难度正在加大， 同时海外地缘冲突扰动、内部流动性收紧的压力也在上升，建议对港股后 续走势保持谨慎，等待资金面与情绪面出现一定缓解后择机介入，方向上 坚持杠铃配置，一方面港股银行板块仍然存在溢价压缩空间，另一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has negatively impacted risk appetite, leading to a narrow range of market fluctuations and a decrease in trading volume to around one trillion [2][16] - The banking index has risen significantly, with multiple bank stocks reaching historical highs, while sectors like stablecoins and oil and gas have performed well [2][16] - The AI and robotics sectors, which had previously experienced declines, showed slight rebounds, while the innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors faced significant adjustments [2][16] Group 2 - There is a divergence in the performance of banks and micro-cap stocks, with banks continuing to rise while micro-cap stocks have adjusted downwards due to various factors, including stable policy expectations and upcoming mid-year earnings reports [17] - The AH share premium rate has rebounded to 130 points, correlating with the US dollar index, indicating international capital flows favoring Hong Kong stocks [18] - The sentiment in the liquor sector has improved due to policy guidance, although long-term challenges such as demographic changes and evolving consumer preferences remain [19] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF will be included in the fund advisory configuration range, aiming to enhance the board's demonstration effect and promote broader institutional breakthroughs [20] - The active equity fund indices showed varied performance, with the active stock fund index down 1.63% last week but achieving a cumulative excess return of 12.23% since inception [5][21] - The healthcare sector index experienced a significant decline of 6.82% last week, but it has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.96% since inception [9][21]

6月23日，港股三大指数集体反弹。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.67%，国企指数涨0.82%，恒生科技指数涨 1.05%。 涨幅靠前还有医药股，生物医药股、医美概念、创新药概念、医药外包概念股等纷纷冲高。其中，君实 生物（01877.HK）涨8.09%，荣昌生物（09995.HK）涨6.73%，百济神州（06160.HK）涨6.18%，康方 生物（09926.HK）涨4.27%，三生制药（01530.HK）涨5.29%，医思健康（02138.HK）涨5.36%，泰格 医药（03347.HK）涨2.49%。 分板块看，芯片股涨幅居前。华虹半导体（01347.HK）涨4.43%，中芯国际（00981.HK）涨4.56%，晶 门半导体（02878.HK）涨3.53%，上海复旦（01385.HK）涨1.58%。 消息面上，有消息称美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求 这些企业今后需逐案申请许可证。美商务部官员称此举旨在限制美国关键技术流向中国，但遭到美国国 防部等部门反对。 机构称，近年来外部环境对中国半导体产业限制不断加剧，国产替代有望加速推进，国内半导体产业链 国产化率较低的环节有望 ...

今日，恒生指数涨0.67%，国企指数、恒生科技指数涨0.82%及1.05%。 此外，今日三只新股上市，药捷安康-B大涨78.7%，佰泽医疗涨超42%，三花智控低开高走微幅收跌。 具体来看： 半导体板块涨幅居前，宏光半导体涨超7%，华虹半导体、中芯国际、脑洞科技涨超4%，晶门半导体涨超3%，上海复旦涨超1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | 0 | 23689.13 | +158.65 | 0.67% | | 800100 | 国正指数 | | 8597.36 | +70.29 | 0.82% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5187.01 | +53.87 | 1.05% | 盘面上，大型科技股多数由跌转涨，美团、快手涨超2%，小米涨1.48%，百度、网易飘红，腾讯、京东、阿里巴巴小幅下跌。 美拟取消芯片设备豁免，半导体芯片股全天表现强势，宏光半导体涨近8%，龙头中芯国际涨4.56%。 生物医药股午后拉升明显，君实生物大涨8%，荣昌生物、百济神州涨超6 ...