Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report on green finance and new energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to news - related risks [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It will oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [2][10] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news has boosted sentiment [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,330 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from T - 1. There were also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [4] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental issues in Indonesian industrial parks, changes in mining quotas, production suspensions due to losses, and production cuts in Chinese steel mills [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 87,580 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain [11] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and Jiangte Motor's subsidiary resumed production [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1. The PS2511 closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of related products [15] - **News**: T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers from Corning, with expected deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a transition from a consumption off-season to a peak season, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 1.3% nickel ore around CIF 42 and for 1.4% nickel ore around CIF 50 [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, with a projected output of 330.41 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [1] Pricing and Inventory - As of August 18, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, while in Foshan it remains stable at 13,050 yuan/ton [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 49.65 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 million tons [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall profit margins for steel mills have improved, leading to increased production motivation, which may exert pressure on supply in August [3] - Despite seasonal and policy improvements in demand expectations, the actual terminal demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3] - The chromium iron price is expected to remain strong due to cost support from chromium ore [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Under the fundamental logic, it fluctuates in a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent events in Indonesia, so be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation [4]. - Stainless steel: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price fluctuates [5]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [34]. - Polysilicon: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips [35]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply is weak while demand is strong, and the price is strengthening [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The marginal operation of the fundamentals is relatively stable. The global refined nickel's visible inventory shows a gentle increase, dragging down the upper limit of nickel prices. The long - term low - cost supply increment may change the cost curve pattern. In the short - term and the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation may be at the window boundary of the ferronickel conversion path. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upper limit of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The overall decline of the ore price is relatively mild, and the support has weakened slightly, but it is still difficult for the price to fall sharply. The hype of nickel ore contradictions may decrease, limiting the elasticity of nickel prices [4]. - **Market News Impact**: Indonesia may crack down on illegal mining, change the RKAB approval cycle, and re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula. These events increase the risk of short - selling at low levels and add uncertainty to the nickel price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated. The long - side logic focuses on the decline of inventory at a high level, the reduction of factory inventory pressure in July, and the potential reduction in supply due to policy tightening. The short - side logic comes from the actual supply - demand situation, where the alleviation of pressure needs to be continuous, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Social inventory has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the factory inventory pressure in July has decreased. The stainless steel production in August is 3.25 million tons, with a marginal increase. The production in Indonesia in August is 420,000 tons [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week, and the spot price increased. The futures price first rose, then fell, and then rose again, influenced by other varieties and macro - sentiment. The spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in the southwest and northwest regions had some resumptions, but the rhythm was slow. On the demand side, the short - term demand of downstream industries increased marginally, with the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supporting consumption [31][32]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large - scale resumption, the futures price may follow the coking coal futures, but the long - term fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high levels and take profits at low levels [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated widely this week, showing a relatively strong trend overall. The spot market had some transactions, but the price did not show obvious improvement [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production remained at a high level, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand from the silicon wafer side improved, and the production in August increased slightly compared with July [32][33]. - **Market Outlook**: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips. The spot market's signing is approaching the end, and the terminal demand may decrease in September. It is recommended to take profit on the PS2511 - PS2512 inter - period positive spread and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis and the spread between contracts changed accordingly [54]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, production in Jiangxi and Qinghai was affected, and there were concerns about future production. On the demand side, the downstream production demand in August improved significantly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of futures warrants increased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to supply disturbances, the lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month. If the downstream demand in September strengthens, the price will continue to be strong. The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - In the short - term, Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices, limiting the upside space of nickel prices [3] - In the short - term, stainless steel may also continue its weak and volatile trend. In the long - term, the increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of stainless steel cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making it difficult for stainless steel prices to break through [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,700 yuan/ton and closed at 121,200 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 102,257 lots, and the open interest was 66,437 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, with prices stable. Sea freight slightly increased due to weather and shipping capacity. In the Philippines, mines were reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, the August (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to drop slightly, and some iron plants were bearish on the premium [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel improved slightly, with changes in premiums for different types of nickel [2] Strategy - Short - term: Shanghai nickel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the upside space of nickel prices is limited. Unilateral strategy: mainly range - bound operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,175 yuan/ton and closed at 13,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 160,562 lots, and the open interest was 135,237 lots. Night - trading showed limited capital participation and a wait - and - see attitude. Day - trading saw short - position funds actively increasing positions, and market sentiment turned pessimistic [3][4] - After the stainless steel futures price rose earlier in the week, the spot price increased, but downstream acceptance was poor. As the futures price fell, the spot price also dropped due to the pressure of sales [4] Strategy - Short - term: Stainless steel may continue its weak and volatile trend. Long - term: The increase in the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore and the upward shift of cost support may limit the decline, but the global oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and prices are difficult to break through. Unilateral strategy: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].