Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Trade Agreements Overview - The Trump administration has reached trade agreements with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, covering 38.6% of total US goods imports and 49.8% of the US trade deficit in 2024 (excluding the UK) [3] - The US-UK trade agreement includes a 10% base tariff and industry export quotas, with ongoing negotiations on specific details [4] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement proposes a 20% base tariff and a 40% tariff on re-exported goods, reflecting a significant imbalance in tariff rates [5] Tariff Structures and Economic Impact - The US-Japan trade agreement imposes a 15% base tariff on exports, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US, aiming to boost domestic industrial production [5] - The US-EU agreement also includes a 15% base tariff, with the EU required to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 [5] - The tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper range from 25% to 50%, with an estimated $70.7 billion in tariffs expected from these metals in 2024 [5] Future Implications - Industry tariffs are likely to become a central focus of Trump's trade policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and promoting domestic manufacturing [5] - The potential for increased tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and rare minerals is anticipated, with ongoing investigations into these industries [5] - The overall tariff revenue for the US is projected to exceed $28 billion by July 2025, indicating a significant reliance on tariff income [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on BHP with a target price of 44 AUD, despite the stock rising 18% since June, outperforming the ASX200 index which increased by 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, BHP's EBITDA is projected to be 26 billion USD and net profit at 10.2 billion USD, aligning with Morgan Stanley's and consensus expectations [1] - The final dividend per share is set at 0.60 AUD, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of 0.49 AUD and consensus estimate of 0.51 AUD, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Group 2: Cost Guidance - The new cost guidance for Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) for fiscal year 2026 is approximately 19 USD per ton, lower than Morgan Stanley's expectations and closer to consensus [1] - Cost guidance for copper and coking coal remains largely in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Debt - Mid-term capital expenditure has been reduced from 11 billion USD to 10 billion USD due to project rescheduling and a decrease in low-carbon spending [1] - BHP has adjusted its net debt target range from 5 billion to 15 billion USD to 10 billion to 20 billion USD, leading to a 4% increase in earnings expectations for 2026 due to lower costs [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry's mid-cycle outlook faces challenges due to weak demand and tariff barriers, with companies like Tata Steel, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics expected to maintain relative premium due to favorable demand prospects and tariff protections [3][5] - Chinese steel companies are anticipated to improve profitability due to demand recovery and production cuts, with a year-on-year demand growth of 4.3% driven mainly by the automotive and machinery sectors, while exports grew by 9.2% [5][6] - North American steel producers have an optimistic outlook despite uncertainties from tariff policy changes and infrastructure investment delays, with a projected 3% decline in steel demand in 2024 followed by a 2% rebound in 2025 [12][14] Group 2: Copper Industry Insights - U.S. copper tariffs aim to encourage supply repatriation, but limited smelting capacity and slow approval processes hinder this goal, leading to continued reliance on imports [7][8] - Freeport-McMoRan is expected to benefit from increased sales, as U.S. refined copper production in 2024 is projected at 850,000 tons, meeting less than half of the demand [7][8] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is expected to be revalued further, driven by strong industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio potentially moving from 90 to 80 as macroeconomic factors shift [10][11]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The crude oil market is volatile. Brent's October contract fell 0.77%. There is pressure of accelerated inventory build - up after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may decline in the medium term. Hold a long strangle strategy for out - of - the - money options in the short term and consider short positions later [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals were weak. With the clarification of US tariffs and progress in Russia - Ukraine talks, the market's risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and precious metals are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Wait patiently for pull - back entry points [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices broke below the MA60 moving average. Trump included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list. The copper market is still carefully assessing economic growth risks. Hold short positions above 79,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [4] Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. It may be approaching the peak of off - season inventory build - up. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,300 yuan. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is in a weak oscillation [5] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the alloy industry's profit is poor. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread between the spot and AL will gradually narrow [6] Zinc - In the first half of 2025, the output of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% year - on - year. The demand is in the off - season. Due to vehicle transportation restrictions in Tianjin, some galvanized small factories have stopped production. The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals dominate, and Shanghai zinc has fallen for five consecutive trading days. Be vigilant against macro - sentiment fluctuations as the "Golden September and Silver October" approach [7] Lead - The consumption of lead fails to show the peak - season characteristics, dragging the price into a weak oscillation. The raw - material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. In late August, pay attention to traffic control in lead - ingot production areas and regular maintenance of primary lead plants. There is an expectation of demand recovery after the beginning of autumn and approaching the new semester [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced stainless - steel products is still poor, and the supply is expected to increase. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to enter short positions [9] Tin - Overnight, LME tin was the only base metal to close up. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July decreased by 15% month - on - month. With low overseas inventories and spot premiums, tin prices are supported. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price is oscillating. The spot market has seen continuous sharp increases. The total market inventory is basically flat, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in trader inventory. Adopt a short - term long strategy and manage risks well [11] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has cooled. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, but the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot price increase. There are opportunities to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [12] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. The policy details related to photovoltaics have not been updated, and the market sentiment has declined. During the wet season, industrial silicon has a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Iron and Steel - Night - session steel prices continued to decline. The demand in the off - season is weak. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory build - up accelerated. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improved slightly, and the inventory build - up slowed down. Pay attention to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places as the military parade approaches [14] Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron - ore futures price weakened. The global iron - ore shipment is seasonally increasing, and the domestic arrival volume has increased. The port inventory is rising. The short - term demand is supported by high hot - metal production, but there is an expectation of hot - metal production reduction as the military parade approaches. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China due to approaching major events. The seventh round of coke price increase has improved coking profits, and the daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing [16] - Coking - coal prices oscillated during the day. The production of coking - coal mines has decreased, and the spot auction market is active. The overall coking - coal inventory is decreasing, and the production - end inventory decline has narrowed [16] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - Silicon manganese prices declined during the day. Pay attention to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The demand from the hot - metal production is high. The weekly production of silicon manganese has increased, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follows coking - coal prices [17] - Silicon ferrosilicon prices declined during the day. The hot - metal production has slightly decreased. The export demand is stable, and the demand from the magnesium - metal industry has slightly declined. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon has increased significantly, and the market's spot and futures demand is good. The price follows silicon - manganese prices and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] Shipping Index (European Line) - The current 10 - contract price of 1350 points corresponds to a spot price of about $1900/FEU. The spot price is on a downward trend, and the cargo volume is seasonally decreasing. The market is expected to remain bearish [19] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak among oil futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the high - and low - sulfur spread has widened [20] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has been decreasing year - on - year due to increased deep - processing load. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to recover. The BU price is expected to oscillate weakly and is likely to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton for the October contract [21] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. The domestic import and refinery supply have increased, and the domestic - produced gas is under pressure. Pay attention to the sustainability of the current high - operating rate as the propane cost advantage is weakening [22] Urea - The news of urea export - policy adjustment has disturbed the market. The fundamental situation has changed little. The agricultural demand is weak, and the production enterprises' inventory is under general pressure. The market is affected by market sentiment and export news [23] Methanol - Methanol inventories at ports are rapidly accumulating. The import volume remains high, and the MTO device operating rate in East China is low. The short - term market trend is weak. Pay attention to macro and market - sentiment changes [24] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene declined overnight. The domestic production has slightly decreased, and the import is expected to shrink. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are improving. Consider inter - month spread trading in the third - quarter and fourth - quarter [25] Styrene - The styrene futures main - contract moving - average system is converging, and the price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides bottom support, but the single - side driving force is insufficient. The domestic styrene supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand has an incremental expectation [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - There are both start - up and shutdown plans for propylene plants. The demand from downstream products is general, and the downstream factories purchase propylene on a need - to - buy and low - price basis. The supply of polyethylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase, and the short - term downstream demand is weak [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a weak operation. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC imports has increased the export competition pressure. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has been accumulating since July. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [28] - Caustic soda prices have declined from a high level. The non - aluminum downstream demand in Shandong is good, and the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has slightly decreased due to plant maintenance. The short - term price is supported by restocking demand, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28] PX and PTA - The prices of PX and PTA declined overnight as the oil price weakened. The terminal weaving and dyeing operating rate has increased, and the polyester and PTA loads are relatively stable. The PTA near - month processing margin has declined. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the valuation is expected to increase [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price declined slightly due to the decline of peripheral chemical products. The import arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand shows signs of improvement. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the market. Consider a long - position configuration on dips and a positive inter - month spread strategy [31] - The bottle - chip processing margin is oscillating at a low level. The long - term over - capacity problem restricts the processing - margin recovery space [31] Glass - The glass price declined sharply overnight. The spot market is weak, and the price is falling. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The deep - processing operating rate in Shahe is affected by the approaching military parade. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent the price from breaking the previous low [32] Rubber - The international crude - oil price declined, and the Thai raw - material prices mostly increased. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the high - production season. The operating rates of domestic butadiene - rubber plants have declined, while the upstream butadiene plants' operating rates have increased. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased [33] Soda Ash - The soda - ash futures price declined sharply. The supply is expected to increase as Yuanxing has future production plans. The industry inventory is high at all levels. The photovoltaic market's fundamentals have improved, and the demand for heavy - soda ash has slightly increased. The long - term supply - demand situation is in surplus, and the price is under pressure at a high level [34] Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. The future two - week weather in the US soybean - growing areas may pose challenges to new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has boosted the bean - meal price. The soybean arrival volume from August to October is expected to be around 10 million tons. The domestic bean - meal market is cautiously bullish [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil declined. The domestic soybean and palm - oil prices also decreased with reduced positions. The FOB bean - palm spread has turned negative. The long - term development trend of US and Indonesian biodiesel still exists, so maintain a long - position strategy on dips, but be cautious about short - term price fluctuations [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The overseas rapeseed futures prices declined overnight, dragging down the domestic rapeseed - related products. The China - Australia rapeseed trade is a hot topic. It is expected that Australian rapeseed will arrive in China at the end of the year. The short - term rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to have a weak rebound [37] Soybean No. 1 - Overnight, the price of domestic soybeans declined. The supply has increased marginally through the auction. The demand is weak. The weather is favorable for soybean growth this week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing. Pay attention to the weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [38] Corn - As of August 19, the成交 rate of Cofco's imported - corn auctions was low. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. The domestic corn market has not seen a policy - driven structural change in supply and demand. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39] Livestock and Poultry Pigs - The short - term spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly, driving the near - month futures to rebound. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to decline. The policy may support the price when it falls to a certain level. It is advisable for the industry to conduct hedging at high prices [40] Eggs - The egg futures price is accelerating its decline, and the short - selling funds are increasing. The spot price is weak, and the industry's over - capacity problem persists. In the medium term, the egg price needs to decline further to reduce capacity. Pay attention to the risk of short - covering after the rapid price decline [41] Cotton - The price of US cotton declined slightly. The US cotton good - to - excellent rate has increased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton price declined sharply overnight. The short - term upward momentum is weak due to weak downstream orders and expected production increase. The demand may improve in August, and the old - crop inventory is expected to be tight. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Sugar - The overnight price of US sugar oscillated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. The domestic syrup import is low, and the domestic - produced sugar sales are fast with low inventory pressure. Pay attention to the weather and sugar - cane growth in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the storage merchants are actively selling. The price of early - maturing apples is high, but the quality is average. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in the output forecast. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44] Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The overseas price has increased for two consecutive months, while the domestic price has increased slightly. The domestic supply is expected to remain low as the traders are under pressure. The log inventory is low. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45] Pulp - The pulp futures price declined sharply yesterday. The port inventory in China has increased. The domestic social - retail data in July was weak, indicating weak domestic demand. The pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream demand may improve as it approaches the peak season in August. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46] Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market declined with low trading volume yesterday. The North - Exchange 50 index reached a new high. The stock - index futures prices declined, with IH leading the decline. The brokerage firms are competing for customers through commission - rate cuts. The geopolitical pressure on the market risk - preference has eased as the Russia - Ukraine situation is moving in a positive direction [47] Treasury Bonds - The treasury - bond spot and futures prices are oscillating stably. The inter - bank funds are slightly tightened, and the non - bank institutions' financing cost is rising. The short - term bond market is difficult to recover significantly. The yield - curve steepening probability is increasing [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Tariffs are a key tool in Trump's economic policy, evolving from targeted strikes to a comprehensive strategy in his second term[2] - The tariff strategy consists of four main components: reciprocal tariffs, punitive tariffs, transshipment tariffs, and industry protection barriers[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased by 16.2 percentage points, reaching 18.6%, the highest level since the Great Depression[29] Group 2: Trade Relations and Impact - The U.S. is transitioning to a more decentralized trade structure, moving away from reliance on the U.S.-China economic relationship[3] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant increase in import costs, with specific tariffs reaching as high as 50% on steel and aluminum products[21] - The U.S. government is using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, with punitive tariffs being applied to countries like Canada and Mexico, and targeting third-party nations involved in trade with adversaries[11] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Pre-tariff import surges led to a 4.67% month-on-month increase in imports in March, followed by a 1.39% year-on-year decline in June, indicating a demand pullback[29] - U.S. businesses are entering a de-inventory phase, with durable goods inventory growth slowing from 1.52% in March to 0.17% in June[29] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariff tools and potential trade negotiations post-midterm elections poses risks to global supply chains and capital markets[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, but it may not prevent a restart of rate cuts. Trump has extended the China - US tariff truce for 90 days. - Fundamentally, it's approaching the traditional peak season. Spot premiums are strong, and domestic social inventories are decreasing. "Tight mine supply + resilient demand" supports copper prices. - In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. Weak economic expectations will cap copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is limited. It will likely fluctuate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500, depending on US economic data [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure with prices falling. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the market will be slightly oversupplied. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic production capacity is stable, but demand is weak. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, demand weakness, and macro - level disturbances, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market followed the decline of aluminum prices. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is affected by the off - season. The market will remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract price ranging from 19,600 - 20,400 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and restart, but the growth rate of mine production is lower than expected. The supply of zinc concentrate is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and production has increased significantly. - Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the primary processing industries' operating rates are at seasonal lows. Low inventory provides price support. In the future, the current fundamentals are not sufficient to boost a continuous rise in zinc prices, and it will likely fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and due to the off - season in the electronics industry. - Affected by the US PPI data, the market expects a delay in interest - rate cuts, and the dollar is strengthening, suppressing tin prices. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price will likely remain high and fluctuate [11]. Nickel - The macro - level shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of nickel iron has increased but still faces over - supply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is low. - Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory has increased. The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 in the short - term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - level expectation has strengthened. - The price of nickel iron is rising steadily, and steel mills' profits have improved, increasing production motivation. However, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The price will likely fluctuate strongly in the range of 12,800 - 13,500 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong. There are supply - side uncertainties, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. - Demand is expected to increase as it approaches the peak season, but the actual demand has not been significantly boosted due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain. - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, ranging from 86,000 - 92,000. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended, and light - position long - entry on dips can be considered [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 79,280 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The premium increased by 45 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 7.74% to 1,014 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 184.22 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%. Imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. - The copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic - copper rod production increased by 1.75 percentage points to 70.61% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price fell by 0.77% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed mixed trends. - The import profit increased to 57.1 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. - The operating rates of various aluminum - processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% to 60.70 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions, with a 0.49% decrease in the southwest region. - The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with the 2511 - 2512 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% and 4.31% respectively. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 20.21%, and exports increased by 6.61%. - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 3.02%, and the weekly social inventory increased by 2.03% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell by 0.67% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 234.81 yuan/ton to - 1,791 yuan/ton. - The monthly spread of some contracts decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. In June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97%, and exports were 0.19 million tons, up 33.24%. - The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at seasonal lows, and the global inventory level was low [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.30% to 266,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 280.00% to 63.00 US dollars/ton. - The import loss increased by 7.60% to - 17,389.53 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94%. - The operating rates of refined tin and solder production decreased. The SHEF inventory decreased by 0.17% to 7,792 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.12% to 121,650 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 4.25% to - 1,766 yuan/ton. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased slightly to 926 yuan/ni point [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 10.04%. Imports increased by 116.90% in June. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 210,414 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.11% to 23,051 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coil in Wuxi rose by 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts decreased. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron remained stable [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% in July. Imports decreased by 12.48%, and exports decreased by 10.63%. - The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose by 2.30% to 84,600 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed. - The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate increased by 4.04% to 978 US dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. - In June, imports decreased by 16.31%, and exports increased by 49.84%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [17].