Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the fundamentals remain in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is at a low level with low valuation, and the export end still provides support. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Although the spot trading has slightly improved, the short - term market oscillates. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,854 yuan/ton (-88), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+48), and the South China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+38) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,770 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was -589 yuan/ton (-56), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was -741 yuan/ton (-157), and the PVC export profit was 18.0 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (-0.9), the social PVC inventory was 40.4 tons (-1.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 77.69% (+0.47%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 74.52% (+2.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.80% (+1.13%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 58.4 tons (-1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton (+19), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+44) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,496 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 704.0 yuan/ton (-97.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 72.04 yuan/ton (+42.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,330.43 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.58 tons (+0.73), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.90% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 75.96% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 60.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 79.71% (+2.54%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: In May, the scale of PVC enterprise maintenance is expected to decrease month - on - month, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so the operation is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure remains high [3]. - Demand: The terminal real estate market is still weak, the operation rate of downstream PVC product enterprises continues to decline and is at a low level in the same period. The downstream market mainly makes rigid purchases at low prices, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. Although PVC exports are doing well and the social inventory is decreasing, the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping and BIS certification policies and US tariff policies are expected to have a negative impact [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Previously shut - down and maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. Since the current comprehensive profit has not fallen into the loss range, most upstream enterprises still maintain high operation, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to ease in the short term [3]. - Demand: The price of the main downstream product, alumina, is running at a low level, some marginal alumina plants are in the loss range, and there is still great pressure on alumina production reduction, which is expected to reduce the demand for caustic soda. The non - aluminum end's replenishment rhythm has slowed down, the operation of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has declined significantly, and US tariff policies are expected to continue to impact downstream industries, so the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. Strategy - PVC is rated as neutral. The fundamentals are in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is low, the valuation is low, and the export end still provides support. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic soda is rated as neutral. Although the spot trading has slightly improved and the short - term market oscillates, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, caustic soda futures may be short - term oscillating stronger based on the holiday spot price trend and the new capacity launch of alumina. However, considering the return of 05 warehouse receipts to the spot market and the weakness of the demand side, caustic soda is still in a negative feedback pattern [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 7, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2498, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 61 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 800 yuan/ton today, up 2.56% from the previous period. After the May Day holiday, most enterprises in Shandong had good sales, low inventory, and the price showed an upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in enterprise inventory and delivery volume data, and there is a possibility of further price increases [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Demand Side**: Alumina has low profit and high raw material caustic soda inventory. Although new capacity launch increases the rigid demand, the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda is weak. Non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and some industries such as viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and pulp and paper industries are greatly affected by the trade war, with obvious declines in production. Exports can support caustic soda, but the purchasing of foreign merchants is cautious due to the trade war [3] - **Supply Side**: There will still be new maintenance in May. Since the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturer's load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply. Although in the first quarter, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream was limited due to the high profit of caustic soda, if caustic soda and liquid chlorine decline, marginal device supply will be affected by profit [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery with significant structural differentiation among sub-industries. The average revenue growth for listed companies in the basic chemical sector was 1.07% and 4.29% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, while net profit growth was -9.3% and 11.9% [4][21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the chemical industry fell by 2.8% year-on-year in March 2025, with specific declines in chemical raw materials and products, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products [4][9] - The highest net profit growth in Q1 2025 was observed in the following sub-industries: Chlor-alkali (129.52%), Fluorine chemicals (91.39%), Food and feed additives (68.1%), Other chemical raw materials (66.78%), and Pesticides (62.22%) [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The chemical industry is under pressure from overcapacity, with a weak recovery in demand. The performance of various sub-industries is not synchronized, leading to significant structural differentiation [4][82] - The average profit margin in March 2025 dropped to 4.45%, marking a historical low [4][18] 2. Sub-Industry Insights 2.1 Chlor-alkali - The chlor-alkali sector saw a significant increase in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by improved real estate sales and stable automotive production. However, prices have started to decline since April [24][34] 2.2 Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and steady demand from the automotive and home air conditioning sectors. The average price for refrigerants rose by 58.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [35][41] 2.3 Food and Feed Additives - The demand for food and feed additives remains stable, with a low cost share in downstream products. The market for amino acids and vitamins has seen price increases, with significant growth in net profits for leading companies [44][50] 2.4 Other Chemical Raw Materials - A supply contraction has led to structural price increases for certain chemical raw materials, such as acrylic acid and polyols, with notable profit improvements for companies in this sector [60][64] 2.5 Pesticides - The pesticide industry is facing overcapacity, but there is potential for price increases in certain small varieties due to supply constraints and inventory depletion in overseas markets [67][79] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from domestic demand, such as phosphate and potassium fertilizer leaders, as well as firms in the vitamin and AI materials sectors. The impact of tariffs on exports is also highlighted as a factor to consider [83]

--------高浓度碱大幅度下跌后企稳回升 烧碱期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月6日 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应产量 | | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.9%，环比+1.8%。西北、华中、华东、华南、西南新增重启装置，带动负 | | | | 荷不同程度提升，周内华北有装置减产导致负荷下滑。山东产能利用率呈现上升+0.1%至91.1%。本周来看，华北、华南、西南均有 | | | | 装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率涨至85%左右，周产量82万吨左 ...

Group 1: Travel and Tourism - The average daily passenger volume during the first three days of the May Day holiday in 2025 reached 305 million, a 5.4% increase from 2024's 289 million[6] - Excluding private car usage, the average daily passenger volume was 60.39 million, up 7.6% from 2024[6] - International flight numbers increased by 19.6% year-on-year, significantly outpacing domestic flight growth of 5.4%[6] Group 2: Consumer Spending - The average daily box office revenue during the May Day holiday was 170 million yuan, down from 350 million yuan in 2024, representing 39% of the 2019 level[14] - The average number of moviegoers was 4.35 million, compared to 8.78 million in 2024, which is 43% of the 2019 level[14] - Despite a decline in box office revenue, the drop in attendance was greater than the drop in total revenue, indicating some price recovery[14] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The April production synchronization index (HTPI) was 4.34%, down from 4.91% in March[20] - The April consumption synchronization index (HTCI) was 3.81%, slightly down from 3.85% in March[20] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of recovery, with cumulative issuance of special bonds reaching 1.2721 trillion yuan as of May 4[32]

Core Viewpoint - As of April 30, 2025, the caustic soda futures market shows a slight upward trend, with the main contract closing at 2479 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.64% [1] Market Performance - The caustic soda futures opened at 2425 CNY/ton, peaked at 2481 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2403 CNY/ton during the week [1] - The trading volume decreased by 31,192 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was 83.9%, up by 1.8% from the previous week [1] - New production facilities were restarted in regions including Northwest, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest, contributing to varying degrees of load increase [1] - A reduction in production was noted in North China, leading to a decline in load [1] Pricing Trends - On April 30, liquid chlorine prices in some areas of Shandong dropped by 100-150 CNY, while prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - The procurement price for caustic soda in major alumina plants in Shanxi for May remained stable compared to April, with the delivered price for 50% ion membrane liquid caustic soda around 2840-2940 CNY/ton [1] Future Market Outlook - Current caustic soda production is at a high level year-on-year, and the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable, with manufacturers showing low willingness to conduct maintenance [1] - The spot market for caustic soda remains under pressure, with a recommendation for traders to take profits on short positions before the holiday and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - One德期货 suggests that the comprehensive profit margins are slightly below neutral, with significant fluctuations in liquid chlorine prices and a downward trend in liquid caustic soda prices [1] - Demand from textile printing and dyeing sectors is weak, while recovery in other demand areas remains slow [1] - Tariffs have minimal direct impact on caustic soda, but there are expectations of weakened terminal demand [1]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公司代码：601678 公司简称：滨化股份 第一节 重要提示 1、本年度报告摘要来自年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划，投 资者应当到www.sse.com.cn网站仔细阅读年度报告全文。 2、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整 性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 3、公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 4、天职国际会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）为本公司出具了标准无保留意见的审计报告。 5、董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 2024年度利润分配预案为：以实施权益分派股权登记日登记的总股本，扣除公司回购专用账户所持股份 为基数分配利润，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.30元（含税）。实际派发现金红利总额将根据股权 登记日可参与利润分配的股份数量确定。如在董事会审议通过本次利润分配方案之日起至实施权益分派 股权登记日期间，因可转债转股/回购股份/股权激励授予股份回购注销/重大资产重组股份回购注销等致 使公司总股本发生变动的，公司拟维 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月30日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 4月29日 7322 | 4月28日 7353 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 -0.42% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 L2509 收盘价 | 7122 | 7164 | -31 -42 | -0.59% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7170 | 7195 | -25 | -0.35% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7092 | 7112 | -20 | -0.28% | | | L2505-2509 | 200 | 189 | 11 | 5.82% | | | PP2505-2509 | 78 | 83 | -5 | -6.02% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7230 | 7250 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7350 | -50 | -0.68% | | | 华北 L05基差 | 200 | ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-29 供需驱动不足，烧碱延续弱势整理 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4989元/吨（+28）；华东基差-159元/吨（-8）;华南基差-139元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-533元/吨（+27）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-584元/吨（-18）；PVC出口利润13.7美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.0万吨（+0.9）；PVC社会库存42.1万吨（-2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.22%（-0.78%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.67%（+4.67%）；PVC开工率75.67%（+0.67%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量60.2万吨（+3.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2441元/吨（+2）；山东32%液碱基差-4元/吨（-96）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东 ...