证券研究报告 育儿补贴政策催化，关注乳品估值修复 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 17 日 ——食品饮料行业周报 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 周报》2025.03.05 《促消费政策积极，关注需求修复边际 改善—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.17 《春节旺季消费边际改善，白酒动销符 合预期—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.11 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 2025.3.3-2025.3.14 申万食品饮料板块上涨 6.98%，跑赢上证指数 4.01pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第六位，涨幅居前。"两会" 政府工作报告提出，2025 年政府工作任务要大力提振消费，全方位 扩大国内需求。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济 增长的主动力和稳定锚。3 月 17 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地区各部门认真贯彻落实。 我们认为在扩大内需，提振消费的积极政策导向下，食品饮料板块有 望迎来好转，我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 分析师：王芳 白酒：2025.3.3-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3,413.98 points, marking a year-to-date increase of 1.86% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 55.25 points, or 1.65%, with a trading volume of 452.5 billion [2]. - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 221.31 points, or 2.06%, with a trading volume of 616.2 billion [2]. - The North Star 50 Index saw a rise of 33.84 points, or 2.48%, with a trading volume of 29.7 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 34.93% [2]. Group 2: Financial Policies and Support - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed an action plan with 16 specific measures to enhance financial services for "hard technology" enterprises, focusing on supporting key technological breakthroughs [3]. - The implementation opinions aim to optimize financial services for technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle, promoting green, inclusive, pension, and digital finance reforms [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will formulate detailed plans to ensure the effective implementation of these policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and support the technology and green sectors [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Strength - The consumer sector is showing strong performance, particularly in soft drinks, alcohol, and food industries, with the CSI Food and Beverage Index rising over 4% [6]. - Major stocks in the beverage sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, have seen significant increases, with Luzhou Laojiao rising over 6% [6]. - The optimism surrounding consumer recovery is supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector as the economy improves [7]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Citigroup has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing the strength of the Chinese technology sector and government support, despite the recent market rally [9]. - The report indicates that even after the market's rise, Chinese stocks remain attractive due to low valuations and strong government backing for the technology industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation in line with the benchmark index [10]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with operating income expected to rise from 15,838.85 million in 2024 to 30,579.52 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.10% [5]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 3,326.43 million in 2024 to 6,665.50 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, projected to remain around 45.80% from 2026 to 2027, suggesting effective cost management [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 43.27% in 2024 to 27.50% in 2027, reflecting a potential increase in equity base due to retained earnings [5]. Financial Summary Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 22,676.30 million in 2024 to 47,275.73 million by 2027, indicating robust asset accumulation [4]. - Current liabilities are expected to increase from 14,845.04 million in 2024 to 22,893.14 million in 2027, which may impact liquidity ratios [4]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to decrease from 5,789.41 million in 2024 to 4,634.76 million in 2025, before recovering to 8,473.49 million by 2027 [4]. - The net cash increase is projected to rise significantly from 453.09 million in 2024 to 7,652.03 million in 2027, indicating improved cash management [4]. Income Statement - The operating profit is expected to grow from 4,144.77 million in 2024 to 8,229.02 million in 2027, showcasing strong operational efficiency [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 6.40 in 2024 to 12.82 in 2027, reflecting the company's profitability growth [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 17.86 in 2027, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation over time [5]. - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decline from 66.08% in 2024 to 48.72% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 260 yuan [9][34]. Core Views - The company has shown rapid national expansion and is initiating an international strategy, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024 [2][9]. - The company achieved total revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [2][9]. - The report highlights strong cash flow and a substantial increase in sales collections, indicating robust demand and inventory replenishment [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 reached 15.839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 40.63% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.327 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.09% [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of approximately 2.5 yuan per share, with a total payout of around 2.3 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of about 69% [2][9]. Regional Performance Summary - Revenue from Guangdong reached 4.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, while other regions showed even higher growth rates [9][13]. - The company has expanded its online presence significantly, with a 117% year-on-year increase in online sales [9][10]. - The report notes that the company has increased its distribution network from 3.4 million to nearly 4 million outlets [9][10]. Product Performance Summary - Revenue from energy drinks reached 13.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, while electrolyte drinks saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% [9][10]. - The company has successfully launched new products, contributing to an increase in revenue share from its new offerings [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates, with projected revenues of 20.149 billion yuan in 2025 and 24.451 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.2% and 21.3% respectively [10][21]. - The report anticipates continued expansion in both domestic and international markets, with plans for an H-share issuance to support its international strategy [9][10].

昨天晚上半开玩笑的说，拼多多的下跌可能是因为黄老板不愿意当首富，结果今天一开盘就看见农夫山泉暴跌12%，当时我忍不住感慨，这赛道也要竞争 了吗。 话说回来中国这些年的首富基本上都有点问题，早先的黄光裕坐过牢，许家印现在还在里面，王健林和马云各有各的麻烦，然后就是卖水的钟睒睒，莫名 其妙被网暴了半年。 这些人当首富的时候中国的经济还在繁荣上行，老百姓日子过的不错也就把富豪榜当个谈资。现在经济遭遇减速，老百姓生活压力明显上升，这个时候谁 还当出头鸟就很容易架起来烤，首富头衔纯粹烫手山芋，有百害而无一利。 以上是聊闲篇的，农夫山泉的暴跌当然不是钟老板故意砸的，而是前一晚公布的财报不理想，公司最最最最核心产品包装饮用水上半年下滑18%，而这个 产品在1、2月的时候还同比增长了19%，转折点发生在2月25日宗庆后去世，之后农夫山泉就陷入了漫长的网暴，饮用水的销售也遭遇了重大挫折。 首先是火了好几天的黑悟空概念，我游戏还没通关呢，相关概念股就已经凉了，华谊兄弟一个星期从2.96跌到1.96，浙报传媒五个交易日从10.5跌到7.8。 当时还有很多人说山西旅游会被带火，但是山西高速最近3个交易日从6.2跌到4.4。 前晚广泛 ...