Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Zai Lab (09688) by acquiring 1,920,096 shares at a price of HKD 13.3426 per share, totaling approximately HKD 25.6191 million, raising its ownership to about 56,470,300 shares, which represents 5.04% of the company [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's recent acquisition indicates a positive outlook on Zai Lab's potential growth and market position [1] - The total investment made by Morgan Stanley in this transaction is approximately HKD 25.6191 million [1] - Following the purchase, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Zai Lab is now approximately 56,470,300 shares [1] Group 2 - The per-share purchase price of HKD 13.3426 reflects the current valuation of Zai Lab in the market [1] - The increase in ownership percentage to 5.04% may influence market perception and investor confidence in Zai Lab [1] - This transaction highlights the ongoing interest from institutional investors in Zai Lab's stock [1]

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Feng Shui guide by Citic Securities indicates a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Index in the Year of the Fire Horse, suggesting a stable upward trend despite potential initial declines in early 2024 [1]. Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index is expected to experience stable growth, having shown positive performance in three out of the last four Horse years [1]. - A forecasted initial decline is anticipated at the beginning of the year, with a gradual recovery expected after April [1]. - The second half of the year is predicted to exhibit a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern, with peak performance expected between November and early December, followed by a slight softening before a year-end rebound [1]. Sector Analysis - Industries associated with Wood, such as furniture, herbal products, and pharmaceuticals, are expected to thrive in the Year of the Horse [1]. - Fire-related sectors, including telecommunications and energy, are also anticipated to benefit from favorable conditions [1]. - The financial products sector, categorized under Metal, is recommended for focused attention throughout the year [1]. - The real estate sector, associated with Earth, is expected to struggle to gain momentum [1]. - The Water element is predicted to be the weakest, leading to stagnation in the shipping industry and challenges for the tourism sector [1].

Core Insights - Geoeconomics has evolved from an academic concept to a significant topic in global economics and policy, shifting from cooperation in globalization to competition driven by economic means [2] - The analysis by CICC Research Institute and CICC Research Department explores the implications of geoeconomic competition on macroeconomic policies and frameworks [2] Group 1: Historical Context and Policy Shifts - Since the late 1970s, economic liberalism, centered around neoclassical economics, has dominated, leading to globalization and financialization [3] - The macroeconomic policy framework has focused on controlling inflation, with a combination of inflation targeting, floating exchange rates, and trade and financial liberalization [4] - The rise of financial crises and increasing wealth disparity have prompted reflections on neoclassical economics, leading to a shift towards protectionism and increased financial regulation post-2008 financial crisis [5] Group 2: Geoeconomic Competition and Macroeconomic Policy - Geoeconomic competition emphasizes the importance of economies of scale in international trade and global supply chains, challenging traditional trade theories [6] - Technological advancements have become a core area of competition among nations, necessitating increased government involvement in research and development [7] - The non-neutrality of money may manifest in new forms, affecting economic structures and necessitating responses to supply chain risks and trade protection measures [8] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Global Trade Dynamics - The increase in supply constraints has implications for long-term economic growth, with economies of scale being a key driver of global trade expansion [9] - Geoeconomic competition has led to the use of trade protectionism and technology export restrictions, impacting the efficiency of economies of scale [10] - The competition between the U.S. and China highlights the significance of economic scale, with China as a trade surplus nation and the U.S. focusing on enhancing its manufacturing capacity [11] Group 4: Technological and Economic Shifts - The transition to green energy and the rise of the digital economy are significant trends that promote economies of scale, contrasting with the constraints imposed by geoeconomic competition [12] - The dynamics of technological advancement and innovation are critical in understanding the evolving landscape of geoeconomic competition [13] Group 5: Geoeconomic and Technological Interplay - The emergence of "geoeconomic technology" reflects the growing importance of technology in geoeconomic competition, with nations vying for dominance in strategic technologies [14] - The U.S. and China are engaged in intense competition over high-tech resources, impacting global supply chains and economic structures [15] Group 6: Fiscal Policy and Financialization - The trend of de-financialization is evident in the increasing number of financial sanctions and the rising role of fiscal policy in the global economy [18] - U.S. fiscal deficits have risen significantly, impacting monetary supply and economic demand, with implications for inflation and trade balances [19][20] - The increase in defense spending among nations reflects a shift in fiscal priorities, influencing demand without directly enhancing supply capabilities [21] Group 7: Economic Scale and Global Competition - The competition between large economies emphasizes the importance of absolute economic scale, with smaller economies facing challenges in achieving economies of scale [23] - The future of geoeconomic competition will be primarily centered around the U.S. and China, with implications for manufacturing, digital economy, and monetary finance [24] - China's manufacturing sector benefits from economies of scale, while the U.S. leverages its consumer market to influence global trade dynamics [25] Group 8: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The interplay between supply capabilities and demand dynamics is crucial for understanding the ongoing geoeconomic competition, with both nations needing to address structural weaknesses [27] - Fiscal expansion is necessary for maintaining economic stability and supporting the transition to new growth drivers in the face of geoeconomic challenges [28]

受风险偏好回落、美元指数走软等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格持续反弹，金价3日创下2009年以来 最大单日涨幅。在随后的隔夜交易中，金银期货价格继续反弹，金价重回每盎司5000美元上方。 3日，纽约商品交易所4月黄金期价盘中涨幅超过7%；3月白银期价重新站上每盎司80美元，盘中涨幅超 过15%。 分析人士认为，金银价格反弹表明此前大幅回调并非意味着市场基本面发生转变。 德意志银行金属研究主管迈克尔·薛表示，贵金属投资者需对市场波动保持谨慎，但黄金投资基本面未 变，金价仍有望在年底前达到每盎司6000美元。 ▌本文来源：央视新闻微信公众号（ID：cctvnewscenter） 监制/王元 主编/王瑄 瑞讯银行市场分析师伊佩克·奥兹卡德斯卡娅说，自去年以来支撑金价的因素依然稳固，全球贸易和地 缘政治不确定性持续存在，美国、日本、欧洲的债务状况越发不可持续，市场对美元和其他主要货币以 及主权债券的需求仍然脆弱。这些基本因素将支撑贵金属价格上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complex dynamics of China's central government, emphasizing the interplay between various departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in macroeconomic policy-making [2][3][22] - It highlights the NDRC's dual powers of planning and approval, which are crucial for project legitimacy and funding, making it a key player in economic development [8][11][12] - The MOF's role as the budgetary authority is underscored, detailing its responsibilities in managing fiscal balance and debt issuance, which are critical during economic stimulus discussions [15][16][18] Group 2 - The article outlines the decision-making process within the central government, detailing the five critical stages from policy initiation to final approval, emphasizing the importance of inter-departmental negotiations [26][30][34] - It introduces the new mechanism of consistency evaluation for macroeconomic policies, aimed at preventing conflicting policies that could harm economic stability [40][41][70] - The central government's economic work meeting emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to address current economic challenges, including maintaining a reasonable fiscal deficit and supporting domestic demand [69][90]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 港股 2 月投资策略 优于大市 预计沃什的缩表交易不会持续，继续看好春季行情 3、消费领域：消费板块估值处于过去十年 1%分位数，市场预期过低且 后续有持续的改善空间，该板块的胜在稳健，而且走势相对独立，受国 际局势动荡影响较小； 4、能源：大宗商品的涨价将从贵金属、金属，逐步蔓延到能源、航运 等领域，也值得关注，尤其是能源资产价格尚处在低位，并且可以对冲 地缘局势的不确定性； 5、创新药：创新药业绩平稳，值得继续持有，后续一旦出现新 BD 项目 的释放，板块还有修复空间。 风险提示：地缘政治的不确定性，美国关税政策的不确定性，海外降息 幅度的不确定性，部分行业竞争格局的不确定性。 美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易。当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致 时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。我们认为 当下为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且 上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更 多信息要到 5 月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 今年 1 月份，美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，因此我们认为将美元指数的 反弹看 ...

2月4日隔夜，全球市场出现多重异动，美股收跌，科技股遭遇集中抛售，金银价格出现反弹，美伊相关 局势推动国际油价上行，美国总统特朗普公开表示正与伊朗进行谈判。 美股市场方面，三大指数集体收跌，大型科技股遭遇抛售，投资者转而布局与经济复苏更广泛相关的股 票品类。国际贵金属市场出现反弹，黄金、白银价格出现回升。受美伊相关局势影响，国际油价出现上 行波动。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 当地时间2月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署政府拨款法案时对外透露，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续， 伊朗方面有意愿采取行动。特朗普称，双方"正在进行谈判"，他希望能够通过对话达成某种结果，暂不 对外透露会谈具体地点，同时提及"与伊朗的会晤不止一次"。特朗普表示，相关方曾有机会达成协议但 未能成功，他不希望再次出现类似去年对伊实施"午夜之锤"军事行动的情况。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃3日同步对外回应，称"谈判计划已制定，预计将在未来几天举行。目前正在进 行磋商以确定谈判地点，一旦确定，我们将立即公布"。巴加埃同时透露，土耳其、阿曼以及该地区其 他一些 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that after significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the market is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and the strong dollar, which may lead to a bearish outlook for gold prices in the short term [11][12][10] - The report suggests that high-risk investors with insufficient positions may consider participating in gold and silver trading to adjust their holdings, while long-term asset allocation should reduce gold's proportion due to uncertainties surrounding inflation control and strong dollar policies [11][12][10] Group 2: Market Performance in January - In January, precious metals continued to show strong performance, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX silver rising by 131.61% and COMEX gold increasing by 26.44% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026 [13][14] - The report highlights a structural recovery in the domestic stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% in January, while the performance of financial and consumer sectors was relatively weak [15][19] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The report notes that the commodity market is characterized by increased geopolitical disturbances and rising risk premiums for physical assets, with industrial metals supported by recovering manufacturing activity and structural demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [29][30] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, with expectations of oversupply in the medium term as global supply is projected to increase significantly [35][36] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9% due to policy support and market expectations [28][21] - The report indicates that the defensive attributes of the bond market have weakened, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards equities and commodities amid rising risk appetite [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for 2026 is shaped by China's "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing high-quality development and strategic investment opportunities in various sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Macro Trends - The importance of a broad perspective in investment is highlighted, focusing on understanding macro trends and industry dynamics [2][19]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a guiding framework for investment, emphasizing high-quality development and the need for innovative production capabilities [19][20]. - The ongoing global industrial transformation, driven by AI and technological advancements, presents significant investment opportunities in traditional and emerging industries [20][21]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with Chinese companies expected to see a doubling of license-out revenues to $121.6 billion by 2025 [21][22]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively, with major investment banks recognizing its potential as a hub for leading companies in technology and smart driving [23][24]. - The AI sector is seen as a transformative force, with applications in various industries expected to drive significant investment opportunities [24][25]. Group 3: Renewable Energy and New Materials - The renewable energy sector is anticipated to continue its upward trend, with lithium battery technology expected to see significant advancements [25][26]. - The chemical industry is also expected to recover, driven by long-term demand growth and supply-side reforms [25][26]. Group 4: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The financial and real estate sectors are showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions indicating positive market sentiment [26][27]. - Investment opportunities in the insurance sector are expected to improve, alongside a focus on banks and brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities [26][27]. Group 5: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The consumer sector is undergoing a transformation, with new trends emerging in smart home products and lifestyle consumption, driven by younger generations [28][29]. - The aging population is creating new market opportunities in tourism, healthcare, and wellness sectors [28][29]. Group 6: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The emphasis on scientific long-termism in wealth management highlights the importance of strategic asset allocation for sustainable growth [29][30]. - The focus on retirement planning underscores the need for consistent investment strategies that adapt to changing market conditions [30][31].