据北京日报报道，当地时间12月18日，美国财政部披露的最新国际资本流动报告，给本就动荡的全球金 融市场投下了一颗重磅炸弹。数据清晰显示，2025年10月中国大陆净卖出美债118亿美元，持仓规模直 接跌破7000亿美元关口，降至6887亿美元，这一数字创下2008年以来的最低纪录。更值得关注的是，不 只是中国在减持，美国传统盟友加拿大的动作更显决绝，当月狂抛567亿美元美债，减持规模超过其持 仓总额的10%，排名直接被比利时超越。就在全球主要经济体纷纷用脚投票之际，日本、英国、法国、 新加坡四个国家站了出来，选择逆势增持美债，成为美债市场的"接盘者"。这场看似简单的资产调整背 后，藏着的是全球地缘政治与经济格局的深层博弈，而特斯拉创始人马斯克早已有言在先：美国政府基 本没救了。 先把视线拉回美债市场的核心数据上。中国的118亿美元减持，单看数字或许不算惊人，但放在长期趋 势里就一目了然。自2022年中国持有美债规模首次低于1万亿美元基准线后，下行趋势就从未逆转。在 全球地缘局势持续动荡、金融制裁成为部分国家惯用手段的当下，这种减持绝非临时起意，而是外汇储 备多元化布局的必然选择，本质上是对美元资产风险的主动对冲 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the context of major power competition, particularly against the US and EU [8][9] - China's leading position in key metals is attributed to its resource advantages and a complete industrial system, which is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [8] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with less likelihood of a one-sided decline in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, suggesting a need for a more flexible trading strategy [10] - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy announcements [10] Industry Analysis Minshi Group (敏实集团) - Minshi Group is a leading global supplier of automotive exterior and structural parts, benefiting from the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption in Europe, particularly in the battery box business [22][24] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics and liquid cooling for servers, which are expected to open new growth opportunities [22][24] - Profit forecasts for Minshi Group indicate net profits of 2.753 billion, 3.257 billion, and 3.878 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.76, and 3.29 yuan, and P/E ratios of 11.91, 10.07, and 8.46 respectively [22] Zhongwei Company (中微公司) - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire Hangzhou Zhonggui to enhance its capabilities in CMP equipment, which is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [7] - The acquisition aims to strengthen Zhongwei's competitiveness in complete process solutions, complementing its existing dry process equipment [7] - Profit forecasts for Zhongwei Company remain at 2.44 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with dynamic P/E ratios of 70, 50, and 38 respectively [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced moderate fluctuations last week, with Wind All A index down by 0.15% and an average daily trading volume of 1.76 trillion yuan [3] - The implied volatility for options slightly increased, with the 1000 IV at 18.56% and 300 IV at 16.03% [3] - The financing balance decreased by 7.6 billion yuan to 2.475 trillion yuan, indicating a slight contraction in market liquidity [3] Stock Index Analysis - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating within the range established since October, with limited risk of a significant downturn [3] - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth for the CSI 1000 in Q3 was approximately 2.6%, providing substantial support for its current valuation [3] - Conditions for a spring rally are not currently prominent, suggesting that the upcoming market movements may not be as vigorous as in previous years [3] Sector Performance - The market is increasingly focused on sectors with performance certainty, particularly in technology [4] - Key themes include high ROE, strong year-on-year revenue growth, and robust operating cash flow [4] - Sectors such as network connection, service robots, industrial internet services, consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, gold, tungsten, and PCB are expected to have strong performance certainty by 2026 [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the central bank restarting 14-day reverse repos, indicating a stabilizing attitude towards liquidity [5][18] - As of December 19, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.38%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.23% respectively, reflecting slight decreases from the previous week [5][18] - The net issuance of government bonds was negative at -192 billion yuan, with a net issuance of local bonds at 281 billion yuan [7][20] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference set a positive tone for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [21] - The conference highlighted the importance of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment, with plans to increase central budget investments [22] - Inflation is expected to gradually recover, supported by policies aimed at maintaining liquidity and promoting consumption [22] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices rose by 0.97% to $4341.058 per ounce, while silver surged by 8.28% to $67.049 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [23] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to approximately 64.7, indicating a strong performance in precious metals [23] - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding precious metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent policy decision has led to a significant increase in bond yields, marking the highest levels for Japanese government bonds in decades [1] Group 1: Bond Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 2-year government bonds has risen to 1.105%, the highest level since 1997 [1] - The yield on 5-year government bonds has reached its highest point since 2008 [1]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on Bond YTM - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture the trend patterns of interest rates, depicting the support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides multi-cycle composite timing views based on the shape breakthrough situations of interest rate trends in different investment cycles[10][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Source**: 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data. - **Signal Calculation**: - Long cycle: monthly frequency - Medium cycle: bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: weekly frequency - **Signal Interpretation**: - 5-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: neutral oscillation[10][12]. - 10-year bond YTM: Long cycle downward breakthrough, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle downward breakthrough. Final signal: bullish[13][15]. - 30-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle downward breakthrough, short cycle downward breakthrough. Final signal: bullish[16][17]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the trend patterns of interest rates and provides clear timing signals based on multi-cycle analysis. Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 5-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 2.15% since the end of 2024[4][22]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.73%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 3.64[4]. - **Excess Return**: 0.8% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4]. 2. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 10-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 2.47% since the end of 2024[4][25]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.98%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 4.28[4]. - **Excess Return**: 1.32% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4]. 3. Multi-Cycle Timing Model Based on 30-Year Bond YTM - **Annualized Return**: 3.07% since the end of 2024[4][30]. - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.72%[4]. - **Return-Drawdown Ratio**: 3.35[4]. - **Excess Return**: 2.78% relative to the performance benchmark[4]. - **Probability of Positive Annual Absolute Return**: Close to 100% since 2008[4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks and rose, with an increase in valuation [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.42%; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.29%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.77 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 192.56 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 119.54 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.14 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 55.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58pct; the largest change occurred in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 9.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5pct; there was 1 bond with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 131.51 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14pct; the overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10pct [2]. Industry Performance - On December 19, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising. In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three industries in terms of decline were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 23 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.53% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.49%, the technology sector increased by 0.21%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.46%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.5pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased by 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.65% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.69%, the technology sector increased by 0.99%, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.19%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.47% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.1pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.75pct, the technology sector increased by 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79pct [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the entire curve of US Treasury yields declined slightly by 3 - 5bp. Although inflation and employment data are favorable for the bond market, the decline in interest rates is not significant. This is because the market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. The "limited hawkish" stance of the Bank of Japan is due to the need to balance multiple pressures. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - The US employment situation shows that the labor market has not changed significantly, with employers reluctant to increase recruitment significantly but not initiating large - scale layoffs. The economic growth momentum is weakening, and inflation is showing a downward trend [21][22][24]. - In the asset market, German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose; the global equity market was highly differentiated; black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure; most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported [26][27][28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - **Yield Changes**: From December 12 to December 19, 2025, the yields of 1 - month, 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries decreased by 5bp, 3bp, 4bp, 5bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 3.71%, 3.51%, 3.48%, 3.70%, 4.16%, and 4.82% [2][11]. - **Reasons for the Limited Decline**: The market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - **Japanese Interest - Rate Hike Impact**: The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - **Auction Results**: On December 17, the auction of 20 - year US Treasuries was robust, with a winning bid rate of 4.798%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.67 times (higher than the previous value of 2.41 times), and a tail spread of - 2.500 (higher than the previous value of - 0.200) [17]. 3.2 US Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: In November, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of - 105,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the forecast of 4.5% and the previous value of 4.4%. The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the forecast of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 13 decreased to 224,000 [21]. - **Business Index**: In December, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.8, lower than the forecast of 52.0 and the previous value of 52.2; the service PMI was 52.9, lower than the forecast of 54.0 and the previous value of 54.1, hitting a six - month low. The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 10.2, lower than the forecast of 2.5 and the previous value of - 1.7 [4][22][24]. - **Inflation**: In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the forecast of 3.1%. Some officials believe that there is a large space for the Fed to cut interest rates [4][22][24]. - **Housing Market**: In November, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US was 4.13 million units, with a median price of $409,200, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The housing market showed a significant differentiation, with low - priced housing sales under pressure and the high - end market relatively strong [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Review - **Bonds**: German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose. The yields of German 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1bp, 3bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively. The yields of Japanese 1 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds increased by 1.4bp, 0.7bp, 1.6bp, 2.4bp, and 1.6bp respectively [26]. - **Equities**: The global market was highly differentiated. The Vietnam VN30, UK FTSE 100, and France CAC40 rose by 3.55%, 2.57%, and 1.03% respectively, while the South Korea Composite Index, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 3.52%, 2.61%, and 1.10% respectively [27]. - **Commodities**: Black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure. The coke index, coking coal index, and soda ash index rose by 9.82%, 9.11%, and 4.53% respectively, while CBOT wheat, CBOT soybeans, and Bitcoin fell by 3.68%, 2.55%, and 2.37% respectively [28]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported. The ruble rose by 0.35%, while the South Korean won, euro, and British pound fell by 0.62%, 0.37%, and 0.33% respectively [29]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the latest target - rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin this week, the auction panel of US Treasuries, and the yield curves of US Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and German bonds, etc., to track the market situation [13][14][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since November, the "stock - bond double - fall" and "stock - bond double - rise" phenomena have frequently occurred, and the yield curve has steepened. The traditional stock - bond seesaw has failed periodically due to changes in loose expectations and institutional behavior [1][9]. - The market's loose expectations have eased, and the growth rate of broad liquidity has declined. The market's expectation of further monetary policy easing next year is not strong. Institutions are taking profits on equity floating gains at the end of the year, and the bond market's ability to hedge equity fluctuations is poor [1][2][9]. - Fundamentally, the economic growth momentum in November was still weak, with some improvement in external demand and inflation but continued drag from domestic demand. However, the bond market was insensitive to fundamental positives. The bond market is expected to remain in an oscillating range, and it is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy at the end of the year [2][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, bond market sentiment was volatile, with institutional behavior dominating the market. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp and 2bp respectively. The bond market is expected to be affected by the unimplemented public fund fee reform and the performance of the equity market, maintaining an oscillating range [8][10]. II. Bond Market Review 2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and funding rates remained stable at a low level. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 190 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity volume is less than the previous week [12][14]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first rose and then fell. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds decreased, and most key - term Treasury bond spreads widened. The spread between 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 39bp, at a high historical percentile [22]. 2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to rise to 108.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 123.3%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased slightly, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [33]. 2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased by 383.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all saw a decline in net financing. Next week, a 7Y Treasury bond will be newly issued, and the planned issuance scale of local government bonds will decrease [45][49]. III. Economic Data - In November, industrial growth slowed slightly, and investment and consumption demand weakened. Since December, second - hand housing transactions and automobile consumption have recovered. Industrial production performance remains divided [56]. IV. Overseas Bond Markets - US inflation data was unexpectedly lower than expected, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in March next year. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. US bonds rose, and the Japanese bond market fell [64][65]. V. Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted slightly this week. The Nanhua Rebar Index and Shanghai gold rose, while the Nanhua Crude Oil Index weakened. The performance of major asset classes was: rebar > Shanghai gold > convertible bonds > US dollar > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > live pigs > CSI 300 > CSI 1000 > Shanghai copper > crude oil [69]. VI. Policy Review - Multiple policies were introduced this week, including the State Council's deployment of implementing the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's bond repurchase business to overseas institutional investors, the public consultation on the "Insurance Company Asset - Liability Management Measures", the proposal of ideas for expanding effective investment in the "14th Five - Year Plan", and the deployment of the CSRC and Shenzhen Financial Office [72][74][75].