1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to positive supply - demand reports and strong exports. Eggs are under pressure from high supply. Pork prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance. Red dates are rising on production reduction expectations and holiday stocking. Other products like soybean oil, sugar, corn, etc. also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is strongly supported by positive monthly supply - demand reports from Malaysia and strong early - August exports, with a bullish outlook [1]. - Eggs have dropped significantly because of high laying - hen inventory, abundant supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market [1]. - Red dates continue to rise due to expected production reduction in the new season and the start of the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [1]. - Pork prices have fallen after a rise because of accelerated supply from farmers and insufficient consumer demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract has reached a new high this year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased 7.09% to 181 million tons, exports rose 3.82% to 131 million tons, and inventory increased 4.02% to 211 million tons. August 1 - 10 exports increased 23.3% and 24% compared to the previous period. The market expects increased demand from India before the October Diwali [2]. - Technically, the contract is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8940 and resistance at 9250 [4]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2510 contract has fallen sharply. In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Cold - stored eggs are impacting the market [5]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3160 and resistance at 3254 [5]. 3.2.3 Pork - The main 2511 contract first rose and then fell. Supply pressure remains high, with low demand in summer, increased fattening costs, and some pig diseases. Demand is limited, especially in the southern regions [7]. - Technically, the upward trend remains. The strategy is to hold a long position, with support at 14060 and resistance at 14325 [7]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise. New - season production is expected to be 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period has started [9]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11400 and resistance at 11900 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise, driven by the strength of palm oil. Uncertain US soybean purchases, soybean oil exports, and expected inventory reduction during the autumn and holidays support the price [11]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8288 and resistance at 8466 [11]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2509 contract has continued to decline. Imported sugar is expected to increase, and domestic sugar de - stocking may slow down. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply [13]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5550 and resistance at 5599 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2509 contract is in a low - level oscillation. Continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, and low demand from downstream enterprises are pressuring the price. New - season corn has a good harvest outlook [15]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 2245 and resistance at 2268 [15]. 3.2.8 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract has oscillated downward. Trump's call for China to buy more US soybeans may change the import situation. In July, domestic oil mills had a high operating rate, increasing soybean meal output and inventory [19]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3034 and resistance at 3107 [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract has oscillated upward. Xinjiang cotton has a good growth outlook, but current commercial inventory is low, and there are expectations of supply shortage before new - cotton listing. The textile industry is in a low season [20]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and open light long positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [22]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract has continued to rise. As of August 6, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons and decreasing. New - season apple listing is delayed due to weather [23]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8200 [23].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a mostly positive trend, with apple futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.91%, reaching a high of 8192.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for apples opened at 8100.00 yuan/ton and fluctuated between a low of 8062.00 yuan and a high of 8192.00 yuan, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Southwest Futures noted that the main contract represents the new season's purchase price, with a slight increase in national production, contradicting previous reduction expectations [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted that the supply of early-ripening apples has decreased in recent years, leading to a significant price differentiation in the market, with high-quality apples commanding higher prices [2] - The new season's apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase prices for early-ripening apples in the northwest region are higher than last year, providing some support for late-ripening varieties [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on dips in the short term, focusing on the performance of the new season's apple production [2]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Group 1 - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 8, with corn at $4.06 per bushel, down 1.5 cents (0.37%), wheat at $5.15 per bushel, down 3.75 cents (0.72%), and soybeans at $9.88 per bushel, down 6.25 cents (0.63%) [1] - The market's focus shifted back to the significant production potential of U.S. corn and soybeans, influenced by favorable growing conditions, which severely impacted prices due to expectations of ample supply [1] - Analysts anticipate the upcoming USDA global supply and demand report to indicate a soybean production estimate of 4.365 billion bushels for the 2025/26 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.335 billion bushels in July [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts predict increased rainfall in the central and eastern Midwest regions of the U.S., with a high-pressure ridge moving from the southwest to the southeast, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to flow into the central U.S. [2] - Temperatures in the central U.S. are expected to be near or slightly above normal levels until August 15 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is in a game between short - term supply surplus and uncertainty of future ship purchases. The recent favorable rainfall in Canada and potential resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade add supply pressure. High - frequency data shows an increase in July palm oil production and a decline in exports, but positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, yet reduced mill operating rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The market is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is supported by concerns about trade policies and low near - month rapeseed arrivals, while being suppressed by high US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏. The market is volatile, and investors are advised to take a bullish view and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 9574 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Favorable rainfall in Canada and potential Sino - Australian trade resumption add supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption, ample supply, and high inventory pressure are offset by reduced mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Suggestion**: A bullish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [11]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: High US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏 suppress the market, while trade policy concerns and low near - month rapeseed arrivals provide support [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 140,480 lots, down 48,633 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 356,167 lots, down 63,512 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were + 21,321, an increase from last week's + 17,912. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were + 22,737, an increase from last week's + 16,688 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 9,063 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week, and the basis was + 126 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,660 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was - 113 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 13 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 267 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.45, and the average spot price ratio was 3.647 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,174 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 594 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 272 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 7, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 662 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 15.17% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 424,300 tons (69.69%) and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, unchanged from last week with a 0.03% month - on - month decline. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,800 tons (23.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 128,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (10.05%) from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (35.29%) from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume Change**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35,600 tons (15.17%) and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [103]. - **Demand - Side Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 24.93% as of August 1, up 3.56% from last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. International cotton prices lack a clear driving force and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. In China, inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market may still be in an increasing production cycle. Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, which will suppress raw sugar futures prices. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, with short - term range - bound fluctuations, a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, and increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] - **Pulp**: The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp than coniferous pulp. The demand side is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9][10] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,089 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,191 yuan/ton, a change of + 13 yuan/ton. In Brazil, as of August 1, the cotton picking progress in Mato Grosso was 18.3%, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year. On August 6, the local cotton price was 73.07 cents/pound, up 1.1% from the previous day and down 3.8% from the high in early July [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather story is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season may be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton sown area is higher than expected, the drought has improved, and export contracts are weak, so the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, imports in the third quarter are expected to be low, and there is an expectation of tight inventory before the new cotton is listed. However, the new cotton is growing well with a strong production - increasing expectation, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Considering the sufficient supply of the global cotton market in the new year, there is no continuous upward driving force in the long - term industrial end. Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a pressure - bearing and volatile mindset in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.5777 million tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the first half of July accelerated, and the sugar - making ratio was at a historical high. The supply outlook is improving, and raw sugar is in a weak shock. The new sugar production estimates in India and Thailand are optimistic, and the global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. In the third quarter, the peak crushing season in Brazil will suppress raw sugar futures prices. Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is low. However, the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but there is an increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be treated with a bearish mindset [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,186 yuan/ton, a change of + 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The import pulp spot market price was stable [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory removal is slow, and there is still supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. In China, affected by the off - season, the demand is weak, the finished paper inventory pressure is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and there is no positive driving force in the industrial chain. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [10]

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].