Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased volatility since December, reflecting a series of important events impacting liquidity and fundamental expectations, leading to a cautious and speculative sentiment among investors [1][27] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting and the domestic Central Economic Work Conference have set a more favorable overall tone than market expectations, laying a good foundation for a potential market rally [1][32] - The U.S. employment and inflation data released this week did not trigger further pessimism, instead providing more room for the Fed to consider further easing, with the November unemployment rate slightly rising and CPI data significantly below expectations [1][30] Group 2 - Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points did not lead to the anticipated liquidity shock from carry trade unwinding, as market expectations were already priced in [4][30] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that further data would be needed before making additional rate decisions, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4][30] - The convergence of various international events affecting liquidity expectations, combined with a supportive domestic policy environment, is expected to shift investor behavior from cautiousness to actively seeking opportunities [6][32] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that market rallies often require a catalytic event, with potential signals for the current rally categorized into three types: strong macro policy shifts, year-end market performance stabilization, and early-year market dynamics [7][33] - The current market conditions align with the second category, where strong performance throughout the year leads to a rally after year-end disturbances are resolved [7][33] - Key indicators to watch for potential rally signals include the possibility of interest rate cuts and improvements in fundamental data such as PPI, PMI, and corporate earnings forecasts [17][19] Group 4 - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from economic recovery and supportive policies, particularly in cyclical industries and new consumption trends [20][22] - High-growth sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing are expected to lead the market rally, supported by favorable liquidity conditions and risk appetite [24][22] - The market is anticipated to transition from a balanced style to favoring small-cap and technology growth sectors as the rally progresses [18][24]

- The report discusses the impact of year-end liquidity disturbances on the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are temporary and do not alter the upward trend[1][10] - The main investment theme is shifting from technology to cyclical sectors, with recommendations for chemical ETFs, dividend ETFs, and brokerage ETFs[1][10] - The report highlights the importance of the dollar depreciation as a key factor supporting the A-share market's slow bull trend[1][10] - The report mentions the use of a fund position monitoring model to track the allocation of funds, noting increased allocations in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and transportation[1][11] - The report indicates that the technology sector's internal growth rate is slowing down, and the market is transitioning to cyclical sectors[1][11] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustments are due to year-end liquidity disturbances, with quantitative private equity products reducing their risk exposure significantly[1][12] - The report notes that the dollar depreciation trend, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI data, will continue to provide effective support for the A-share market's upward movement[1][13] - The report includes a section on timing strategies, mentioning the use of price segmentation systems and insider trading activity indicators[14][15] - The report provides industry monitoring data, including analysts' industry sentiment expectations and financing and securities lending trends[19][21] - The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, noting changes in market preferences and the performance of various factors such as turnover, financial leverage, and profitability volatility[24][25]

推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

12月19日，"'十四五'广东成就"韶关专场新闻发布会在广州召开，现场介绍了"十四五"期间韶关市经济 社会发展总体情况和成效亮点。韶关市工信局局长张南生在会上介绍，"十四五"期间，韶关始终坚 持"没有落后的产业，只有落后的企业"这一理念，通过创新引领、数智赋能和绿色转型，让传统产业 从"制造"迈向"智造"，持续为韶关工业高质量发展注入新动能。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 张南生表示，在高端化升级方面，韶关着力推动"传统制造"向"高端智造"迈进。中南股份产品结构加速 从建筑用材向工业用材战略转型，特钢年产量突破110万吨，硕成科技、欧莱新材在半导体材料领域打 破国外垄断。目前，全市已培育国家级单项冠军企业1家、省级单项冠军企业14家、国家级"小巨人"企 业22家，数量居粤东西北地区前列；在智能化改造方面，韶关以数智赋能让传统产业"老树发新芽"。全 市累计410家规上工业企业实施数字化转型，中南股份智慧炼钢、中金岭南智慧矿山等项目成为行业标 杆，北纺智造、韶关液压件厂入选省制造业数字化转型典型案例，生产效率和节能降碳水平得到大幅提 升；在绿色化转型方面，韶关坚持践行"绿色发展不是'选择题'而是'必答题'"，全 ...

蓝天七色的全球化布局，正是东阿以政策为翼、以平台为桥，推动外贸高质量发展的生动缩影。当地积 极组织新航热交换、东阿阿胶（000423）等企业，密集亮相广交会、2025蒙古国际建材展、"外贸优 品"采购对接月等境内外重点展会活动，累计参与10场次。其中，在广交会上，东阿蓝天七色建材有限 公司就接待了全球28国客商200余人次，达成意向订单30余笔。通过"抱团参展"模式，让企业直面全球 采购商资源，精准对接市场需求，高效拓展海外合作渠道，为抢订单、拓市场搭建起坚实的"桥梁纽 带"。 为推动政策红利直达快享，东阿县靶向开展外贸政策赋能行动，先后举办外贸政策业务培训会、政策宣 讲会，并围绕跨境电商等热点领域组织专题政策宣介活动，累计培训企业业务骨干200余人次，让企业 清晰掌握政策要点、用足用好扶持红利。同时，积极协助企业申报各类专项支持，成功为鑫华环保、豪 事达等7家企业纳入山东省"外贸优品库"，为东阿钢球等6家企业申报重污染天气应急管控期间豁免清 单，切实保障企业生产经营稳定，为外贸发展筑牢政策保障。 在政策护航与平台支撑之外，东阿县还聚焦外贸新业态、新赛道，以精准服务激活增长新动能。唐派集 团银发用品跨境电商基 ...

近日，四川省眉山市某建材厂越界采矿生态环境损害赔偿案成功入选全省第二批生态环境损害赔偿 参考案例。眉山市探索推行"快速响应、闭环管理、协同联动"办案模式，为同类案件办理提供了可复 制、可参照、可实践的经验做法。 强化跨层级多部门协同，确保修复"落地实、见效快"。该案办理过程中，市、县两级自然资源部门 紧密协作，并联动同级农业农村、生态环境、林草等相关部门全程参与，共同监督修复实施，推动生态 修复措施落到实处、取得实效，切实维护国家和社会公共生态环境权益。 构建快速响应机制，实现线索"早发现、早处置"。2024年2月，眉山市规划和自然资源局在日常巡 查中发现问题线索后，第一时间指定辖区规划和自然资源部门调查核实，同步开展市级会商研判，及时 启动生态环境损害索赔程序；通过打通"日常监管—线索发现—损害核查"快速通道，实现违法线索即时 响应、损害情况及时认定、程序启动高效衔接，当年11月即完成修复质量核验，大幅提升了案件办理效 率。 眉山局相关负责人表示，下一步将继续深化自然资源生态环境损害赔偿制度实施，完善办案机制， 规范工作流程，提升修复成效，为自然资源领域生态保护修复探索提供更多"眉山方案"。 推行全流程闭环 ...

《建议》提出，聚焦未来材料、未来能源、未来生物、未来健康、未来显示、未来航空等领域，科学布 局金属新材料、固态电池、生物制造等产业新赛道。 中化新网讯 12月15日，《中共江西省委关于制定全省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 (下称《建议》)正式发布。其中，化工等传统产业的优化升级成为重要着力点。 在绿色发展方面，《建议》提出推动重点行业节能降碳，发展分布式能源，建设零碳工厂和园区。推动 能源清洁低碳安全高效利用，持续提高新能源供给比重，推进化石能源安全可靠有序替代。 《建议》提出，为优化提升传统产业，江西将重点推动有色金属、石化、建材等产业加快结构调整、提 质升级，通过实施产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关，强化技术改造与数智化转型，大力发展绿色制造 和智能制造，以增强产业综合竞争力。实施产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关，推动技术改造升级，加 快数智化转型，大力发展智能制造、绿色制造，促进先进制造业集群发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to implement incremental policies in 2026 to boost economic growth, focusing on the integration of existing and new policies to achieve qualitative and quantitative improvements in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Strategies - The primary task for 2026 is to maintain domestic demand as the main driver of growth, with consumption being the top priority. Current policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods have led to rapid sales growth, and the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is nearing 60% [1]. - The government aims to expand the scope of consumption policies from durable goods to more potential service sectors such as culture, tourism, and health [2]. Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - Significant increases in investment are expected in 2026, particularly in new urbanization, technological innovation, and major livelihood projects. The central budget investment scale is projected to rise from 7.3 trillion yuan in 2025 to provide strong capital support for major projects [2][3]. - The introduction of new policy-based financial tools, with an expected increase of several hundred billion yuan in 2026, will continue to support key projects [3]. Group 3: Industrial Upgrading and New Growth Drivers - The government plans to enhance traditional industries through technological upgrades and green transformations, potentially unlocking an additional market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Development of emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace is expected to create substantial market opportunities, with projections indicating the potential for tens of thousands of billions in new market scale [4]. Group 4: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The implementation of macroeconomic policies will emphasize systemic and coordinated approaches, focusing on optimizing fiscal spending and maintaining a reasonable level of debt while ensuring effective use of government bond funds [4]. - Structural reforms will continue to deepen, particularly in establishing a unified national market, which includes standardizing market access and competition regulations [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights that certain cyclical and consumer sectors have underperformed the market for three consecutive years, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][6]. Industry Analysis - The sectors with the highest expected net profit growth for next year include: - Agriculture (planting, breeding, feed) - Internet e-commerce - Leisure food - Beauty care (personal care products, cosmetics) - Light manufacturing (household goods, entertainment products) - Automotive services - Social services (hotel catering, tourist attractions) - Cement [1][6]. - Historical data since 2010 shows that industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and then outperformed in the fourth year include: - Food and beverage (leisure food, food processing, seasoning and fermentation products, non-brewed beverages) - Agriculture (breeding, feed, planting) - Beauty care (cosmetics, personal care products) - Infrastructure - Tourist attractions [1][6]. Financial Metrics - Expected net profit growth rates for various sectors by 2026 are as follows: - Planting: 41% - Breeding: 32% - Chemical fiber: 42% - Chemical raw materials: 24% - Automotive services: 24% - Internet e-commerce: 44% - Cement: 22% [2][7]. - The PE (Price to Earnings) ratios over the past three years indicate reasonable valuation levels for several sectors, with notable figures such as: - Planting at 75% - Chemical fiber at 94% - Internet e-commerce at 69% [2][7].

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交2.30亿元，其中，买入成交额为1.16亿 元，卖出成交额为1.14亿元，合计净买入162.03万元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，买入金额为 4778.04万元，第一大卖出营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司上海静安区新闸路证券营业部，卖出金 额为3054.12万元。 近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜21次，上榜次日股价平均跌1.10%，上榜后5日平均跌0.73%。 四川金顶(600678)今日下跌5.12%，全天换手率36.20%，成交额16.28亿元，振幅14.16%。龙虎榜数据显 示，营业部席位合计净买入162.03万元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达36.20%上榜，营业部席位合计净买入162.03万元。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流出5427.27万元，其中，特大单净流出2697.37万元，大单资金净 流出2729.89万元。近5日主力资金净流出3.20亿元。 10月31日公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入4.12亿元，同比增长84.41%，实现 净利润3205.85万元 ...