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有色金属行业双周报:贵金属价格走高,战略小金属价格分化
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-06-09 10:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.18% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Precious metals have shown strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the U.S. [5] - The report highlights a divergence in the prices of strategic minor metals, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.18% from May 26 to June 6, 2025, with small metals and new metal materials leading the gains at 4.56% and 3.93% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals saw changes of 1.41%, 0.38%, and 0.06% respectively during the same period [14] Precious Metals - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, down 0.80% over the past two weeks but up 24.70% year-to-date [22] - COMEX silver closed at $36.13 per ounce, up 7.40% over the past two weeks and 20.49% year-to-date, driven by unique attributes and market sentiment [27][24] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,795 per ton, up 2.08% over the past two weeks and 12.77% year-to-date [31] - LME aluminum closed at $2,432 per ton, down 0.23% over the past two weeks and down 4.12% year-to-date [31] Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 172,500 CNY per ton, up 4.86% over the past two weeks and 20.84% year-to-date [36] - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 215,000 CNY per ton, down 3.37% over the past two weeks but up 53.30% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 183.45 as of June 6, up 3.09% over the past two weeks and 12.01% year-to-date [47] - Neodymium praseodymium oxide closed at 449,000 CNY per ton, up 4.66% over the past two weeks and 12.81% year-to-date [47] Energy Metals - As of June 6, electrolytic cobalt averaged 233,550 CNY per ton, down 0.98% over the past two weeks but up 36.98% year-to-date [52] - Sulfuric acid cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,375 CNY per ton, down 1.28% over the past two weeks and up 81.18% year-to-date [52] Major Events - Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, diversified its portfolio into rare metals by acquiring Vostok Engineering, which holds a development license for a rare earth deposit estimated at 154 million tons [4][59]
有色金属周报:国际局势莫测下应坚守贵金属避风港-20250609
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-09 10:09
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源:金银上行,扩产在即》, 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份:原料自给上行,行业 持续景气》,2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报:黄金剧震,持续 看好》,2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业:利润高企,成长性明 显》,2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报:特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 , 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 , 2025.4.20 有色金属周报:国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...
有色金属行业周报:“关税缓和+就业放缓”预期释放,看好金属价格反弹-20250608
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 10:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [3][4]. Core Views - The combination of "tariff easing + employment slowdown" provides a premise for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a rebound in metal prices. Optimistic expectations regarding tariff policies have heightened market sentiment, although gold has seen a decline due to reduced safe-haven demand [1][36]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are in a state of fluctuation due to macroeconomic uncertainties and rising inventories, while aluminum prices are supported by decreasing social inventories despite tariff policy fluctuations [1]. - Energy metals, such as lithium, are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with lithium prices showing signs of fluctuation. The demand for electric vehicles continues to grow, but the market remains cautious [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a general increase in prices, with specific attention to gold and silver, which are influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [12][18]. - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase due to fluctuating macroeconomic conditions and rising inventories, with global copper stocks reported at 537,000 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week-on-week [1][23]. - Aluminum prices are supported by a decrease in social inventories, with theoretical operating capacity in China's electrolytic aluminum industry reaching 43.87 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [1][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rebound following a period of adjustment, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The recent employment data has raised concerns about economic growth, but the overall employment market is still showing signs of slowdown [1][36]. - Silver remains strong due to industrial demand, while gold has faced downward pressure from reduced safe-haven buying [1][36]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are currently fluctuating, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 59,000 yuan/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week. The supply side is seeing slight increases, but demand remains cautious due to market conditions [1][27]. - The demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, with cumulative sales of passenger and electric vehicles reaching 880.2 million and 438 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9% and 34% [1][27]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhongse Co. have made significant announcements regarding resource verification and project investments, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [34].
有色-能源金属行业周报:缅甸地区供应持续缩减,供应收紧预期对锡价或有支撑
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-08 07:25
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 缅甸地区供应持续缩减,供应收紧预期对锡价 或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比上涨,沪镍大幅去库 截止到 6 月 6 日,LME 镍现货结算价报收 15225 美元/ 吨,较 5 月 30 日上涨 0.5%,LME 镍总库存为 200106 吨,较 5 月 30 日增加 0.36%;沪镍报收 12.2 万元/吨,较 5 月 30 日上 涨 0.89%,沪镍库存为 25,616.00 吨,较 5 月 30 日减少 5.39%;截止到 5 月 30 日,硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨,较 5 月 30 日价格持平。根据 SMM,从供给端来看,国内方面的情 况是,虽然菲律宾镍矿的发运量持续增加,国内冶炼厂的原材 料库存也较为充足,但主产区苏里高以及巴拉望的中高品位镍 矿品位有所下滑,这可能导致国内冶炼厂的金属产量出现一定 程度的下降。印尼方面,尽管当前内贸火法镍矿的升水依然较 为坚挺,冶炼厂因此面临较高的成本压力,成品价格的疲软导 致冶 ...
浙商早知道-20250605
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-04 23:30
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.4%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.5%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.9%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on Wednesday were Beauty Care (+2.6%), Comprehensive (+2.5%), Textile and Apparel (+2.4%), Communication (+1.8%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.6%). The worst-performing sectors were Transportation (-0.6%), National Defense and Military Industry (-0.2%), Public Utilities (-0.1%), Banking (+0.0%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (+0.4%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,153 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.52 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Company Insights Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194) - The company is planning to build a factory in Thailand to enhance its global production capacity and has formed a strategic partnership with Jungheinrich to promote the electrification of the global material handling industry [5][6] - The introduction of intelligent handling robots is expected to create new opportunities for growth [6] Energy Metals Industry - The lithium price has dropped to a new low, entering a bottom range, indicating that the lithium industry has entered a "bottom" phase after over three years of adjustment, with price-to-book (PB) ratios at their lowest levels in recent years, highlighting investment value [6][7] - The overall lithium industry is still in a state of oversupply in 2025, but the surplus is expected to narrow to 52,000 tons in 2026. The current low lithium prices may lead to some projects being suspended and new projects being delayed, which could significantly improve the supply-demand balance in 2026 [7]
SolidPower2025Q1收入为600万美元,净亏损为1510万美元
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-29 07:30
Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry, indicating a "Buy" rating, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming months [6]. Core Insights - Solid Power reported a revenue of $6 million in Q1 2025, primarily from an agreement with SK On Co., Ltd. The operating expenses for the same period were $30 million, a decrease from $31.7 million in Q1 2024, attributed to reduced direct costs and overall financial diligence in management operations [1][8]. - The company experienced an operating loss of $24 million and a net loss of $15.1 million, translating to a loss of $0.08 per share. As of March 31, 2025, Solid Power maintained a strong liquidity position with total liquidity of $299.6 million [1][8]. - Capital expenditures totaled $2.4 million in Q1 2025, mainly for the construction of a continuous electrolyte production pilot line [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Solid Power's revenue was $6.016 million, slightly up from $5.953 million in Q1 2024. Operating expenses decreased to $30.045 million from $31.734 million in the previous year. The operating loss was $24.029 million, compared to $25.781 million in Q1 2024. The net loss attributable to common stockholders was $15.151 million, down from $21.207 million [8]. Recent Business Highlights - The detailed design of the planned sulfide electrolyte continuous production pilot line has been completed, with commissioning expected in 2026. The factory acceptance testing for the SK On pilot battery production line is nearing completion, with on-site acceptance testing scheduled for later this year [3]. - Customer feedback on electrolyte sampling is being actively received, which is expected to enhance performance through process engineering [3][4]. 2025 Outlook - Solid Power aims to achieve key objectives in 2025, including driving electrolyte innovation and performance through customer feedback and internal battery development. The company will continue to execute its electrolyte technology development roadmap, including the installation of the pilot continuous electrolyte production line [5][7].
有色金属行业双周报:近一周贵金属价格回升,需关注锑价下行风险-20250527
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-05-27 02:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.88% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking seventh among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals showed strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data [5] - The report highlights the importance of strategic minor metals investment opportunities amid intensified international market purchasing [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.88% from May 12 to May 23, 2025, with industrial metals and precious metals leading the gains at 2.87% and 2.45% respectively [2][13] Precious Metals - As of May 23, COMEX gold closed at $3,357.70 per ounce, reflecting a 4.75% increase over the past week and a 25.70% rise year-to-date [21][23] - COMEX silver closed at $33.64 per ounce, up 3.73% over the past week and 12.19% year-to-date [21][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,595 per ton, up 1.15% over the past two weeks and 10.47% year-to-date [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,437 per ton, increasing by 1.50% over the past two weeks but down 3.90% year-to-date [30][32] Minor Metals - The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was reported at 225,000 yuan per ton, down 5.32% over the past two weeks but up 58.65% year-to-date [36][37] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 164,500 yuan per ton, down 1.79% over the past two weeks and up 15.24% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 177.95, up 0.55% over the past two weeks and 8.65% year-to-date [47] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide was priced at 429,000 yuan per ton, up 1.42% over the past two weeks [47] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 235,850 yuan per ton, down 2.54% over the past two weeks but up 38.33% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,000 yuan per ton, down 0.71% over the past two weeks and up 83.52% year-to-date [51] Major Events - China issued export licenses for rare earths to at least four producers, marking the first such issuance since export controls were implemented in April [4][58]
有色-能源金属行业周报
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-25 10:15
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌,Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌,沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日,LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨,较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%,LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨,较 5 月 16 日增加 1.75%;沪镍报收 12.31 万元/吨,较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.25%,沪镍库存为 26,955.00 吨,较 5 月 16 日 减少 2.84%;截止到 5 月 16 日,硫酸镍报收 28,900.00 元/吨, 较 5 月 16 日价格持平。根据 SMM 周报,硫酸镍方面,需求 端表现方面,经过 5 月行业去库存后,部分前驱体生产企业 6 月排产计划趋于乐观,对硫酸镍的询价活跃度显著提升,且 企业对镍盐价格的接受度有所增强。供应端来看,部分镍盐生 产企业受需求增长及原料库存紧张影响,上调了产品报价系 数,另有部分企业报价维持稳 ...
理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-24 07:20
Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]
有色金属大宗金属周报:中美关税“降级”催化,成本支撑叠加库存去化,铝价大涨-20250518
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-05-18 13:14
证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC:S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC:S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC:S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC:S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 板块表现: 中美关税"降级"催化,成本支撑叠加库存去化,铝价大涨 投资评级: 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(2025/5/12-2025/5/16) 投资要点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜:铜价维持震荡,等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.86%/+0.89%/-1.34%,本周一中美发布经贸会谈联合声明,实现对等关税"降级", 受此催化全球商品价格反弹,沪铜一度反弹至 7.9 万元/吨,后续逐步回落至 7.8 万 元/吨。基本 ...