Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - **Related News**: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - **Related News**: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - **Related News**: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - **Related News**: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: International methanol production increases [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - **Related News**: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread

| | | 约短线预计在2370-2430区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2373 | -19 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -47 | -4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 694298 | 8589 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -120434 | -22373 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8720 | 95 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4279 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4347 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 35 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 54.2 tons (up 3.6 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure on inventory rebound [1] - The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still benign, but the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented after the warehouse receipts are cancelled. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of July. The demand is currently strong, but several large bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price and Basis - The report involves the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, with specific price and basis changes as described in the core view [1][5][6] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profit of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas - based, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol, as well as the total load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol [9][13][15] 3.3 International Price Difference - It shows the international price difference of ethylene glycol between the US FOB and China CFR [16][18] 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - It covers the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [17][19][21] 3.5 Inventory Data - It includes the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol in East China ports [29][30][38]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly lower during the night session, with significant declines in oilseeds and oils [1] - Soybean meal dropped by 0.51%, soybean oil fell by 0.44%, and palm oil increased by 0.43% [1] - The black series also experienced declines, with rebar down 0.36%, hot-rolled coil down 0.31%, iron ore down 0.27%, and coking coal down 0.24% [1] Group 2 - Chemical products showed mixed results, with asphalt rising by 0.90% and styrene increasing by 0.38%, while ethylene glycol and PVC saw slight declines of 0.07% and 0.10% respectively [1] - Energy products generally increased, with low-sulfur fuel oil up by 1.89%, fuel oil up by 1.05%, and LPG rising by 0.34% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts in Iran driving oil prices, which in turn influence the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Once the geopolitical tensions ease, the market will return to fundamentals. The weak demand for CPL and aniline in the downstream of pure benzene, combined with the pressure of South Korean pure benzene exports to China and high port inventories, keep the processing fees of pure benzene low, dragging down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the domestic and overseas maintenance peak, the average operation of downstream PS and ABS, and the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of terminal production scheduling, styrene is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are expected to be further compressed. Therefore, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2][9][151]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **2025 Pure Benzene and Downstream Production Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there are plans to add 210 million tons/year of pure benzene production capacity, with 97 million tons/year already realized and 113 million tons/year to be realized in the second half of the year. The production capacity expansion rate is 2.8% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. Attention should be paid to the progress of the 2 reforming and cracking of Yulong Petrochemical's Phase I project. For styrene, the production capacity expansion pressure increases in the second half of the year, with only 500,000 tons of Yulong put into production at the beginning of the year, and the commissioning of Zhongtai Chemical postponed [7][22][23]. - **Pure Benzene Supply**: In the first half of 2025, pure benzene maintenance was concentrated, but port inventory pressure increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene production from January to May was 2.8%, mainly due to concentrated refinery maintenance from April to May. After June, domestic production capacity utilization rebounded rapidly. The port inventory pressure was due to a 62.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in imports from January to May and the weak downstream operation, especially the decline in CPL and aniline operations. The negative basis structure of pure benzene deepened to around - 80 yuan/ton in July, and the processing fees were at a historical low [36][38]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was less resilient than expected. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of pure benzene industrial demand from January to May was 11%, with the growth rate of styrene production at 15% and the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand at 9% (21% in the previous year). CPL and aniline operations declined, while phenol operation was fair but later entered a loss state again, and adipic acid was in an over - supply and loss - reduction cycle [72]. - **Styrene Fundamentals**: In 2025, styrene production profits recovered in the first half of the year, and the operation rate increased. However, with the increase in domestic and overseas supply, production profits are expected to decline. In the first half of the year, overseas maintenance was concentrated, driving exports and reducing port inventories. In the second half of the year, as overseas operations resumed, ports will return to the inventory accumulation cycle. The styrene port inventory reached a historical low in May, and the basis fluctuated greatly. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand from the five major downstream industries of styrene from January to May was 11.7%. The production growth rates of PS and ABS were high but mainly converted into finished - product inventory pressure. The production capacity expansion of the three major hard plastics in 2025 was significant, but the actual demand increase may be less than expected [78][90][118]. 2. Market Analysis - In June, geopolitical conflicts in Iran drove oil prices, which in turn influenced the prices of pure benzene and styrene. After the conflicts eased, the market returned to fundamentals. The weak downstream demand for pure benzene and the high port inventory pressure dragged down the cost of styrene. For styrene, with the end of the maintenance peak and the decline in terminal production scheduling, it is in an inventory rebuilding cycle, and production profits are under pressure [9]. 3. Strategy - Cautiously short - sell for hedging on rallies. Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [10][151].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the wave of "anti-involution" sweeping through various industries, indicating a new round of supply-side reforms is imminent. The focus is on promoting product quality and orderly exit of outdated capacities [5][22] - The chemical industry is expected to see an optimization of supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies benefiting from improved management and energy control [5][22] Summary by Sections Industry Trends and Events - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.74% this week, with 292 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [17] - The report tracks price fluctuations in various chemical products, noting that 43 products increased in price while 120 decreased over the past week [18] Key Products Tracking - Refrigerants are experiencing a steady price increase due to quota implementation, with significant price rises observed for R22 (+77%), R32 (+272%), R125 (+107%), and R134a (+115%) since September 2023 [23][24] - The polyester filament industry is seeing a concentration in supply, with the top six companies holding over 80% of the market share. Future capacity growth is expected to slow to 3-4% annually [31] - The metal silicon and organic silicon sectors are witnessing upward price trends, driven by the photovoltaic industry and recent production cuts [35] Recommendations and Beneficiaries - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical, among others [6] - Beneficiaries of the anti-involution trend include companies in the refrigerant sector like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co., as well as polyester filament producers like Xinfengming and Tongkun [6][31][35]

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约跌0.43%。周三宏观与地缘方面的利多支撑未能延续，6月非农就 业的超预期表现弱化美联储降息预期,在美越贸易协议之后,临近7月9日豁免到期大限美国与其他 大多数国家的贸易协议悬而未决；伊核争端也有重回谈判与制裁博弈模式的迹象，中东军事冲突风 险短期可控。原油供需面宽松主题延续,上周全球石油库存进一步累增,旺季因素亦难扭转 OPEC+快速增产预期之下的累库趋势。原油供需指引仍偏负面,关注宏观及地缘因素摇摆风险。 (责金属) 隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百分点至 4.1%、就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震荡， 关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜高位震荡收跌，6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率，美元指数走强。 国内现铜昨报80980元,注意2507合约减仓节奏。技术上,周内沪铜涨势测试8.1万。中长期趋势交 易仍建议关注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。昨日各地区现货转向 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the establishment of a coordinator mechanism by Hangzhou Customs to assist AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) enterprises in resolving customs-related issues, significantly improving their clearance efficiency and market competitiveness [1][3]. - The coordinator team operates through an "online + offline" model, providing 24/7 responses, cross-department collaboration, and precise policy implementation to address various customs challenges faced by AEO enterprises [1][3]. - Since the mechanism's inception, Hangzhou Customs has resolved over 200 issues for AEO enterprises, demonstrating its effectiveness in facilitating smoother customs processes [1]. Group 2 - Zhejiang Shuanghuan Transmission Machinery Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of compliance capability enhancement after becoming an AEO enterprise, which has helped them identify and rectify risks in their import and export documentation process [3]. - The customs coordinator mechanism allows enterprises to enjoy expedited customs procedures, priority inspections, and reduced inspection rates, contributing to overall operational efficiency [3]. - As of March, the customs coordinator team is expanding, and Hangzhou Customs has launched an online service initiative to address urgent needs of enterprises, ensuring responsive support for their development [3]. Group 3 - According to customs statistics, there are currently 220 AEO enterprises in the jurisdiction of Hangzhou Customs, which accounted for an import and export volume of 141.38 billion yuan from January to May this year, representing 6.3% of Zhejiang's total foreign trade [5]. - These AEO enterprises are positioned as leaders in the high-level development of Zhejiang's foreign trade [5].

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 海外装置运行不稳，EG震荡上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4299元/吨（较前一交易日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动+32元/吨，幅度+0.74%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）74元/吨（环比+5元/ 吨）。沙特装置因电力因素大面积短停，同时马来西亚一套75万吨/年的乙二醇装置上游裂解因故停车，乙二醇装置 运行稳定性欠佳，海外产量恢复不如预期，EG价格震荡上行。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为2元/吨（环比-7 元/吨）。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单陆续注销流出 后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。 需求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂7月初检修计划集中，需求预期偏弱，关注实际兑现情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2 ...