Group 1: Gold Market - Recent closed-door meetings between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia have led to "creative progress" regarding maritime security and energy facility protection, indicating a potential easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but revised inflation expectations upward while lowering economic forecasts, increasing the likelihood of an earlier rate cut, potentially by June [1] - Technical analysis shows gold has experienced three consecutive weekly gains, with a bullish trend, although short-term fluctuations are expected around the $3,030 resistance level [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The US military has conducted at least 47 attacks against Houthi forces in Yemen, while Houthi forces have targeted the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, raising concerns about the security of oil shipping routes in the Red Sea [2] - The Mandeb Strait, through which approximately 7.2 million barrels of oil pass daily, is critical for global oil trade, and any blockade could severely impact energy supplies [2] - Despite the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains tense, with potential for escalation due to increased US actions against Houthi forces and sanctions on Iran [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak performance, failing to break the resistance at the 38,100 level, with a higher probability of continued declines [3] - Key support levels to watch are at 37,400 and 37,000 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices have surged over 11% in the past two weeks, indicating strong bullish momentum, although there is a potential need for a pullback [4] - A drop below $5.02 could lead to a focus on the $4.90 support level [4]

今天先聊债券，因为债券跌得最多，给大家按摩一下。 跌得确实有点多，满屏都是绿色的，7-10年利率债基今天跌0.5%左右，而10年国债从1.74%的位置上行4.55bps，你从比例上看， 差不多相当于上 证跌3%吧 ，那肯定算大跌了对吧。 | 利率债二级 | | | 信用债二级 | 同业存单二级 | | 同业存单一级 … … " | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1Y | | 2Y | ЗУ | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | 10Y以上 | | 国债 | 250001.IB | 240024.IB | 250005.IB | 250003.IB | 240018.IB | 240011.IB | 2400006 ... | | 1.5850 | | 1.5100 | 1.6000 | 1.6600 | 1.7475 | 1.7875 | 1.9750 | | - 8.50 | | - 7.00 | - 5.50 | - 6.00 | - 6.50 | 4.55 | - 3.75 | | 国开 | 210203.IB | 220203 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's policies on market dynamics, highlighting concerns over growth stagnation and increased trade uncertainty, which have led to a decline in momentum trading and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.3% in 2025, underperforming European and Canadian benchmarks, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a monthly drop of 3% [3]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.59% on a recent Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.78% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45%, resulting in a collective market cap loss of nearly $550 billion for major tech stocks [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology, communication, and discretionary consumer sectors are expected to lead the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, but are projected to be at the bottom in 2025 due to stock sell-offs [2]. - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples are anticipated to outperform in 2025 as investors shift towards safer investments [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish, with expectations of stock price declines rising over 20 percentage points to nearly 61% in a recent week [5]. - Retail investors have begun to exit momentum-driven speculative trading, with a significant sell-off of $1.1 billion in stocks occurring in just the first two hours of trading on a recent Monday, marking the largest outflow since March 2020 [5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index has breached critical mid-term CTA liquidation trigger levels, potentially leading to sell-offs of at least $12.6 billion and $58 billion in the coming weeks [6]. - Major stock indices have also broken through key technical support levels, indicating increased market volatility and potential further declines [6].