gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月11日 (原油) 夜盘油价波动剧烈。3月9日，美国总统特朗普表示将迅速结束相关军事行动,然而昨日又宣称事态 将升级，令市场情绪再度紧绷。当前中东地区军事冲突持续，霍尔木兹海峡通航严重受限，仅有极 少数船只得以通行，整体通航量持续处于极低水平。沙特与阿联酋已启用替代管道，预计后续原油 发运量将有所回升。航运受阻已导致实质性的供应中断:伊拉克减产近150万桶/日，鲁迈拉等主力 油田减产幅度尤为明显；科威特则削减30万桶/日的供应。沙特与阿联酋的现有原油储存空间仅能支 撑数日。如果海峡通行持续受阻,预计将有更多产油国跟进减产。接下来需密切关注霍尔木兹海峡 的通航情况变化，以及中东主要产油国的实际发货量。在海峡恢复通行之前，预计油价仍将维持高 位运行,短期内多空消息交织,市场波动料将加剧。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。媒体报道称特朗普表示可能愿意与伊朗进行对话，伊朗外长称新任最高领袖 不会与美谈判。全球经济前景以及降息路径存在不确定性，贵金属呈现历史高位震荡格局，原油剧 烈波动后通胀预期走强，关注今晚美国CPI数据。 【铜】 隔夜 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing opportunities driven by supply rigidity and demand resilience [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.29% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - Key price movements include significant increases in aluminum (10.87%), tungsten (30.58%), and molybdenum (7.48%), while industrial metals like copper and energy metals saw declines [2][17][28][43]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are impacting supply chains and prices, with a focus on the implications for various metals [4][19][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 0.29% from February 23 to March 6, 2026, with small metals (5.45%), precious metals (4.29%), and new metal materials (0.39%) increasing, while industrial metals (-1.37%) and energy metals (-2.90%) decreased [1][11]. Precious Metals - As of March 6, COMEX gold closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, up 1.00% over two weeks, and year-to-date up 19.60% [2][18]. - COMEX silver closed at $84.70 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% over two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [2][18]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,808.00 per ton, up 0.45% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 2.43% [2][28]. - Aluminum prices surged due to supply disruptions, with LME aluminum at $3,385.00 per ton, reflecting a 10.87% increase over two weeks [2][32]. Small Metals - Molybdenum prices rose to 4,455 yuan per ton, up 7.48% over two weeks, driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical tensions [2][37]. - Tungsten prices reached 918,000 yuan per ton, up 30.58% over two weeks, influenced by domestic policy and supply constraints [2][43]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 295.42, up 1.80% over two weeks, with significant increases in prices for lanthanum and cerium oxides [2][53][54]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,500 yuan per ton, up 1.17% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 8.95% to 155,250 yuan per ton [2][58].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Industry Rotation Strategy Framework **Construction Idea**: Borrowing the analytical framework of stock multi-factor models, constructing industry rotation factors for different industries to identify high-prosperity industries with potential excess returns at each rebalancing date[8] **Construction Process**: Includes basic data processing, single-factor testing, and composite factor synthesis[9] - **Model Name**: Composite Industry Rotation Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the four dimensions of industry rotation factors, using equal-weighted methods to construct the final composite industry rotation factor[65] **Construction Process**: Standardizing single-view composite factors and combining them equally to form the composite factor. The effectiveness of the composite factor is verified using the single-factor testing framework[13][65] Model Backtesting Results - **Composite Industry Rotation Model**: - IC Mean: 12.54% - ICIR: 50.92% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 17.84% - Annualized Excess Return Relative to CSI 800 Index: 14.44%[65][67][68] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods **Basic Fundamental Prosperity Factors** - **Factor Name**: TTM Accounts Receivable Turnover Rate QoQ Growth **Construction Idea**: Reflects the speed and efficiency of recovering receivables, representing the growth in accounts receivable turnover rate[17] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Accounts Receivable Turnover Rate} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Revenue}_{TTM}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Accounts Receivable}_{TTM}} $[17] - **Factor Name**: Reported End-of-Period Current Asset Ratio YoY Growth **Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of liquid assets in total assets, reflecting financial quality[18] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Current Asset Ratio} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Current Assets}_{End-of-Period}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Total Assets}_{End-of-Period}} $[18] - **Factor Name**: TTM Inventory Turnover Rate YoY Growth **Construction Idea**: Reflects inventory management efficiency and turnover speed[20] **Formula**: $ \text{Industry Inventory Turnover Rate} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual Stock Cost of Goods Sold}_{TTM}}{\sum \text{Individual Stock Inventory}_{TTM}} $[20] **Super Expectation Level Factors** - **Factor Name**: Abnormal Returns Before and After Announcements **Construction Idea**: Measures cumulative excess returns relative to CSI 800 Index before and after earnings announcements[36] **Construction Process**: Calculates cumulative daily excess returns from announcement day (T) to two days after (T+2)[36] - **Factor Name**: Net Profit Expectation Change Score **Construction Idea**: Quantifies changes in analysts' net profit expectations for stocks over the past 60 days[37] **Construction Process**: Scores changes exceeding ±1% and aggregates scores weighted by market capitalization[37] **Volume-Price Level Factors** - **Factor Name**: Intraday Momentum **Construction Idea**: Captures the trend persistence driven by intraday trading funds[45] **Construction Process**: Calculates the ratio of daily closing price to opening price, aggregated over 10 days[45] - **Factor Name**: Overnight Momentum **Construction Idea**: Reflects sentiment-driven changes, showing reversal effects[46] **Construction Process**: Calculates the ratio of opening price to previous closing price, aggregated over 40 days, and reverses the factor value[46] **Capital Flow Intensity Factors** - **Factor Name**: Active Super Large Order Capital Flow Intensity **Construction Idea**: Represents institutional investors' informed trading behavior[58] **Construction Process**: Calculates the average daily net inflow of super large orders over the past 10 days, divided by average market capitalization[58] - **Factor Name**: Small Order Capital Flow Stability **Construction Idea**: Reflects individual investors' activity and stability[61] **Construction Process**: Calculates deviations of small order net inflows from historical averages, standardized across industries[61] Factor Backtesting Results **Basic Fundamental Prosperity Factors** - IC Mean: 5.75% - ICIR: 24.81% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 9.56% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -1.74%[31][34] **Super Expectation Level Factors** - IC Mean: 7.31% - ICIR: 28.99% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 10.93% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -2.87%[41][42] **Volume-Price Level Factors** - IC Mean: 7.16% - ICIR: 32.98% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 8.65% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: -1.22%[54][55] **Capital Flow Intensity Factors** - IC Mean: 7.18% - ICIR: 32.10% - Annualized Return of High-Prosperity Group: 13.79% - Annualized Return of Low-Prosperity Group: 1.43%[62][63][64] ETF Industry Rotation Investment Portfolio Construction - **Construction Process**: - High-Prosperity Industry Selection: Selects six industries from the high-prosperity group each month[72] - ETF Selection Framework: Filters ETFs based on correlation, liquidity, and return elasticity, ensuring industry exposure purity and transaction feasibility[70][71] ETF Portfolio Backtesting Results - **Performance Statistics**: - Correlation Priority Mode: Annualized Return 18.78%, Sharpe Ratio 0.85 - Liquidity Priority Mode: Annualized Return 18.57%, Sharpe Ratio 0.80 - Return Elasticity Priority Mode: Annualized Return 21.20%, Sharpe Ratio 0.91[81][80] - **March 2026 Recommended ETF Portfolio**: - **Industries**: Nonferrous Metals, Machinery Equipment, Steel, National Defense, Basic Chemicals, Communication - **ETF Products**: Includes Silver China CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF, Guotai CSI Machine Tool ETF, etc.[83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing opportunities driven by supply rigidity and demand resilience [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.29% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - Key price movements include significant increases in aluminum (10.87%), tungsten (30.58%), and molybdenum (7.48%), while industrial metals like copper and energy metals saw declines [2][17][28][43]. - Geopolitical tensions have disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting aluminum and tungsten prices, while demand from the military sector is expected to rise due to ongoing conflicts [4][38][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2026.2.23-2026.3.6) - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 0.29%, with small metals (5.45%), precious metals (4.29%), and new metal materials (0.39%) increasing, while industrial metals (-1.37%) and energy metals (-2.90%) decreased [1][11]. 2. Precious Metals - As of March 6, COMEX gold closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, up 1.00% over two weeks, and year-to-date up 19.60% [18]. - COMEX silver closed at $84.70 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% over two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [18][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold due to the ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20]. 3. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,808.00 per ton, up 0.45% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 2.43% [28]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on copper prices and suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [28]. 4. Small Metals - Molybdenum prices increased to 4,455 yuan per ton, up 7.48% over two weeks, driven by supply disruptions and increased military demand [37][38]. - Tungsten prices surged to 918,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 30.58% increase over two weeks due to supply constraints and rising demand from the solar energy sector [43][44]. 5. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index reached 295.42, up 1.80% over two weeks, with significant increases in lanthanum and cerium prices [53][54]. - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to the tightening supply and increasing demand [54]. 6. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,500 yuan per ton, up 1.17% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices rose to 155,250 yuan per ton, reflecting an 8.95% increase [58][59]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in lithium and cobalt production due to their strong market performance [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年3月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24230，基差-185；偏空。 3、库存：3月10日LME锌库存较上日增加4150吨至98950吨，3月10日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加2095吨至78444吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Tightness in the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk appetite causes disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to market sentiment disturbances [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: The overall situation is weak [2][17]. - Polysilicon: Demand is declining [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 137,050 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,225 yuan. The price of 1 imported nickel was 138,200 yuan, and the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,086 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026; the Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; the Indonesian government's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons; a landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and suspension of operations in the affected area [4][5][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the 2605 contract was 163,000 yuan, and the closing price of the 2607 contract was 162,700 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,500 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary has a production capacity of 300,000 tons of high - density lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and is promoting the construction of new production capacity; Tianci Materials plans to build a new energy materials industrial park in Yichang, Hubei [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,625 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 42,450 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, and the factory inventory of polysilicon was 348,000 tons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the application for the development and construction plan of on - shore wind power and photovoltaic power stations in 2026 [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20].

2026 年 03 月 11 日 铜：国内现货贴水收窄，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 宏观方面，伊朗称不会相信美国的任何承诺、"军事行动进入全新阶段"，美放风护航后删帖，特朗普警 告伊勿布雷。特朗普：有可能有条件同伊朗谈判！美防长称发起"最高强度"打击！伊议长：绝不寻求停火。 （华尔街见闻） 中国 2 月以美元计价出口同比增 39.6%，进口同比增 13.8%，增速重回两位数。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，随着关税和数据中心需求激增提高美国铜制造商收入，Revere 铜产品公司正在加大美国投 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,520 | 1.33% | 101860 | 0.33% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,097 | 1.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260311 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：国际油价高波延续，国内开年贸易数据亮眼 海外方面，美伊冲突升级为围绕霍尔木兹海峡与伊朗能源体系的博弈，战事烈度上升， 但美以仍试图保留谈判与控局空间。同时，美国并未实质提供护航，说明海峡通行风险和中 东供应扰动并未解除；油价暴跌更多反映对停火、护航和制裁豁免的预期交易，而非风险出 清。后续关注：一是伊朗是否真正布雷或扩大袭船；二是美以是否收缩对伊能源设施打击； 三是 IEA 与 G7 会否协调释放战略储备。目前市场定价美联储降息节点延后至 9 月，美股震 荡微跌，油价维持高波动、盘中一度下探至 81 美元，随后反弹至 87 美元附近，金银铜价格 延续修复走势，本周继续关注美伊局势演变及美国通胀数据。 国内方面，中国前两月外贸实现强劲开局，2 月以美元计价出口同比增 21.8%，进口同 比增 19.8%，远超市场预期。出口在春节错位、海外资本开支回暖及"抢出口"等因素带动 下显著走强，进口亦同步改善，反映内外需均有修复。结构上，机电产品继续支撑出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with the situation in the Middle East being a key factor affecting various sectors. The conflict has led to disruptions in the supply chain, especially in the energy and shipping industries, and has also impacted market sentiment and risk preferences [89][90][125]. - The macro - economic environment is complex. The Chinese government's policies announced during the Two Sessions have certain impacts on the domestic market, and the market is also affected by factors such as the expected Fed interest rate cuts and employment data in the US [7][11]. - Different industries have different trends. Some industries are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by cost factors and seasonal factors. For example, in the metal industry, some metals face supply - demand mismatches in the short term but have good long - term fundamentals; in the energy and chemical industry, the prices of many products are affected by the rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts [2][16][93]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch, with high production in March, inventory accumulation, and limited upward price drivers. In the long term, the fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and downstream resumption of work [2][16]. - **Styrene**: The supply increment in March is limited, and the supply - demand is expected to have a slight de - stocking. Driven by the rise in oil prices and export orders, the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will also improve marginally. The price may fluctuate greatly in the short term, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, vegetable oils are oscillating upwards. Palm oil and soybean oil have different trends, and the market is affected by factors such as production, exports, and demand [5][80]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro situation boosts market sentiment, and the stock index oscillates and stabilizes. The market is affected by domestic policies and international geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and central bank policies, the prices of precious metals are under pressure. In the long term, the demand for precious metals is expected to increase, but in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and take protective measures for long positions [9][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and weak upward drivers. The long - term fundamentals are good, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and overseas macro - drivers [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the inventory is in a state of slight de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [16][18]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the price volatility increases. The short - term market is cautious, and the long - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to rise [18][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term market oscillates in a range. The key lies in the downstream resumption and order recovery [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak in the short term. The fundamentals are good, but the price may be suppressed if the downstream production resumption is not as expected [24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price oscillates widely. The long - term bullish logic exists, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high, and the price oscillates in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of weak demand and high inventory [31][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The policy expectations are gradually released, and the supply - demand is slowly recovering. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro and supply uncertainties, the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is falling, and the futures price rises and then falls. The supply pressure is high, but the demand is expected to recover in March. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and sales [44][46]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price oscillates, and the demand after the festival needs to be verified. The supply increment in March is limited, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. Attention should be paid to the export volume and the height of the apparent demand [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate [52][55]. - **Coke**: The steel mills propose to lower the price, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate [56][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate greatly in the short term. Attention should be paid to exports [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese ore is rising, and the supply of manganese silicon is increasing slightly. The price is affected by the cost of manganese ore and the supply - demand of manganese silicon, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [63][65]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets oscillate at a high level, and the domestic soybean meal basis falls. The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [66][68]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the price oscillates weakly. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage [69][70]. - **Corn**: Supported by the replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm and policy grain sources [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic market oscillates at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [74]. - **Cotton**: The price first rises and then falls, and the adjustment range is limited. The long - term center of gravity is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and weather [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The market speed is slow, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by crude oil, the price oscillates upwards. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to production, exports, and demand [80][83]. - **Jujubes**: The demand is weak, and the price oscillates in a range. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal [84][85]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal progress is good, and the price continues to rise. The market is affected by production, quality, and inventory [86][88]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rises. The key is the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - loss and take - profit [89][91]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price is strong in the short term. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [92][93]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price is driven by the cost. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [94][96]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission [97]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material is expected to be strong, and the supply is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to take long positions and pay attention to the processing fee [98][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to take a positive spread between EG5 and EG9 [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the oil price [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by the cost, the price is strong. It is recommended to take long positions with caution and pay attention to the downstream start - up and the Strait of Hormuz [3][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market transaction weakens. The supply may shrink in the future, and the demand is warming up. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. The supply may decrease, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price oscillates at a high level. The supply is affected by imports, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price hits the daily limit. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. It is necessary to be vigilant against the price decline when the situation eases [109][110]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the price fluctuates emotionally. The supply is high, and the demand is normal. The price is pushed up by cost concerns [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand improves marginally, and the price consolidates at a high level. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and take long positions [113]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro situation boosts the sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [114][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption is less than expected, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Affected by the overseas geopolitical situation, the price oscillates in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by exports [118][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict drives the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [122][124]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping price increases, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping capacity. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [124][125].