氯碱日报 | 2025-08-15 烧碱逆势上涨，PVC震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4970元/吨（-46）；华东基差-150元/吨（-14）;华南基差-70元/吨（+6）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4820元/吨（-60）；华南电石法报价4900元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-252元/吨（-231）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-489元/吨（-10）；PVC出口利润6.5美元/吨（-0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.7万吨（-0.8）；PVC社会库存48.1万吨（+3.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.92%（+0.37%）；PVC开工率78.84%（+1.09%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量83.2万吨（-2.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2530元/吨（+49）；山东32%液碱基差33元/吨（+14）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice outlining the 2025 industrial energy conservation inspection tasks and carbon reduction diagnostic services, targeting multiple petrochemical and chemical enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Energy Conservation Inspection Tasks - A total of 26 refining enterprises, 13 synthetic ammonia enterprises, 3 chemical fiber and blended fabric enterprises, 2 tire enterprises, 1 chemical enterprise, 1 fertilizer enterprise, 1 titanium dioxide enterprise, and 1 coal-to-methanol enterprise are included in the energy conservation inspection task list [1] - The notice emphasizes the need for energy conservation and carbon reduction diagnostics to identify weaknesses in production processes, key product equipment, energy structure, and energy management systems [1] Group 2: Carbon Reduction Diagnostic Services - The notice includes 1 petrochemical enterprise, 5 nitrogen fertilizer enterprises, 1 rubber and plastic products enterprise, 1 chlor-alkali enterprise, and 3 chemical enterprises in the carbon reduction diagnostic service task list [1] - The document highlights the importance of energy conservation and carbon reduction services in guiding enterprises to implement energy-saving technology transformations and promote equipment upgrades [2]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply - The domestic caustic soda production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week - on - week to 84.1% this week, with both shutdown and restart of production facilities [3]. - Demand - Last week, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.15% week - on - week to 85.73%. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate rose by 1.07% week - on - week to 86.04%, and the dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week - on - week to 61.46% [3]. - Inventory - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week - on - week to 43.78 tons. The price of the liquid caustic soda market increased due to some maintenance and production - reduction facilities in Shandong not fully restored and the purchase price of downstream alumina plants being raised [3]. - Outlook - Although the liquid chlorine subsidy in Shandong continues, the chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period. Enterprises have strong willingness to increase production. Currently, the alumina industry is profitable and is expected to operate stably. Non - aluminum downstream lacks improvement signals. SH2509 should pay short - term attention to the pressure around 2600, and SH2601 should focus on the support around 2530 and the pressure around 2700 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2530 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 49 yuan/ton. The main contract position was 61,036 lots, a decrease of 9420 lots week - on - week [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures was - 20,130 lots, a decrease of 788 lots week - on - week. The trading volume of the main contract was 321,223 lots, an increase of 216,118 lots week - on - week [3]. - The closing price of the January contract was 2631 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2718 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 820 yuan/ton in Shandong and 890 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton in Shandong and no change in Jiangsu [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2563 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 33 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt was 210 yuan/ton in both Shandong and the Northwest, with no change week - on - week [3]. - The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine was - 50.5 yuan/ton in Shandong, an increase of 99.5 yuan/ton week - on - week, and - 100 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average production capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a decrease of 1.0% week - on - week [3]. - As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 5.18% week - on - week and an increase of 18.61% year - on - year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The PVC market is affected by macro - sentiment, with the disk fluctuating strongly. However, the fundamentals remain weak. Supply pressure is high due to increased production, while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation. Although the cost provides some support, the 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Demand from the alumina sector is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking during the peak season and the production schedule of Guangxi alumina [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5016 yuan/ton (-31), the East China basis is -136 yuan/ton (+31), and the South China basis is -76 yuan/ton (+31) [3]. - Spot: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4880 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4940 yuan/ton (+0) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The production gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC is -252 yuan/ton (-231), and that of ethylene - based PVC is -489 yuan/ton (-10). The export profit is 6.9 dollars/ton (-2.1) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [3]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [3]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2481 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 19 yuan/ton (+21) [3]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% is 1310 yuan/ton (+10) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 765.8 yuan/ton (+40.0) [4]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [4]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [4]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The operation rate has increased significantly, and new production capacity is being gradually put into production, leading to an expected increase in output and high supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, with enterprises purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Export performance is affected by policies and the rainy season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high. The 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Cost: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are relatively stable, providing some cost support [5]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation rate is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [5]. - Demand: Alumina operation is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Non - aluminum demand remains weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and downstream enterprises may stock up in advance [5]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is neutral, and the V09 - 01 inter - period reverse spread is recommended [6]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to wait and see [6].

1. PVC, Caustic Soda Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, the overall demand has performed well recently, but there are expectations of increased supply in the future, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement situation of alumina enterprises [5]. - For PVC, the supply - side pressure is increasing, downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the positive impact of coking coal on PVC prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda also remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton. The market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4910 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The price of SH2601 increased by 41 yuan/ton to 2636 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.6% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate on August 8 was 89.1%, an increase of 1.7% compared to August 1. The total operating rate of PVC was 77.8%, an increase of 6.1% compared to August 1. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.3% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the operating rate of the alumina industry was 82.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to August 1. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remained unchanged at 85%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry was 59.3%, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 1. The operating rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 32.1%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 36.9% [4][5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China was 219,000 tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to July 31. The total social inventory of PVC was 481,000 tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to July 31 [5]. 2. Polyolefin Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the inventory accumulation expectation turns into a flat - inventory expectation. The downstream operating rate is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season. The overall valuation is neutral, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to take profit on the short positions established at 7200 - 7300 around 7000 and continue to hold LP01 [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of L2601 was 7389 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to August 11. The closing price of PP2509 was 7091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to August 11 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, PP maintenance decreased, and the supply pressure of PE also increased. The downstream operating rate of PP/PE was at a low level, and the social inventory was accumulating, but the downstream raw material inventory had been digested to a relatively low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of PE was 515,000 tons, an increase of 19.09% compared to the previous period; the enterprise inventory of PP was 587,000 tons, an increase of 3.95% compared to the previous period [10]. 3. Crude Oil Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, driven by geopolitics and supply - demand fundamentals. The market is cautious. In the short term, oil prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and expand the 10 - 11/12 month spreads [13]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 13, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to August 12. The price of WTI crude oil was 63.16 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.02% compared to August 12 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US Department of Energy has raised the expected supply surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, increasing supply pressure. Seasonal demand is weakening, and gasoline and diesel consumption is gradually declining, suppressing the upside of oil prices [13]. 4. Methanol Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inland maintenance of methanol is expected to peak at the beginning of August. Currently, production is at a high level year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the basis is stable. In August, imports are still relatively high, and downstream demand is weak due to low profits. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices in 01 contracts after the near - end contracts weaken significantly [19][20]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of MA2601 was 2496 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to August 11. The closing price of MA2509 was 2391 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to August 11 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of methanol was 29.3688 (unit not specified), a decrease of 9.50% compared to the previous period; the port inventory was 925,000 tons, an increase of 14.48% compared to the previous period [18]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic upstream methanol enterprises was 73.17%, an increase of 2.28% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid enterprises was 89.8%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous period [19]. 5. Urea Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weak and volatile trend of the urea futures market is driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. High supply pressure persists, and industrial and agricultural demand is weak. Although exports are progressing in an orderly manner, they cannot offset the domestic supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate around the 1700 - 1720 range in the short term [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 11, the price of Shandong small - particle urea decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea on August 8 was 192,100 tons, an increase of 1.05% compared to August 7. The weekly output of domestic urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% compared to August 1 [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the weekly inventory of domestic urea factories was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the previous period; the weekly inventory of domestic urea ports was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous period [27]. 6. Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. The upward rebound drive is insufficient, but the downward space is also limited. PX11 is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. The basis is running weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high prices [30]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is recommended to lightly buy on dips around 4400 yuan/ton for EGO9 [30]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton for PF10 [30]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The inventory is gradually decreasing, and the processing fee has support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy the processing fee on dips in the short term [30]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of POY150/48 was 6730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of PX futures 2601 was 6712 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to August 11 [30]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian PX was 73.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of PTA was 75.3%, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period [30]. 7. Pure Benzene - Styrene Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decrease in August, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward rebound space is limited. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [34]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply remains high, and there are expectations of some device maintenance. The downstream EPS has reduced production due to high inventory. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. EB09 is expected to fluctuate between 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended near the upper limit [34]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of CFR China pure benzene was 755 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 11. The price of styrene in East China was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 11 [34]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to August 4; the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to August 4 [34]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 76.0%, a decrease of 1.3% compared to August 1; the operating rate of styrene was 77.7%, a decrease of 1.2% compared to August 1 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]

烧碱产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) 10 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 2502 | | | 74145 | -10407 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -19342 | | | 147625 | -51599 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) 41 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2636 | | | 2722 | 44 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19342 | -3349 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | | 890 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | | -2 | -10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of PVC is large, with production expected to rise due to restart of previous maintenance and new capacity. Demand is weak, with low downstream product start - up and reduced export orders. Social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and cost - side support is weak. For烧碱, the upstream supply is high, and there is short - term rigid demand support from the alumina industry. The profit of chlor - alkali has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 5010 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 150 yuan/ton (- 17), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 37). The East China calcium carbide method spot price is 4860 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method spot price is 4900 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The price of semi - coke is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 252 yuan/ton (- 231), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 489 yuan/ton (- 10), and the PVC export profit is 8.8 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 33.7 tons (- 0.8), the social inventory of PVC is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate of PVC is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method start - up rate of PVC is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall start - up rate of PVC is 77.75% (+4.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (- 2.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of SH futures main contract is 2492 yuan/ton (+46), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (- 46). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 645.8 yuan/ton (- 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 483.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 85.10% (+1.20%). The start - up rate of alumina is 85.73% (+0.15%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: The overall start - up has increased significantly month - on - month due to the return of previous maintenance and production resumption, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, so the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still large [3]. - **Demand**: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3]. - **Inventory and Cost**: PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high. The calcium carbide price is weak, and the ethylene price is mainly stable, so the cost - side support of PVC is still weak [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: The upstream start - up has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period, and enterprises have little willingness to reduce production due to profit support. Although the start - up in Shandong is also at a high level, some local enterprises have reduced their device loads, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the start - up may decline slightly in the later period [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of alumina is good, the start - up continues to rise, and the delivery volume of the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The start - up of non - aluminum sectors has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of liquid chlorine continues to be weak, the cost support of caustic soda is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell for hedging. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread of V09 - 01. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Inter - variety**: None [4].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The continuous inventory build-up and delivery game have led to a short-term decline in the futures price of caustic soda. The caustic soda 2509 contract dropped from a high of 2,757 yuan/ton on July 24th to a minimum of 2,412 yuan/ton, mainly affected by three factors: the return of production capacity after the peak maintenance period, the rebound of liquid chlorine prices, and the increase in warehouse receipt registrations [2][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Entering late August, autumn routine maintenance is expected to cause a phased decline in caustic soda production. Non-aluminum demand is expected to enter the peak season in September, and the downstream operating rate needs to be tracked. For alumina demand, the alkali preparation demand driven by alumina production in the second half of the year is expected to decline, but the daily alkali consumption of new plants still supports demand. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Given the pressure of warehouse receipts and the inventory build-up trend, there is great uncertainty in going long. The approaching peak maintenance period and the expectation of the non-aluminum demand peak season may limit the downside space of the futures price. The operating range of the main caustic soda contract SH509 is 2,350 - 2,600 yuan/ton [3][20]. Group 3: Specific Data - As of August 8th, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 833,000 tons, a new high this year, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 85.1%. The subsidy for liquid chlorine narrowed from -550 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, driving the chlor-alkali profit from negative to positive, reaching a maximum of 352 yuan/ton. On August 1st, 388 new warehouse receipts were registered, causing the SH2509 contract to decline significantly, the futures premium to turn into a discount, and the 9 - 1 spread to fall to a minimum of -133 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Maintenance Schedule - Multiple companies in different regions have maintenance plans from July to October, including full stops, partial stops, and semi - load rotation maintenance. For example, Dongming Petrochemical in East China stopped for about 40 days of maintenance on July 31st, and Yantai Wanhua in East China plans to start semi - load rotation maintenance from mid - August to late September [23].