1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous supply - side reform, the problems faced by the non - ferrous sector were much smaller than those of the black sector [2][6] - The 656th Document established the "ceiling" for electrolytic aluminum production capacity, ending the dilemma of continuous growth despite repeated regulations [3][38] - Compared with the black sector, the supply - demand balance of the non - ferrous metal industry is relatively healthy, and strategic resources are being reserved by accumulating intermediate inventories [4][49] - The industry prosperity of the non - ferrous metal demand side varies, and the emerging economy has a higher driving force for non - ferrous metals than traditional industries [5][75] - It is less likely to launch a new round of supply - side reform in the non - ferrous sector due to its relatively healthy supply - demand balance, strategic nature, and complex and dispersed industrial chain [106] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Reform Background and Motivation - The current market's attention to potential supply - side reform is due to over - supply of industrial products, weakening external demand caused by trade frictions, and the call for anti - "involution - style" price cuts. Similar problems led to the 2015 supply - side reform [8] - In the 2015 supply - side reform, industrial product prices (PPI) declined for 54 consecutive months, and over - capacity seriously squeezed industrial enterprises' profit margins. Currently, over - capacity is spreading to the middle and lower reaches [8][12] - External economic downturn led to a decline in China's exports in 2015, and trade protectionism in developed economies and competition from low - cost countries further worsened China's foreign trade environment [18][19] 3.2 Comparison between Non - ferrous and Black Sectors - From 2012 - 2016, the non - ferrous sector was more prosperous than the black sector, with relatively stable capacity utilization in non - ferrous smelting and rolling industries. However, non - ferrous metal prices were under pressure, dragging down enterprise profit growth [20][28] 3.3 Factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In 2017, factors such as enterprise capital expenditure, emerging industries (new energy vehicles, 5G, semiconductors), and real - estate recovery driven by shantytown renovation monetization and overseas economic recovery boosted non - ferrous metal demand [30][37] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Reform - Before setting the 4500 - million - ton production capacity ceiling in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum industry had experienced six rounds of "failed" regulations. The 656th Document established the ceiling and launched supply - side reform, including measures such as determining the ceiling, setting energy and environmental thresholds, and optimizing production capacity layout [38][40][42] - Compared with the "one - size - fits - all" approach in the black sector, electrolytic aluminum production restrictions are more "seasonal" and "refined", mainly concentrated in the heating season and becoming more precise over time [46] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance of the Non - ferrous Sector - The capacity utilization rate of non - ferrous smelting and rolling has been stable at around 80%. The non - ferrous sector emphasizes the logic of "resource is king", with the intermediate smelting end yielding profits to the upstream mining end. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different profit performances due to downstream demand [59] - The non - ferrous sector shows a pattern where the upstream is stronger than the middle and downstream, and refined metal inventories are accumulating. This is related to the high import dependence of non - ferrous minerals in China, and China reserves strategic resources by expanding intermediate inventories [60][68][74] 3.6 Demand - side Characteristics of Non - ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous sector has more diverse intermediate products and a more dispersed downstream demand compared to the black sector, which increases the difficulty of supply - side reform [77] - The demand from the power industry for non - ferrous metals accounts for a high and increasing proportion. The demand for copper in the power industry is expected to grow by 6.5 - 9%, and the demand for aluminum in the power industry is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025 [80][85][86] - The real - estate sector's demand for non - ferrous metals is differentiated. While the real - estate market is generally weak, policies have promoted the demand for copper in the power and home appliance industries, leading to a differentiation strategy of "long non - ferrous, short black" [87] - The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have become new drivers of non - ferrous metal demand. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.3%, and the global and Chinese new - added photovoltaic installations are expected to drive the demand for non - ferrous metals [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly running [1] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly running [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for steel is gradually weakening, and the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand situation in the upcoming consumption off - season. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in weak consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and price cuts, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and production, and are expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures rebounded slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 2978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The spot price rose steadily, and the trading volume increased. The national rebar production decreased, the inventory decline expanded, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the short - term is expected to be in weak consolidation [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rebounded, closing at 707 yuan/ton. The port spot price rose. The global shipment volume decreased slightly, the blast furnace start - up rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills decreased. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 759 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. The spot price in some areas decreased. The supply is loose, the downstream procurement is postponed, and the trading is light. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 1332 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price in the port market decreased. The second round of price cuts was implemented, the demand is weakening, and the inventory of some coking enterprises is overstocked. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5530 yuan/ton, down 1.5%. The market price decreased in some areas. The cost support is weak, the terminal demand is weak, and the production is expected to increase in Inner Mongolia. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5322 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The production in the main producing areas is decreasing, but it has no obvious support for the price. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 7.0, up 7.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also shows different trends, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 142.0, up 6.0 [4] - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of various varieties have different degrees of increase or decrease, like the Shanghai rebar spot price rising 20 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [4] - **Profits and spreads**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have changed, such as the rebar disk profit being 102.5, up 3.2 [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][9][14][17] - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][31][33][35][36][39] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43][45] - **Rebar profits**: There are profit trend charts of rebar including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience weak oscillations as downstream demand has reached a temporary peak [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to trade in a low - level range due to the anticipation of a negative feedback mechanism [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation as the main production areas resume operations, while silicomanganese is likely to be weak due to the pressure on port ore transactions [2][12]. - Coke is at the bottom - end of the oscillation after the second round of price cuts, and coking coal is also at the bottom - end of the oscillation [2][16]. - Thermal coal is expected to have a weak oscillation as coal mine inventories increase [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 707.0 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The previous day's position was 716,254 lots, down 5,254 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the basis and spreads showing different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26.2755 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year, and the total profit was 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 1,333,951 lots and a position of 2,441,388 lots, up 41,409 lots. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with a trading volume of 452,531 lots and a position of 1,537,114 lots, up 23,289 lots. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Shanghai Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 1.55 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons. In April 2025, China's steel exports were 10.462 million tons, basically the same as the previous month; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, the global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.3%, pig iron decreased by 0.4%, and steel increased by 1.9% [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar is 0 (neutral), and hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon futures, the 2507 contract closed at 5322 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5226 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese futures, the 2506 contract closed at 5492 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5530 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various price differences also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 29, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some areas. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps in July 2025, with an increase in the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Henan set the price of silicomanganese at 5550 yuan/ton for a purchase volume of 5000 tons [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Ferrosilicon is - 1 (weak bearish), and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak bearish) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 759 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 2.57%, with a trading volume of 709,680 lots and a position of 540,328 lots, up 13,462 lots. For coke futures J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 28,870 lots and a position of 56,432 lots, down 1050 lots. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding fluctuations [16]. - **Price and Position Information**: Northern port coking coal quotes are provided, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on May 29 shows price changes. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long position of coking coal JM2509 increased by 12,175 lots, and the short position increased by 8353 lots; the long position of coke J2509 increased by 50 lots, and the short position decreased by 810 lots [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke is - 1 (weak bearish), and coking coal is - 1 (weak bearish) [18]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract of thermal coal had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 18 lots and a position of 0 lots [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: Southern port quotes for foreign - traded thermal coal and domestic production area quotes for thermal coal are provided. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2506 contract both decreased by 0 lots [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on closing prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and spot prices of different log contracts and varieties are provided, along with daily and weekly price change rates [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [26].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][15][24][38][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 22 to May 28, 2025, shows a constant value of - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 28, 2025, was - 5.39 yuan/ton. The fuel oil basis and the crude oil/asphalt ratio also have corresponding data from May 22 to May 28 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of black metal products including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are given [25] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on May 28, 2025, are provided [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are shown [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures are provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 螺纹钢 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 10合约基差（右轴） 10合约收盘价 现货螺纹价格 -150 -50 50 150 250 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 10-01合约价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 5：成交量与持仓量（手） 图 6：全国贸易商成交量（吨） 五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 | | | 黑色金属早报 | | 2025/5/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 煤焦钢矿报价情况 | | | | | 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 折交割品 | | | 加拿大CFR | 1 65 | 0 | | | | 山西柳林低硫 | 1000 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西柳林中硫 | 1030 | 0 | | | | 蒙5精煤(乌不浪口) | 920 | -50 | | | | 主焦煤(唐山) | 1100 | 0 | 941 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for black metals is pessimistic, with weak demand expectations and a gloomy market atmosphere. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market is influenced by factors such as seasonal demand changes, supply - side capacity, and policy expectations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Steel futures showed an inertial decline. In the off - season, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to fall but at a slower pace. The supply pressure remained high, and the negative feedback expectation kept fermenting. The downstream industries had poor performance, and the demand outlook was pessimistic. The short - term downward trend may be followed by increased volatility [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment was in normal fluctuation, and the domestic arrival volume was expected to rise. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the molten iron production decreased slightly. The iron ore supply - demand relationship faced marginal weakening pressure, and the ore price was expected to show a weak oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices continued to decline, with the second - round price cut fully implemented. The molten iron production decreased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coke futures were basically at par, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also continued to fall. The coal mine production was still at a high level, and the spot auction market weakened. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory pressure accumulated rapidly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coking coal futures were at a significant discount, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated at a low level. After the leading steel mill's tender, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, the weekly output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and the price was weak due to the overall black metal market [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. The molten iron production decreased slightly, the export demand was stable, and the secondary demand remained high. The supply decreased, the market transaction was average, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price was weak due to the overall black metal market [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black metal market is currently in a state of weak price drive, with a strong expectation of oversupply. The core logic of the black metal sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply and the upstream's concession to the downstream, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. Different sub - sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [4][5][7] Summary by Related Sections Steel - On May 27, the prices of both far - month and near - month steel futures contracts were down. The spot trade volume of building materials increased slightly, but the market was still weak. The static supply - demand structure is healthy, but there is a strong oversupply expectation. The price drive is weak, and the time for production reduction may be postponed. The idea of rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profit is still necessary [2][4] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the second round of price cuts for coking coal and coke is expected to land soon. The port metallurgical coke trade price and coking coal prices are falling. In the futures market, the black chain index continues to decline. The trading logic is that the upstream concedes to the downstream due to loose furnace material supply. A short - selling strategy is maintained, but attention should be paid to the cost and price relationship at the current position [5] Ferroalloys - There have been many production cut news for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon is in short supply and the rebound may continue, while silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate. The cost is expected to decline slightly. The pattern of overseas and domestic export rush will continue to drive actual demand. Previous long positions in ferrosilicon and long - short spreads of double - silicon can be held [7] Iron Ore - The market is less sensitive to the news of production restrictions. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate slightly in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the steel mills' spontaneous production reduction may occur, and it is more likely that steel is weaker than iron ore [8] Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 27, the far - month contracts of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.31% to - 1.70%. The near - month contracts also declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.12% to - 1.76%. The cross - month spreads and various spreads/price ratios/profits also changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined on May 27. The basis of different varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].