1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of the US Treasury bond market, US macro - economic indicators, and major asset classes. It shows that the US Treasury bond yields fluctuated this week due to economic data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The US macro - economy shows mixed signals in different sectors, with some indicators improving while others still showing weakness. Major asset classes also have diverse performances across different regions and types [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 美债利率本周回顾 - This week (January 9 - January 16, 2026), US Treasury bond yields generally increased, with the curve rising. Except for the ultra - long - term bonds, interest rates rose significantly. In the first half of the week, yields declined due to economic data and moderate CPI. In the second half, housing sales, unemployment data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence pushed yields up again [1][11]. - After the Fed received a subpoena from Trump, Powell countered, and the Fed's tough attitude eased investors' panic. The market doesn't think Trump will substantially undermine the current Fed. Trump's "pressure" is more likely a warning for the next - term chairman. However, this move may have the opposite effect, and there are also divisions within the Republican Party [2][12]. - The 3 - year US Treasury bill auction was robust, with a bid - to - cover ratio higher than the previous value. The 10 - year and 30 - year auctions were relatively weak [17]. 3.2 美国宏观经济指标点评 - **景气指数**: In 2025, the US new home sales market showed signs of recovery, but there were regional disparities and inventory pressures. The existing home sales in December 2025 reached a three - year high. Retail sales in November 2025 rebounded, mainly driven by holiday consumption. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in January 2026 reached a new high since September last year, indicating a marginal improvement in regional manufacturing demand [3][23]. - **就业**: As of the week of January 10, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, reaching the second - lowest level in two years. However, the labor market shows a weak balance of "low lay - offs and low hiring", and the employment growth remains sluggish [24][25]. - **通胀**: In 2025, the US PPI and CPI showed different trends. The PPI was affected by energy prices and service - end price dynamics. The CPI showed a stage of stability in December 2025, with some categories' price increases slowing down and others accelerating [26]. 3.3 大类资产点评 - **债券**: German bond yields declined, while Japanese bond yields remained high due to market expectations of an interest - rate hike [4][28]. - **权益**: Asian stock markets generally strengthened, while European and American markets were under pressure [4][29]. - **大宗**: Metals and digital assets led the gains, while agricultural products and some industrial raw materials faced pressure [4][30]. - **外汇**: Asian currencies were generally under pressure, while the Russian ruble rose [4][32]. 3.4 市场跟踪 The report provides various charts to track the performance of global major economies' government bond interest rates, stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [33][44][51][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing U.S. fiscal deficit and the implications of China's decision to stop purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the need for the U.S. to find new major creditors by 2026 [1][18]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Holdings - As of November 2025, Japan and the UK, among other countries, have significantly increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan adding $2.6 billion in a single month, bringing its total to $1.2 trillion, while the UK purchased $10.6 billion, surpassing China to become the second-largest holder at $888.5 billion [5][9]. - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for nine consecutive months, dropping to $682.6 billion, down from its previous position as the largest holder [3][5]. - Despite the total foreign holdings of U.S. debt reaching a historical high of $9.36 trillion, this only represents 24.24% of the total U.S. debt of $38.6 trillion, a decrease from 26% [9][21]. Group 2: China's Strategic Shift - China has maintained a strong strategic position by reducing its U.S. Treasury bond holdings to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with a reduction of $6.1 billion in November 2024 [13][19]. - Concurrently, China has been increasing its gold reserves, which have grown for 14 consecutive months, reaching a total of 74.15 million ounces, indicating a shift towards a more secure asset [13][25]. - The article suggests that China's actions reflect a deliberate strategy to avoid being vulnerable to U.S. monetary policy changes, emphasizing the importance of holding tangible assets over foreign debt [19][25]. Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year reached $602 billion, marking the second-highest deficit on record, with a significant increase of $58 billion in December 2025 alone [18][21]. - Interest payments accounted for 20% of total U.S. government expenditures in a short span, highlighting the financial strain and the need for lower interest rates to reduce fiscal costs [21][23]. - The article critiques the reliance on foreign creditors to manage the growing debt, suggesting that this approach only provides temporary relief rather than a sustainable solution [23][25].

Key Points - The article announces the extension of tax policies for foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market, specifically exempting corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [2] - The exemption does not apply to bond interest income related to institutions or places established by foreign entities within China [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a temporary exemption from corporate income tax and value-added tax on interest income from bonds obtained by foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [1] - The exemption does not apply to interest income from bonds related to institutions or places established by foreign entities within China [1] - Recent activities include the issuance of 1.5 billion yuan panda bonds by Henkel Group in the interbank bond market, and Barclays Bank initiating a 4 billion yuan panda bond issuance, indicating foreign capital's recognition of RMB bond assets [1] Group 2 - Foreign institutional investors are collectively optimistic about Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 4.8% growth in China's real GDP for 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5% [2] - The MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index are expected to rise by 20% and 12% respectively within the year, with a potential 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027 [2] - UBS forecasts an increase in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth, corporate revenue increases, supportive policies, and the promotion of "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 3 - China is intensifying efforts to stabilize foreign investment, with a national foreign investment work conference held on January 14-15, 2026, emphasizing the promotion of foreign investment and the creation of an "Invest in China" brand [3] - The "Encouragement of Foreign Investment Industry Catalog (2025 Edition)" will expand to 1,679 items, guiding foreign investment towards advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions, Northeast China, and Hainan [3] - Investments in these areas will benefit from incentives related to tariffs, land use, and taxes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced a temporary exemption from corporate income tax and value-added tax for foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [1] Group 1 - The exemption applies to interest income from bonds obtained by foreign institutions in the domestic bond market [1] - The scope of the exemption does not include interest income from bonds related to institutions or places established by foreign entities within the country [1]

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's five-year government bond auction was weaker than the 12-month average, influenced by increasing political risks affecting investor subscription willingness [1] - The bid cover ratio for this auction was 3.08 times, lower than the previous auction's 3.17 times and below the 12-month average of 3.54 times [1] - The auction coincided with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's consideration of an early election, leading to a wave of bond sell-offs, reminiscent of the "Kishida trade" that previously caused a plunge in the yen [1] Group 2 - The yield on the five-year government bond has risen to 1.615%, marking a new high since the introduction of this maturity in 2000 [1] - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to wait until June to raise interest rates, but the continued weakness of the yen may increase pressure for earlier action [1] - Former BOJ policy board member Makoto Sakurai suggested that the central bank could raise rates as early as April, with the market currently pricing in the first rate hike for July [1]

◎记者 张欣然 步入2026年，债券市场情绪明显变化。尽管资金面整体仍维持宽松，但机构对全年债市走势的判断偏谨 慎，"区间运行"等预期逐步成为共识。 展望全年债市，多位业内人士对上海证券报记者表示，在单边行情难以持续的背景下，投资者配置心态 更趋谨慎，久期选择明显降低，对债市的"押注"也将转向精细化的策略博弈。 在预期趋同、配置趋谨慎的背景下，机构对2026年债市运行特征的判断也逐步清晰。多位业内人士认 为，全年债券市场更可能呈现区间震荡、结构分化的运行格局。 开年预期高度趋同 从开年交易情况看，债市变化首先体现在配置行为的转向上。尽管流动性环境依然宽松，但投资者在配 置和久期选择上明显转向防守。 债市不再是资金配置的唯一选择。自2024年9月底以来，伴随权益市场阶段性回暖、黄金等资产表现走 强，市场赚钱效应逐步扩散至多类资产，债券资产在配置中的稀缺性明显下降。 一位来自华东地区公募基金的固收投资经理对上海证券报记者表示，前几年不少资金没什么选择，只能 集中配置债券，而目前权益市场和商品资产均有良好表现，债券不再是唯一选项，机构自然会重新评估 配置性价比。 围绕2026年债市走势，市场判断正趋于统一。国金证券 ...

Economic Overview - The economic divergence has become more pronounced since Q3, with rapid declines in investment and retail sales, while social financing, exports, and industrial value-added still maintain robust growth [1] - Retail sales growth for categories previously benefiting from subsidies, such as home appliances, has sharply decreased from over 50% in May 2025 to around -20% in October 2025, indicating significant policy impact on data [1] Financial Sector Insights - Excluding government bonds, social financing has shown a year-on-year decline, with current RMB loans and social financing (excluding government bonds) both dropping below 7% [1] - The structure of social financing supply is changing, with bonds contributing to 40% of new social financing in 2025, a significant increase from the historical contribution of no more than 30% [1] Bond Market Analysis - The supply-demand pressure in the long bond market is expected to become evident in Q1 2026, with a concentrated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds before the Two Sessions [2] - A total net financing scale of 3 trillion yuan from special refinancing and local government bonds may further strain current market regulatory indicators [2] - Q1 or Q2 2026 is anticipated to present an excellent bond allocation opportunity, with strong attractiveness of bond yields compared to other asset classes [2] Long-term Bond Outlook - The outlook for long bonds in 2026 is not overly pessimistic, as new policies may emerge to address supply-demand imbalances and support interest rate normalization [3] - The ten-year government bond yield is currently close to the reasonable range of 1.75%-1.85%, indicating relatively low risk at this absolute level [3] - The ten-year government bond has shown the smallest yield adjustment in 2025, reflecting its strong policy significance and long-term allocation value [3] Investment Strategy - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted for its core value, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange ten-year government bond index and offering high liquidity [4] - The first or second quarter of 2026 is identified as the optimal allocation timing for the ten-year government bond, which is suitable for long-term investment and liquidity management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges characterized by high volatility, low yield space, and thin returns, leading to a complex environment for investment institutions [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced extreme fluctuations, with a notable decline in interest rates compared to the previous year, resulting in a challenging investment landscape [3][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield started at 1.6% and saw rapid increases, peaking around 1.92% in September, reflecting economic recovery expectations and supply pressures [7][8]. - By the end of 2025, the bond market displayed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds rising while short-term bonds showed slight declines, indicating a steepening yield curve [8][10]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions exhibited varied investment behaviors, with large commercial banks and insurance companies showing strong buying interest, while others like city commercial banks and securities firms were net sellers [10][11]. - The investment strategies of institutions shifted towards cautious approaches, focusing on cost reduction and risk management amid a declining attractiveness of the bond market compared to equities and commodities [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is anticipated to open with a 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.85%, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter [12][13]. - The market is closely monitoring monetary policy adjustments, with expectations for a gradual approach to easing, influenced by economic recovery goals and structural inflation concerns [14][15]. - Institutions are preparing for a continued volatile environment, with strategies focusing on maintaining trading intensity for excess returns while managing costs effectively [15].

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges, characterized by high volatility and low yield environments, leading to increased operational difficulties for investment institutions [1][2] - The market dynamics shifted towards short-term sentiment driven by external factors rather than fundamental analysis, reflecting intense institutional competition and pressure for returns [1][2] - The differentiation in investment strategies among various types of institutions became more pronounced, with some actively seeking opportunities while others adopted a more cautious approach [6][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced a notable decline in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping nearly 1 percentage point compared to the end of 2024, leading to a correction phase [2] - By the end of 2025, the 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, reaching a high of approximately 1.92% in September before stabilizing towards year-end [2][3] - The yield curve showed steepening trends, with long-term bonds like the 30-year government bond rising by 8 basis points in December, while shorter maturities saw slight declines [3] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions displayed varied levels of engagement in the bond market, with large commercial and policy banks showing strong net buying activity, while others like city commercial banks and securities firms were net sellers [6][7] - The net buying figures for November 2025 indicated a stark contrast, with large banks net buying 1,744 billion and insurance companies 2,705 billion, while securities firms and funds were significantly reducing their positions [6][7] - The behavior of institutions was influenced by year-end performance assessments, with some locking in profits while others adjusted their portfolios for the upcoming year [3][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is expected to open with a 10-year government bond yield of around 1.85%, with potential for policy easing anticipated in the first quarter [8][9] - There is a consensus among market participants that monetary policy may become more accommodative, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2026, although the timing and extent remain uncertain [9][10] - The market is likely to continue experiencing volatility, with institutions preparing for a challenging environment while seeking to optimize their strategies for better performance [11][12]