| | 1、巴西植物油行业协会Abiove预测该国2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.785亿吨，高于 | | --- | --- | | | 去年的1.718亿吨。2、印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，印尼2025年1-9月生物柴油消费量 | | 行业 | 为1057万公升，较去年同期的961万公升增加近10%。3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数 | | 信息 | 据，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加10.77%，其中马来半岛增加4.54%，沙巴增加 | | | 21.99%，沙捞越增加16.69%，婆罗洲增加20.45%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨，最新出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月16日的一周，美国大豆 | | | 出口检验量为1,474,354吨，高于市场预期区间，较一周增长45%。巴西新季大豆播种有序推进， | | | 根据AgRural数据截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到24%，高于前一周的14%和去年同 | | | 期的18%。近期市场对于中美贸易关系缓和预期升温，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，市 | | | ...

专题报告 2025-10-23 斯小伟 农产品分析师 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 油脂：暂时观望，跟踪产量信息 报告要点： 马来、印尼棕榈油产量超预期压制棕榈油行情表现，特别是印尼若维持当前高产量，10、11 月高产季节产地或共累库 110-170 万吨，但在 12 月至次年 4 月的减产季节，产地或将去库 220 万吨。棕榈油短期因供应偏大累库的现实可能会在四季度及明年一季度迎来反转，如果印尼当 前的高产量不能持续去库时间点可能会更快到来。但若印尼一直维持近期的高产记录，棕榈油 则会继续弱势。策略上，建议暂时观望，等待更为明确的产量信号。 农产品研究|油脂油料 一、马来、印尼棕榈油产量超预期压制棕榈油行情表现 印尼当前棕榈油产量处于近年最高水平。据 GAPKI 7 月棕榈油月报数据显示，截至 7 月底印尼 棕榈油库存录得 253 万吨环比增加 3.8 万吨，印尼 7 月棕榈油出口达 353.7 万吨环比 6 月下降 7 万吨，7 月棕榈油产量达 560.6 万吨环比增加 31.7 万吨，单月产量创近十年最高水平。叠加 马 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/10/22 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Core Insights - The event "Stabilizing Enterprises and Securing Agriculture: Futures Services for SMEs in the Vegetable Oil Sector" was successfully held in Guangzhou, focusing on opportunities and challenges in the vegetable oil industry [1] - Over 170 representatives from the vegetable oil industry gathered, indicating significant industry interest and engagement [1] Group 1: Expert Insights and Strategies - The event featured industry experts discussing market supply and demand, providing practical strategies for risk management [2] - Key presentations included an analysis of domestic and international vegetable oil market trends and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Experts emphasized the importance of using futures tools for risk management and enhancing industry collaboration to navigate market changes [2][3] Group 2: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable forum addressed critical issues in the vegetable oil sector, focusing on opportunities and challenges amid global trade tensions [3] - Experts advised SMEs to proactively use futures tools to manage price volatility and suggested a combination strategy of "small steps and focused phases" to mitigate future uncertainties [3] - Discussions highlighted the need for vigilance regarding potential cost increases in packaging oil raw materials in 2026 [3] Group 3: Commitment to Health and Industry Development - Yihai Kerry Group showcased its dual commitment to "serving the real economy and empowering health," aligning with national health initiatives [4][5] - The company has a history of innovation in healthy eating, continuously expanding its product offerings to meet health demands [5] - The event served as a platform for SMEs to connect, share knowledge, and enhance confidence in navigating the complex market environment [6]

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至10月18日，巴西大豆播种率为21.7%，上周 | | --- | --- | | | 为11.1%，去年同期为17.6%，五年均值为27.7%。2、美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年10月16日 | | 行业 | 当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1474354吨，前一周修正后为1017172吨，初值为994008吨。2024年 | | 信息 | 10月17日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为2549979吨。本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为 | | | 5537802吨，上一年度同期8013348吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。美国压榨数据表现超预期，减轻了市场对于美豆需求的担忧。根 | | | 据NOPA数据显示，9月份大豆压榨量1.97亿蒲，环比增加4.24%，同比增加11.6%，并创下有记录 | | | 以来的第四个月度高点，也是历史同期最高纪录，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，场关 | | | 注10月末APEC中美两国元首会面情况，国内供应充足使得短期连粕上方仍面临较大压力。 | | | 油脂：夜盘菜棕油震荡收跌，豆油震荡收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main futures price of soybean oil has been fluctuating and adjusting this week. China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate, with sufficient supply and a weak current situation. In the fourth quarter, which is the traditional consumption peak season for soybean oil, and as it is currently the most cost - effective oil, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center of soybean oil is expected to move up slightly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean oil, with support levels at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and pressure levels at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures have been weakening. The market is worried about the possible consultation on the import control policy of Canadian rapeseed between the two countries, which suppresses the rapeseed oil futures price. The policy expectation mainly affects the market sentiment. The basis price in the spot market has risen slightly today, showing a divergence from the futures price. The inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing, and enterprises are strongly willing to support prices. The basis of rapeseed oil remains stable, and the market is in a stalemate. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the unilateral operation of the 01 contract or buy options to protect existing positions. The support level of the main 01 contract of rapeseed oil is 9800 - 9820 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10020 - 10050 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil has been weakly adjusting this week. The inventory pressure in the palm oil - producing areas in Southeast Asia is not large, and the inventory is expected to enter the November production - reduction season lightly. Coupled with Indonesia's test of B50, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main contract of palm oil is 9230 - 9270 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 9650 - 9680 yuan/ton [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The main contract of soybean meal futures has broken through the support level and declined. The U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeds market expectations, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions continue. The current weather in the world's major soybean - producing areas is relatively good, which is suitable for the harvest of U.S. soybeans and the sowing of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans is also insufficient. China's domestic inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, and the supply remains loose. It is advisable to lightly short the main contract of soybean meal unilaterally or consider selling out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of soybeans. The support level of the main contract of soybean meal is 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The support level of the main contract of Bean No. 2 is 3500 - 3530 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3675 - 3700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The sentiment of rapeseed meal has been weak. The market generally expects that the two countries may consult on the rapeseed trade policy. Rapeseed meal is facing the dual pressures of the seasonal consumption off - season and the squeeze of substitute varieties, and the terminal purchasing willingness is low. The continuous weakness of soybean meal also drags down rapeseed meal. It is necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and wait and see before the policy is clear. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed. The support level of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 2230 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Bean No. 1**: The futures price of Bean No. 1 has risen this week. The new - season soybeans in the Northeast market have basically completed the harvest, and the grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing. The high - protein soybeans are in short supply and the price is firm, while the low - protein soybeans have a weak price. With the concentrated listing of soybeans in the Northeast and the low valuation of Bean No. 1 and the reluctance of farmers to sell, the domestic soybean price is running strongly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of Bean No. 1. The pressure level of the 11 contract of Bean No. 1 is in the range of 4050 - 4080 yuan/ton, and the support level is in the range of 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts has remained stable over the weekend. The probability of purchasing U.S. soybeans has increased due to the new round of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased this year, and the planting cost has decreased year - on - year. Currently, the area and quantity of peanut listing are gradually increasing, with upward pressure. However, the futures price has reflected the expected increase in production, and the yield per unit in some areas of Henan is not good, so the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the purchasing dynamics of oil - pressing plants and the new - season procurement situation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices of corn and corn starch have shown a low - level oscillating trend this week. In the external market, there is a game between the harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the good export of U.S. corn, and the sowing in South America has started smoothly, so the overall futures price is expected to remain oscillating at a low level. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is progressing, and the continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. After the futures price refreshed the low point, the market has entered a new game. Considering that the new - season harvest is still in progress, the listing pressure may not be fully reflected, and the futures price is still in the process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or pay attention to the reverse spread of the 1 - 5 spread of corn. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options. The support range of the 01 contract of corn is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200 yuan/ton. The support range of the 11 contract of corn starch is 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2480 - 2500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs has been fluctuating narrowly over the weekend. Recently, the hog price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the hog - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 5:1, with significantly reduced breeding profits. Under the atmosphere of "anti - involution" to limit production capacity, the near - end slaughter of hogs has increased. The futures price of hogs has hit a new annual low. This week, the national average spot price of hogs is about 10.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. Before the festival, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly month - on - month, was at a high level year - on - year, and was higher than that in 2023. The near - end farmers are actively slaughtering, and the supply of standard hogs is loose. The price of 7 - kg piglets has fallen close to the slaughter cost. In terms of the futures price, the Sino - U.S. restart of negotiations is expected to make the agricultural product index oscillate weakly as a whole, and the futures price of hogs is currently at a premium to the spot price. The 01 contract refers to the range of 11000 - 13000 points. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost in the medium - term and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15000 points to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been generally stable with a slight weakness over the weekend. After the seasonal decline, the egg price has stabilized. Since the 10 contract is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival, the futures price has a weak follow - up to the spot price. Currently, the egg index continues to oscillate at the bottom and has reached a historical low. In October, the terminal consumption is expected to decline month - on - month, the current stocking demand has weakened, and farmers are gradually increasing the culling of laying hens, and the price of culled hens has also declined. The supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The national spot price over the weekend is about 3.00 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. Fundamentally, the current egg price is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of laying hens is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for farmers to increase the culling of laying hens to drive the reduction of production capacity. Aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract unilaterally at low prices in the short - term. Since the egg index has approached the historical low level, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in speculative trading or buy the positive spread between the 12 - 1 month contracts at low prices [9]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil 01**: The fundamental situation has not changed much, affected by the significant fluctuations of crude oil recently. The current supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 01**: The purchase of rapeseed is relatively small, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Palm 01**: The production of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, but the inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the downward space of the palm oil price is limited. The medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. It is advisable to hold long positions [12]. - **Soybean Meal 01**: The current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, with insufficient bullish driving forces. The bullish expectation lies in the continuous Sino - U.S. trade frictions. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 01**: The market is affected by the expected relaxation of trade policies and the weakening of demand. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Corn 01**: The overall pressure environment remains unchanged, with short - term rhythm disturbances. However, the harvest is still in progress, and the pressure has not been fully released. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Starch 11**: The price of corn, the cost end, is expected to face pressure, and the enterprise's inventory accumulation expectation puts pressure on the spot price. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Hogs 01**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and there are policies to reduce production capacity in the industry. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is advisable to mainly wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 12**: Affected by production capacity pressure and the expectation of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock products [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of fats and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is 0 for different shipping dates of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. Gulf. It also provides relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil shipping dates [14][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The report provides the weekly data of fats and oils, including the inventory and operating rate of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the hog market, including the spot price, breeding cost, profit, slaughter data, and other indicators [19]. - **Eggs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as the laying rate, the proportion of different sizes of eggs, the age of culled hens, and the supply of culled hens, demand - side indicators such as inventory, and profit - related indicators [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: The report provides charts of the closing price of the main contract of hogs, the closing price of the main contract of eggs, the spot price of hogs, the price of piglets, the price of white - striped pork, the spot price of eggs, the price of chicken chicks, and the price of culled hens [22][24][25]. - **Fats and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the import parity profit of palm oil, the import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of palm oil [32][33][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report provides charts of the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of soybean oil [39][40][44]. - **Peanuts**: The report provides charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit of peanuts, the weekly raw material procurement volume of some oil - pressing plants, the weekly operating rate of peanuts, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil - pressing plants, the monthly import volume of peanuts, price spreads, and basis of peanuts [46][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, import volume, consumption by deep - processing enterprises, inventory of deep - processing enterprises, ethanol processing profit, and price difference between corn and wheat of corn [50][52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price difference with corn, enterprise operating rate, inventory, price difference with flour, and weekly profit of corn starch [59][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: The report provides charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, basis, inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills, inventory of rapeseed oil, rapeseed crushing volume, domestic rapeseed crushing profit, and the delivery volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in coastal areas [64][66][68]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report provides charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in national ports, and the inventory of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills [73][75]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest,

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：三油走势分化，等待趋势性驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）印马棕榈油产地库存高位；（2）大豆油厂压榨量增加；（3）国内棕榈油和豆油库存反弹。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼B50积极推进中；（2）美国生柴RVO未落定，或视贸易摩擦结果而定；（3）国内旺季成色偏差，油脂成交量较同期偏低。 | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 国内油脂总库存有所累库，但主要原因是假期提货量减少，基于大豆油厂降压榨挺价、菜籽油厂缺少菜籽的情况，后续油脂库存预计整体走低。 | | 宏观及政策 | 观望 | （1）中美领导人会面前摩擦不断，不确定性增加；（2）印尼官方宣布B50处于道路实验中，预计明年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The September USDA report showed an increase in US soybean production, a decrease in global production, and an increase in US soybean inventory, with an overall neutral - weak report. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to soybean purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and the supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply may face uncertainty after November due to unconfirmed purchases from December to January. Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. - For rapeseed meal, domestic supply - demand changes are small. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. - In the palm oil market, this month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report. Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme. Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. - For soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage. Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on the soybean market, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production [5]. - China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply after November may be affected by unconfirmed purchases from December to January [5]. - Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand changes are small, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed [5]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also brings uncertainty to future imports [5]. - Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - This month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report [37]. - Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme [37]. - Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage [39]. - Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens [39]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil [39]. - Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. Rapeseed Oil - The current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle [40]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40].