1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillation", "oscillation with an upward bias", and "oscillation with a downward bias" [5][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - environmental impacts. It concludes that most products will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - to - medium term, with some showing a slight upward or downward bias [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Spot inventory is decreasing, and oils and fats are oscillating narrowly. - **Logic**: The commercial inventory of three major oils has decreased, but the impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices has weakened, and the supply - demand relationship in the oil market is complex. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Weather in Argentina has drawn attention, and both soybean meal and rapeseed meal have risen slightly. - **Logic**: International soybean markets face competition, and domestic pre - holiday supply and demand are both weak. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Corn purchase has restarted, and prices are oscillating within a range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are stable, and the purchase policy provides short - term support. - **Outlook**: Corn prices will oscillate, with a possible decline before the Spring Festival and a rise after [10][11] 3.1.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures contract has rebounded. - **Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. - **Outlook**: Hog prices will oscillate, with near - month contracts at a low level and far - month contracts supported by production - reduction expectations [12][13][14] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Positive capital sentiment continues, and rubber prices are rising. - **Logic**: Driven by overall commodity sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it can be treated as bullish [17][18] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the upward trend of natural rubber. - **Logic**: The improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but there is short - term pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is pressure and may need adjustment; in the medium term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [19][20] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues. - **Logic**: Domestic demand is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area. - **Outlook**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [20][21] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. - **Logic**: Global and domestic sugar supplies are both increasing. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it will oscillate with a downward bias [21] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by capital and macro factors, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are a mix of positives and negatives, and the market is currently driven by capital. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate with an upward bias [22] 3.1.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has improved, and offset paper is performing strongly. - **Logic**: Paper mills have raised prices, and the market sentiment has warmed up. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [23][24] 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: There are no significant contradictions, and it is recommended to operate within a range. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there is support at certain price levels. - **Outlook**: From January to February, supply pressure will ease marginally, and logs will mainly oscillate within a range [25] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [26][45][58] 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 6, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a positive performance, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a 5 - day increase of 0.73%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [184][186]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts rise in the night session, with non-metal building materials leading the gains, particularly PVC which increased by 2.40% [1] - Chemical products mostly rose, with methanol up by 2.11% [1] - Oilseeds and oils also experienced increases, with soybean meal rising by 0.62% [1] Group 2 - All energy products saw an increase, with LPG rising by 0.60% [1] - The black series commodities faced declines, with coking coal dropping by 2.37% [1] - Agricultural and sideline products showed mixed results, with corn starch decreasing by 0.52% [1]

Group 1 - Non-metal building materials saw significant increases, with PVC rising by 2.40% [1] - Most chemical products experienced gains, with methanol increasing by 2.11% [1] - Energy products all rose, with LPG up by 0.60% [1] Group 2 - The black series faced declines, with coking coal dropping by 2.37% [1] - Agricultural by-products showed mixed results, with corn starch decreasing by 0.52% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, and dry conditions in South America may affect the new - season soybean yield. Domestic soybean oil mills have normal operations with sufficient supply for now, while there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed waiting for Australian imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - In terms of inventory, the outlook for palm oil is to wait and see, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in short supply. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1. Rapeseed oil inventory is also declining due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. The conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday has disrupted the crude oil market, and the market may price vegetable oils from the biodiesel end, leading to price rebounds. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for release in Q1, which may cause major impacts. The Indonesian B50 story has not yet entered the speculation stage [3]. - Investment view: Wait for opportunities to go long on palm oil and go short on rapeseed oil. The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Rapeseed oil has short - term price increases due to trader pick - ups and import restrictions, but will face pressure from global rapeseed harvests after trade flows are restored. Consider short - selling if oil prices gap up due to geopolitical events [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral - bullish, affected by weather in Southeast Asia and South America, and domestic rapeseed supply situation [3]. - Demand: Under observation, influenced by Indonesia's biodiesel quota and the uncertain release time of US biodiesel RVO [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil - wait and see; soybean oil and rapeseed oil - tight [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy: Bullish, due to crude oil market disruptions and upcoming US biodiesel policy [3]. - Investment view: Long palm oil later, short rapeseed oil [3]. - Trading strategy: Short rapeseed oil unilaterally, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads, and there is no option strategy mentioned [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the spreads of different contracts such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided, which affects palm oil production [20][24][30]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [33][37][38]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [39][44]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is provided [45][50]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, inventory, import cost, and import profit are presented [51][53][55]. - **Weather and Soybean Production Situation**: Information on the future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina is provided [63][66][72]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume and CNF premium are presented [77][81]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [91]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed from different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are presented [92][94]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [99][103].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is mostly in the red, with palm oil futures experiencing fluctuations and a decline of approximately 2.16% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous month [1] - The independent inspection agency AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.2% from the previous month [1] Group 2 - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) indicated a decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield by 7.39% and a production drop of 8.07% compared to the previous month [1] - Heng Tai Futures noted a global supply surplus with high production in Indonesia and Malaysia, increasing domestic port inventories, and a lack of demand support, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand that hinders price increases [1] - Guangzhou Futures pointed out that weak palm oil exports limit price increases, while domestic market replenishment needs and geopolitical conflicts in the U.S. may temporarily affect oilseed prices, maintaining a volatile market in the medium term [2]

Group 1 - The article outlines key upcoming economic events and data releases in the U.S. and China, including the EIA natural gas inventory report and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are critical for market analysis [1][2] - It highlights the importance of the U.S. December Manufacturing PMI report, which is expected to provide insights into the manufacturing sector's performance [1] - The article mentions various inventory reports from China, including rebar production, steel mill stocks, and methanol inventories, which are essential for understanding the domestic commodity market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The article details the weekly inventory data for soybean meal and the operating rates of major oil mills in China, indicating trends in the oilseed processing industry [2] - It includes information on the USDA oilseed crushing report and the U.S. cotton on-call report, which are significant for agricultural commodity traders [2] - The article notes that reports may be delayed due to public holidays, emphasizing the need for timely updates in market analysis [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian rainstorms may cause减产, and dry conditions in South America are unfavorable for new - season soybean yields. Domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally with sufficient supply for now, while domestic rapeseed is in short supply and awaits imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - Regarding inventory, palm oil is under observation as Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1, and rapeseed oil is also gradually reducing inventory due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. Indonesia's B50 policy has funding issues and an uncertain implementation time. The US biodiesel policy's general direction is unchanged but specific policies are yet to be implemented. Policy adjustments such as delayed soybean entry and delayed Australian rapeseed commercial pressing have a short - term negative impact on the oil and fat supply rhythm [3]. - Investment view: Wait for buying opportunities in palm oil. MPOB's December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later due to seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Short - term rallies in rapeseed oil are due to trader pick - ups and blocked rapeseed imports, but it will face pressure from global rapeseed bumper harvests after trade flows are restored [3]. - Trading strategy: For arbitrage, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads; for single - side trading, short rapeseed oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 2.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Analyze supply from aspects like international weather impacts on production and domestic supply status, demand from biodiesel policies and domestic consumption, inventory from palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil inventory levels, and macro - policy from biodiesel policies and import - related policies. Provide investment views and trading strategies based on these analyses [3]. 2.2 Market Review - Present the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences between different contracts and spot price differences between different oils [5][9][14]. 2.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Show data on precipitation, temperature, and precipitation anomalies in Southeast Asia, including past, present, and future forecasts [17][19][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Display data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [30][34][35]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Provide data on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [36][41]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Differences**: Present Indian import volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, and the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [42][46]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Include data on China's palm oil import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit [48][52]. - **Weather and Soybean Production Situation**: Show data on soybean planting progress, temperature, and precipitation in Brazil and Argentina [59][62][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Provide data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, Brazilian soybean monthly export volume, and CNF premium [73][77]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Include data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production volume, daily trading volume, and inventory [87]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Show data on rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed export volume, rapeseed oil export volume, import crushing profit, domestic expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil arrival volume [88][90]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Provide data on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production volume, pick - up volume, and inventory [95][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report expects the overall trend of oils and fats to be oscillating upward, but currently lacks strong drivers. Without positive macro - capital support, the upside potential for oils and fats is limited. It also suggests paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter due to the abundant rapeseed harvest and palm oil inventory reduction [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - CBOT soybeans are unlikely to fall below 1000 cents per bushel. If the U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, it is expected to oscillate upward. Palm oil prices are unlikely to break through 10,000 yuan per ton. Rapeseed oil will be under pressure in the first half of the year. The overall trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating upward, but the upside potential is limited. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter [8]. - The main influencing factors include South American weather, trade policies, biodiesel policies, and Indonesian palm oil production [9]. 3.2 2025 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Market Review 3.2.1 Oils and Fats Unilateral Review - In 2025, the overall trend of oils and fats was slightly upward with oscillations, showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil prices were volatile, with significant drops in October. U.S. soybean oil prices rose significantly, while rapeseed oil prices fell due to abundant supply. The market was affected by various factors such as USDA reports, U.S. biodiesel policies, and geopolitical conflicts [12][15]. 3.2.2 Oils and Fats Spread Review - The spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil changed throughout the year, affected by factors such as palm oil seasonal production, global rapeseed production, and anti - dumping investigations [20]. 3.2.3 Protein Meal Unilateral Review - Protein meal prices were volatile, affected by factors such as USDA reports, U.S. tariff policies, and soybean import volumes. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at different times [23]. 3.2.4 Protein Meal Spread Review - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal mainly oscillated between 350 - 550, with significant changes in March, April, August, and November, affected by tariff policies and anti - dumping investigations [27]. 3.3 Global Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Oilseeds - Global oilseeds are in abundant supply with variety differentiation. In the 2025/26 period, the total global oilseed production is expected to be 690.255 million tons, an increase of 5.75 million tons year - on - year. The production of soybeans decreased by 4.613 million tons, while the production of rapeseed increased by 9.274 million tons [31][32]. - Global vegetable oils are expected to see a slight reduction in inventory, while the inventory of protein meals will remain largely unchanged. In the 2025/26 period, the global vegetable oil production is expected to be 233.288 million tons, an increase of 3.732 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will decrease by 0.393 million tons. The global protein meal production is expected to be 393.578 million tons, an increase of 7.538 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will remain basically the same [35][37]. 3.3.2 Soybean Series - Global soybean production is decreasing and inventory is being reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean production is 422.541 million tons, a decrease of 4.613 million tons year - on - year. The production in the U.S. decreased by 3.296 million tons, while that in Brazil increased by 3.5 million tons, and that in Argentina decreased by 2.608 million tons [41]. - U.S. soybean production decreased, and the planting cost increased slightly. The planting area decreased by 6.2 million acres, and the production decreased by 121 million bushels. The estimated planting cost in 2026 is 678.25 dollars per acre [44]. - U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, and the export proportion is decreasing. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated crushing volume is 2.555 billion bushels, an increase of 4.50% year - on - year, and the export volume is expected to decrease by 6.73 million tons [50][54]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is increasing, and the production and export volume are expected to increase. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 177 million tons, an increase of 3.29% year - on - year, and the export volume and crushing volume are expected to increase [56][66]. - Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, but the export volume increased significantly in 2024/25 due to abundant production and reduced export taxes. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous year [70][74]. 3.3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in 2025, but exports were weak, and inventory accumulated to a high level. The production from January to November was 18.4541 million tons, an increase of 3.38% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.41% [83][87]. - Indonesia's palm oil production increased in 2025, and the inventory remained low. The production from January to September was 43.34 million tons, an increase of 11.31% year - on - year. The export volume increased, and domestic consumption also increased [99][106]. 3.3.4 Rapeseed and Sunflower Seeds - Global rapeseed production is abundant, and supply is sufficient. In the 2025/26 period, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 95.273 million tons, an increase of 9.274 million tons year - on - year. The期末 inventory increased by 2.65 million tons to 12.5 million tons [110][111]. - Global sunflower seed production decreased slightly, and sunflower oil inventory continued to be reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global sunflower seed production is expected to be 51.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons year - on - year, and the sunflower oil inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 2.28 million tons [136]. 3.3.5 Oils and Fats Demand - Global vegetable oil consumption is increasing year by year. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated consumption is 227.94 million tons, with edible consumption accounting for 71.54% and industrial consumption accounting for 28.00% [141]. - India's vegetable oil demand is increasing year by year, and the import volume is expected to be large in the first quarter of 2026 due to low inventory and Ramadan stocking demand [145]. - U.S. biodiesel production and sales decreased significantly in 2025, but the production is expected to increase in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy is still uncertain, and it may increase the demand for 1.5 million tons of soybean oil [149][154]. - Indonesia's biodiesel demand is increasing, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for 3 million tons of CPO, but it is unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The implementation of B45 may increase the demand for 1.6 million tons of CPO [158][159]. - Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio is continuously increasing, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to increase significantly. If the blending ratio increases to 16% in 2026, it is expected to increase the demand for 400,000 tons of soybean oil [163]. - The production of biodiesel in the EU increased slightly, but the use of vegetable oils decreased, and the use of UCO, animal fats, and other raw materials increased [166][167]. - The global use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is continuously increasing [171]. 3.4 Domestic Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis - The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the import volume is expected to increase in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 103.78 million tons, an increase of 6.89% year - on - year. The estimated import volume in the 2025/26 period is 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year [176]. - The domestic palm oil import volume was low in 2025, and the inventory is expected to decline [187]. - The domestic rapeseed import volume decreased significantly in 2025, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 2.4479 million tons, a decrease of 57.67% year - on - year [192]. - The inventory trends of the three major oils and fats are differentiated. As of the 51st week, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, an increase of 17.90% year - on - year; the palm oil inventory was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30.01% year - on - year; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 27.65% year - on - year [197]. - The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity [201][206]. - The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is continuously being reduced [209]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Supply: Globally, focus on whether the expected abundant South American soybean harvest is realized and whether the palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia can remain high. Domestically, focus on China - U.S. and China - Canada trade policies [213][214]. - Oils and Fats Demand: Globally, the consumption of oils and fats is increasing year by year. The growth of edible consumption mainly depends on India, and the growth of biodiesel consumption mainly depends on the biodiesel policies of Indonesia, the U.S., and Brazil [216]. - Protein Meal Demand: The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by external oilseed prices [219].