Group 1: National Fertility Subsidy - The national fertility subsidy covers a wider range, with a total subsidy of 10,800 CNY per newborn over three years, compared to a median of 6,600 CNY and an average of 8,700 CNY for local subsidies[3][16] - The first-year budget for the national fertility subsidy is approximately 100 billion CNY, expected to promote the birth of about 330,000 newborns[4][16] - The short-term leverage effect of the subsidy is estimated at 0.9 times, potentially increasing to about 1.4 times in the medium to long term, with a GDP increase of 926 billion CNY in 2025[4][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[5][13] - The production PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders, new export orders, and imports fell to 49.4%, 47.1%, and 44.7% respectively[5][22] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost commodity prices, with July PPI projected to improve slightly to -3.0% year-on-year[5][29] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, indicating a potential continuation of the slowdown in infrastructure investment[6][35] - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a service PMI of 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, and new orders declining to 46.3%[6][42] - Infrastructure investment may be affected by high base effects in Q3 and Q4, requiring policy measures to mitigate the impact[6][35] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected policy changes and a potential recession in the U.S. economy[7][45] - The overall economic impact of the fertility subsidy includes direct boosts to consumer spending and indirect effects on child-rearing and housing demand[4][18]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to below the critical point after two months [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone despite a slight decline [1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors and extreme weather, with production index at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating weakened production momentum but still in the expansion zone [1][3] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains at 50.1%, supported by stable service sector performance, although the construction industry faced challenges due to extreme weather [2] - The service sector showed structural differentiation, with some areas like transportation and entertainment performing well due to summer consumption, while real estate-related activities remained weak [2] - The service industry business activity expectation index rose to 56.6%, indicating optimistic market expectations overall [2] Group 3 - New growth drivers continue to emerge, with sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining good expansion levels, supporting economic structure optimization [3] - Industries such as railway, aerospace, and electronics are showing strong production and new order indices, indicating robust growth momentum [3] - The overall economic operation remains stable, with internal demand recovering and new growth drivers countering downward pressures from old drivers [3] Group 4 - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the resilience and vitality of the economy, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges [4] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to remain effective and stable, with potential targeted policies to be introduced if significant economic fluctuations occur [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The production index for July was 50.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.5 percentage points[13] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a stronger-than-seasonal decline in demand[13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, influenced by weak real estate demand and slowing fiscal spending on infrastructure projects[27] - The services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with tourism-related sectors performing well during the summer[25] - In key industries, the equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, while the consumer goods industry PMI dropped to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points[12] Group 3: Raw Material Prices and Inventory - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March 2025[19] - The procurement index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activity due to insufficient domestic demand[21] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, suggesting continued reduction in inventory levels[21] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including timely fiscal measures[29] - A total of 69 billion yuan was allocated in July for consumer support initiatives, with additional funds expected in October[29] - Urban renewal projects are anticipated to boost investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and renovation of old neighborhoods[29]

7 月份，制造业 PMI 为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。非制造业商务活动 指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等 行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。制造业和非制造业从业人员指数比上月均略有上升， 提示企业用工景气度略有回升。 制造业PMI指数中主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格指数快速走高。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， 主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期。 7月31日，国家统计局公布7月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 7月，制造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高。主要原材料购进价格指数为51.5%，较上月上升3.1个 百分点，重回景气区间。出厂价格指数为48.3%，虽然仍处收缩区间，但较前值回升2.1个百分点。 王青认为，两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因是近期反内卷牵动市场预期，国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大 宗商品价格快速上冲。另外，受此影响，7月高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 度有所改善。 杨畅分析，从业人员指数为48.0%（前值47.9%），较上月回升0.1个百分点，仍在景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China decreased to 49.3% in July, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in manufacturing sentiment after two months of recovery [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing dropped into the contraction zone, signaling weaker demand [3]. Group 2: Production and Price Indices - Despite the decline in new orders, the production index remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, marking three consecutive months of growth [3]. - The raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, increasing by 3.1 percentage points, indicating improved price levels in the manufacturing sector [5]. - The equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI was at 50.6%, down 0.3 percentage points, maintaining expansion for six months [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The PMI data suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, production remains in the expansion zone, with optimism among manufacturers regarding future business activities, as indicated by a production expectation index of 52.6%, which increased by 0.6 percentage points [7].

Group 1 - In July, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for July were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in market demand despite continued expansion in manufacturing activities [1] - Major raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI improved to 49.5%, indicating a continued recovery in sentiment [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained PMIs above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point [4] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with strong performance in transportation and tourism-related industries [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index rose to 52.6%, showing increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector increased to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Index and Market Conditions - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The production and new orders indices for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing remained above the critical point, indicating sustained growth in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [4] - The service sector showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, while sectors related to travel and consumption experienced high activity levels [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6% due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [4] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors [6]