Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 中东冲突升级，关注商品、军工及"HALO 交易" 财信证券宏观策略周报（3.2-3.6） 2026 年 03 月 01 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 0.73 7.73 23.15 沪深 300 0.08 4.27 18.96 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。后续行情走向仍存在两点隐忧：一是海外局势动荡加剧，中东冲 突、美国关税走势均存在较大不确定性，将对市场风险偏好产生影响。二是 "日历效应"支撑作用减弱。随着春季躁动行情临近尾声、业绩披露季到来， 预计市场走势将回归基本面。长期来看，我们维持"春节后至 4 月底 A 股指 数走势将逐步回归市场内在动能，整体呈现宽幅震荡走势，双向波动幅度可 能加大，指数级别机会仍需等待"的判断，静待两会政府工作报告指引以及 4 月底 A 股业 ...

Geopolitical Impact - The recent escalation in the Middle East is expected to drive up oil and precious metal prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions[2] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transportation, poses significant risks to oil supply[4] Oil Price Projections - Brent crude oil prices are projected to exceed $80 per barrel as military actions disrupt Iranian production and shipping routes[7] - In extreme scenarios, oil prices may challenge the highs seen during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022[7] Precious Metals Outlook - Increased risk aversion from geopolitical developments is likely to push gold prices higher, although rising oil prices may complicate this trend by increasing U.S. inflation expectations[7] - The ability of gold to surpass previous highs remains uncertain and will depend on the interplay of inflation and interest rate expectations[7] Commodity Market Opportunities - The global fiscal and monetary easing, ongoing supply chain issues, and a weak U.S. dollar are expected to create favorable conditions for commodity investments in 2026[8] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to maintain strong performance, while opportunities in oil and related chemicals are also noteworthy[16] Economic Context - Major economies, including China, the U.S., and Europe, are expected to continue fiscal expansion in 2026, which historically correlates with commodity price increases[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell over 9% in 2025, and its continued weakness in 2026 is expected to support dollar-denominated commodity prices[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the metals industry, particularly focusing on non-ferrous metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Iran, are expected to drive demand for precious metals as a safe haven, while also benefiting metals with high military demand such as tungsten, titanium, and rare earths [1]. - The report emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-demand narratives and nationalism, recommending a focus on metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [1]. - Short-term recommendations include focusing on bottom metals and those experiencing accelerated price increases, alongside new materials related to technology growth [1]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 8,845.5 billion and a circulating market value of 7,741.8 billion [2]. - The non-ferrous metals index showed a weekly increase of 6.09%, ranking third among various sectors, with energy metals leading at 9.32% [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months stands at 5.5%, 54.6%, and 102.0% respectively, indicating strong growth [3]. - The report notes that the largest gainers in the non-ferrous sector include Yunnan Germanium, which saw a weekly increase of 37.77%, while the largest decliner was Haomei New Materials, with a drop of 5.15% [3]. Metal-Specific Insights - Copper production from the top 20 global mining companies is projected at 3,526 thousand metric tons for Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 10.5% decrease year-on-year [1]. - Aluminum inventories in China reached 1,157,000 tons as of February 26, 2026, marking a 265,000-ton increase from the previous year, which is a significant high for the period [1]. - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions may disrupt aluminum production in Iran, potentially leading to price increases [1][4]. Price Trends - The report indicates that silver prices have surged by 15.24% due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply constraints, while silicon metal prices have decreased by 1.24% due to weak demand recovery [3]. - The report maintains a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold in 2026, supported by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [4].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 方皓 SAC：S1350525110003 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税不确定性与美伊紧张局势共振，贵金属表现强势 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2026/02/16-2026/03/01） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：黄金白银价格快速上涨。近两周，伦敦现货黄金上涨 4.55%至 5222.30 美元/盎司，上期所黄金上涨 3.41%至 1147.90 元/克，沪金持仓量上涨 0.67%至 30.23 万手；伦 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 其他小金属：节后钨市偏强节奏运行，现货流通依旧紧张。节后钨产 业链快速回归偏强节奏，矿山复工偏慢，现货流通依旧紧张，持货商报价 坚挺。下游企业陆续复产，刚需补库带动交投回暖，但高价下多以小单谨 慎跟进。光伏钨丝、高端制造等领域需求稳定，成本与低库存形成双重支 撑，全链心态向好，短期行情易涨难跌，后续走势关注节后复工及供需释 放情况。个股：锑建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿业；钼关注金钼 股份、中金黄金、洛阳钼业；钨关注佳鑫国际资源、中钨高新、厦门钨业、 章源钨业，翔鹭钨业；稀土关注中国稀土、中稀有色、北方稀土、金力永 磁、厦门钨业。 一周市场回顾：本周涨幅前十：菲利华（40.02%）、云南锗业（37.77%）、 章源钨业（32.81%）、沃尔德（32.71%）、锌业股份（26.96%）、华锡 有色（26.73%）、中钨高新（26.35%）、永兴材料（25.51%）、驰宏锌 锗（24.35%）、抚顺特钢（24.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 ...

Group 1 - The core message indicates that President Trump is seeking an agreement with Iran while also emphasizing the potential for military action if necessary [1][3][15] - The U.S. military has deployed two aircraft carriers, the USS Ford and USS Lincoln, in the Middle East, signaling increased military pressure on Iran [3][16][18] - The U.S. State Department has called for all American citizens in Iran to leave immediately, citing safety concerns [18][20][22] Group 2 - The third round of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran took place recently, with a new round of technical discussions scheduled for March 2 [9][23] - Despite some optimism from the negotiations, significant differences remain, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear facilities and uranium enrichment [9][25] - The international community, including multiple countries, has issued travel warnings and advisories due to the escalating tensions in the region [20][22] Group 3 - Gold and oil prices have surged, with gold rising by 1.85% to $5,279.95 per ounce and oil prices increasing by over 3% [12][26] - U.S. stock markets experienced volatility, with all three major indices declining and nearly 3,800 stocks falling [12][26]

● 本报记者 葛瑶 国际金价的涨幅，令机构此前最乐观的预测都显得保守。此前，各家国际投行对2026年国际金价的预测 区间大致落在4800美元/盎司至5500美元/盎司之间，但开年不足一月，金价便已提前穿越这一区间。 涨价趋势逐渐蔓延，市场关心的问题是：涨价接力棒将传向何方？ 涨声四起 贵金属上涨，早已不是新鲜事。自2025年初以来，国际金价在短短一年多时间不断攀升，截至2026年2 月27日，伦敦金现货价格涨幅已超90%，伦敦银现货价格则涨逾200%，远超黄金。 基本金属市场同样暗流汹涌。锗价接近5000美元/公斤，钨价持续走高，稀土系列维持高景气。二级市 场上，稀土永磁、小金属概念指数2026年初以来涨幅紧随贵金属之后，盛和资源、中钨高新等个股相继 异动。 涨价的热浪并未止步于金属，化工板块暗潮涌动。近期，分散染料龙头浙江龙盛、闰土股份相继上调分 散黑等核心染料产品报价。据百川盈孚数据，截至2月22日，分散染料价格报2.1万元/吨，年初以来上 涨23.53%；活性染料价格报2.3万元/吨，上涨4.55%。 能源领域，油气价格上行。国际油价在地缘扰动与供需再平衡的推拉中逐步抬升。而在运输端，油轮市 场的涨势同 ...