Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade exports show strong resilience, with over 830 manufacturing companies in Shanghai achieving overseas revenue of 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Private enterprises have surpassed 740 billion yuan in overseas revenue, marking a 6% year-on-year growth and becoming the main force in "going global" [1] - The growth in overseas revenue reflects the strong resilience and international competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector amid global economic pressures [1] Group 2: Market Expansion Strategies - Diversification into emerging markets has provided significant opportunities for foreign trade growth, with companies like Xiaogoods City focusing on regions such as the Middle East, South America, and Africa [2] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has been effectively promoted, exemplified by Ningbo-Zhoushan Port establishing over 300 container shipping routes [2] - Companies like Jinlong Automobile have accelerated their global presence, achieving a 52.4% year-on-year increase in bus exports across more than 170 countries and regions [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as the core engine for companies to achieve breakthroughs in international markets, allowing them to avoid traditional low-price competition [3] - Companies are increasingly relying on high-value technology and brand strength to gain global market recognition and higher profit margins [3] Group 4: Government Support and Corporate Strategy - The Chinese government has enhanced the business environment and trade facilitation, boosting manufacturers' confidence in exploring international markets [3] - Companies are focusing on increasing R&D investment, attracting innovative talent, and achieving technological breakthroughs to support their international expansion [3] Group 5: Future Directions for Trade Development - Companies are encouraged to increase R&D investment, deepen global layouts, and enhance brand building to improve international influence and reputation [4] - Emphasis on green trade cooperation and supply chain management is suggested to address trade risks and enhance resilience against challenges such as trade friction and exchange rate fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic prosperity generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing improvements [9]. - The real estate market remains under pressure, with the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declining year - on - year [9]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, and the market is optimistic about its continued strength until the end of this year [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions, such as some being recommended for short - term observation and others for cautious trading [13][19]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure, but there may be short - term fluctuations and adjustments [23][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry Futures - On September 1, 2025, among chemical futures, coke, 20 - number rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, and methanol showed price increases, while natural rubber, PTA, PVC, asphalt, etc. showed price decreases [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's economic indicators in August showed positive trends, and some small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates [9]. - The sales of real - estate enterprises continued to decline, and the automobile inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [9][10]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread [11]. - There are international events such as the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's policies and the negotiation between Japan and the US on trade and investment [10]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Futures Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are in a short - term bottom - shock situation, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of new peanut acquisitions [13]. - Sugar futures are at the lower end of the range, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels [13]. - Corn futures are in a state of intense multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the listing rhythm of new grain and the breakthrough of the pressure level [13]. - Hog futures are in an interval - shock situation, with a near - weak and far - strong monthly spread, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. - Egg futures are expected to have limited further declines in the spot market, and it is recommended to continue short - selling on rebounds in the futures market [15]. - Cotton futures may be oscillating strongly in the medium - long term and are expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the range of 14000 - 14500 should be focused on [15]. - Log futures are recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850, focusing on the improvement of real - estate funds and the expected reduction in New Zealand's supply [16]. - Pulp futures are recommended for cautious long - biased operations, paying attention to the upper pressure and lower support levels [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures' UR2601 contract may continue to operate in the range of 1700 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the opening of the Indian tender should be focused on [19]. - Caustic soda futures' 2601 contract is recommended to be treated with a long - biased idea on dips [19]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate repeatedly and operate in an oscillating manner [19]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper futures are recommended to take a long - biased approach once the price breaks through the oscillating range upwards [19]. - Aluminum futures are expected to continue to operate at a high level [19]. - Alumina futures' 2601 contract is operating weakly, and factors such as bauxite should be focused on [21]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures' prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term [21]. - Ferroalloy futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to capital control for hedging and caution for speculation [21]. - Lithium carbonate futures are recommended to wait and see, focusing on the policies of mines in Jiangxi, and if the support level is broken, it may test the 70000 - yuan mark [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - In stock index options, trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls [23]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the underlying logic of the market has not been falsified, and investors can reduce positions on rallies and use the 10 - day moving average as a mid - term trend watershed [24][25].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On August 28, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.35%, and the position decreasing by 1,804 lots to 274,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped back to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 255 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.1%, and the position decreasing by 10,625 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 745 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. Silicon factories had a high volume of shipments to traders, while the downstream purchase volume was relatively low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution achieved basic control over the polysilicon price, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase under the production release in the southwest region. The industry clearance had not been actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand. The polysilicon spot price started to decline following the cooling of the downstream market sentiment [2]. - Short - term anti - involution - related dynamics still had a driving force on the short - term market, which might guide the correction of expectations and the decline range. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting at high levels. The relevant implementation rules for the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some silicon grades decreased, such as the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some 553 silicon also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 255 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main polysilicon futures contract increased by 975 yuan/ton to 49,665 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 650 yuan/ton to 49,745 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type and P - type polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 650 yuan to 745 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,709, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons to 255,245 tons, the inventory in some ports changed (e.g., Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons, and Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,400 tons to 267,300 tons, and the total industrial silicon social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 439,800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,880, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons to 196,200 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total polysilicon social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts present the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25][30]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [31][33][35]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 1,850 tons, reaching 157,950 tons, a rise of 1.19% [1][4] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 100 tons to 481,150 tons, showing a decline of 0.02% [1][5] - Zinc inventory fell by 2,025 tons to 58,000 tons, a decrease of 3.37% [1][9] - Nickel inventory rose by 456 tons to 209,676 tons, an increase of 0.22% [1][13] - Tin inventory decreased by 30 tons to 1,895 tons, a decline of 1.56% [1][11] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered warehouse receipts for copper stood at 144,850 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 8.29% [2][4] - Aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 468,750 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 2.58% [2][5] - Zinc registered warehouse receipts were 43,500 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 25.00% [2][9] - Nickel registered warehouse receipts were 201,564 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 3.87% [2][13] - Tin registered warehouse receipts were 1,785 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 5.80% [2][11] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 53,150 tons [4] - Rotterdam's aluminum inventory decreased by 150 tons to 20,900 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 2,025 tons to 57,900 tons [9] - Tin inventory in Port Klang decreased by 25 tons to 1,375 tons [11] - Nickel inventory in Singapore remained unchanged at 55,656 tons [13]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's skepticism towards global warming has led to a withdrawal or delay of decarbonization investment plans globally [2][4] - In 2024, decarbonization-related investments in the US, EU, and UK are expected to remain flat or decrease compared to 2023, while China is projected to see a 20% increase [4][6] - Major companies like BlackRock have exited international investment alliances aimed at promoting decarbonization, reflecting a shift in attitude towards ESG investments [4][6] Group 2 - The number of shareholder proposals in the US has decreased, with a 13% drop in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [6] - The SEC's regulatory changes have made it easier to dismiss shareholder proposals that are less relevant to company performance, leading to an increase in proposals not reaching the voting stage [6] - External factors such as the Ukraine conflict have contributed to instability in energy supply, further complicating the decarbonization investment landscape [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose, and commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the drop [10][12] - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 1.7% year-on-year [34][35] - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong's IPO fundraising surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the decline [10][12] - The top three gainers were apple (up 1.5% with a 23.5% month-on-month increase in open interest), nickel (up 1.2% with a 9.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), and tin (up 0.8% with a 73.8% month-on-month increase in open interest) [10][12] - The top three decliners were polysilicon (down 4.9% with a 12.4% month-on-month increase in open interest), coking coal (down 3.9% with a 1.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), and crude oil (down 3.6% with a 6.5% month-on-month increase in open interest) [11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Tin - On August 27, tin increased by 0.8% to 271,790 yuan/ton. Under the current tightened mining supply, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and their volatility may rise [16][20] - The domestic mining end remains tight, and the official resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight situation. In Indonesia, refined tin exports declined in July, and African tin ore production and export are unstable [17][20] - Smelters face a shortage of raw materials, with low processing fees and a low smelting operating rate. Tin terminal demand has weakened, and inventory destocking is difficult [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On August 27, crude oil decreased by 3.6% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short-term disturbances from the Russia-Ukraine issue [23][25] - API data shows a small inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ is accelerating supply release, US production is high, and non-US and non-OPEC+ output is growing steadily, leading to persistent supply pressure [24][25] - The high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries may decline due to the accumulation of refined oil inventories, and oil price rebounds remain weak [24][25] 3.1.3.2 Coking Coal - On August 27, coking coal decreased by 3.9% to 1,154 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions persist, and it is difficult to increase supply before the military parade. The market still has support due to the eighth round of coke price increases [28][31][32] - Futures market sentiment has declined, and the market has pulled back. Some coal mines have resumed production, but output is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 trucks [29][32] - The eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Coking production is restricted in some areas, and short-term rigid demand for coking coal has declined slightly. Downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, and some coal mines have seen inventory accumulation [30][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September, aiming to optimize service supply and stimulate new growth in service consumption [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profits of these enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [34][35] 3.2.2 Industry News - In the first seven months of this year, there were 51 IPOs in Hong Kong, and the fundraising amount surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion. As of the end of July, over 220 IPO applications were under review [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, with passive allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 6.84 billion yuan and active allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 140 million yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 1,100 tons, representing a 0.71% rise, with total inventory now at 156,100 tons [1][4] - Aluminum inventory rose by 3,175 tons, a 0.66% increase, bringing the total to 481,250 tons [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 5,500 tons, a significant drop of 8.39%, resulting in a total of 60,025 tons [1][9] - Tin inventory increased by 145 tons, an 8.15% rise, with total inventory at 1,925 tons [1][11] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - For copper, registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 142,850 tons, while cancelled receipts increased by 12.77% to 13,250 tons [2] - Aluminum registered receipts increased by 0.70% to 468,750 tons, with cancelled receipts decreasing by 0.79% to 12,500 tons [2] - Zinc registered receipts saw a slight decrease of 0.06% to 41,775 tons, with cancelled receipts dropping significantly by 23.08% to 18,250 tons [2] - Tin registered receipts increased by 10.77% to 1,800 tons, while cancelled receipts decreased by 19.35% to 125 tons [2] Group 3: Location-Specific Inventory Data - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory increased by 1,850 tons to 51,150 tons, while in Rotterdam, it decreased by 150 tons to 21,050 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory in Kaohsiung remained stable at 45,300 tons, while in Singapore, it was unchanged at 2,775 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 5,500 tons to 59,925 tons, while in Hong Kong, it remained at 75 tons [9] - Tin inventory in Yang increased by 175 tons to 1,925 tons, with a notable increase in Singapore to 350 tons [11]