2025年的国际大宗商品市场格外动荡。铜价在年初暴涨40%，突破1.2万美元/吨，白银价格更是翻倍飙升110%，但从年中开始，铝这种"平民金属"突然成了 主角。 伦敦金属交易所的数据显示，10月铝现金价月均达到2786美元/吨，11月进一步升至2859美元/吨，创下年内新高。 而同一时期，美国未锻轧铝及铝材的进口量连续下滑，1-7月累计进口量同比下降6.18%，7月单月进口量跌至30.3万吨，成为近年来的最低点。 这种反差让美国制造业措手不及，因为铝作为工业基础材料，一旦短缺会直接冲击新能源汽车、AI数据中心等高新产业的生产成本。 美国之所以陷入被动，与其此前囤积铜资源的战略直接相关。2025年初，美国试图通过大规模囤铜推高国际铜价，从而制约全球制造业竞争对手的发展空 间。这一操作短期内确实拉高了铜价，但没想到市场很快转向了铝需求的爆发。 根据国家统计局数据，2025年前11个月，中国原铝产量达到4120万吨，同比增长2.5%，而全球铝年消耗量高达7700多万吨，是铜消耗量的2.8倍。这种庞大 的需求基数，在供应紧张时迅速推高了铝价。 铝价飙升的根本原因在于全球产业升级带来的需求裂变。新能源汽车行业是铝消费的 ...

近日，由白银有色（维权）集团股份有限公司（以下简称"白银集团"）西北矿冶研究院研发升级的高效环保D90系列水处理剂，收到了国家知识产权局的 《专利申请受理通知书》。这一D90系列水处理剂，是西北矿冶院针对剧毒稀有分散金属"铊"开具的一张新处方，投用生产能让冶炼企业废水净化达到铊 的排放限值和监测要求。 据悉，铊元素的毒性在重金属行列中遥遥领先，是工业废水净化过程中的"硬骨头"。行业内通常采用氧化沉淀法和硫化沉淀法净化处置，存在容易引入其 他杂质和处理不彻底等弊端，进行二次处理则会带来较大的成本投入。近年来，生态环境部先后提高了铅、锌工业污染物的排放标准，其中对铊元素的排 放限值划出了红线，并对监测工作也明确了更严格的要求。 与此同时，白银集团主导的"先进金属材料和矿用浮选药剂智能化中试基地"正在建设中，正在为D90系列水处理剂立足白银走向甘肃并向西北地区拓展应 用打下产能基础。 2023年5月，西北矿冶院精细化工研究所联合环境资源研究所组成专项攻关小组，针对这一行业的"老大难"开始了为期一年的技术研发，经过成百次的精 准计算、反复调配、试验攻关，最终研发出D90系列水处理剂，成功打破传统化学沉淀法的繁复流程， ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销点比 上日与比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 160400 | 103950 | 1 | +1.19% | 56450 | -8.29% | 35.19% | 37.47% | | 铝 | 519600 | 445800 | | 0.00% | 73800 | . 0.00% | 14.20% | 14.20% | | 锌 | 99900 | 92600 | | -1.49% | 7300 | 1 +35.19% | 7.31% | 5.43% | | 覧 | 254550 | 241986 | | -0.90% | 12564 | 1 +28.94% | 4.94% | 3.84% | | 品 | 258625 | 154725 | | -4.78% | 103900 | 1 +4.29% | 40.17% | 38.01% | | 場 | 4645 | 4510 | 1 | +5.13% | 135 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report The report offers comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each commodity, providing investors with reference for trading decisions [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation data and central bank policies [2][5]. - **Silver**: Adjusting at a high level, trend strength is 0. Silver prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [2][5]. - **Platinum**: ETFs are continuously flowing in, and prices are oscillating upwards, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. - **Palladium**: Successfully breaking through the previous high, with strong upward momentum, trend strength is 1 [2][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, providing support for prices, trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Moving sideways in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction is supporting prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions, trend strength is 1 [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating within a range, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Alumina**: Slightly declining, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum, trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Nickel**: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but some products are affected by it. For example, asphalt is in a low - level oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][78]. - **PTA**: Cost support is relatively strong, with a 4500 - 4800 range operation suggested, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, trend strength is 1 [2][63][69]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend is slowing down, trend strength is 0 [2][74]. - **LLDPE**: Supply elasticity is limited, and valuation continues to be under pressure, trend strength is 0 [2][92]. - **PP**: Factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the market is moving sideways, trend strength is 0 [2][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: There will still be pressure in the later stage, trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Paper Pulp**: Widely oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength is 0 [2][108]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][111]. - **Urea**: Oscillating with support, trend strength is 0 [2][115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, trend strength is 0 [2][119]. - **LPG**: Strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term, trend strength is 0 [2][123]. - **Propylene**: Narrowly adjusting in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][124]. - **PVC**: The rebound is difficult to sustain, trend strength is 0 [2][132]. - **Fuel Oil**: Consolidating in the short - term with support below, trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrowly oscillating, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrowing, trend strength is 0 [2][136]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short - term and is searching for a bottom while oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: Weak performance of US soybeans, and it is difficult for soybean oil to stabilize, trend strength is 0 [2][160]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating at a low level, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][166]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, trend strength is 0 [2][169]. - **Sugar**: Weakly operating, trend strength is - 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with an upward bias, attention should be paid to downstream demand, trend strength is 0 [2][69][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining an oscillating trend, trend strength is 0 [2][184]. - **Hogs**: The peak demand during the Winter Solstice has passed, trend strength is - 1 [2][186]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases, trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: In an oscillating market, trend strength is 0 [2][138]. Fibers - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating at a low level in the short - term and facing pressure in the medium - term, trend strength is 0 [2][148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach, trend strength is 0 [2][151]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating in the short - term, trend strength is 0 [2][156].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：非农数据喜忧参半，A 股延续缩量下跌 商品日报 20251217 海外方面，美国经济呈现"就业走弱、需求尚稳、通胀黏性犹存"的格局。11 月新增非 农 6.5 万人超市场预期，但失业率升至 4.6%、创四年新高，就业结构明显恶化，全职岗位流 失、兼职就业增加，反映就业质量走弱。需求端方面，10 月核心零售超预期走强，对四季度 增长形成支撑。与此同时，12 月 Markit PMI 回落，制造业与服务业均弱于预期，就业指标 逼近停滞、价格指数显著上行，显示经济动能放缓与通胀压力并存。美股涨跌分化，美元指 数最低回落至 97.8，美债利率下行，金价、铜价窄幅震荡，供给宽松预期推动油价下跌、美 油创 2021 年来新低。 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 国内方面，中央财办表示，明年将把扩大内需置于首要位置，继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策，从供需两端协同稳市场。供给端严控增量、盘活存量，推动收购存量商品房用于保障 性住房等用途，加快去库存，并有序推进"好房子"建设。A 股周二延续缩量调整，两市近 4300 只个股收跌、成交额回落 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 铜：外强内弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 美国非农就业报告发布前夕，市场情绪谨慎。AI 概念股的抛售潮仍在继续，博通和甲骨文等延续了上 周的跌势，拖累了科技股和整体美股大盘。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，智利央行公布的数据显示，智利 11 月铜出口额为 42.82 亿美元，较上年同期增长 4.57%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 92,400 | -1.79% | 92410 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,686 | 1.16% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 560,196 | 144,589 | 630,265 | -16,648 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 23,1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic data in November shows a mixed picture. The production side maintains stable growth, while the investment side faces some pressure, and the consumption side shows a slowdown in growth. The overall economy continues to develop steadily with progress [2]. - The metal market has seen significant price fluctuations, with platinum hitting the daily limit, and silver reaching a record high. The supply - demand situation in the aluminum and copper markets is also changing [4][6]. - In the bond market, the overall performance is weak, with bond prices falling and yields rising in some cases. The stock market also shows a downward trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both experiencing declines [26][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, both showing some weakness. Social financing scale increased in November, and M0, M1, and M2 had different year - on - year growth rates. Financial institution RMB loans increased by 390 billion yuan in November. CPI and PPI had different trends, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - to - date in November [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic data in November shows that industrial added value, service production index, and exports increased, while fixed - asset investment and real - estate development investment decreased. The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% [2]. - ICBC will strengthen the management of its agency business for individual precious metal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Multiple futures company branches were punished for violations. The Fed's Williams made predictions about the US economy and inflation [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum futures hit the daily limit, and some platinum jewelry prices exceeded 700 yuan/gram. The price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is expected to rise. The inventory of various metals showed different trends. Silver reached a record high, and its long - term prospects are optimistic. Aluminum supply is expected to increase in 2026, and copper price forecasts were adjusted [4][6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, the output of industrial coal decreased slightly, while the output of crude oil, processed crude oil, and natural gas increased. India allows power plants with excess coal inventory to export coal, and Rio Tinto plans to start a project in Western Australia [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Work Conference plans to increase the installed capacity of wind and solar power in 2026 and layout future energy industries. Russia may extend the diesel export ban, and the trading hours of European natural gas and electricity may be extended [9][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The prices of some agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn increased, while the price of peanuts decreased. The US has new pork export sales, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping investigation on some US pork products. Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and Egypt has sufficient wheat reserves [12][14][15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 15, the central bank conducted 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 8.6 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand. China's economic data in November shows that the economy is stable with progress but also faces challenges. The prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities have different trends. Multiple departments issued policies to promote the development of service outsourcing, and the capital market will implement a series of reform measures [17][18][21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market is generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling, bond yields rising, and some corporate bonds such as Vanke's bonds declining. The currency market interest rates show different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also change [26][29]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies mostly rose [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that convertible bonds are not likely to have a deep adjustment for the time being but are difficult to have overall opportunities. Investors should trade with a short - term view. In the bond market, the mainstream view is that it will be volatile and bearish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 16, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC clarified the key reform directions of the capital market during the 15th Five - Year Plan. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both declined, and the trading volume of securities brokerage business has increased significantly this year [33][34].

全球最大金属冶炼企业韩国锌业公司计划在美国投资约 74 亿美元兴建一座冶炼厂。该项目将获得美国 政府及其他投资者的支持，旨在扩大芯片制造、国防及航空航天领域所需关键材料的供应。 韩国锌业在一份监管公告中表示，公司董事会于周一批准了在美国成立外资合资企业 "坩埚合资有限责 任公司" 的决议。公告称，该冶炼厂项目的 19.4 亿美元资金将来自这家合资企业，而合资方包括美国政 府、战略投资者以及韩国锌业自身。 目前美国仅有一座原生锌冶炼厂，由托克集团旗下子公司尼斯泰美国公司运营。另一份声明显示，尼斯 泰美国公司计划将其位于田纳西州克拉克斯维尔市的这座冶炼厂出售给韩国锌业，具体交易金额未予披 露。韩国锌业拟在该厂区原址上，打造一座 "全新、技术领先的全集成大型冶炼设施"。 韩国锌业表示，这座新冶炼厂将具备锌、铅、铜、金、银的精炼能力，同时可提炼锑、锗、镓等战略矿 产。去年，针对美国实施的技术限止措施，中国采取反制手段，对上述三种战略矿产实施出口管制。这 些矿产广泛应用于半导体、卫星及夜视仪等产品的生产制造。 在美国及其盟友推进关键矿产供应链安全保障的进程中，韩国锌业被视为具有重要战略意义的参与者。 尽管特朗普政府削减 ...

我国的首富到底是哪位呢？根据去年的官方数据显示，农夫山泉的创始人钟睒睒以资产排名第一。然而，也有不少人对他是否真正是全国首富提出了疑问， 认为一些其他的大佬的财富甚至比他更多。 其中，拥有世界铜王美誉的王文银，掌握着全球顶级矿产的丰富资源，每年净赚7000亿，是许多人眼中的中国隐形首富。那么，他是如何获得如此巨大财富 的？在经商过程中，王文银又经历了怎样的一段传奇故事呢？ 1. **寒门贵子，艰难创业** 像许多在改革开放大潮中崛起的富豪一样，王文银的家庭经济条件并不优越，他出生在安徽一个贫苦的农村家庭，正是典型的寒门贵子。1968年，王文银在 这个贫困家庭中诞生。 马云、马化腾等人一直是民间讨论的全国首富热门人选。而更有人认为，一些低调的、知名度不高的隐藏富豪更有可能才是真正的中国首富。 虽然家境贫寒，王文银的父母并没有放弃对他教育的投资，虽然家里经济捉襟见肘，他们仍然咬牙送王文银上学。由于时代的特殊背景，王文银的求学之路 并不顺利，但直到1989年，他终于考入了南京大学。 在那个大学生极为宝贵的年代，能够考入像南京大学这样的985高校，实属难得。因此，王文银毕业后顺利进入了一家国企，获得了一个铁饭碗的工作 ...

12 月 10 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1040.2 元，环比下跌 15.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长，焦炭利润修复带动产量回升，短期钢厂打压意愿偏强。存在跟随铁水疲软而下滑，铁 水下跌 2.38 万吨，库存维持累库，焦厂焦炭库存累库 6.25%。供需压力延续，库存持续大幅累库。此外截止 12 月 7 日，仅两家钢厂发布冬储政策，考虑到参与冬储的钢厂数量累积和落地时间，预期冬储驱动或将延后到 12 月下旬。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1080 元/吨（0），临汾一级冶金焦 1860 元/吨(0）， 日照准一级冶金焦 1790 元/吨（0）。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 10 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.23%，收报 3900.50 点； 深证成指涨 0.29%，收报 13316.42 点；创业板指跌 0.02%，收报 3209.00 点。沪深两市成交额 17785 亿，较昨日 缩量 1 ...