投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局偏弱，钢矿低位震荡 期货研究报告 核心观点 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应虽收缩，但需求同样走弱，淡季螺纹钢基本面矛盾在累积， 钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势维持震荡寻底态势， 关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷需求有所走弱，而高产量、高库存局面下供应压力尚存，基本 面表现偏弱，价格继续承压运行，关注需求表现情况。 作者声明 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，天气因素扰动下海外矿石供应短期收缩，而需求则是弱稳运行， 铁矿石基本面未见改善，高库存格局下矿价仍将承压运行，关注钢价 表现情况。 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. Macroeconomically, US President Trump is considering sending another US aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East for possible military action if negotiations with Iran fail. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was stable, and molten iron production remained below 2.3 million tons. Iron ore port inventory reached a new high. Overall, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, steel mills have less restocking demand. Recently, Australia was affected by a hurricane, and the shipping volume decreased significantly. At the same time, the central bank's report reiterated moderate easing, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 762.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 506,957 hands, down 6,983 hands; the I 5 - 9 contract spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 22,383 hands, down 5,244 hands; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt of I is 2,900 hands, unchanged; the Singapore iron ore main contract's 15:00 quote is 99.9 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 812 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 49 yuan, up 2 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 100.20 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.23, down 0.03; the estimated import cost is 801 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 2,535.30 million tons, down 559.30 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,455.60 million tons, down 213.60 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,914.68 million tons, up 156.42 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 10,316.64 million tons, up 348.05 million tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 million tons, up 911.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 32 days, up 3 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.51 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.27%, down 1.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.07 million tons, down 2.71 million tons; the BDI index is 1,882.00, down 13.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 7.944 US dollars/ton, down 0.12 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 79.55%, up 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.71%, up 0.26%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.22%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.80%, down 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.68%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.12%, down 0.47% [2] Industry News - From February 2nd to February 8th, 2026, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 2,535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 1,948.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,455.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.6 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,361.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123.4 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,264.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24.7 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 1,279.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 540.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,097.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 521.6 million tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 669.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 761.5 yuan/ton with no change, and the position was 513,940 hands with an increase of 556 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of iron ore, including imported and domestic ores, remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of different iron ore varieties showed little change, except for the spread between I2605 - I2609 which decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton and the spread between I2609 - I2701 which increased by 1.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [1] - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters city regularly [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of most iron ore varieties showed little to no daily change. For example, Newman powder, PB powder, and most Australian and Brazilian mainstream varieties had a daily change of 0. However, Ukrainian fine powder and Karara fine powder increased by 3, and PB lump/ lump premium increased by 5 [3]. - **Weekly Changes**: Most varieties had a downward trend in weekly changes. For instance, the weekly change of the Platts 61 index was -2.20, and many Australian and Brazilian mainstream varieties decreased by 14 or 13 [3]. Forward Market - **Price Changes**: The forward prices of some varieties also showed certain changes. For example, the daily change of the Newman powder forward price was 0.50, and its weekly change was -1.25 [3]. Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE)**: The i2701 contract had a price of 732.0 with no daily change and a weekly change of -17.0. The i2605 contract was priced at 761.5 with no daily change and a weekly change of -16.0, and the i2609 contract was at 744.0 with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of -16.0 [3]. - **Singapore Exchange (SGX)**: The FE01 contract was at 97.39 with a daily change of 0.55 and a weekly change of -3.32. The FE05 contract was priced at 99.56 with a daily change of 0.60 and a weekly change of -3.43, and the FE09 contract was at 98.56 with a daily change of 0.53 and a weekly change of -3.41 [3].

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] Group 2: Futures Prices - DCE01 price: 732.0, unchanged from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 761.5, unchanged from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 744.0, up 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: -29.5, unchanged from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 17.5, down 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: 12.0, up 1.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) price: 763, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 763, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 755, down 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 716, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 753, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 653, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 784, down 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 790, down 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG price: 709, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 864, up 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 846, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 835, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 738, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 832, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 689, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 774, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] Group 4: Basis and Spread - Optimal delivery product: BRBF (63%) [2] - 01 factory warehouse basis: 63 [2] - 05 factory warehouse basis: 34 [2] - 09 factory warehouse basis: 52 [2] - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 97, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 47, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 148, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 51, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 86, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 19, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 102, down 3 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 114, unchanged from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 78, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Index and Spread - Platts 61% iron ore price: 100.2, up 1.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price: 116.5, up 1.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price: 91.9, up 0.5 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE01 spread: 4.4, up 0.9 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread: 0.7, up 0.7 from the day before yesterday [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread: 3.0, up 0.8 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 6: Import Profit - Carajás powder import profit: -1, up 1 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 51, down 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: 22, down 7 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 53, down 5 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: 5, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 112, down 6 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 11, down 14 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 45, down 7 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 6, down 2 from the day before yesterday [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant espionage case involving the Australian mining company Rio Tinto, where insider information about China's steel industry was leaked, leading to substantial financial losses for Chinese steel companies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Espionage Details - The espionage activities lasted for six years, resulting in over 700 billion RMB in additional costs for China's steel industry due to inflated iron ore prices [3][5]. - The key figure in this case, Hu Shitai, was a former Chinese national who became a pivotal person in Rio Tinto's iron ore business in China, using unethical methods to gather sensitive information [3][5]. - Hu Shitai's actions included bribing small steel companies to gain access to low-priced long-term import quotas, which contributed to his wealth and reputation as a trade hero in Australia [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The financial impact of the espionage was equivalent to about one-tenth of Australia's GDP at the time, and the total increase in international iron ore prices was nearly 400% during the six years of espionage [3][5]. - The losses incurred by Chinese steel companies were more than double their total profits over two years, indicating a severe economic strain on the industry [3][5]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Response - Following the exposure of the espionage, Hu Shitai was sentenced to ten years in prison for bribery and infringement of commercial secrets, but the industry and national reflection on the incident continued [5][6]. - The case highlighted the need for stronger legal frameworks and security measures to protect sensitive commercial data, leading to improvements in laws related to espionage and commercial secrets in China [6]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The article emphasizes the importance of economic security as a component of national security, suggesting that core commercial data is as critical as traditional political and military secrets [6]. - It advocates for continuous upgrades to the security awareness of individuals in key positions within companies and research institutions to prevent future espionage incidents [6]. - The need for strategic autonomy in key industries is underscored, with recommendations for enhancing domestic supply chains and investing in international resource channels to reduce dependency on foreign entities [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Spot Market of Iron Ore - Newman powder: latest price 759, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 811.7, import profit 12.71 [1] - PB powder: latest price 763, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 811.6 [1] - Macfarlane powder: latest price 757, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 826.9, import profit 33.50 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 716, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 806.5, import profit 41.73 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: latest price 707, daily change +2, weekly change -18, discount to the futures price 843.3, import profit -2.80 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 650, daily change +2, weekly change -21, discount to the futures price 867.8, import profit -8.98 [1] - Carajás powder: latest price 863, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 795.3, import profit -9.57 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: latest price 791, daily change -10, weekly change -30, discount to the futures price 795.0, import profit 4.90 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 738, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 809.5 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 743, daily change +1, weekly change -19 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: latest price 835, daily change 0, weekly change -28, discount to the futures price 927.1 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 705, daily change +1, weekly change -19 [1] - Karara concentrate: latest price 844, daily change 0, weekly change -24, discount to the futures price 860.8 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 750, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 825.6, import profit 56.33 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 822, daily change +1, weekly change -19, discount to the futures price 800.7 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 585, daily change +2, weekly change -21 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 702, daily change +2, weekly change -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: latest price 963, daily change 0, weekly change -8, discount to the futures price 850.0 [1] 3.2 Futures Market of Iron Ore - DCE i2701 contract: latest price 732.0, daily change -0.5, weekly change -21.5, monthly spread 11.0 [1] - DCE i2605 contract: latest price 761.5, daily change +1.0, weekly change -21.5, monthly spread -29.5 [1] - DCE i2609 contract: latest price 743.0, daily change +0.5, weekly change -23.0, monthly spread 18.5 [1] - SGX FE01 contract: latest price 96.84, daily change -1.33, weekly change -8.78, monthly spread 1.19 [1] - SGX FE05 contract: latest price 98.96, daily change -1.39, weekly change -4.76, monthly spread -2.12 [1] - SGX FE09 contract: latest price 98.03, daily change -1.40, weekly change -4.70, monthly spread 0.93 [1]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 供需方面，上周247家样本钢厂螺纹产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量小幅下降，库存继续继续增加，表观需求 环比回落。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加。从技术面看，期价跌破了近期的震荡区间，展开 一轮下跌行情。 操作建议： 维持观望，不建议追空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3077 -24 -0.77% -51 -1.63% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3251 -12 -0.37% -37 -1.13% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3220 0 0 -30 -0.92% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3250 0 0 -20 -0.61% 基差与价差 螺纹钢主力基差 元/吨 143 24 21 热轧卷板主力基差 元/吨 -1 12 17 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 元/吨 -34 5 0 热轧卷板期货10-1价差 元/吨 -25 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]