前景 年末补库支撑震荡，需求预期仍谨慎 东证衍生品研究院黑色金属资深分析师：许惠敏 从业资格号 : F3081016 投资咨询号 : Z0016073 报告日期：2026年1月2日 | 节前补库托底价格，年后需求预期压制上行空间 | 因子 | 間度观点 | 12535 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3677.10万吨，环比增加212.60万吨（+6.14%）； 澳洲发运量2113.70万吨，环比增加163.10万吨（+8.36%）; 巴西发运量945.90万吨，环比增加81.80万吨（+9.47%）； 澳巴合计发运量3059.60万吨，环比增加244.90万吨（+8.70%）。本周中国 | | | 供给 | 45港铁矿到港量2601.40万吨、环比减少45.30万吨（-1.71%）。矿山发运与到腾维持稳定，李节性犹动有限，供应端无明显增量或收 | 中性 | | | 缩。 | | | | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为85.26%，环比提升0.32%（+0.38%）；目均铁水产量227.43万吨，环比增加0.85万吨（+0.38%）； | | | 龍求 | 钢厂盈利比 ...

据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委 内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。同日，有美国官员表示，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗于1月3日 凌晨被美军最高特种任务部队三角洲部队的成员抓获。 对全球商品市场影响几何？ 作为全球已探明石油储量第一的国家，委内瑞拉还是铜、铝土矿、铀矿等关键矿产资源的重要供应方。 随着美委紧张局势升级，全球原油和矿产供应链的不确定性增加。 "此次美国对委内瑞拉发动空袭，对能源领域的影响最为显著。"宝城期货能化高级研究员陈栋表示， 2025年委内瑞拉原油出口量占全球贸易的3.2%，其重质原油是美国墨西哥湾炼厂的核心原料，该事件 直接引发市场对委内瑞拉原油供应中断的担忧。此外，今年一季度OPEC+暂停增产和减产协议持续生 效。预计假期后国际油价有望走强。 方正中期期货交易咨询部首席石油化工研究员隋晓影表示，去年12月以来，美国不断加码对委内瑞拉的 制裁，对其油轮实施封锁。此次美委紧张局势进一步恶化，将继续削弱委内瑞拉的原油出口，减少国际 市场重油供给，轻重油价差将收窄，对油价将形成短线提振。 物产中大期货宏观高级分析师周之云则表示，虽然委内 ...

劳埃德金属与能源公司股价上涨3.5%，因季度铁矿石销量大增 。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

在全球铁矿石市场的博弈大棋局中，中国正上演一场堪称亘古未有的华丽逆转。从过去被动接受国际定价、任人宰割的窘境，到如今逐步掌握谈判主动权、 推动定价机制重构，这不仅是国家资源战略的成功演绎，更是一场牵动全球产业链的产业革命开端，深刻改写着全球资源治理的原有逻辑。 自1981年铁矿石长期合同机制确立以来，中国凭借持续扩张的钢铁产业，已然成长为全球最大的铁矿石消费国，长期占据全球七成以上的消费份额。但令人 遗憾的是，过去数十年间，这一巨大消费市场的定价权却始终被美、澳等西方国家及国际矿商牢牢掌控，令中国在国际贸易中陷入"买得越多、亏得越多"的 被动境地。据行业测算，中国每年因被动接受虚高定价，不得不额外支出超过100亿美元的成本，巨额利益源源不断流入外国矿企口袋。然而，随着中国产 业布局的深化与市场话语权的觉醒，这种失衡局面正在悄然发生根本性转变。 事实上，自2004年起，中国就已稳居全球铁矿石最大买家地位，但美、澳等国的矿商却凭借资源垄断优势，持续推高价格攫取暴利。以力拓、必和必拓、淡 水河谷、FMG为首的四大矿商，垄断了全球70%的铁矿石资源供应，形成了强议价能力的寡头格局。尤其在全球供应链日益复杂、国际地缘政 ...

那个红色的暂停按钮，是在很多人毫无心理准备的情况下被按下的，不久前，一向在全球海运航线上畅 通无阻的澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓，在中国的大门口被拦了下来。 理由很简单，也很官方：矿石品质未达标，短短几个字，没有情绪、没有指控，却直接把货挡在了港口 之外。 要理解这次动作的分量，就必须直面一个长期被忽视、却极其刺眼的现实。 放在过去几十年，这种场景几乎不可想象，因为在铁矿石这条黑色产业链上，中国长期扮演的角色，从 来不是挑剔的甲方，而是急着吃饭、不得不低头的超级买家。 过去的现实是，只要能保证供应，哪怕品位一般、价格偏高，我们也往往只能接受，不是不清楚吃了 亏，而是没有退路，钢厂要开炉，基建要上马，整个国家的工业机器都等着原料续命。 在这种情况下，哪怕心里再不甘，也只能捏着鼻子认，可这一次，中国没有选择"照旧收货"，而是直接 把门关上了，这一举动的意义，远远不是一次技术性的退货，而是一次态度明确的摊牌。 很多人第一眼看到的，只是必和必拓吃瘪的尴尬，却没看明白更深层的变化：中国为什么敢在这个时间 点说"不"。 其实这不在一时一事，而在一个长期积累的痛点，利润分配的极端失衡，几十年来，铁矿石定价权牢牢 攥在少数西方矿 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月31日08时17分 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求回升，五 大品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价 格大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，期价有望维持震荡 上行的走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3134 | 4 | 0.13% | 6 | 0.19% | | 期现货 ...

12月31日，海南矿业盘中上涨2.62%，截至09:35，报12.15元/股，成交1.09亿元，换手率0.46%，总市值 242.79亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 海南矿业所属申万行业为：钢铁-冶钢原料-铁矿石。所属概念板块包括：乡村振兴、海南自贸区、天然 气、锂电池、中盘等。 截至9月30日，海南矿业股东户数5.06万，较上期增加8.38%；人均流通股39072股，较上期减少7.74%。 2025年1月-9月，海南矿业实现营业收入33.60亿元，同比增长5.93%；归母净利润3.12亿元，同比减少 42.84%。 分红方面，海南矿业A股上市后累计派现9.93亿元。近三年，累计派现6.57亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，海南矿业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1270.31万股，相比上期增加210.73万股。国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）位居第五大流通股 东，持股606.24万股，为新进股东。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第六大流通股东，持股548.90万 股，相比上期减少15.64万股。华夏中证1000ETF（159845）位居第九大流通股东，持股 ...

K 让衍生品 成为新的生产力 让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 2026 年商品年度报告 黑色商品 供给作为主变量，2026 年矿价或前高后低 摘 要 整体来看，2026 年全球铁矿石供需关系静态宽松，供应端放量 主要体现在非主流及几内亚矿山，需求端国内仍然面临下行压力， 海外将有小幅增加。港口库存继续积累，矿价或承压运行。预计价 格中枢将下移至 85-90 美金。节奏上，一、二季度在供给缩量、钢 企复产、冬储及开工预期下，价格相对偏强，三、四季度随着供应 端放量，叠加需求难有起色的情况下，矿价恐承压。 期现及月间套利方面，供应增加预期的兑现程度以及铁水产量 波动节奏的错配或带来套利机会。如 3 月份可关注跨期正套及期现 反套。 黑色商品研究 品种间套利，从估值和供应增量预期来看，若增量兑现，铁矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].