Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national carbon emissions trading market will expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with a total annual carbon emissions quota and distribution plan to be publicly solicited soon [1] - The expansion is expected to add 1,500 key emission units to the national carbon market, covering an additional greenhouse gas emission volume of approximately 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, which will enable effective control of over 60% of national carbon emissions [1] - Currently, the national carbon emissions trading market covers 2,200 key emission units in the power generation industry, managing over 5 billion tons of CO2 emissions, which accounts for about 40% of the national total [1] Group 2 - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are significant contributors to carbon emissions, accounting for over 20% of the national total CO2 emissions [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizes the need for enterprises to strengthen their awareness of responsibilities and improve data quality management in accordance with the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading Management" [1] - The Ministry plans to accelerate the improvement of the national carbon market, promoting more high-emission industries to enter the carbon market while combining free and paid quota distribution methods to enhance market vitality [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that corporate carbon management has become a central task for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals and promoting a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society [1][2] - The establishment of a multi-layered carbon management policy system is highlighted, which includes local carbon assessments, industry carbon controls, corporate carbon management, project carbon evaluations, and product carbon footprints [2] - Experts noted that while a preliminary carbon management policy framework has been formed, specific details still need to be expedited, with existing regulations facing challenges in practical implementation [2][3] Group 2 - There is a significant differentiation in carbon management across various industries, with high-carbon sectors like thermal power, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting accelerating the establishment of their carbon management systems [3] - The impact of international trade rules is increasing carbon management costs for industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, despite their relatively advanced carbon management frameworks [3] - Recommendations for enhancing corporate carbon management include creating unified national standards, activating green financial tools, and developing a green supply chain to strengthen responsibility and set emission reduction standards [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province's electricity consumption reached 1004.28 billion kWh in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.03%, indicating strong economic vitality and development trends [1] Industrial Electricity Consumption - Industrial electricity consumption grew by 9.35%, significantly supporting Guizhou's economic development as traditional industries transform and new industries emerge [2] - The aluminum smelting industry saw a 16.33% increase in electricity consumption, with Guizhou Aluminum New Materials Co., Ltd. operating at full capacity [2] - The electricity consumption in the aluminum industry chain in Qingzhen City reached 37.03 billion kWh, up 2.18% year-on-year [2] - The phosphate chemical industry experienced a 9.29% increase in electricity consumption, while the new energy battery materials sector surged by 47.63% [2] Textile Industry Performance - Tongren Fujian Tianxiang Textile Co., Ltd. reported a remarkable 257% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption, with an average daily consumption of 33,000 kWh [3] Internet Data Services - Electricity consumption for internet data services increased by 51.68%, driven by the exponential growth in computing power demand at data centers [4] - Guizhou Electric Power invested in a 500 kV substation to ensure reliable power supply for major data centers, achieving a power supply reliability rate of 99.999% [4] - The data center electricity load has tripled over five years, with no recorded power outages [4] Big Data Industry - In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the big data industry in Gui'an New Area reached 12.57 billion kWh, contributing to rapid development in related sectors [5] - Guizhou Electric Power is implementing a power supply plan to support the national integrated computing network [5] Accommodation and Catering Industry - The accommodation and catering sector's electricity consumption increased by 6.75%, with significant contributions from tourism-related activities [6] - The tourism sector in Zhaoxing received 1.027 million visitors, generating a total revenue of 1.02 billion yuan [6] Charging Service Industry - The charging service industry has seen a 49.92% increase in electricity consumption, with 2,476 charging stations and 12,782 charging guns established by the end of June [7] - This development supports the growth of the new energy vehicle industry and promotes green travel [7]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy aligns closely with sustainable development goals, as it aims to govern low-price and disorderly competition in enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a systemic action against "involution" competition [6] - The policy will assist high-energy-consuming industries in their low-carbon transition by eliminating backward production capacity and optimizing the energy structure, which is crucial for achieving sustainable development [6] - High-energy-consuming industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, account for 33% of national carbon emissions, with steel at 15%, cement at 13%, and aluminum at 5% [6] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy will also support the sustainable development of the renewable energy sector by regulating market order and curbing unhealthy competition, which threatens the industry's sustainability [6] - The renewable energy sector is vital for China's "dual carbon" strategy, as it can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy structure [6] - From 2017 to 2023, the greenhouse gas emissions of renewable energy producers and photovoltaic equipment were 0.08 million tons and 0.28 million tons, respectively, which are significantly lower than emissions from steel and aluminum industries [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market has experienced a significant price decline, with carbon emission allowances (CEA) dropping to 68.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 35% from the historical high of around 105 yuan/ton reached in November of the previous year. This decline is attributed to weakened demand, increased supply expectations, and deteriorating market sentiment. However, long-term prospects suggest that carbon prices may stabilize and rise due to tightening policies, industrial upgrades, and deeper international linkages [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - The primary demand side for carbon market is thermal power, which has seen a decrease in generation, directly impacting the motivation to purchase carbon allowances. From January to April, total electricity generation, including thermal power, grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2]. - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50 after April due to trade frictions, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth. Additionally, higher temperatures this year have reduced residential electricity consumption, further impacting demand for carbon allowances [2]. - The introduction of a "zero gap" for new industry allowances and the restart of the voluntary emission reduction market (CCER) have also contributed to downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current price decline, there is a consensus that the long-term upward trend of carbon prices remains intact. The total allowance will tighten annually in line with the "dual carbon" goals, leading to increased scarcity [4]. - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to impose a "carbon tax" in 2026, is expected to align domestic carbon prices with major markets [4]. - The transition of high-emission industries will require higher carbon price signals, supporting the long-term price increase [4]. Group 3: Financial Innovations and Risk Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed the development of carbon futures, which will help companies manage carbon price volatility through hedging strategies [5]. - The establishment of a well-functioning carbon futures market is seen as essential for stabilizing carbon costs and avoiding adverse impacts on business operations due to price fluctuations [5][6]. - The future development of a carbon futures market is viewed as an opportunity for gaining international pricing power in major energy commodities [6].

Group 1 - The central government has issued opinions to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, focusing on expanding the national carbon emission trading market's coverage and trading varieties [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a work plan for the carbon emission trading market, marking the operational phase of the market's expansion to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries [1] - The quality of greenhouse gas emission data is crucial for determining carbon emission quotas and compliance, serving as the foundation for the healthy development of the carbon market [1] Group 2 - The national carbon market's construction requires unified basic institutional rules, with common requirements identified across the power generation, cement, steel, and aluminum smelting industries regarding greenhouse gas emission data quality management [2] - Differences exist in data quality management requirements between the manufacturing industries (cement, steel, aluminum) and the public utility sector (power generation), particularly in accounting boundaries and emission sources [2][4] - The aluminum smelting industry includes additional greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide, while the cement and steel industries focus solely on carbon dioxide emissions [4] Group 3 - The measurement of key parameters in the expanded industries relies on calculating carbon content based on the lower heating value, differing from the direct measurement approach used in the power generation sector [3] - The cement and steel industries have higher requirements for detecting lower heating values, necessitating accredited testing institutions for sampling and analysis [3] Group 4 - As the carbon market expands, the number of enterprises and the scale of emissions covered will significantly increase, necessitating differentiated strategies for data quality management across industries [5] - Recommendations include developing tailored capacity enhancement plans for different industries, focusing on measurement, detection, and reporting processes [5][6] Group 5 - Emphasis on training and education for personnel involved in greenhouse gas emission data quality management is essential, with specialized training tailored to various roles within the industry [6][7] - Companies should prioritize data quality management as a key aspect of their operations, establishing internal mechanisms and responsibilities for carbon market compliance [7] Group 6 - The growth of the carbon market has led to the emergence of green low-carbon service industries, which require standardization and quality improvement to mitigate risks associated with service delivery [8] - The establishment of a third-party service market for carbon measurement and verification is crucial, along with the development of service standards and quality assessment mechanisms [8]

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

Group 1: ESG Policies - The Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Market-oriented Allocation System for Resource and Environmental Factors," aiming to deepen the reform of market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors [1] - By 2027, the trading systems for carbon emissions rights and water usage rights are expected to be basically improved, with the establishment of a sound pollutant discharge rights trading system [1] Group 2: Carbon Emission Statistics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the construction of a comprehensive carbon emission statistical accounting system, deploying 23 key tasks to address current issues such as inconsistent accounting standards and varying data quality [2] - The completion of the national greenhouse gas inventory from 2015 to 2021 and the preliminary completion of the 2022 inventory indicates a move towards a more refined and standardized approach to carbon accounting [2] Group 3: Renewable Energy Development - The "China Renewable Energy Development Report 2024" indicates that 280 million kilowatts of new wind and solar power capacity is expected to be added this year, reflecting both technological maturity and effective policy support [3] - The report emphasizes the need for accelerated construction of grid absorption and energy storage to avoid issues of wasted wind and solar energy [3] Group 4: Carbon Market Expansion - Major industrial sectors such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting have officially joined the national carbon market, which now covers over 6 billion tons of carbon emissions, accounting for more than 40% of the national total [4] - This expansion is expected to enhance the carbon pricing mechanism's role in guiding industrial emissions reductions [4] Group 5: ESG Fund Growth - As of May 23, the number of ESG public funds in the domestic market reached 669, with a total scale exceeding 824.2 billion yuan, indicating a rapid penetration of sustainable investment concepts into the capital market [6] - Environmental protection-themed ESG funds dominate in both number and scale, while corporate governance-themed funds show a significant shortfall, highlighting a structural imbalance in ESG investment [6] Group 6: ESG Standards and Challenges - The former vice chairman of the China Standardization Association highlighted that the lack of unified international ESG standards and significant industry differences pose major challenges to the effective implementation of ESG systems [7] - A proposed "1+N" model combining general standards with industry-specific guidelines aims to address these challenges and adapt to the needs of different sectors [7] Group 7: Zero Carbon Initiatives - The first "zero carbon island" in the Yangtze River Basin has been put into operation, featuring a wind power project that integrates wind, solar, and energy storage systems to create a self-sufficient clean energy supply [8] - This project serves as an important demonstration of the feasibility of large-scale renewable energy applications [8]