Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon [1] - Neutral: Most other industries are rated as "oscillating" [1] Core Views of the Report - Policy aims to achieve a "slow bull" in the stock market, with short - term oscillations in the stock index and long - term opportunities for long - position layout. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank [1]. - Different metals and commodities have various trends. For example, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, aluminum prices are falling from high levels, and nickel prices are in high - level oscillations with supply concerns and inventory constraints [1]. - Precious metals are supported by geopolitical and trade tensions, but the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US may cause price fluctuations. Platinum and palladium are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term, and a long - term strategy of buying platinum and shorting palladium can be considered [1]. - In the agricultural and energy - chemical sectors, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index: Policy cools market speculation, with short - term oscillations and long - term opportunities for long - position layout [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Downstream demand is under pressure, and with the suspension of key - mineral tariffs by the US, short - term copper - hoarding concerns are alleviated, and prices are in high - level oscillations [1] - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment lead to aluminum prices falling from high levels [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand in the domestic market, and prices are under pressure, but they are near the cost line and expected to oscillate [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but inventory pressure is evident, and prices fluctuate within a range due to repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The 2026 RKAB target of Indonesian nickel ore is about 260 million wet tons, but the supply is still tight. Global nickel inventory accumulation may restrict price increases, and short - term prices are in high - level oscillations. Short - term long - position trading on dips is recommended, but over - chasing highs should be avoided [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw - material nickel iron is rising, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production in January is increasing. Futures prices are in high - level oscillations, and short - term long - position trading on dips is recommended [1] - Tin: Short - term macro sentiment is repeated, and prices have corrected. However, due to the fragile supply of tin ore, there is still upward momentum, and low - buying opportunities should be monitored [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions boost prices, and they are expected to be strong in the short term, but price fluctuations may be intense due to the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US [1] - Platinum and palladium: Geopolitical and trade tensions support prices, but the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US may suppress price drivers. Short - term wide - range oscillations are expected, and a long - term strategy of buying platinum and shorting palladium can be considered [1] Industrial and Building Materials - Industrial silicon: Production increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the planned production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreases [1] - Polysilicon: It is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a battery export rush with a large increase in price [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient [1] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing highs is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and large fluctuations after a significant increase require caution [1] - Glass: Short - term market sentiment is warming, and supply - demand provides support, but medium - term supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash: It follows glass prices, and medium - term supply - demand is looser, with prices under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The purchasing rhythm of major consuming countries is starting, production areas are expected to reduce production and inventory, and with the possibility of biodiesel themes fermenting, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [1] - Soybean oil: It has a strong fundamental situation, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended, and a strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting other oils can be considered [1] - Rapeseed oil: Tariff - adjustment expectations for Canadian rapeseed and customs - clearance expectations for Australian rapeseed are bearish, but it is difficult to decline smoothly, and it is recommended to wait and see due to large recent price fluctuations [1] - Cotton: There is strong domestic new - crop production expectation, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream operation rates are low, but yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is rigid restocking demand. Future factors such as the central government's No.1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand should be monitored [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply, and there is a consensus among short - sellers. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous short - term fundamental drivers, and changes in the capital side should be monitored [1] - Corn: The grain - selling progress in Northeast China is fast, port inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before the festival. Short - term spot prices are firm, and futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - Soybeans: As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium reflects the selling pressure of a bumper harvest. Dry weather in Argentina should be monitored, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Pulp: Affected by the decline in the commodity macro - environment, prices have fallen but remain within the oscillation range. Due to large short - term commodity - sentiment fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: Spot prices have shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the further decline in futures prices is limited. However, the January overseas offer has slightly decreased, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors, with prices expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Hogs: Spot prices are gradually stabilizing, demand provides support, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports affect prices [1] - Fuel oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent and follow crude - oil prices. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, with high asphalt profits [1] - Shanghai rubber: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - BR rubber: There is a phased correction, high - price spot transactions are blocked, the cost of butadiene has strong bottom - support, overseas cracking - unit production capacity is cleared, and the domestic market is expected to benefit in the long term. The market will return to fundamental - driven in the short term [1] - PTA: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the market is expected to tighten in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high gasoline spread supports aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: Two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. Prices have rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and downstream polyester operation rates are above 90% [1] - Short - fiber: Prices continue to closely follow cost fluctuations [1] - Styrene: The supply - demand fundamentals have improved, futures prices have rebounded rapidly, the Asian market has stabilized, and the price difference between styrene and benzene has widened, with inventory being depleted [1] - Urea: Export sentiment has eased, there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor. The cancellation of export tax - rebates may lead to a rush to export, and differential electricity prices in the northwest may force out inefficient production capacity [1] - LPG: The February CP is expected to rise, the cost of imported gas is strongly supported, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled, inventory is being depleted, domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is in deep loss, and the heating market is expected to start [1] Others - Container shipping on the European route: It is expected to peak in mid - January, pre - festival restocking demand still exists, and airlines are still cautious in their trial re - flights [1]

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - Macro factors include significant selling of long-term Japanese government bonds due to pre-election expectations and expansionary fiscal narratives, leading to market tension [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [3][12] - Domestic copper consumption is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, indicating a need for adjustment [3][12] - Despite the current market conditions, there is still support from funds, making a significant price drop unlikely, with attention on the LME support level of $12,000 per ounce [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.12% to $17,760 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.68% to 140,110 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 972 tons to 284,736 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 320 tons to 41,478 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local mineral prices, although specific quota levels for 2026 were not disclosed [4][13] - Primary nickel production increased significantly by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, with hedging demand potentially exerting pressure on prices [4][5][13] - Short-term nickel prices may be supported by Indonesian policies, but high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,668 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also decreased, with AL2603 closing at 23,775 yuan per ton, down 1.02% [6][14] - The market is experiencing a high inventory level, and there is a lack of purchasing interest from alumina plants, leading to continued inventory accumulation [6][14] - Domestic downstream inventory is expected to continue accumulating, with a potential for short-term price corrections in aluminum [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,745 yuan per ton, down 0.4% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices remained strong, with the main contract at 50,700 yuan per ton, up 0.91% [7][15] - The market is shifting from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures on polysilicon prices due to supply-demand imbalances [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit up at 160,500 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources of lithium showing production increases [8][16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, indicating a mixed supply-demand situation [8][16] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless clear negative feedback from demand emerges [8][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows that the US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [3][18] - Domestic copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, which is a strong support factor for the market [4][19] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase due to tight copper concentrate supply [4][19] - The net import of refined copper in November decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [4][19] - As of January 16, global visible copper inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 1.037 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - Market sentiment is influenced by precious metals, with copper prices showing strength initially but concerns over domestic policy impacts and seasonal demand weakening consumption [5][20] - The overall market outlook for copper remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, but caution against excessive buying is advised [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - January's refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is projected to decrease by 1% [7][21] - Demand in the new energy sector is weakening, with a decline in the production of ternary precursor materials and a drop in terminal sales of new energy vehicles [7][21] - LME nickel inventories increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons, indicating a slight build-up in stock [7][21] - Indonesia is adjusting its nickel quotas to support local prices, which may provide some price support in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.2% week-on-week, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices also show declines [8][22] - The operating rate for alumina has increased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise, indicating a mixed supply outlook [8][22] - Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to increased processing rates in some sectors, but overall demand recovery is limited [9][22] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum are rising, suggesting a potential oversupply situation in the near term [9][24] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures are showing a weak trend, with production decreasing week-on-week, while polysilicon prices are also under pressure [11][25] - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening due to reduced operating rates and closures in some regions, while demand remains subdued [11][25] - Inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are increasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11][26] - The market is shifting focus from speculative trading to fundamental analysis, with expectations of limited price recovery in the short term [11][26] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with varying trends in different lithium sources [14][27] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is declining, with significant drops in both retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles [14][27] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, but overall market sentiment remains pressured due to weak demand [14][28] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to funding disturbances, with a recommendation to monitor inventory turnover and demand trends closely [14][28]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.41% to $13,148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 21,280 tons year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 75.90%, with expectations of a slight decrease next week [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.71% to $3,171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [2] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre-holiday inventory demand [2] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina is 11,032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8,916 million tons/year [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4,620.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 10.24 tons to 1,074.8 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market, with concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran [3] - The 10-year TIPS decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.88% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 8.01%, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets reaching a historical high [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand [4] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 6.33%, with supply remaining tight due to pre-holiday clearances [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Companies to focus on include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 7.55%, with inventory levels still acceptable despite recent accumulation [4] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4] - Companies to consider include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,600 tons, with a slight increase week-on-week [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to low inventory and high demand [4] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.3% to ¥454,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 0.6% to $25.38 per pound [5] - The market is experiencing cautious purchasing behavior due to high cost pressures [5] - The price of cobalt salts continues to rise, providing support for electric cobalt prices [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level adjustment in the short term due to the dual pressure of short - term demand and a strong US dollar, but the medium - term demand is still positive [7]. - The downward space of lithium carbonate futures prices is limited, considering the limited growth of supply and the recovery of short - term demand [28]. - Aluminum prices have a downward adjustment demand in the short term due to the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase in the early stage [41][44]. - The operating center of nickel prices is expected to gradually rise, but the long - term space depends on the demand side, and investors need to pay attention to the Indonesian policy [77][78]. - Zinc prices are supported by macro - sentiment and a tight industrial pattern, but high prices have suppressed consumption, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [103][104]. 4. Summary of Each Metal Copper Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 100,060 and 105,650 this week, with a 5.3% decrease in total positions. The price first rose and then fell. LME copper also fluctuated in a certain range, and the overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long decreased [7]. - In the short term, high copper prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory accumulation accelerates. However, the medium - term demand is positive, such as the increase in the State Grid's fixed - asset investment and TSMC's capital expenditure. It is expected that copper prices will enter a high - level adjustment in the short term [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of cold materials is abundant. The production of smelters in January is expected to decrease slightly. The import window of refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of waste copper rods and refined copper rods have rebounded, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious. The operating rate of wire and cable has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of enameled wire has increased [14][15][16][17]. - **Spot**: The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME + COMEX market has also increased. It is expected that the inventory may decline next week [18][20]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell this week, with a 17% decrease in total positions. The spot price also fluctuated. The downstream has stocked up in advance, and the social inventory has started to decline [27]. - The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the downward space of futures prices is limited [28]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Lithium ore prices have risen significantly this week. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in January. The production cost has also increased [31]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and lithium batteries have all risen. The demand for cathode materials is expected to recover [32][33][34]. - **Spot**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. Aluminum Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level this week, reaching new highs and then falling. The market sentiment cooled down, and the import window was closed. The inventory increased, and the spot premium was in a certain range [41]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and the demand may be stimulated by the decline in aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will have a downward adjustment in the short term [44]. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite production is gradually recovering, and the overseas market is trading lightly. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the price of imported bauxite has declined slightly [45]. - **Alumina**: The price has adjusted downward this week, and the import window is open. The domestic alumina plant is operating at a high level [49][50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window of aluminum ingots is closed, and the net import in November has declined. The operating rate of downstream processing has increased slightly due to pre - holiday stocking, but it is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [55][62][65][70]. Nickel Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, rising first and then falling. The spot trading was light, and the import window was closed [74][77]. - Nickel prices are affected by Indonesian policies. Although the short - term surplus pressure still exists, the operating center is expected to rise. Investors need to pay attention to the final quota of Indonesia [77][78]. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian wet - process nickel ore has decreased, and the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased month - on - month [79]. - **Ferronickel**: The production of domestic and Indonesian ferronickel has decreased. The market has some activity, but there is still a difference between the upstream and downstream [86]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. The production in December has increased, and the import and export volumes have changed [91]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts has risen significantly this week. The production in December has decreased, and the industry's operating load is at a certain level [96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the pattern of low inventory and strong expectation will continue, but there are potential risks [99]. Zinc Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zinc prices fluctuated this week, reaching a new high and then falling back. The import window is not fully open, and the premium has declined [101][102]. - The short - term bullish funds are loose, the supply pressure is limited, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against the high - level callback of zinc prices [103][104]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, the import processing fee continues to decline, and the import window is open but the trading is light. The zinc ingot production in January is expected to increase slightly [109][110][111]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide have all decreased. It is expected that the operating rates will rise slightly next week, but the recovery is limited [112][113]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to potential changes in Indonesian nickel ore policies [3]. - The stainless - steel market has a situation where cost support and weak demand are in a game. The stainless - steel main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term, and focus should be on the price trend of nickel iron, spot trading volume, and macro - sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,330 yuan/ton and closed at 140,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,070,694 (-206,996) lots, and the open interest was 109,975 (-9,510) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, wide - range fluctuation, and a slight decline at the end", with sharp intraday fluctuations. The V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index and the correction of the US stock market suppressed the prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a strong price - holding atmosphere. In the Philippines, mine tender prices have continuously risen. A domestic southern factory recently purchased 1.3% grade nickel ore at a CIF price of 42 US dollars. The new round of 1.3% nickel ore tender of the main mine Benguet was concluded at an FOB price of 38 US dollars, showing a significant increase. In Indonesia, the market trading was dull, and the market is waiting for the official announcement of the HPM benchmark price on the 15th. It is expected that the benchmark price in the second half of the month will increase by about 3 - 4 US dollars compared with the first half [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 150,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 40,272 (836) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,658 (510) tons [2]. Strategy - The overall strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,850 yuan/ton and closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 214,016 (-42,112) lots, and the open interest was 134,879 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, rising high, and narrow - range strong fluctuation", supported by the rising price of nickel iron at the cost end and the firm spot price. It was more resistant to decline than Shanghai nickel and finally closed slightly higher, continuing the range - bound pattern [3]. - **Spot**: After the recent increase in spot prices, the upward momentum of the futures market is insufficient, market caution has increased, and trading has remained light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,800 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 40 to 240 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 982.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call covered updates on the financial, transportation, and materials industries, with a focus on investment opportunities and market dynamics for 2026 [2][4][46]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Industry Insights - The financial sector is entering a positive cycle, with expectations of a gradual rebound in financial asset yields and loan interest rates starting in the second half of the year [4][5]. - The overall fee income has returned to a good growth state, supported by high household financial asset growth and savings rates [4][5]. - The macroeconomic environment is viewed positively, with GDP growth expected to stabilize and PPI pressures decreasing, leading to a more favorable financial landscape [5][6]. - Loan growth has slowed to around 6%, with a rationalization in lending practices and a stable financial policy environment [11][12]. - The financial sector is expected to see a significant increase in valuations due to income rebounds and improved risk management [6][16]. Insurance Sector Outlook - The insurance industry is projected to experience strong growth in new business value and premium income in 2026, driven by attractive product offerings and market share gains in bancassurance channels [20][21]. - The stable interest rate environment and positive capital market sentiment are expected to enhance the profitability of insurance companies [22][23]. - The focus will shift from asset-driven growth to a balanced approach considering both assets and liabilities [20][21]. Securities Industry Trends - The securities sector is anticipated to benefit from a favorable operating environment, with active trading volumes and a supportive regulatory backdrop [29][30]. - IPO activity is expected to increase, particularly in the Hong Kong market, with a projected rise in both the number and size of offerings [31][32]. - The A-share market is also expected to see a recovery in financing volumes, with a focus on balancing dividends and capital raising [33][34]. - Institutional investment is on the rise, leading to increased demand for complex financial products and higher commission revenues for brokerage firms [35][36]. Transportation Industry Analysis - The transportation sector is viewed positively, particularly in aviation, shipping, and express delivery, with opportunities arising from supply-side changes and demand catalysts [48][49]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from structural supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, driven by rising travel penetration rates in China [53][54]. - The shipping sector is supported by a tight supply of compliant vessels and geopolitical factors affecting oil transportation [51][58]. - The express delivery market is undergoing consolidation, with potential for growth in overseas markets despite domestic challenges [59][60]. Materials Sector Insights - The materials sector, particularly copper and aluminum, is expected to perform well, with strong demand and supply constraints anticipated [62][64]. - Recent policy changes regarding export subsidies for solar panels and batteries are expected to impact market dynamics positively [64][65]. Additional Important Content - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining transparency in loan pricing and the gradual normalization of interest rates to support sustainable financial growth [10][12]. - The discussion emphasized the need for financial institutions to manage risks effectively while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in various sectors [17][18]. - The overall sentiment across industries is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on identifying and leveraging growth opportunities while managing inherent risks [46][48].