行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 5 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货8月4日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,114.3 | 2,100.0 | 2,122.3 | 2,112.0 | 8.0 | 0.38 | 480 | 4367 | -98 | | EC2510 | 1,432.1 | 1,415.9 | 1,421.8 | 1,404.2 | -10.3 | -0.72 | 30268 | 51053 | -1323 | | EC2512 | 1,687.9 | 1,670.0 | 1,677.2 | 1,670.3 | -10.7 | -0.63 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the face of high capacity pressure and the approaching off - season of demand, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Information EC Futures Contracts and Forward Curve - EC futures contract prices show different trends, with varying degrees of decline and increase in different contract periods, such as EC2508 at 2121.6 with a decline of - 724, and EC2510 at 1425.1 with a decline of - 2.63 [1] - The monthly spread of EC contracts also shows different changes, for example, EC2508 - 2510 is - 267.2, with a day - on - day change of 2.1 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS decreased by 3.50% compared with the previous period, and SCFI increased by 0.53%. CCFI (European route) increased by 4.46%, and NCE increased by 0.35%. TCI remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] European Route Capacity and Freight Volume - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity of the European - American route is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively. The overall capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is still some support for the basic cargo volume in the first half of August, but the freight forwarders' perception is poor [1] Recent European Route Quotations - Downstream is currently booking cabins for early August (weeks 31 - 32). The landing price in week 32 is about $3300 (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk), and the landing price in week 33 is about 2150 points. MSK's opening quotation for week 33 is $2800, and other shipping companies mainly follow the previous quotations [1] - Shipping companies have adjusted their quotations in the past few days. For example, HPL reduced the price by $200 to $3100 on Tuesday, and MSC reduced the price by $300 to $3340 on Wednesday [1] Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indexes - The report presents the seasonal trends of freight rate indexes for multiple routes, including European routes, TCI (East Mediterranean), TCI (West Mediterranean), TCI (East America), TCI (West America), TCI (South - West America), TCI (East Africa), TCI (Persian Gulf), TCI (South Africa), and TCI (West Africa) [1][5]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 31 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 7 月 21 日至 7 月 25 日，中国出口集装箱运输市场继续调整行情，多数航线市场 运价走低，综合指数小幅下跌。据国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025 年上半年， 中国 GDP 同比增长 5.3%，我国国民经济顶住压力稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长， 高质量发展取得新进展，经济表现出较强的韧性。7 月 25 日，上海航运交易所发 布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数为 1592.59 点，较上期下跌 3.3%。欧洲航线， 据标普全球发布的数据显示，欧元区 7 月综合 PMI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed trends with production indicators like power plant consumption and blast furnace operation rates having their own characteristics, while demand - side indicators such as new home sales and cement prices face challenges. Inflation presents a situation where CPI is affected by weakening pig prices and PPI is influenced by rising oil prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Consumption Oscillates at a High Level - Power plant consumption is in a high - level oscillation. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 88.21 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 218 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15. After rainfall, with the approaching of mid - dog days, power coal consumption is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is predicted to stay between 210 - 240 tons [6][17]. - Blast furnace operation rates remain at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operation rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. The operation rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 92.0% on July 25, also unchanged from July 18. At current price levels, steel mills' profits are relatively good, so they are reluctant to reduce production even in the off - season [21]. - Tire operation rates are weakly stable. On July 24, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, also a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operation rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region declined moderately. On July 24, the operation rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 92.1%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of downstream weaving machines was 55.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from July 17 [6][24]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 20.1 million square meters, a 31.4% decrease from June, an 18.8% decrease from July last year, a 34.7% decrease from July 2023, and a 52.9% decrease from July 2022. By region, sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased by 27.9%, 15.9%, and 12.3% year - on - year respectively [29]. - The car market's retail sales are steadily strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year. Since February 2025, the industry replacement rate has been stable above 60%, becoming the main driving force for the passenger car market [31]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22. Steel products have had inventory accumulation for two consecutive weeks. On July 25, the inventory of five major steel products was 9.271 million tons, a 50,000 - ton increase from July 18 [36]. - Cement prices are near previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions dropping by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. The national cement market continues to operate weakly with obvious regional differentiation [39]. - Glass prices have corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22. High inventory has dragged down prices [45]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3%. Except for the European route, the freight rates of the other three major ocean routes continued to fall [49]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices are weakening. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22. Terminal consumption is suppressed by high temperatures, and the long - term supply is abundant. In July, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase month - on - month and a 16.9% decrease year - on - year [56]. - The agricultural product price index oscillates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, the price changes were in the order of eggs (up 5.1%) > fruits (up 1.7%) > mutton (up 0.9%) > vegetables (up 0.7%) > chicken (up 0.4%) > beef (down 0.02%) > pork (down 1.2%) [60]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices are rising. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22. Concerns about crude oil supply support oil prices [63]. - Copper and aluminum prices are falling. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22. Most industrial product prices increased in July, and the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices narrowed [69][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - **EC**: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's trading price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a spread of 133.4, a trading volume of 2525, an open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1] - EC2510 had a trading price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a spread of 813.8, a trading volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1] - EC2512 had a trading price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a spread of 578.8, a trading volume of 1530, and an open interest change of 79 [1] - EC2602 had a trading price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a spread of 775.6, a trading volume of 2813, an open interest of 4456, and an open interest change of - 23 [1] - EC2604 had a trading price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a spread of 946.6, a trading volume of 2340, an open interest of 5242, and an open interest change of - 283 [1] - EC2606 had a trading price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a spread of 823.0, a trading volume of 323, an open interest of 832, and an open interest change of 44 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 had a spread of 680.4 compared to 685.1 the previous day and 661.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.7, and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1] - EC2510 - 2512 had a spread of - 235.0 compared to - 192.7 the previous day and - 196.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 42.3, and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1] - EC2512 - 2602 had a spread of 196.8 compared to 201.4 the previous day and 217.6 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.6, and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - The Terdar index on July 28, 2025, was 2316.56, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from two periods ago [1] - The SCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% from two periods ago [1] - The TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [1] European Line Supply and Demand - The average weekly capacity in August and September (tentatively) is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July had no significant pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume declined marginally and gradually entered the off - season [1] Recent European Line Quotation - In July, the price remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA Alliance dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, MSK's opening price dropped slightly (2900 - 3000 US dollars) and then rose slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 US dollars. The price in week 31 landed at about 3300 US dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [2] Related News - On July 28, the US - EU trade agreement may mean a long - term suspension of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The risk balance may lean towards no interest rate cut at all [3] - On July 29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3] - On July 29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3] - On July 29, German government will approve the 2026 budget with record - high investment [3]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月28日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,202.7 | 2,172.7 | 2,183.2 | 2,188.7 | -19.5 | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market is highly volatile, and the future freight rate trend is unclear. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and long - term contracts should consider taking profits when prices rise and wait for a stable callback to determine the subsequent direction [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market Data - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [1]. - Also on July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50%; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [1]. Economic Data in Different Regions - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 6) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were previously advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). If there is a further pullback today, consider taking profits; it was previously advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It was previously advised to take profits when each contract price rises, wait for a stable callback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - Intraday opening limit: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On July 27, the US Middle East envoy said that the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip were back on track, the Abraham Accords would be further expanded, and the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations would also resume [5]. - On July 27, it was reported that Syrian and Israeli officials held talks in Paris to ease the situation in southern Syria but did not reach an agreement. All parties agreed to continue talks [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present data on various types of futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, as well as related spot prices, spreads, and other indicators. They show the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical quantiles, and other information to help investors understand the market conditions of different futures products [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spread Data**: The report provides detailed price spread data for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 7.84, with a change of 2.73 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year quantile is 40.90% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on IRR, basis, and price spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL Treasury bond futures is given. For instance, the TS basis is 1.5781, with a change of 0.0115 from the previous day, and the historical quantile is 23.00% [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: It shows the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, spot prices, and basis. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 778.74 yuan/gram on July 24, down 1.79% from the previous day, and the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 3.64 [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The report includes spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe container shipping, container shipping index data, futures prices, and basis. For example, the MAERSK spot price for Shanghai - Europe on July 25 is 3104 dollars/FEU, up 0.16% from the previous day, and the EC2602 futures contract price on July 24 is 1562.3, up 5.75% from the previous day [6]. Data and Information Calendar - **Domestic and Overseas Data**: It lists domestic and overseas economic data and events to be released, such as the US June durable goods orders monthly rate, and domestic 2000 billion yuan 1 - year MLF due on a certain day [9].