Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a significant increase in agricultural futures, with all major contracts closing higher on December 24. Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures rose by 1.13%, closing at 1075.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures increased by 0.67%, closing at 450.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced a rise of 1.06%, closing at 522.50 cents per bushel [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise on December 24, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.66% to 15.30 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.30% to 64.20 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures increased by 0.40% to $5,982 per ton [1] - Coffee futures declined by 0.53% to 345.10 cents per pound [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3053, the highest price was 3057, the lowest price was 3041, the closing price was 3047, with no change (0.00% change), the trading volume was 94,913, the open interest was 181,527, and the open interest decreased by 60,292 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3016, the opening price was 3029, the highest price was 3031, the lowest price was 2997, the closing price was 3006, down 10 (-0.33% change), the trading volume was 136,340, the open interest was 633,980, and the open interest increased by 3,895 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2740, the opening price was 2741, the highest price was 2749, the lowest price was 2736, the closing price was 2745, up 5 (0.18% change), the trading volume was 568,687, the open interest was 2,151,398, and the open interest increased by 17,263 [6] External Market - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. Last week, there was insufficient driving force on the external market, and the December monthly supply - demand report was mediocre. The market has recently focused on the US soybean export end and the performance of new crops in South America [6] - In terms of exports, China is still in the process of purchasing US soybeans in an orderly manner. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans. However, currently, other countries are purchasing fewer US soybeans and more from Brazil, resulting in the current US soybean export sales volume being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - Regarding new crops in South America, the overall situation is bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growth period, with good rainfall overall. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the middle and late sowing stage and has not entered the critical weather - growth stage, and the rainfall is expected to improve in the next two weeks [6] Domestic Market - The increase in the auction frequency makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply in the future, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall insufficient bullish factors. In the short term, domestic futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and have a certain demand for a supplementary decline. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's adjustment of production in January, but there is no driving force at the current time [6] Group 3: Industry News USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending December 4, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 1.5525 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the current market year was 1.5521 million tons, a 40% increase from the previous week and a 34% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market had expected a net increase of 0.8 - 2 million tons. Among them, the net increase in export sales to the Chinese mainland was 1.011 million tons [7] - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the next market year was 40,000 tons, and the market had expected a net increase of 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 1.0711 million tons, a 33% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, the shipments to the Chinese mainland were 71,000 tons. The new sales of US soybeans for the current market year were 1.6726 million tons, and the new sales for the next market year were 40,000 tons [7][8] AgRural Forecast - AgRural predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 180.4 million tons, higher than the 178.5 million tons previously estimated in November. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with a production of 171.5 million tons in the previous season [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-24 糖价止跌反弹，郑棉走势偏强 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14140元/吨，较前一日变动+70元/吨，幅度+0.50%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15067元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，现货基差CF05+927，较前一日变动+11；3128B棉全国均价15213元/吨， 较前一日变动+59元/吨，现货基差CF05+1073，较前一日变动-11。 近期市场资讯，海关统计数据，2025年11月棉制品（包括含棉混纺制品，不仅指纯棉制品，下同）出口量64.64万 吨，同比增加9.84%，环比增加6.32%；出口金额52.74亿美元，同比减少10.67%，环比增加12.74%；出口单价为8.16 美元/千克，同比下跌18.64%，环比上涨6.11%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of bean meal remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories high and strong South American harvest expectations. The 05 contract price of bean meal follows the weak trend of US soybean prices, but the high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - For corn, the supply side has farmers reluctant to sell, and the demand side has cautious traders and mainly rigid - demand purchases from feed enterprises. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus should be on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.51% [1] - Spot: Tianjin bean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, Jiangsu was 3020 yuan/ton, and Guangdong was 3030 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. Fujian rapeseed meal was 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,000 tons. AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand situation remains stable, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price is weak, but high US soybean import costs provide support. Future focus is on imports and South American soybean growth [2] Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.40% [3] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin corn starch was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.744 million tons. Brazil exported 4.426 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume 45% higher than the previous year [3] Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, traders are cautious, and feed enterprises make mainly rigid - demand purchases. Inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both soybeans and peanuts are neutral [1][4][6] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has a generally loose supply - demand pattern, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand, and the price upside is limited. The peanut market is gradually increasing in supply, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight weakness [3][5] Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2605 contract was 4104.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.00 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 96, a change of +1 (32.14%) from the previous day. The spot prices in various regions of Heilongjiang remained flat [1][2] - Market Information: The overall transaction rate of the 210,000 - ton 2022 domestic soybean auction was 62.29%, with high - protein soybeans selling well and low - protein ones having many unsold. The previous import soybean auction's lower transaction rate alleviated supply concerns. The trading shipment speed slowed slightly, and farmers and traders were reluctant to sell [2] - Market Situation: The soybean futures main contract had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure persisted due to high port inventories (about 7.8 million tons) and lower forward import costs. The demand was weak, with stable southern purchases of Northeast soybeans but lack of terminal consumption growth. The state - reserve purchase provided some support but couldn't change the overall situation [3] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8055.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK03 - 1150.00, a change of +12.00 (-1.03%). The national peanut market's general price was stable with a slight decline, and the oil - mill contract prices were stable [4] - Market Information: The peanut futures main contract rebounded after a decline. The peanut market entered the concentrated listing period, with different farmer shipment rhythms in different regions. The supply was increasing. Some traders' prices were slightly soft, and some peanuts met the oil - mill purchase standards. The oil - mill new - season purchases started, and some had large arrivals [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the overall rebound strength has decreased, and it is likely to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended for intraday trading with a long - term bearish mindset [1][3]. - For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, there is a low - level rebound, and one should wait for the end of the rebound to find new selling points [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 23, the departure of a large number of short - sellers drove the overall rebound of the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Soybean oil: The Y2605 contract closed at 7772 yuan/ton, with a daily - closing - price increase of 0% and a daily reduction of 1716 lots; the Y2609 contract closed at 7718 yuan/ton, with a 0.31% increase and a reduction of 648 lots [1]. - Palm oil: The P2605 contract closed at 8486 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase and an increase of 3972 lots; the P2609 contract closed at 8372 yuan/ton, with a 0.89% increase and an increase of 759 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The OI2605 contract closed at 8847 yuan/ton, with a 0.19% decrease and an increase of 4135 lots; the OI2609 contract closed at 8848 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% decrease and an increase of 114 lots [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on December 23 due to strong US economic growth and potential supply disruptions. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 37 cents or 0.64%, settling at $58.38 per barrel [1]. - As of the end of November, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year, which pressured the soybean oil market [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 6.26% and the OER down 0.17% [1]. - Indonesia's B50 implementation has been postponed to the second half of 2026 [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from November 1 - 20. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - In October, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.8 million tons, a nearly 3% decline from the same period last year. Its crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [1]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.30% year - on - year increase [1][3]. Market Logic - Externally, supply concerns and a strong US economy drove the rebound of crude oil, but poor export expectations and the delay of the US biofuel policy pressured US soybean oil. For Malaysian palm oil, despite the rise in international crude oil, overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and inactive purchases from major consuming countries led to a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating short - term supply shortages, but high oil - mill crushing volumes and operating rates coexisted with cautious purchasing by traders. For palm oil, attention should be paid to whether the rebound of Malaysian palm oil can continue. Domestic palm oil inventory increased, and technically, the 05 contract faced pressure from the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, the inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the spot price fluctuated with the market, with the basis showing a narrow - range adjustment [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Exit short - term long positions in vegetable oils, conduct intraday trading for new orders, and maintain a long - term bearish mindset. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [3]. - Arbitrage: None available [3]. Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 23, the double - meal futures were boosted by the possible conversion of Cofco auctions into targeted sales. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Bean meal: The M2605 contract closed with a 0.15% increase and an increase of 17,263 lots; the M2609 contract closed with a 0.21% increase and an increase of 5,965 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The RM2605 contract closed with a 0.51% increase and an increase of 15,829 lots; the RM2609 contract closed with a 0.42% increase and an increase of 1,550 lots [3]. Important Information - The USDA estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted a 4% increase in US soybean planting in 2026, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. - As of December 11, 97% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was completed, up from 94% a week ago. The stable rainfall was beneficial for the final planting and growth [3][4]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons [4]. - As of December 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [4]. - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [4]. - US farmers welcomed the $12 billion agricultural aid plan but believed it was far from enough to cover the losses of $34 - 44 billion this year [4]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 109,200 tons, a 1.38% increase from last week; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a 28.36% decrease from last week. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [3][4]. - On December 19, the planned auction of imported soybeans by Cofco was 550,143.732 tons, with an actual transaction of 179,701.674 tons, a transaction rate of 32.66%, and an average transaction price of 3751 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Externally, the strengthening of international crude oil and the depreciation of the US dollar drove US soybeans to stop falling and stabilize. Domestically, most oil - mill fixed - price quotes remained stable, with individual increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Under high - inventory pressure, traders replenished stocks in a rolling manner, and feed mills maintained safety stocks and made rigid purchases. For rapeseed meal, the supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China was relatively tight, so the basis quotes rose slightly, and it is expected to have strong support below and fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Wait for the end of the low - level rebound of bean meal and rapeseed meal to find new selling points. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [4][5]. - Arbitrage: None available [5].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月23日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大 豆期货跌0.19%报1063.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.06%报447.25美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨0.44%报 517.75美分/蒲式耳。 ...

本作物年度，美国小麦累计出口销量为7.26亿蒲式耳，同比增长1.33亿蒲式耳，增幅22%；玉米累计出 口销量创下18.73亿蒲式耳历史新高，同比增长4.44亿蒲式耳，增幅31%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约12月23日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价23日涨跌不一。 每年所谓的"圣诞老人行情"与圣诞节和新年前的空头回补有关。这波行情22日开始，但由于市场大豆、 小麦和玉米供应充足，市场分析机构认为农产品期价上涨空间不大。3月玉米期价当日挑战4.50美元图 表阻力价位，但未能突破；3月大豆期价反弹但未能突破10.70美元；3月芝加哥小麦期价则在5.20-5.25 美元之间徘徊。巴西天气预报显示，巴西大豆产量有望创历史新高。 美国每日销售数据显示，中国已预订120万吨美国大豆。 美国农业部当日公布的数据显示，截至12月11日当周，美国小麦出口销量1590万蒲式耳，玉米出口销量 6870万蒲式耳， 大豆出口销量8800万蒲式耳。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.48美元，比前一交易日 上涨0.5美分，涨幅为0.11%；小麦2026年3月合约收于 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 【粕类日报】供应压力仍存 盘面阶段性反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 3047 | - 5 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 1 0 | | 0 5 | 2745 | 4 | 东莞 | 290 | 280 | | | 0 9 | 2863 | 6 | 张家港 | 290 | 280 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 280 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | 2417 | 5 | 南通 | 3 | 8 | - 5 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2349 | 1 2 | ...