Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Given the volatile macro - sentiment, the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. - Soybean oil: It is expected to fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean meal: After overnight trading, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It is expected to rebound and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Sugar: It is expected to trade in a narrow range [2]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: The bullish expectation for the spot market has failed, leading to a collapse in sentiment [2]. - Live pigs: The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength will be maintained [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,838 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and night - session closing price was 8,890 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.59%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.36% [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons. Malaysia's expected palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased by 25.01% compared to the previous month. The Malaysian government plans to allocate 1.4 billion ringgit in five years to support small - scale palm oil replanting [5][7]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3,024 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.67%, and night - session closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.79%. DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4,117 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.17% [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering. However, Brazil's soybean harvest and the strong US soybean production outlook are suppressing price increases. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 73% [12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of soybean meal is +1 (strong), and that of soybean is 0 (neutral) [12]. Corn - **Fundamental data**: C2509's day - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.52%, and night - session closing price was 2,258 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.14%. The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,718 yuan/ton [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated. India's monsoon rainfall is higher than the long - period average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of sugar is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,675 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.66%, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. The price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 90 yuan/ton to 14,992 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and industry news**: The cotton spot trading has slightly weakened, and the cotton yarn market has not changed much. The ICE cotton futures rose by 0.3% [22]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,360 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 4.03%. The price of Liaoning's spot eggs decreased from 3.00 yuan/jin to 2.90 yuan/jin [27]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan was 14,130 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13,940 yuan/ton [31]. - **Market logic**: The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August has failed. The supply pressure in August is high, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of live pigs is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning's 308 common peanuts decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton. PK510's closing price was 8,084 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12% [35]. - **Spot market focus**: In Henan, the inventory trading is the main activity, and the new peanut growth is affected by drought in some areas. In Jilin, the new peanut growth is good [36]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [37].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆贴水持续居高不下，进口成本结构固化，国内豆类期价走势强于美豆，短期豆粕市场 的驱动依然来自远期的供应收紧预期和成本推动。豆粕期价继续保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates mixed performance in the Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans, with corn prices declining, wheat prices stable, and soybean prices increasing slightly [1] - On August 4, the most active December corn contract closed at $4.07 per bushel, down 3.75 cents or 0.91% from the previous trading day, while the September wheat contract remained unchanged at $5.17 per bushel, and the November soybean contract rose by 5.25 cents or 0.53% to $9.95 per bushel [1] - China is seeking to increase imports of South American soybeans for October and November, and the market anticipates that U.S. soybean exports for the 2025-2026 season will not exceed 1.5 billion bushels [1] Group 2 - The cumulative export inspection volumes for the current crop year are reported as 2.423 billion bushels for corn, 1.757 billion bushels for soybeans, and 143 million bushels for wheat [2] - U.S. rice prices have fallen to their lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, potentially breaking a long-standing upward trend since 2003, with global demand slowing down, putting pressure on rice valuations [2] - Weather forecasts indicate dry conditions in the Midwest this week, with increased chances of rain over the weekend, which is favorable for corn and soybean growth [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Eggs, corn, and sugar are in a downward trend, while soybean meal has limited upward space and may face downward pressure later. Cotton is in a short - term rebound but the downward trend remains. Other products such as palm oil, pork, etc. also show different degrees of decline or unfavorable fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of eggs has plummeted, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant with high egg - laying hen inventory, slow old - hen culling, and increasing newly - laid hens. The demand side has a postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle, and high - temperature weather has increased egg substitutes and affected logistics, leading to low - price selling by farmers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is running far below the moving - average system, with a MACD death cross and a significant increase in the green column, showing a weak technical pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 3330 and resistance at 3400 [3]. Corn - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of corn continues to decline. The regular auction of corn by the State Grain Reserve, wheat substitution, and the approaching listing of spring corn have increased supply. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is weak [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 2300 integer mark, with a MACD death cross below the zero axis and the appearance of a green column, indicating a weak technical pattern [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 2274 and resistance at 2300 [4]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of soybean meal fluctuates upward but with limited amplitude. The increase in soybean import costs provides support, and the downstream demand has slightly improved. However, the high - volume crushing of oil mills has led to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has once stood above the moving - average system, showing a slightly strong technical pattern [6]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [6]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounds at a low level due to short - covering, but the downward trend remains. The new - year cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - duty quotas. The textile industry is in a slack season with insufficient orders [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the medium - term moving average, with a MACD death cross and a continuous green column, showing a weak technical pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13715 [8]. Soybean Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil fluctuates narrowly at a high level. High - volume crushing by domestic oil mills has led to continuous inventory accumulation, but exports to India have boosted prices. The supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still above the moving - average system, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a continuous red MACD column, showing a strong technical pattern [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 8176 and resistance at 8300 [10]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil fluctuates downward. The weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia have pressured the price, and the domestic demand is still sluggish [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 8740 and resistance at 8850 [12]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of pigs continues to decline, hitting a one - and - a - half - month low. The supply has increased due to factors such as disease risks and incremental slaughter by group pig enterprises, while the demand is weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has continuously closed with negative lines, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [14]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, hitting a one - month low. The overseas market has increased production, and the domestic market is under pressure from the expected increase in imported sugar [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the moving - average system and expanded the downward space, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 5700 and resistance at 5750 [16]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The main 2601 contract of jujubes rises and then falls, fluctuating at a high level. The estimated new - jujube production is slightly lower than expected, and the consumption is in the off - season. The futures market is still in a game about the new - jujube production reduction [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price fluctuates above the moving averages, with a MACD golden cross and an enlarged red column [19]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 10810 and resistance at 11150 [19]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds with the support of short - covering, but the space may be limited. The price of early - maturing apples in the west is falling, and the trading of stored apples in Shandong is slow [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7865 [22].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - PK604: Closing price 7954, down 2 (-0.03%); Volume 14, up 27.27%; Open interest 228, up 1.79% [3] - PK510: Closing price 8084, down 10 (-0.12%); Volume 34,124, up 19.70%; Open interest 98,881, down 0.58% [3] - PK601: Closing price 7948, up 6 (0.08%); Volume 2,450, up 8.17%; Open interest 13,173, up 5.87% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang 9000, Shandong Jining 8400, Shandong Linyi 8400, Rizhao peanut meal 3300, Rizhao soybean meal 2920, peanut oil 15000, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 8330 [3] - Price changes: Henan Nanyang 0, Shandong Jining 0, Shandong Linyi 0, Rizhao peanut meal 0, Rizhao soybean meal 20, peanut oil 0, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 40 [3] - Basis: Henan Nanyang 916, Shandong Jining 316, Shandong Linyi 316, soybean meal - peanut meal 1, peanut oil - soybean oil 6670 [3] Import Prices - Sudanese peanuts: 8250, unchanged [3] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread: - 6, up 8; PK04 - PK10 spread: - 130, up 8; PK10 - PK01 spread: 136, down 16 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices: Henan prices fell, Northeast prices dropped. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general peanuts at 4.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Liaoning Changtu 4.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Henan Baisha general peanuts at 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. Imported Sudanese refined peanuts at 8300 yuan/ton, stable [5] - Peanut oil: Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing. Mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, theoretical break - even price for mills at 8110 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton, stable; small - squeezed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton, stable [5] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal stable at 2890 yuan/ton. Peanut meal - soybean meal unit protein spread is high, short - term peanut meal is weak, 48 - protein peanut meal at 3250 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell PK510 after a rebound as it is in a low - level oscillation [10][11] - Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [15][22][23]

豆粕生猪：内强外弱延续 豆粕小幅走强 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗冷 MISHI FITURE | | | 粕类生猪每日数据追踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 3055 | 3037 | 18.00 | 0.59% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2746 | 2738 | 8.00 | 0.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 3024 | 3010 | 14.00 | 0.47% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 01 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2432 | 2409 | 23.00 | 0.95% | | 期間 | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月4日 | 元/吨 | 2380 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, the corn supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of shipments by some traders in the Northeast and continuous auctions of imported corn. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively sufficient, leading to a generally weak corn futures price [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The supply pressure has significantly weakened as the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 17885 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 152541 hands, down 500 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 14811 hands, up 3275 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 411 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; the total position is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2401.37 yuan/ton, down 1.38 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1928.7 yuan/ton, down 4.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main contract is 46 yuan, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively; the predicted sowing areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventory at southern ports is 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports is 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.92%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.92% and 6.91% respectively, down 2.64% and 2.65% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, with a month - on - month increase of less than 1% and a slight decrease compared to June last year [2]. - As of July 30, the corn harvest progress in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 88.0%, 4% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of July 27, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].

Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on soybean futures, focusing on the market trends, fundamental analysis, and future outlook of soybeans in July 2025 [3][9]. Market Trends Domestic Market - In July, the domestic soybean meal futures (Lianbo) showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main 09 contract closed up 1.32% for the month [3][9]. International Market - The external CBOT soybean futures showed a weak trend, closing down 3.63% in July. The favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the promising prospect of a bumper harvest were the main reasons for the pressure on both domestic and international markets [3][9]. Differentiation - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the domestic and international markets showed differentiation, with the domestic Lianbo being more resilient than the external US soybeans [3][9]. Fundamental Analysis Global Situation - In the 25/26 season, US soybeans are in the growing stage. The planting progress is relatively fast, and there are currently no opportunities for weather - related speculation. As of the week of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 67% in the same period last year, and the currently predicted yield of 52.5 bushels per acre is the highest in history [11]. - According to USDA planting area data, the planting area this year is 83.4 million acres, a 4% decrease from 87.05 million acres last year. Due to the reduction in the planting area, the USDA predicts that the US soybean production this year may decrease by 860,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - The USDA's adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit this year is expected to start from the August supply - demand report. Weather is the main factor affecting the yield. Currently in the weather - speculation window period, the rainfall in the growing areas may decrease in the next two weeks, so continuous tracking of the weather changes in the growing areas is needed [11]. Chinese Market - From January to June 2025, the cumulative arrival of imported soybeans in China was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase compared with the same period last year. Due to the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, the soybean imports in May and June increased significantly. According to Mysteel data, the expected arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is 10.6925 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply is still abundant [2][15]. - On the demand side, as of August 1, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 8.05 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic oil mills remained at a high level, the inventory pressure continued to increase, and oil mills generally urged customers to pick up goods. However, the downstream demand has slightly improved, the amount of soybean meal used by feed enterprises has increased moderately, the inventory digestion has accelerated, and the inventory shows a downward trend [2][15]. Future Outlook - Currently, the domestic spot market is still digesting the pressure of the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, while the futures market mainly trades US soybeans. This year, the US soybean planting progress is fast, and there are no opportunities for weather - related speculation for now. The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, compared with 68% in the same period last year. At present, a bumper harvest of US soybeans is expected, but due to tariff policies, the uncertainty of importing US soybeans still exists [2][19]. - Under the pressure of global supply abundance, the CBOT soybean futures fell below the 1000 mark last month. Considering cost support, it is expected that there may still be fluctuations around the integer mark in the short term. The domestic Lianbo is relatively more resilient than the external market and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be focused on the guidance of the USDA's August forecast data on the US soybean yield per unit [2][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply in the US, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small fluctuating increase due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially [3]. - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot end may start to destock at the end of September [5]. - The EPA policy, the expected B50 policy in the long - term, and the limited supply of Southeast Asian palm oil have raised the annual operation center of oils and fats. However, as of now, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still bearish factors [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [12][13]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline. The downstream consumption is average, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [15][16]. - The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week, but the increase may be limited due to the large inventory [18]. - The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is in a low - valuation and oversupplied state. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation [3][5]. - **Weather**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts at low levels [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in June showed a downward trend, while the production in July increased year - on - year. The export of Indonesian palm oil from January to June increased by 2.69% year - on - year, and the average export price increased by 22.2% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the center of the oils and fats market. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, considering the high valuation and other factors, it should be regarded as a volatile market [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline on Friday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and the estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline on Friday. The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased compared with last week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the situation of Sino - US economic and trade talks and the fundamentals, the short - term trend of cotton is bearish [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. The supply is large, but the demand from traders has increased. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is large, and the near - month short positions can continue to squeeze the premium. In the medium - term, short positions can be established after the price rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The forward contracts have higher valuations. The monthly spread may show a positive structure for near - term contracts and a reverse structure for far - term contracts. More attention should be paid to the opportunities in monthly spreads [22].