Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Core Insights - The South Korean government forecasts that the country's export value will exceed $700 billion for the first time in 2025, setting a new historical record, although exports excluding semiconductors are expected to decline year-on-year [1][3][4]. Export Performance - From January to November, South Korea's total export value reached $640.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest level for the same period, surpassing the previous record of $628.7 billion in 2022 [1][3]. - Exports excluding semiconductors amounted to $487.6 billion during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [5]. Sector-Specific Trends - The automotive, shipbuilding, biopharmaceutical, and computer sectors saw export growth of 2%, 28.6%, 7%, and 0.4%, respectively, while all other sectors experienced declines [5]. - Notable declines were observed in machinery exports (down 8.9%), petroleum products (down 11.1%), petrochemicals (down 11.7%), and steel exports (down 8.8%). Additionally, exports of automotive parts, displays, home appliances, and secondary batteries fell by 6.3%, 10.3%, 9.4%, and 11.8%, respectively [5]. Semiconductor Dependency - In November, semiconductors accounted for 28.3% of South Korea's total export value, the highest proportion recorded this year, raising concerns about the country's over-reliance on the semiconductor industry [5]. - Historically, from 2002 to 2010, semiconductors represented about 10% of South Korea's total exports [5].

Economic Performance - Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 98,565.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the third-largest economy in China[2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the GDP reached 77,115.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The province's industrial investment helped mitigate the negative impact of declining real estate investment, contributing to overall investment growth[2] Fiscal Strength - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue was 7,711.74 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the previous year, ranking fifth nationally[4] - The tax ratio was 65.35%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous year, placing it 13th among provinces[4] - Government fund budget revenue fell to 4,832.12 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% due to declining land transaction prices[4] Debt Situation - By the end of 2024, Shandong's government debt reached 28,428.81 billion yuan, an 18.9% increase from 2023, ranking second nationally[7] - The debt-to-budget revenue ratio was 4.46 times, indicating a moderate level of risk compared to other provinces[7] - The debt growth was concentrated in larger cities, with Qingdao and Jinan having the highest debt levels at 4,382.57 billion yuan and 3,770.56 billion yuan, respectively[8] City-Level Analysis - Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai led the provincial economy with GDPs of 16,719.46 billion yuan, 13,527.60 billion yuan, and 10,782.83 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 41.6% of the province's total GDP[3] - Most cities experienced a slowdown in economic growth, with the average growth rate around 5% to 7%[3] - In 2024, the general public budget revenue for Qingdao and Jinan was 1,339.26 billion yuan and 1,083.05 billion yuan, respectively, showing a clear leading advantage[5]

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][19][26] - The model evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, referencing studies by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of stocks near their 52-week highs as potential leaders in market uptrends [11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days [26][28][29] - The report identifies 41 "stable new high stocks" based on the above criteria, with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Notable industries include non-ferrous metals and machinery [29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that cyclical and manufacturing sectors have the highest number of stocks achieving new highs, with cyclical stocks leading in non-ferrous metals and manufacturing stocks excelling in machinery [19][20][29]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the concept that stocks nearing their 52-week high tend to outperform those further away from their highs, as supported by prior research and methodologies like CANSLIM and momentum strategies[11][18] - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ - **Closet**: The latest closing price - **ts\_max(Close, 250)**: The maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value representing the degree of decline[11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices that are leading the market trends, serving as a useful tool for tracking momentum and market hotspots[11][18] Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother momentum stocks tend to outperform those with jumpy price paths[26] - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are selected from those that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, based on the following criteria: 1. **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past 3 months 2. **Relative Strength**: Top 20% in 250-day price performance 3. **Price Stability**: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to total price movement - **Sustained New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days 4. **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days, with the top 50 stocks selected based on rankings[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes smooth momentum and sustained trends, which are less likely to attract excessive attention, potentially leading to stronger momentum effects[26] --- Model Backtesting Results 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distances**: - Shanghai Composite: 3.14% - Shenzhen Component: 4.21% - CSI 300: 3.44% - CSI 500: 5.98% - CSI 1000: 4.00% - CSI 2000: 2.50% - ChiNext Index: 6.47% - STAR 50 Index: 13.84%[12][33] Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 41 stocks were identified as stable new high stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangku Technology, and Yaxiang Jicheng[29][34] - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical Sector: 17 stocks, with the majority in the non-ferrous metals industry - Manufacturing Sector: 13 stocks, with the majority in the machinery industry[29][34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's latest closing price compared to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ - **Closet**: The latest closing price - **ts\_max(Close, 250)**: The maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the smoothness of a stock's price movement, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the ratio of price displacement to the total price movement over a given period[26] Factor Name: Sustained New Highs - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the consistency of a stock's ability to maintain new highs over time, reflecting sustained momentum[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[28] Factor Name: Trend Continuity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the short-term continuation of a stock's trend, emphasizing recent momentum[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days, with stocks ranked and selected based on this metric[28] --- Factor Backtesting Results 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distances**: - Shanghai Composite: 3.14% - Shenzhen Component: 4.21% - CSI 300: 3.44% - CSI 500: 5.98% - CSI 1000: 4.00% - CSI 2000: 2.50% - ChiNext Index: 6.47% - STAR 50 Index: 13.84%[12][33] Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 41 stocks were identified, with the majority belonging to the cyclical and manufacturing sectors[29][34] Sustained New Highs Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Stocks with consistent new highs over the past 120 days were prioritized, with examples including Zhongji Xuchuang and Guangku Technology[29][34] Trend Continuity Factor - **Selected Stocks**: Stocks with the highest rankings in 5-day trend continuity were included, emphasizing short-term momentum[28][29]

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月5日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.14%、 4.21%、3.44%、5.98%、4.00%、2.50%、6.47%、13.84%。中信一级行业指数中家电、轻工制造、有色金属、通信、建材行业指数距离250日新高 较近，食品饮料、综合金融、银行、医药、商贸零售行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，卫星互联网、卫星导航、家用电器、家居用品、林木、黄 金、家用电器等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年12月5日，共965只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是基础化工、电力设备及新能源、机械行业，创新 高个股数量占比最高的是煤炭、纺织服装、石油石化行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、制造板块创新高股票数量最多；按照 ...

Core Insights - Huachuang Securities highlights four major investment directions for the CSI A500 index: technology innovation, cyclical industries, overseas expansion, and the real estate chain [1] Group 1: Investment Directions - Technology innovation focuses on robust growth at the endpoint and the commercialization of ToB, with an emphasis on the need to digest valuations in the tech sector [1] - Cyclical industries are expected to benefit from price elasticity due to supply clearing, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, coal, construction materials, and machinery [1] - Overseas expansion aims to enhance global competitiveness, with a focus on electric new energy, machinery, communication equipment, and energy metals [1] - The real estate chain is anticipated to recover from mid-term bottoming out, with high potential in construction, building materials, home furnishings, appliances, and property management [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The technology manufacturing sector is seeing a steady increase in return on equity (ROE) amid the transition of old and new growth drivers [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which is leading in the number of accounts among similar products, being more than three times that of the second-ranked fund [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance on December 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875.79 points, down 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4% to 13006.72 points. The STAR 50 Index increased by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.01%. The total trading volume of the A-share market was 156.17 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 9 sectors saw gains, with electronics, defense, and machinery leading the increases. Conversely, sectors such as retail, consumer services, and textiles experienced significant declines. Notably, indices related to concepts like Moore Threads, satellite internet, and semiconductor equipment performed actively [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - On December 4, the U.S. stock market exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.07%, the S&P 500 Index rising by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.22%. Notable declines were seen in 3M Company and UnitedHealth Group, both dropping over 2%. The index tracking seven major U.S. tech companies rose by 0.4%, with Facebook gaining over 3% and NVIDIA increasing by more than 2% [2][4] News Highlights - President Xi Jinping held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, emphasizing the importance of mutual understanding and support between China and France, regardless of external changes. The two leaders discussed various cooperation agreements in fields such as nuclear energy, agriculture, education, and environmental protection [3][12][15] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that the Chinese government is conducting export controls on rare earth-related items in accordance with the law, ensuring compliance for civilian use applications [17][18] - The State Administration for Market Regulation indicated that new national standards for electric bicycles will be included in the 2026 supervision and inspection plan, focusing on safety inspection items [19] - The National Bio-Manufacturing Industry Innovation Center officially began trial operations, focusing on green low-carbon, bio-agriculture, and healthcare sectors [21]

Core Views - The report suggests that 2026 may witness a structural recovery in earnings, leading to a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, despite high valuations [5][17] - The main theme for 2026 is expected to be a continuation of loose liquidity and a structural recovery in earnings, with potential for strong performance in technology and cyclical industries [6][37] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates, maintaining a loose liquidity environment domestically [19][24] - Exports are anticipated to face high base pressure but may still show resilience, particularly in high-tech products and emerging markets [26][27] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by proactive fiscal policies and increased issuance of special bonds [28] - Real estate investment growth is likely to remain weak, although policies may ease, leading to a gradual stabilization in housing prices and sales [30] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to stabilize and recover, driven by policies promoting new productive forces and equipment upgrades [32] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on technology growth and cyclical growth as the main allocation themes for 2026, with specific attention to sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric new energy, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military industry, and non-bank financials [7] - Large-cap and small-cap stocks are expected to perform relatively well, with a tilt towards cyclical styles [7] Earnings Recovery - Earnings in the technology and cyclical sectors are expected to continue rising, contributing positively to overall A-share performance [37][39] - The report highlights that fiscal policy support may enhance corporate earnings growth, similar to past instances of fiscal stimulus [39]