Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Market Sentiment Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from a structural perspective to quantify market sentiment using various sub-indicators[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses sub-indicators such as industry trading volatility, trading crowding, price-volume consistency, Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR 50) trading proportion, industry trend, RSI, main buying force, PCR combined with VIX, and financing balance ratio[8] - Each sub-indicator is scored based on its sentiment direction and position within Bollinger Bands. Scores are categorized as (-1, 0, 1)[8] - The final sentiment structural indicator is the 20-day moving average of the summed scores. The indicator fluctuates around 0 within the range of [-6, 6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment trends and provides actionable insights for timing decisions[8] 2. Model Name: Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term and short-term trends of indices using N-day moving averages to generate timing signals[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - For N moving averages (N=360 for long-term, N=60 for short-term), scores are assigned based on the relative position of adjacent moving averages. If a shorter moving average is above a longer one, it scores 1; otherwise, it scores 0[18] - The scores are standardized to a 0-100 scale and averaged to derive the trend score at a specific time point[18] - Long/short-term timing signals are generated based on the crossover of the trend score with its 100/20-day moving average[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear signals for sector rotation and market style preferences, favoring value and defensive sectors in the current environment[18] 3. Model Name: RSI Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to compare the relative strength of different market styles (e.g., growth vs. value, small-cap vs. large-cap)[22] - **Model Construction Process**: - For two indices A and B, calculate the standardized ratio of their net values over a fixed period[22] - Compute the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days, where gains on down days are treated as 0 and losses on up days are treated as 0[22] - RSI formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with values above 50 indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - The model calculates 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day RSI values. When the 20-day RSI exceeds the 60-day RSI, the numerator style is favored; otherwise, the denominator style is favored[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies style dominance, currently favoring large-cap and value styles while noting short-term strengthening of growth and small-cap styles[22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Market Sentiment Timing Model - Sentiment indicator value as of April 30, 2025: 0.8, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[9] 2. Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - Short-term signals: Positive for sectors like beauty care (72.88), utilities (86.44), banking (74.58), and oil & petrochemicals (22.03)[19] - Long-term signals: Positive for sectors like banking (95.54), machinery (78.55), and steel (51.25)[19] 3. RSI Style Timing Model - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: RSI - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative strength of buying and selling forces over a specific period[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days[22] - Formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure of market momentum and style preferences[22] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. RSI - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25]

来源：世界风情画（ID：finkeeper） | 时间 | 现金和现金等价物 (亿美元) | 賞冊 (1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2019 | 641.75 | { | | 2020 | 479.9 | | | 2021 | 358.11 | 1 | | 2022 | 358.11 | ( | | 2023 | 380.22 | 1 | | 2024 | 443.33 | 2 | | 2025Q1st | 477.29 | 3 | 这正是巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司正因史上最大规模的"囤现金"潮，陷入到人们的物议纷至沓来之际——伯克希尔哈撒韦2025年一季度末现金头寸 升至3477亿美元（2024年四季度末为3342亿美元），再创历史新高。 尽管从股价变化上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司周线上几乎看不出2025年一季度美国GDP年率下降0.1%，以及特朗普发起新贸易战导致美股普遍下跌的危机。 公司总股本甚至从2024年11月的143.67万股扩大到了143.82万股。 故伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司到2025年5月5日，总市值达到了11640.0717亿美元，比去年11月的9740.826亿美元扩 ...

对咱们投资者来说，得从鲍威尔的话里抓三个重点：第一，看他怎么评价当前通胀。如果强调"通胀回落但仍需观察"，说明美联储还是偏谨慎；要是提 到"可持续性"，那可能在为长期维持高利率铺路。第二，留意他对经济前景的描述。要是大谈劳动力市场过热，那降息预期可能要往后推；反之，若提 到"全球风险"，说不定在为未来宽松留口子。第三，关注他怎么回应政治压力。这关系到美联储的独立性，要是鲍威尔态度强硬，美元短期可能撑一撑； 要是软了，市场可能会重新定价。 哈喽各位老铁，我是帮主郑重。这两天全球资本市场都在盯着一个事儿——美联储周四凌晨的利率决议。虽说市场早有预判，但咱们做投资的，就得把 事儿往深了扒，今儿就来唠唠这背后的门道。 先给大家吃颗定心丸，根据市场预期工具的数据，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率超过96%，基本算是板上钉钉的事儿。为啥这么稳？看看最新的美国数 据就明白了：4月非农就业人数蹦到了17.7万，远超预期的13.8万，劳动力市场还是硬邦邦的；再看通胀，3月PCE物价指数同比涨2.3%，核心PCE也降到 2.6%，这俩数据就像给美联储吃了降压药，短期加息压力不大，降息更犯不上。 不过啊，这事儿没那么简单。最近白宫和美 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 美联储降息预期降温，波折与反复 投资要点 【债市方面】4 月宏观数据即将公布，持债待涨。4 月关税影响逐渐加大， 后续公布的通胀、金融、经济数据或将逐渐体现出压力。此外短期内政策或侧 重于落实已部署措施，增量尚需等待，利率仍有下行可能，短期耐心等待。 分析师：刘芳 【股市方面】短期内宏观数据或存在扰动，财报季过后，业绩表现较好的板 块或更受青睐。行业方面，重点关注高股息（银行、公用事业）的防御性板 块；以及业绩报盈利上行的领域，受国补影响的部分可选消费板块（消费电 子、家电等），非能源周期板块（钢铁、有色），以及 TMT、农林牧渔等。 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《落实"先手"政策，充实"后手" 储备———2025 年 4 月政治局会议解 ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway reported a significant decline in operating profit for Q1 2025, dropping to $9.641 billion from $11.222 billion year-over-year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 63% to $4.6 billion, despite revenue remaining stable at $89.7 billion [1] - Investment losses amounted to $5.038 billion, primarily due to market volatility and unfavorable exchange rates [2] Financial Performance - Operating profit decreased to $9.641 billion from $11.222 billion year-over-year [1] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $89.7 billion, roughly unchanged from the previous year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $4.6 billion, a 63% decline compared to the same quarter last year [1] Business Segments - The insurance segment faced challenges, incurring a loss of $1.3 billion due to wildfires in Southern California [1] - Energy business performed well, with net profit increasing by nearly 50%, although natural gas profits were impacted by high interest rates [1] - The investment segment suffered the most, with a total loss of $5.038 billion attributed to stock market fluctuations and currency issues [2] Market Sentiment - Despite the investment losses, Berkshire's stock price increased by 18.86% year-to-date, marking ten consecutive months of gains [3] - The price-to-book ratio reached 1.79, the highest since 2007, and the projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 25, above the S&P 500's approximate 20 [3] - The market continues to show confidence in Berkshire's long-term fundamentals, reflecting institutional trust in the company's management [3] Strategic Considerations - Berkshire holds $347.7 billion in cash, maintaining its status as a "cash king" [2] - The company expressed concerns over the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policies and geopolitical risks, affecting product costs and supply chains [2] - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of not using trade as a weapon, advocating for a wealthier world that benefits all [3]

宁泉资产李源海：科技投资应尽量避免追逐估值过高的热门标的 智通财经5月4日电，由兴证全球基金、智通财经、腾讯新闻共同主办的"投资·可为|2025年度中国投资人 峰会"奥马哈场正在进行中。宁泉资产研究总监兼投资经理李源海提到，在本轮科技浪潮中聚焦AI应用 进展。他认为，一个新的技术革命，最终要体现在提高人类效率上，体现在相关产品的收入实现情况 上，因此在投资品种选择上会尽量避免追逐估值过高的热门标的，更偏好技术成熟、业务模式简单并且 现金流稳定的科技公司。目前，宁泉资产在行业和板块配置上，重点侧重于内需增长相关领域，如地产 物业、公用事业、家电消费、化工以及新能源等。（记者 周晓雅） ...

十大讲话要点： 1、谈接班人： 计划在年底退休，阿贝尔在各方面都做好了担任伯克希尔哈CEO的准备，将建议董事会在年底前任命阿贝尔为公司CEO。 2、谈对公司的持股 ：无意出售伯克希尔的任何一股股票，但会逐步捐赠出去。 3、谈关税问题： 关税政策"让75亿人不满"，美国应该寻求与世界其他国家进行贸易，不应该把贸易当成武器，通过加征关税激怒全球，这是 一个重大错误，这种做法已经扰乱了全球市场。 4、谈美国财政政策： 美国的财政问题令我害怕，但这也不是美国独有的问题。美国的财政赤字是不可持续的，可能会变得无法控制，担心政 府作出的决定会导致美元走弱。 5、关于美国的经济前景： 不会为美国的现状感到沮丧，美国的财政政策是我最担忧的问题，但这也不是美国独有的问题。 6、谈美股大幅波动： 与历史上的大崩盘相比，过去几十天的下跌根本不算什么。 7、谈人工智能： AI将会成为一夜改变游戏规则的工具，我们要改变做事的方式评估风险，对风险进行评价。我不会把所有的东西绕着AI进行 投资和发展；如果AI里面有选择的话，应该让阿吉特·贾恩来选择。 8、谈日本市场： 不会卖掉手里的5家日本贸易公司股票，在未来50年我们希望公司是由它们经 ...

巴菲特炒股也亏了。 | | | First Quarter | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025 | 2024 | | Revenues: | | | | | Insurance and Other: | | | | | Insurance premiums earned | S | 21.804 $ | 21.474 | | Sales and service revenues | | 47,815 | 49.933 | | Leasing revenues | | 2.431 | 2,222 | | Interest, dividend and other investment income | | 5.632 | 4,338 | | | | 77.682 | 77,967 | | Railroad, Utilities and Energy: | | | | | Freight rail transportation revenues | | 5.671 | 5.637 | | Utility and energy operating revenues | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Berkshire Hathaway's significant decline in net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to reduced investment income, with net profit at $4.603 billion, down 64% year-over-year [1][2][44] - Revenue for Q1 2025 remained relatively stable at $89.725 billion compared to the previous year, while insurance underwriting income dropped to $1.336 billion, nearly halving due to impacts from events like the Southern California wildfires [1][2][16] - The company reported an investment loss of $5.038 billion in Q1 2025, contrasting with a profit of $1.480 billion in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant shift in investment performance [1][2][20] Group 2 - Berkshire's cash and cash equivalents reached a record high of $347.7 billion by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a strong liquidity position [1][44] - The company did not engage in stock buybacks during Q1 2025, marking a halt to a six-year continuous buyback operation that ended in Q3 2024 [1][44] - The fair value of equity securities investments remained concentrated, with 69% of the total fair value held in five major companies, including American Express and Apple [1][9] Group 3 - The insurance segment's performance was adversely affected by significant catastrophe losses, particularly from the Southern California wildfires, which accounted for approximately $860 million in after-tax losses [16][22] - The BNSF Railway segment saw a 6.2% increase in after-tax earnings, driven by higher shipping volumes and improved operational efficiency despite adverse weather conditions [17][39] - Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) reported a 53% increase in after-tax earnings, reflecting growth in utility and energy operations [18][39] Group 4 - The manufacturing, service, and retail segments experienced a slight decline in after-tax earnings, with overall revenues and profits lower than the previous year [19] - Investment income from the insurance business showed a 30.5% increase in interest and other investment income, primarily due to higher interest from U.S. Treasury investments [35][36] - The company’s total liabilities stood at $125.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, with a significant portion attributed to its subsidiaries [45][46]

智通财经APP获悉，"投资界春晚"即将上演。巴菲特将在当地时间3日上午8点(北京时间晚上9点)举行一 年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)股东大会。许多人都将目光投向了这位"股神"对最近美国关税政 策的回应以及伯克希尔未来的投资策略。 但随着巴菲特即将退休，很大部分投资者也非常关注其接班人——格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)的过去以 及其之于伯克希尔未来的意义。 接班人确认 多年来，谁将接替巴菲特执掌伯克希尔，始终是投资界最引人入胜的悬念。在一年一度的股东大会上， 巴菲特与黄金搭档查理·芒格总是以标志性的幽默应对追问："董事会已选定接班人，但名字保密。" 转折点出现在2021年5月1日的线上股东大会。时年97岁的芒格在当时疫情特殊时期不经意透露："格雷 格会延续我们的文化。"这句看似随意的评价，瞬间解开了困扰华尔街数十年的接班谜题。投资者们立 即意识到，这位被寄予厚望的"格雷格"，正是执掌伯克希尔非保险业务帝国的格雷格·阿贝尔。 巴菲特随后在接受采访时确认，现年62岁的阿贝尔将成为伯克希尔下一任CEO。 格雷格・阿贝尔何许人也? 这位即将掌舵7000亿美元帝国的商业领袖，始终保持着低调本色。他很少 ...