Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - **Steel**: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - **Palm Oil**: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - **Live Pigs**: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - **Alumina**: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - **Aluminum**: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on precious metals and base metals futures, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel, and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions [1][2] Summary by Commodity Gold - **Trend**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different fluctuations, trading volume and positions have changed, ETF positions have decreased, inventory has decreased, and spreads have changed [5] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [5] Silver - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2][5] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, the price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread of silver futures and spot have changed [5] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [5] Copper - **Trend**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: The price of copper futures has changed, trading volume has increased, positions have changed, inventory has increased, and spreads have changed. There are also some macro and industrial news, such as the decline of copper production in Chile and the increase of investment in the US by copper product companies [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [11] Zinc - **Trend**: Range-bound [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: The price of zinc futures has increased, trading volume has increased, positions have decreased, inventory has decreased, and spreads have changed. There are news about G7's monitoring of the energy market and consideration of releasing oil reserves [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [13] Lead - **Trend**: The reduction of overseas inventory supports the price [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: The price of lead futures has slightly changed, trading volume has increased, positions have decreased, inventory has changed, and spreads have changed. There are some macro news [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Tin - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to the stabilization situation [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The price of tin futures has changed, trading volume has increased, positions have decreased, inventory has changed, and spreads have changed. There are some macro and industrial news [19][21] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Trend**: Aluminum oscillates and falls, alumina rises and then falls, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot have changed. There is news about the increase in alumina freight and the possible end of the war [22][23] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: -1; Aluminum Alloy: 0 [23] Platinum, Palladium - **Trend**: Platinum quickly recovers due to geopolitical reversal, and palladium rebounds upward with high elasticity [2][24][25] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of platinum and palladium futures and spot have changed. There are some macro and industry news [25][28] - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum: 1; Palladium: 1 [27] Nickel, Stainless Steel - **Trend**: The tightness of the nickel ore end supports the present situation, but the accumulation of smelting inventory limits the elasticity; the macro - risk preference disturbs stainless steel, and the real - cost center moves up [2][29] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, positions, and related industrial data of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed. There are many industry news, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia, the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala, and production accidents in Indonesia [29][35] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report reviews two rounds of A-share cyclical sector market trends since 2018, analyzes the changes in the holdings of cyclical theme funds, and conducts a detailed analysis of several cyclical fund managers [2]. - The cyclical sector has experienced two rounds of market trends since 2018. The first was from Q2 2020 to Q3 2021, driven by supply-demand mismatch after the global post-pandemic recovery. The second started in July 2025, driven by a weakening US dollar, global political and economic restructuring, and structural supply constraints in non-ferrous metals [2][5]. - The scale of cyclical theme funds has increased with several market trends, with significant overall fluctuations. Long - term cyclical theme actively managed funds can achieve relatively stable excess returns [2][20]. - The report analyzes the investment frameworks, performance contributions, industry allocations, stock - selection preferences, and trading capabilities of four cyclical fund managers: Han Chuang, Li Wenhai, Mu Yaqian, and Li You [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cycle Sector Market Review - **2020 Q2 - 2021 Q3**: The main driving factor was the supply - demand mismatch after the global post - pandemic recovery. The pandemic disrupted the global supply chain, and after the pandemic, large - scale fiscal stimulus overseas boosted commodity demand. The "dual - carbon" policy in China strengthened the supply - side contraction logic, leading to a sharp increase in commodity prices [2][7]. - **Since July 2025**: The main driving factors are a weakening US dollar, global political and economic restructuring, and structural supply constraints in non - ferrous metals. The "anti - involution" policy has accelerated the exit of backward production capacity. Non - ferrous metals led the market, and the market trend gradually spread from non - ferrous metals to sectors such as basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][11]. 3.2 Cycle Theme Fund Holdings Trends - **Scale and Performance**: The scale of cyclical theme funds has increased with market trends, with large fluctuations. Since Q3 2025, the scale has increased significantly. Actively managed cyclical theme funds can achieve relatively stable excess returns in the long run, as cyclical sectors have strong timing attributes [20]. - **Industry Allocation Characteristics**: Cyclical theme funds focus on non - ferrous metals, transportation, and basic chemicals. In 2025, the proportion of non - ferrous metals and basic chemicals increased, and they focus on sub - sectors such as industrial metals, precious metals, and aviation airports [21]. - **Funds with Growth Potential**: 40 cyclical theme growth - style funds were selected using the Morningstar style box to calculate growth scores [33]. 3.3 Cycle Theme Fund Manager Case Analysis 3.3.1 Han Chuang (Dacheng New - Edge Industry) - **Investment Framework**: Focuses on industry prosperity, company competitive advantages, and reasonable valuations, with a preference for resource products with obvious supply constraints [41]. - **Performance Attribution**: Both industry allocation and stock - selection and trading are important sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are industrial metals, precious metals, and automotive parts [54]. - **Industry Allocation**: In 2019, it was a full - market allocation. From 2020 - 2022, it increased positions in the cyclical sector, especially basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals. In 2023 - 2024, it increased positions in industrial metals. In 2025, it gradually took profits in industrial metals and increased positions in precious metals [56]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds stocks with small - market - cap characteristics, relatively low total market value, and relatively high profitability [68]. - **Trading Capabilities**: Low trading frequency, high stock - holding concentration, and 28 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [68]. 3.3.2 Li Wenhai (Rongtong Industry Trend Selection) - **Investment Framework**: Combines top - down and bottom - up approaches, with a focus on industry forward - looking layout and stock - selection based on profit realization or inflection points, emphasizing valuation cost - effectiveness [71]. - **Performance Attribution**: Stock - selection and trading are the main sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are communication equipment, electricity, and precious metals [83]. - **Industry Allocation**: Heavily invested in the public utilities sector, especially the electricity and gas sectors. In 2024, it switched to non - ferrous metals and other sectors. In 2025, it increased positions in industrial metals and diversified the sector allocation [85]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds stocks with low - valuation and high - growth characteristics, relatively high profit growth, and relatively low valuation [100]. - **Trading Capabilities**: High trading frequency, low stock - holding concentration, and 57 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [100]. 3.3.3 Mu Yaqian (ICBC Core Opportunity) - **Investment Framework**: Combines prosperity investment and quality investment, focuses on market expectations in the cyclical sector, and controls drawdowns. It also has a certain position in Hong Kong stocks to increase returns through AH premium [103]. - **Performance Attribution**: Stock - selection and trading are the main sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals [115]. - **Industry Allocation**: Initially built positions in the cyclical sector, focusing on industrial metals. Then it continuously increased positions in precious metals and industrial metals, and adjusted positions in other sectors [117]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds large - cap and low - valuation stocks, with relatively high market value and relatively low valuation [129]. - **Trading Capabilities**: High trading frequency, high stock - holding concentration, and 31 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [129]. 3.3.4 Li You (Chuangjin Hexin Resources Theme) - **Investment Framework**: Selects high - quality sectors from a top - down perspective based on industry trends and competitive landscapes, and selects growth - oriented leading stocks from a bottom - up perspective, emphasizing safety margins [132]. - **Performance Attribution**: Both industry allocation and stock - selection and trading are important sources of excess returns. The main return - contributing sectors are industrial metals, coal mining, photovoltaic equipment, and precious metals [142]. - **Industry Allocation**: From 2017 - 2019, it increased positions in industrial metals, energy metals, and refining and trading. From 2020 - 2022, it adjusted positions in different sectors. From 2023 - 2024, it continued to increase positions in industrial metals. In 2025, it concentrated on industrial metals and adjusted positions in precious metals [145]. - **Stock - Selection Preferences**: Holds large - cap and high - profit - quality stocks, with relatively high market value and profit quality [159]. - **Trading Capabilities**: Low trading frequency, moderate stock - holding concentration, and 40 effective stocks at the end of H1 2025 [159].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2026-03-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 特朗普表示：对伊行动或很快将结束 观点分享： 据新华社报道，当地时间 3 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国对伊朗的战事"很快" 会结束，但"不会"在本周结束。受此消息影响，WTI 原油主力 04 合约回调至 88 美元附近， 而不到一天之前最高曾摸到 119 美元以上。市场层面的风险溢价有所退潮。然而尽管特朗普 称"伊朗海军、空军、通讯、导弹和无人机工厂已被摧毁殆尽。"但伊朗远程导弹、地下核 设施、革命卫队地面力量仍在，伊朗仍可不对称反击，封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力未被根除。 该海峡事实封锁、通航极低的现状能否改变，值得观察。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★★★★ | 燃料油：强势上行，未来有一定概率逐步达到历史高位。在目前霍尔木兹海峡完全封锁、伊 朗与周边中东国家的炼厂也开始由于油田减产和产品无法出口开始降低负荷的背景下，燃料 油价格因此在近两周大幅上涨。与俄乌战争的物流改向不同，本次地缘冲 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: March 10, 2026 - Report Type: Morning Report on Shanghai Nickel & Stainless Steel - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Shanghai Nickel - The external market rebounded after a decline, with prices fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. Supply increased in March production scheduling, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. There was a strong bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market, and the RKAB policy change in Indonesia led to a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish domestic transactions due to cost inversion. Nickel - iron prices continued to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, but the decline was small compared to the previous increase, suggesting weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season. Overall, the outlook is bearish [2]. - The basis is 2380 (spot price 138,900), which is bullish [2]. - LME inventory is 287,418 (-132), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 53,897 (+329), which is bearish [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. - Conclusion: Shanghai Nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices rebounded, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, but demand was weak. The outlook is neutral [4]. - The basis is 1007.5 (average stainless steel price 15,112.5), which is bullish [4]. - The futures warehouse receipts are 51,893 (-60), which is neutral [4]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [4]. - Conclusion: Stainless Steel 2604 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview | Futures | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 136,520 | 137,140 | -620 | | LME Nickel | 17,430 | 17,450 | -20 | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 14,105 | 14,210 | -105 | | Spot | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel | 138,900 | 140,500 | -1,600 | | 1 Jinchuan Nickel | 142,550 | 143,950 | -1,400 | | 1 Imported Nickel | 135,250 | 137,000 | -1,750 | | Nickel Beans | 137,750 | 139,650 | -1,900 | | Cold Rolled Index | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nickel Index | 137,250 | 136,850 | 400 | | Cold Rolled Index | 13,750 | 13,801 | -51 | | Cold Rolled 304*2B | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Wuxi | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Foshan | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Hangzhou | 15,100 | 15,100 | 0 | | Shanghai | 15,150 | 15,150 | 0 | [9] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively [12]. | Futures Inventory | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Nickel | 287,418 | 287,550 | -132 | | Shanghai Nickel (Warehouse Receipts) | 53,897 | 53,568 | 329 | | Total Inventory | 341,315 | 341,118 | 197 | [13] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the Wuxi inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,300 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons [17]. | Futures Inventory | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts | 51,893 | 51,953 | -60 | [18] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices | Nickel Ore | Grade | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Laterite Nickel Ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 78 | 74 | 4 | USD/wet ton | | Laterite Nickel Ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 32 | 31 | 1 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 12.5 | 10.5 | 2 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 13.5 | 11.5 | 2 | USD/ton | | Variety | Grade | 3 - 9 | 3 - 6 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | High - Nickel (Wet Ton) | 8 - 12 | 1,088.71 | 1,086.93 | 1.79 | CNY/nickel point | | Low - Nickel (Wet Ton) | Below 2 | 3,750 | 3,750 | 0 | CNY/ton | [20] Stainless Steel Production Costs | Traditional Cost | Scrap Steel Production Cost | Low - Nickel + Pure Nickel Cost | | --- | --- | --- | | 14,103 | 14,083 | 17,996 | [22] Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 136,561 CNY/ton [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the impact of the US-Iran conflict on various financial and commodity markets. Trump's indication that the war against Iran will end soon has led to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. The conflict has also affected inflation, stock markets, and commodity prices, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response and trends. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump believes the war is almost over, and gold is in a volatile consolidation phase. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the pressure on precious metals from rising interest rates has weakened. [11] - Investment advice: Gold and silver are expected to move in a volatile manner. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that the war against Iran will end soon leads to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. [13] - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to decline. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US short - term inflation and wage expectations have decreased. Trump says the war is almost over, and the G7 has not announced an immediate release of oil reserves. [15][16] - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's inflation in February exceeded expectations. The A - share market shows resilience, but short - term risk aversion is recommended. [19] - Investment advice: The stock index arbitrage strategy is preferred, with a long IC and short IM combination. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - February inflation data exceeded expectations, and the central bank conducted a 48.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a quick end to the US - Iran conflict is decreasing, and the bond market may experience short - term fluctuations and potential long - term upward trends. [22][23] - Investment advice: Consider mid - line long positions in treasury bond futures when the price is low. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In February, excavator sales decreased year - on - year, and the passenger car market sales in January also declined. Steel prices have rebounded due to rising energy prices, but the fundamentals of the finished product end remain under pressure. [25][26] - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events. 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 9, the imported steam coal market was in a state of continuous game. Overseas coal prices have risen, while domestic coal prices are relatively stable. The duration of the Middle East conflict is the biggest uncertainty. [29] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the Middle East conflict. Coal prices are expected to be in a volatile market in the short term and have upward risks in the long term. 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company is re - evaluating an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile market, with potential upward cost pressure and uncertain demand. [31] - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating. The price increase is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [33] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment situation. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may resume the B50 biodiesel mixing plan. The price of edible oils has fluctuated greatly, mainly following the trend of crude oil. [35][36] - Investment advice: If international oil prices remain high, palm oil prices may rise, but beware of price drops due to geopolitical uncertainties. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn exports in February increased year - on - year. The supply of corn is gradually increasing, and the demand has support. [37][38] - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is in a multi - factor game. In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, but the increase is limited. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased, and the production of soybeans in Argentina is expected to be stable. The supply and demand of soybean meal are weak, but it may be strong in the short term. [40][42] - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the Middle East situation, crude oil, and CBOT soybean futures prices. Be cautious when chasing up. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's performance in 2025 was excellent. The supply of lithium carbonate has disturbances, and the demand has short - term support. [43][44] - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to be bullish. In the long term, there is support from the new energy narrative. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a large discount, and the domestic social inventory has increased. The lead price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. [45][46] - Investment advice: Look for mid - line callback buying opportunities on the long side. Wait and see for arbitrage. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the domestic inventory has increased. The zinc price may rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48][49] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Take profit on long positions at high prices. Consider mid - line positive arbitrage. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Citi is optimistic about Zijin Mining's production growth. The IEA suggests using aluminum to replace copper. The copper price may be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. [50][52] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Observe positive arbitrage opportunities. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Some companies are increasing platinum production. The global platinum market will be in short supply in 2026. The platinum price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. [53][54][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Consider mid - line reverse arbitrage for the month spread. Look for opportunities to go long platinum and short palladium. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply of tin may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [57][58] - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate with limited downward space. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump says the military action against Iran will end soon, and the oil price has fluctuated sharply. [59][60] - Investment advice: The risk premium will be reversed after the market sentiment reaches its peak. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG has fluctuated due to market panic and subsequent news. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. [62] - Investment advice: Wait and see and track the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt has decreased. The asphalt price may decline due to the fall in international oil prices. [63] - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of LLDPE has increased, and the price is expected to rise due to rising oil prices. [66] - Investment advice: Buy on dips and expand the 5 - 9 spread. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The price of urea in Shandong has increased. The Iran conflict has affected the overseas urea market, and the domestic market may see a pulse - type upward movement. [67][68] - Investment advice: Do not be overly aggressive in going long. Focus on potential reverse arbitrage opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased. The trading logic of styrene has evolved, and it is still recommended to be bullish. [70][71] - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China is firm. The soda ash price is supported by cost and supply disturbances. [73] - Investment advice: The soda ash price has short - term support. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Guangdong is stable. The glass price may be volatile due to the rise in oil prices. [74][75] - Investment advice: The glass price may be volatile in the short term. 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo Port's container throughput in February increased year - on - year. The shipping market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the price is in a high - level oscillation. [76][77] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opening of MSK W13 and the price adjustment of other shipping companies.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend in the order of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the start of subsequent sectors may be advanced. The current strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] - In 2026, the chemical sector is worth looking forward to. With the implementation of China's "anti - involution" policy, the exit of production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs, chemical products will see a market of cost transmission and supply optimization [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What is the commodity sector cycle rotation? - Due to the regular rotation of the economic cycle and the influence of the medium - term inventory cycle, bulk commodities experience a rotational upward trend from "precious metals - industrial metals - energy and chemicals - agricultural products" [4] 3.2 Which stage has the current sector rotation reached? - After the US - Israel raid on Iran on February 28, the crude oil system and shipping index hit the daily limit this week. The subsequent sector start may be advanced. Although emergencies may disrupt the rhythm and intensity of rotation, the underlying logic remains [5] - The strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is fully expected by the market, while oil prices and sectors related to China's domestic economic cycle still have room for rotation and upward expectations [5] 3.3 Which sectors should be focused on in the future? - Historically, precious metals often start first, followed by non - ferrous metals and energy - chemical sectors, and the agricultural product sector is usually lagging and appears in the second half of the cycle [6] - In 2026, the chemical sector is promising. With relevant policies and cost factors, chemical products will have a market of cost transmission and supply optimization, and varieties with less production capacity expansion and strong export expectations will perform better [6] 3.4 Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - There is an adjustment requirement in the morning, and the large - cycle will continue to fluctuate within a range. Tomorrow's early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [9] 3.4.2 Gold - The gold daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher and then fell back at the end of the session. It should be treated with a high - short strategy [14] 3.4.3 Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, with a long - term supply - loosening expectation. The demand side needs time for the terminal demand to start. Technically, with the recent high - spirited commodity sentiment and the disk rising for three consecutive days, a bullish view can be maintained [15][16] 3.4.4 Glass - The daily melting change is small, and the factory inventory accumulates during the seasonal off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. Technically, if it breaks through the previous high, the upward space can be further opened, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [18][19] 3.4.5 Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence of Iranian supplies on the disk pricing is about 50%. Any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [21] 3.4.6 Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, with individual equipment under maintenance. The domestic port inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support the pulp price [25]

Market Performance Overview - In the week from March 2 to March 6, 2026, oil prices surged while domestic equity market indices experienced a pullback [4] - The oil and petrochemical, coal, and public utilities sectors saw the highest gains, while media, non-ferrous metals, and computer sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 12 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 13.464 billion units [5] - The new funds included 3 bond funds, 6 equity funds, 2 mixed funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF) [5] - Overall, 45 new funds were issued across various types, including 19 equity funds, 9 FOFs, 8 bond funds, 8 mixed funds, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The net value of industry-themed funds declined across the board this week, with financial and real estate-themed funds performing relatively better [6] - As of March 6, 2026, the net value changes for various themed funds were as follows: financial and real estate -1.10%, cyclical -1.66%, industry rotation -2.30%, pharmaceuticals -2.43%, consumer -2.59%, balanced industry -2.62%, new energy -2.72%, national defense and military -3.54%, and TMT -4.53% [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, stock ETFs saw a net inflow of funds, with significant increases in cyclical theme ETFs, while mid-cap and large-cap broad-based ETFs experienced notable reductions [7] - The median return for stock ETFs was -2.37%, with a net inflow of 1.424 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -3.89% and a net inflow of 3.039 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.30% and a net inflow of 1.031 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs had a median return of -0.33% and a substantial net inflow of 13.181 billion yuan [7][8] - Broad-based ETFs maintained net inflows, while other categories experienced net outflows, particularly mid-cap theme ETFs, which saw a total outflow of 17.252 billion yuan [7] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 13 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.777 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.29 trillion yuan and a total of 4,569 bonds issued as of March 6, 2026 [9] - The domestic market currently has 210 ESG funds with a total scale of 154.846 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive equity index, and bond ESG funds were -2.46%, -0.69%, and +0.10%, respectively, with clean energy, low-carbon environmental protection, and green electricity-themed funds performing better [9]

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is 429,000 CNY/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.75, also down 1.6% week-on-week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt sulfate is 4.46, up 0.4% week-on-week [4] - Carbon fiber price remains at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -6.44 CNY/kg [4] - Rhenium price is 47,070 CNY/kg, up 1.7% week-on-week [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle New Materials - The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are 155,100 CNY/ton and 151,100 CNY/ton, down 9.8% and 7.0% week-on-week, respectively [5] - Cobalt sulfate price is 95,200 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [5] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 52,400 CNY/ton and 191,500 CNY/ton, with no change and a decrease of 1.2% week-on-week, respectively [5] - Neodymium praseodymium oxide price is 850.17 CNY/kg, down 4.5% week-on-week [5] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 5.77 USD/kg, down 6.3% week-on-week [6] - EVA price is 9,650 CNY/ton, unchanged and at a low level since 2013 [6] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, unchanged [6] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - Prices for zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand are 13,750 CNY/ton, 145 CNY/kg, 9,500 CNY/kg, 14,875 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton, respectively, with no change for most and a 5.6% increase for hafnium oxide [7] - Uranium price is projected to be 69.71 USD/pound in January 2026, up 9.8% [7] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt trioxide is 363,000 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. Lithium cobalt oxide price is 401.0 CNY/kg, down 0.2% [8] - Silicon carbide price is 5,800 CNY/ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [8] - The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,980.00 CNY/kg, 4,850.00 CNY/kg, and 4,950.00 CNY/kg, respectively, with increases of 1.5%, 4.3%, and 4.2% week-on-week [9] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 547.50 CNY/g, 2,970.00 CNY/g, and 1,910.00 CNY/g, respectively, with platinum down 10.1% and rhodium and iridium up 2.4% and 3.0% [10]

Group 1: Transportation and Energy Development - The Minister of Transport, Liu Wei, announced that the coverage rate of charging facilities in highway service areas has reached 98.8%, with a focus on enhancing high-power charging capabilities to alleviate issues of finding charging stations and long queues [2] - National People's Congress representative Liu Jiang highlighted that the CR450 high-speed train, which is currently undergoing trial operations, utilizes a lithium-ion battery system developed by Changhong, reducing the battery weight from approximately 2,000 kg to 920 kg, thus supporting the train's performance [2] - The China National Nuclear Corporation's chief scientist, Duan Xu, revealed that the "China Circulation No. 3" project is expected to conduct plasma burning experiments by 2027, advancing China's fusion engineering experimental reactor construction [2] Group 2: Oil and Gas Market Updates - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per ton, respectively, due to rising international oil prices, effective from March 9 [3] - Iraq's crude oil production has dropped by nearly 70% due to regional conflicts, with exports averaging around 800,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than the previous month's 1,334,000 barrels per day [5] - The Bahrain Petroleum Company announced it is facing "force majeure" due to escalating regional conflicts affecting its operations, but domestic market demand will be ensured through emergency plans [5] Group 3: Renewable Energy Initiatives - The establishment of the Hydrogen Energy Standardization Technical Committee aims to enhance industry standards and promote technological innovation in China's hydrogen energy sector, marking a significant milestone for high-quality development [3] - The Jilin Province Energy Bureau and Development and Reform Commission issued a plan for the development of green electricity direct connection projects, categorizing them into three types based on load, power source, and source-load matching [4] - China General Nuclear Power Group reported that its cumulative clean energy generation has surpassed 3.65 trillion kWh, equivalent to a reduction of over 11.1 billion tons of standard coal consumption and a decrease of 339 million tons of CO2 emissions [4] Group 4: International Energy Supply Issues - Peru's capital and surrounding areas will implement emergency energy regulation measures for one week due to a natural gas supply crisis caused by a pipeline rupture [6] - The establishment of the first solar power station in Tanzania, constructed by a Chinese enterprise, has achieved full capacity grid connection, marking a significant step towards diversifying the country's energy structure and promoting clean energy development [7]