文字早评 2025/12/12 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；推动投资止跌回稳， 适当增加中央预算内投资规模；深入整治"内卷式"竞争，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革； 2、有市场消息称量化交易在交易所的设备将被清退，多家券商相关负责人回应：目前尚未接到具体通 知； 3、商务部：推动安世荷兰尽快派员来华； 4、LME 铜价创下纪录新高 突破每吨 11790 美元。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.65%/-1.22%/-2.16%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.12%/-0.95%/-2.67%/-5.53%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.10%/-1.22%/-3.41%/-6.72%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-0.48%/-0.51%/-0.98%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中 长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 113.190 ...

恐慌情绪蔓延！上周五美股大跌；今日将公布社零等重磅经济数据。港股三大指数大幅低开，恒指跌 1%，国指跌1.09%，恒生科技指数跌1.34%。权重科技股集体下跌，其中百度跌超3%，阿里巴巴、腾 讯、小米均有跌幅；内房股、生物医药股、有色金属股齐跌。另外，三胎概念股、光伏股多数上涨，明 星股锦欣生殖涨约3%。(格隆汇) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on their returns, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - term, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the end - of - year bond market is expected to fluctuate under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship and the rebound after over - decline [5][7]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude for silver [8][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, although the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small; aluminum prices have strong support and may rise further after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range; nickel may turn to a volatile trend; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be adjusted in a range; alumina prices are recommended to be observed; stainless steel is in a tight - balance pattern and lacks a clear direction; casting aluminum alloy prices may maintain range fluctuations [12][13][14][15]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are estimated to oscillate weakly; glass and soda ash are expected to show different trends of narrow - range oscillation and downward pressure respectively; manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by the black sector and cost factors; industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak [33][34][35][36][38][39][40][43][44][45][48]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term operation; oil prices are recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and short - term wait - and - see; methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level; urea is expected to build a bottom through oscillation; for pure benzene and styrene, one can go long on non - integrated profits when the inventory inflection point appears; PVC is recommended for short - selling on rallies; ethylene glycol and PTA need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and valuation; PX is recommended for long - buying on dips; polyethylene and polypropylene have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [51][52][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][79]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, one can short - sell after the consumption rebound; for eggs, one can short - sell on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the long - term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to run in an oscillating manner; for oils and fats, one can observe high - frequency data for short - term operations; for sugar, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term; for cotton, it is difficult to have a unilateral trend [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][90][91][92]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: There are positive policy signals such as the central bank emphasizing domestic demand and the promotion of personal consumption loans. SpaceX plans an IPO in 2026 with a valuation of about $800 billion [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: Although there is short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Friday. In November 2025, the social financing scale and the balance of broad - money increased year - on - year. On December 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a reverse repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds on Friday [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.84%, and Shanghai Silver fell 2.28%. The Fed's dovish statement has both positive and negative impacts on silver prices. The overseas spot tightness logic of silver has weakened [8][9]. - **Strategy View**: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude for silver [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price declined after rising, LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot market had different performance in different regions [12]. - **Strategy View**: The risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn to an oscillating trend [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price declined, the inventory decreased in some areas, and the LME inventory increased [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices have strong support and may rise further after adjustment [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME inventory slowly increased [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc may give back some gains [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price declined, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price was weak, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rebounded [20]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price declined, the production and demand of tin were in different situations, and the inventory increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate also increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to be adjusted in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, the spot price in Shandong decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [26][27]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price rose slightly, the raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern and lacks a clear direction, and it is recommended to wait and see [29]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the market atmosphere was general [30]. - **Strategy View**: The casting aluminum alloy price may maintain range fluctuations [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory had difficulty in de - stocking [33]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to winter storage policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose slightly, the overseas shipment volume changed, and the port inventory increased [35][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices are estimated to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price declined, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand were in a weak - balance state; the soda - ash price declined, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure increased [38][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to show narrow - range oscillation, and soda ash is expected to be under downward pressure [38][39]. Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose slightly, and the prices showed different trends [40][41][42]. - **Strategy View**: They are affected by the black sector and cost factors, and attention should be paid to manganese ore and electricity prices [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rose, the production and demand decreased; the polysilicon price rose, the production was expected to decline, and the demand was weak [45][46][48][49]. - **Strategy View**: Both are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to relevant factors [46][47][49]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. The low inventory and winter - storage demand were positive factors, and there were differences between bulls and bears [51][52]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy and conduct short - term operations [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price declined, and the inventory of refined oil products changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait and see in the short - term [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price declined, the regional spot prices changed, and the port inventory decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price declined, the regional spot prices changed, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long on dips [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, the inventory and production changed [63]. - **Strategy View**: Go long on non - integrated profits when the inventory inflection point appears [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price declined, the cost was stable, the production decreased, and the demand was weak [65]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rallies [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price rose, the production decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and the risk of inventory reversal [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price declined, the production was stable, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and valuation, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [71][72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX price declined, the production changed, and the inventory increased [73]. - **Strategy View**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price declined, the production decreased, the inventory decreased, and the demand was in a seasonal off - season [75]. - **Strategy View**: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price declined, the production increased, the inventory decreased, and the demand was seasonally oscillating [77][78]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for the change in the cost - side supply - demand pattern in the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price rose over the weekend, the consumption increased, and the supply was high [81]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell after the consumption rebound and look for long - buying opportunities in the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial weakness, the supply was under general pressure, and the demand was difficult to increase [82]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the long - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price declined, the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, the production and demand were in a certain state, and the global soybean supply was expected to change [84]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to run in an oscillating manner [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data changed, the domestic oil price declined at night, and there was a de - stocking expectation in the Southeast Asian origin [86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price declined, the production of major sugar - producing countries was expected to change, and the global supply - demand relationship was expected to shift [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: Wait and see in the short - term [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated, the spot price rose, the downstream opening rate was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [91]. - **Strategy View**: It is difficult to have a unilateral trend [92].

短期镍价弱势运行 镍周报 2025/12/13 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格整体持稳运行。火法矿方面，尽管冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，但矿商议价能力较强，印尼与菲律宾火法 矿价格均未出现明显下跌，后市或能继续维持坚挺。湿法矿方面，市场仍相对平淡，价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周随着印尼铁厂利润触及低位，市场部分采买需求释放，镍铁价格企稳反弹。但从需求来看，目前下游钢厂整体采购意愿依旧低迷， 预计镍铁价格上行空间有限，后市或持稳运行为主。 ◆ 中间品：本周中间品成交整体一般，但在成本支撑下系数价格维持高位。供给方面，海外硫磺价格维持强势，卖方挺价意愿偏强。但当前外采 MHP经济性较低，且镍盐厂多已完成采购，整体需求转弱，多持观望态度。 ◆ 精 ...

Group 1 - A new company, Jiangxi Shengguan Supply Chain Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 2 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xiao Qihong [1] - The business scope includes supply chain management services, coal-based activated carbon and other coal processing, sales of non-metallic minerals and products, mineral selection, sales of non-ferrous metal alloys, common non-ferrous metal smelting, steel and iron smelting, sales of metal ores, sales of metal materials, sales of new metal functional materials, metal structure sales, and ferroalloy smelting [1]

格隆汇12月12日丨豫光金铅(600531.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司属有色金属冶炼行业，外购原材 料的采购价格是按照产成品市场价格扣减加工费的方法确定，产品盈利水平会随金属市场价格波动及加 工费调整而相应变化。白银价格上涨对公司经营利润构成正面影响。 ...

11月12日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锌期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 23680.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.96%。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块 也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。 宏观方面，据铜冠金源期货介绍，美国上周初请失业金人数增加4.4万人至23.6万人，预估为22.0万人， 创2020年全球疫情爆发以来最大增幅，美元回落。国内中央经济工作会议保持积极，助力经济修复。 供应方面，创元期货指出，国内矿供应受北方冬季减产和进口利润影响持续紧张，表观呈现TC持续下 行和矿库存减少，冶炼利润因TC影响受损严重，呈逼近去年利润低点趋势。 展望后市，国泰君安期货表示，明年锌元素依然存在过剩预期，但国内现实端过剩年内已经兑现，弱预 期应有所修正，短期来看利空因素较为受阻。叠加TC Benchmark博弈阶段供应端扰动增强，价格存在 一定向上弹性，关注阶段性交易机会。 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on December 12, 2025, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for multiple futures varieties across different sectors. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on December 11, 2025, was - 48.4 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend compared to previous days. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodity Basis**: For fuel oil and INE crude oil, the basis on December 11, 2025, was - 1.64 yuan/ton and - 2.37 yuan/ton respectively. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1485 [7]. - **Chemical Commodity Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, methanol was 51 yuan/ton, PTA was - 14 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 466 yuan/ton, V was 84 yuan/ton, and PP was 148 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, methanol was 57 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, methanol was 54 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 5 inter - period, rubber was 20 yuan/ton, methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, LLDPE - PVC was 2267 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 377 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Black Metal Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rebar was 181.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was 33.0 yuan/ton, coke was 113.5 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 135.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Black Metal Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rebar was - 10.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 20.0 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 1 inter - period, rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 43.5 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 5 inter - period, rebar was 32.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 23.5 yuan/ton, etc. [19]. - **Black Metal Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.05, the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.0289, etc. [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the domestic basis of copper was 170 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, zinc was 125 yuan/ton, lead was 5 yuan/ton, nickel was 3350 yuan/ton, and tin was - 600 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market Data**: On December 11, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 24.76, aluminum was (26.68), etc.; the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.93, aluminum was 7.65, etc.; the CIF price of copper was 94072.03, aluminum was 23768.13, etc.; the domestic spot price of copper was 92950.00, aluminum was 21910.00, etc.; the import profit/loss of copper was (1122.03), aluminum was (1858.13), etc. [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Product Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 153 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was - 60.11 yuan/ton, soybean meal was 310 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 534 yuan/ton, and corn was 37 yuan/ton [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - period was 11 yuan/ton, 9 - 1 was 14 yuan/ton, 9 - 5 was 38 yuan/ton; for other products, similar data are provided [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.86, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, etc. [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.58, SSE 50 was 7.23, CSI 500 was 8.49, and CSI 1000 was 7.40 [53]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: For the CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month was - 16.0, the next - quarter minus current - quarter was - 43.6; for other indices, similar data are provided [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].