Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's focus on inflation risks may limit interest - rate cuts, affecting the price trends of gold, the US dollar, and US stock indexes. - The stock market is expected to be strong, while the bond market may be weak due to recent policy - related meetings. - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, are affected by factors such as production, imports, and policies, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. Market risk aversion increased due to Trump's call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook. The Fed's limited room for interest - rate cuts this year and Powell's likely cautious stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggest that gold will continue to trade within a range in the short term. [13] - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and investors should be aware of the risk of price corrections. [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show that most members are more concerned about inflation than employment risks. Trump's actions regarding Fed Governor Cook and tariff policies have increased internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a more likely rate cut in September. [16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's internal differences have increased, and concerns about inflation are rising. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have reversed, causing the US stock market to correct. However, the decline has narrowed. [20] - Investment advice: Wait cautiously for Powell's speech on Friday as the market's risk appetite has declined. [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR remained stable in August. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations have maintained market liquidity, but the bond market is affected by the stock market. With recent policy - related meetings, the stock market is expected to be strong, and the bond market may be weak. [22][24] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term bearish approach and be cautious when betting on price rebounds. [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In July, China imported a large amount of soybeans from Brazil. The Pro Farmer field survey shows good prospects for US soybean yields, which limits the increase in CBOT soybean prices. Domestic demand for soybean meal is better than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has decreased year - on - year. [26][28] - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to be moderately strong in a volatile market if China stops purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the results of the US field survey this week. [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Imported coal prices are firm, and Indonesian low - calorie coal has a price advantage over domestic coal. However, due to the decline in daily consumption and supply constraints caused by weather, coal prices are expected to fluctuate around 700 yuan in the short term and may decline seasonally in September. [29][30] - Investment advice: Coal prices may be range - bound in the short term due to supply constraints, but the seasonal decline is inevitable. [30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A large - scale iron project in Western Australia has been approved. With the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north in late August, iron ore prices may be under short - term pressure but are expected to remain range - bound overall. [31] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with limited impact on the balance sheet from short - term environmental protection measures. [32] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs. Domestic steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as inventory accumulation and environmental protection restrictions. [33][35] - Investment advice: Wait for further price corrections before considering investment. [35] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The slaughter capacity utilization rate of Huatong Co., Ltd. is around 30% - 40%. The pig market is affected by policies, and there is a game between weak current conditions and strong expectations. The de - stocking process is ongoing, but there are uncertainties in the rhythm. [36][37] - Investment advice: Consider establishing long positions in the LH2601 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,150 yuan/ton. [38] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Jujube prices in the Hebei market are stable. New - season jujube growth is normal, but the physical inventory is high. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price trend is uncertain. [39][40] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the weather conditions in the production areas. [40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of August and its sugarcane yield in July have shown certain changes. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in July have increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Brazilian sugar production may face uncertainties, which may affect the global sugar supply. [41][42][43] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider buying on dips in the January contract. [45] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina in East Australia has been completed. The market sentiment is cooling, and the supply and demand are loose, leading to a weakening of the price trend. [46] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [47] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is discussing anti - involution measures for the photovoltaic industry. The price of polysilicon may be affected by policies and market supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to trade between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach on price corrections. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In July, China's exports of industrial silicon increased. The supply may increase marginally in August, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, the market may still experience de - stocking in August and enter a stocking phase in September. [52] - Investment advice: Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range. [52] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a contango, and the inventory is at a high level. The domestic lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is high. The price may be under pressure, but the support from the recycling cost needs to be observed. [53][54] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term for both single - side trading and arbitrage. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - China's exports of galvanized sheets and Peru's zinc concentrate production have increased. In July, China's imports of zinc concentrate reached a record high. The LME zinc market has a high structural risk, and the domestic zinc market is affected by imports and inventory. [56][57][58] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading in the short term. Consider long - term positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [59] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In July, China's imports of non - alloy nickel increased significantly. The LME and SHFE nickel markets show different inventory trends. The nickel market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment. [60][61] - Investment advice: Nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. Consider short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on price increases. [62] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In July, China's imports of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices was due to panic selling by some long - position holders. Fundamentally, there is no significant negative news, and the market may experience de - stocking in the third quarter. [63][64] - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips and positive arbitrage opportunities. [64] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The development of a copper mine project in Arizona is facing uncertainties due to a court ruling. A copper mine expansion project in Zambia has been launched. The copper market is affected by factors such as the US economic situation, policy expectations, and inventory levels. [65][66][67] - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to be widely volatile in the short term. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets. [68] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - South Korea plans to restructure its naphtha cracking capacity. The increase in the PG contract price on Wednesday was mainly due to sentiment rather than fundamental support. [69][70] - Investment advice: Do not short - sell for now. Consider positive arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts for the 2510 contract. [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA data shows a significant decline in commercial crude oil inventories. The oil price is expected to continue to trade within a narrow range, waiting for a directional driver. [71][72][73] - Investment advice: Wait for a directional driver in a volatile market. [73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively stable, and the price mainly follows the trend of crude oil. [74] - Investment advice: Adjust positions according to the cost of crude oil. Consider buying on price dips with a light position. [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation is fair. The demand from the weaving and polyester sectors is improving marginally. The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. [76][77] - Investment advice: The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. Consider buying on price dips with a light position and rolling the position. [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the market is weak, and the supply and demand are in a general situation. The price is expected to continue to be short - sold on price increases. [79] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on price increases and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [79] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the market has declined. The supply - side hype has subsided, and the market is weak. [80] - Investment advice: Be cautious in single - side trading. Consider arbitrage strategies, such as buying glass and short - selling soda ash when the spread widens. [81] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [82][83][84] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market has bottomed out, but the price increase may be limited. The price is expected to be range - bound. [84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable, with some varieties showing a downward trend. The market is lackluster, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [85] - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to weak fundamentals. [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is weak, and the downstream demand is general. The anti - dumping ruling in India may further weaken the market. [86][87] - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term. [87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of styrene rebounded due to news of naphtha cracking capacity reduction in South Korea. The market may focus on future supply situations, and the price may be affected by cost and sentiment. [88][89] - Investment advice: Be aware of the impact of policies on the supply and cost of styrene and the spread of market sentiment. [89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have been partially increased. The production capacity of major bottle chip factories will continue to be reduced in August, and attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new production capacity in late August to September. [90][91] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips mainly follows the trend of polyester raw materials. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity changes in late August to September. [91] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The container throughput of Hamburg Port to the US has decreased significantly. The EU's trade situation has deteriorated due to US tariff increases. The supply of shipping capacity is still relatively high, and the demand is weak, so freight rates are expected to continue to decline. [92][93][94] - Investment advice: The freight rate is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider short - selling opportunities on price increases. [94]

Core Viewpoint - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) anticipates a revenue of approximately RMB 29.306 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 10.72% [1] - The company expects a gross profit of approximately RMB 514 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 37.47% [1] - A net loss of approximately RMB 6 million is projected for the period, contrasting with a profit of approximately RMB 148 million in 2024 [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The expected revenue decline is attributed to a combination of accelerated release of domestic and international smelting capacity and tight supply of copper concentrate [1] - The sustained low level of smelting processing fees and reduced product output have contributed to the decrease in revenue and narrowed profit margins [1] Financial Performance Outlook - The board of directors indicates that the anticipated net loss for the first half of 2025 is primarily due to the reduction in gross profit [1] - The significant drop in gross profit reflects the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) anticipates a revenue decline of approximately 10.72% year-on-year for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with expected revenue around RMB 29.306 billion [1] Financial Performance - Expected gross profit for the period is approximately RMB 514 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 37.47% [1] - The company projects a net loss of approximately RMB 6 million for the period, contrasting with a profit of about RMB 148 million in 2024 [1] Reasons for Performance - The board attributes the anticipated net loss primarily to the reduction in gross profit, which is driven by a combination of accelerated release of domestic and international smelting capacity and tight supply of copper concentrate [1] - Continuous low smelting processing fees and reduced product output have contributed to the decline in revenue and narrowed profit margins [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in high - level oscillation with sector rotation. Futures of various commodities show different trends based on their respective fundamentals, including supply, demand, and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as reverse repurchase operations and stock market trends. It is expected to have limited adjustment and requires certain factors to stabilize [6]. - Precious metals are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar and are waiting for the Fed Chairman's statement at the central bank meeting [7]. - The shipping index shows different trends in different routes, and the container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as macro - economic environment, supply - demand relationship, and inventory. Most of them are expected to be in a range - bound state [13]. - The prices of black metals are influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory. Short - term trends vary, and some suggest short - term short - selling operations [41]. - Agricultural products have different outlooks. Meal products have long - term bullish expectations, while the trends of pigs, corn, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and seasonal factors [56]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The main stock indexes rose in the morning and fell back in the late trading. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is expected to enter a high - level oscillation and wait for the decision of the policy direction. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yields of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. The market is affected by reverse repurchase operations and stock market trends. It is expected to be limited in adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices declined due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The market is waiting for the Fed Chairman's statement at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Gold is recommended to build a bull spread strategy through call options at low prices after the price correction, and silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying idea [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures on European Routes - The spot prices of container shipping are in a downward phase, and the futures are expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has weak driving forces and shows narrow - range oscillation. The price is affected by the "stagflation - like" environment and inflation expectations. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is under pressure due to the continuous increase of warehouse receipts. The supply is expected to increase in the medium term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in the off - season, and the terminal consumption recovery is weak. The main contract refers to 20000 - 21000 [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be range - bound, and the aluminum alloy - aluminum price difference is expected to converge. It is recommended to refer to the 19600 - 20400 range and consider arbitrage operations [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is oscillating weakly. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [24][27]. - **Tin**: The tin price is oscillating with limited short - term driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see, and the follow - up depends on the recovery of tin mines in Myanmar [28][30]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals change little. It is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 126000 [30][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is oscillating weakly. The cost provides support, but the demand is still a drag. It is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract referring to 12800 - 13500 [33][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to be in a strong - range wide - amplitude oscillation. The fundamentals are marginally improved, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [37][40]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to try short - selling in the 3380 - 3400 range of the October contract [41][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price follows the steel price. It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [45][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal futures have peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 9 - 1 spread [49][52]. - **Coke**: The coke futures are oscillating downwards. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct positive arbitrage for the 9 - 1 spread [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The meal products have strong cost support, and the long - term bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long at low prices [56][58]. - **Pigs**: The pig spot price is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see due to factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price is oscillating weakly due to supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the growth of new - season corn [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a decline, with tin futures showing a slight upward trend, indicating mixed signals in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply Side - The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly decreased by 0.41% to 59.23%, although it has significantly rebounded from previous lows [1] - The mining sector remains tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected, and the issuance of mining licenses is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply situation in the future [1] Consumption Side - The photovoltaic industry is facing internal competition policies, leading to a lack of trading activity, while traditional consumption sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, making the overall outlook pessimistic [1] Inventory - Social inventory of tin ingots has slightly decreased, with a total of 10,392 tons reported as of August 15, 2025, an increase of 114 tons from the previous week [1] Market Outlook - The fundamental contradictions remain due to the slow recovery of raw material tin mines and recurring concerns over overseas liquidity [1] - The LME's low inventory reduction trend has not changed, and the recent strengthening of the LME's monthly structure indicates high concentration of warehouse receipts, supporting a slight upward shift in domestic and foreign tin prices [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that Shanghai tin will follow LME trends with a strong oscillation, with continued attention on the structure of LME tin and the concentration of warehouse receipts [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the ChiNext index leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.71% [1] - A total of over 3,400 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based sell-off [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, saw a rebound, with Jiugui Liquor achieving two consecutive trading limits [2] - Non-ferrous metal stocks showed strength, with Luoping Zinc & Electricity hitting the daily limit [2] - AI glasses concept stocks were active, with Kosen Technology achieving four consecutive trading limits [2] Declining Stocks - High-priced stocks collectively experienced significant declines, with companies like Huasheng Tiancheng hitting the daily limit down [3] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 135 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Individual Stock Highlights - Northern Rare Earth had a trading volume exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, leading the market [5] - Other notable stocks by trading volume included Dongfang Caifu, Sichuan Changhong, and Lio Co., Ltd. [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in July 2025 reached 1.27 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% [1] - Newly commissioned smelters are rapidly increasing their capacity utilization, while previously underperforming smelters are resuming production; however, some smelters are experiencing slight reductions in output due to tightening supply of raw materials [1] - In August, only one smelter had maintenance plans, and the reduction in output due to maintenance was minimal; however, the number of smelters reducing production due to tight supply of copper concentrate and raw materials increased compared to July [1] Group 2 - The end of maintenance and the ongoing ramp-up of newly commissioned smelters in East China are expected to stimulate production [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production is projected to reach 1.27 million tons in July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% [1] - Cumulative production from January to July 2025 is reported at 8.623 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [1] Group 2 - The data on metal production is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is gradually turning rational, and the disk trends are starting to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, commodity prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the disk prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [25]. - Policy - related emotional disturbances will continue to interfere with the disk, but ultimately, prices will move closer to the fundamentals after the emotions fade, which will take some time [31]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - The central bank will focus on the supply - side in its financial policies, aiming to create effective demand with high - quality supply and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. Southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$358.76 billion [2]. - The current policy is favorable to the capital market. After recent continuous increases, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the general strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - In July, industrial added - value and social consumption showed growth, while real estate investment and new housing sales declined. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, and the central bank is maintaining a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [6]. Precious Metals - US inflation data rebounded, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding inflation. The market is highly expecting a Fed rate cut. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will significantly affect precious metal prices [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Although US inflation data rebounded, the market has strong rate - cut expectations. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the overall copper price may consolidate and wait for further macro - level drivers [10]. Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and the export data is strong, which supports the aluminum price. However, weak downstream consumption and fluctuating trade situations may cause the aluminum price to fluctuate and decline in the short - term [11]. Zinc - The zinc market is in an oversupply situation, with domestic social inventories increasing rapidly and overseas registered warehouse receipts at a low level. Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [13]. Lead - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory accumulation. Lead prices are expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, driving nickel prices to rebound slightly, but weak downstream demand may cause prices to correct [15]. Tin - The supply of tin is currently tight, and demand is weak during the off - season. As Myanmar's production resumes, tin prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic carbonate lithium in the second half of the year, but the actual reduction in supply depends on the mining end. The current price increase may attract more supply, and investors are advised to be cautious [18]. Alumina - There are continuous disturbances in the supply of domestic and foreign ores, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state of weak demand and may continue to consolidate in the short - term [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The downstream of casting aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides some support, the upward resistance of prices is increasing [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - The steel market has weak demand and insufficient demand support. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [25]. Iron Ore - Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant, but the profitability of steel mills is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. Iron ore prices may adjust slightly in the short - term [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass production is increasing, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak. In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, they will follow macro - level emotions. Soda ash production is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising, but the price center may gradually rise in the long - term [28][29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may weaken in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The over - capacity and high - inventory problems of industrial silicon remain unresolved. Although demand provides some support in August, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The short - term increase in rubber prices is large, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally and consider band - trading strategies [38][41]. Crude Oil - Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and there is an opportunity for left - hand side layout [42]. Methanol - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - The supply of urea is relatively loose, and demand is average. The price is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities at low prices [44]. Styrene - The BZN spread of styrene is expected to repair, and port inventories are decreasing. Styrene prices may rise with the cost side [45]. PVC - The PVC market has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory is increasing. The fundamentals are weakening, and the short - term valuation may decline [49]. PTA - The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and demand needs improvement. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities with PX at low prices during the peak season [50]. p - Xylene - The load of PX is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support but limited upward space [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The supply and demand of PP are weak, and the cost side may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase in the third quarter. The market may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term, pay attention to upper - level pressure in the medium - term, and use reverse - spread strategies for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but it is currently the peak season, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly after stabilizing. In the medium - term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The USDA has reduced the soybean planting area, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans in the short - term. The import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal [58][59]. Edible Oils - The fundamentals of edible oils are supported, but the upward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly [62]. Sugar - The international sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic import supply is increasing. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - The cotton price is affected by positive news but has weak downstream consumption. In the short - term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [65].