Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. For precious metals, they are expected to maintain high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties. For copper, the price is under pressure due to supply - related factors. Alumina's supply - demand pattern is evolving from tight balance to structural surplus. For electrolytic aluminum, the price is short - term under pressure, and the consumption off - season may not be overly pessimistic. The casting aluminum alloy price is mainly influenced by cost and aluminum price. Zinc price may be pressured by fundamentals. Lead price has potential to rise due to supply - demand changes. Nickel price is weak but with cost support. Stainless steel price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance. Industrial silicon price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon price is also expected to be strong. Lithium carbonate price will be in high - level oscillations in the short - term and may decline in the fourth quarter [2][4][10][13][18][25][29][33][37][40][43][47][54]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.68% to $3345.985/oz, London silver rose 0.49% to $37.87/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 98.39, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4488%, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.177 [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump's rumor of firing Powell caused market turmoil, and US June PPI data was lower than expected. The Fed's economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the probability of interest rate changes is given [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: PPI data eased CPI concerns, but inflation and Fed's rate - cut timing uncertainties remain. Precious metals are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions on dips near the 5 - day moving average; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.01% to 77950 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $9637/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. - **Important Information**: Rumors about Powell's dismissal affected the market. In May 2025, there was a global refined copper supply surplus. A copper transport route in Peru was unblocked, and a Chilean company's copper production increased [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is relatively sufficient, price is pressured, and market procurement is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3086 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [12]. - **Important Information**: Related meetings emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, and inventory and production data showed changes [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand pattern is changing from tight balance to surplus, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate under pressure in the short - term, high - sell and low - buy in the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [14]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 15 yuan to 20445 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [16]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventories decreased, and there were rumors about Powell's dismissal. Housing completion data was provided [18]. - **Trading Logic**: Macro events may affect overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the consumption off - season may not be too bad [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Aluminum price is under short - term pressure, beware of price fluctuations caused by Powell's situation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19845 yuan/ton, and spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - **Important Information**: Production, inventory, and cost data of casting aluminum alloy were provided [23][24]. - **Trading Logic**: Supply has issues with actual sales, and demand is weak. The price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Be under pressure at high levels; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, or when the spot - futures price difference is over 400 yuan; Options: Wait and see [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.07% to $2699.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.25% to 22055 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders [29]. - **Important Information**: A company's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be pressured [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price may fluctuate due to macro factors. Partially close profitable short positions and re - enter short at high prices; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 1.15% to $1978/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.06% to 16885 yuan/ton. Spot trading was poor [32][33]. - **Important Information**: There was an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese lead - acid batteries in the Middle East [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions lightly due to cost support and consumption peak expectations; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $14990/ton, Shanghai nickel fell to 119640 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [36]. - **Important Information**: In May 2025, there was a global nickel supply surplus. There were concerns about US tariffs, and Philippine nickel exports to Indonesia were expected to increase [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff concerns, and the price is weak with cost support [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given context. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel fell to 12680 yuan/ton, and spot prices were provided [38]. - **Important Information**: Stainless steel inventory decreased in Foshan, and Indian stainless steel consumption data was provided [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to price pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract fell 0.91% to 8685 yuan/ton, and some spot prices rose [43]. - **Important Information**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [43]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply in July may decrease, and the market may reach a balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be bullish in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: None [44][45]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures contract rose 1.50% to 42945 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [47]. - **Important Information**: There was a photovoltaic project component procurement bid [47]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Market rumors focus on "anti - involution" and cost - based sales. The price increase can be passed on to downstream, and the price is expected to be strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be strong in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: Wait and see [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose to 66420 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Important Information**: The Asian lithium market faces downward pressure, and there were news about lithium mine projects [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances prevent deep price drops in the short - term, and the price may decline in the fourth quarter [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate at high levels in the short - term, beware of policy risks; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to lower-than-usual southwest开工 and fewer furnace startups by large northwest manufacturers, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. However, after the futures price rebounded, traders faced difficulties in selling, and spot liquidity decreased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - sellers should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is suitable to buy on dips. In the long - term, considering the expected policy introduction, polysilicon is suitable for long - term long - position layout [2][6][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped slightly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8740 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 379,848 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,215 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The downstream's acceptance of the price decreased, and the market's inquiry and trading volume declined. The organic silicon DMC price remained stable, some enterprises' prices rose slightly, pre - sales were good, inventory pressure decreased, and market trading was active [1] Polysilicon - On July 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 42,360 yuan/ton and closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, a 1.50% increase from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 71,783 lots (69,821 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 449,860 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50 GW, a 3.37% decrease [3] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R was 1.15 yuan/piece. Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W. Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Buy on dips [7] Others - No strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4][7] Factors to Monitor - Northwest and southwest resumption of production and new capacity commissioning; polysilicon enterprise operation changes; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; organic silicon enterprise operation conditions; industry self - regulation's impact on upstream and downstream operation; futures listing's impact on the spot market; capital sentiment; policy disturbances [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3.4 Market News - On July 17, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,215 lots, with a net decrease of 43 lots compared to the previous trading day. In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N - type dense material was 44,000 yuan. In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of silicon reported by the Silicon Industry Branch was 8,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553 grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441 grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421 grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton. The FOB price remained stable overall [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot price has shown an upward trend due to rising polysilicon prices, continued production cuts by major manufacturers, and increased downstream demand [1][2]. Price Movement - The main contract closing price fluctuated from 8470 CNY/ton to 8685 CNY/ton, with an increase of 2.54% during the week of July 10-16, 2025 [1]. - The national average price rose by 108 CNY/ton to 8851 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8602 CNY/ton, 441 at 8852 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9425 CNY/ton, each increasing by 100 CNY/ton, 100 CNY/ton, and 128 CNY/ton respectively [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side: Southern regions are increasing production as the wet season approaches, while major manufacturers in the northern regions have no plans for resumption, leading to stable overall production [1]. - Demand side: The restart of organic silicon monomer plants has increased demand for industrial silicon, while polysilicon production remains stable, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a low season with stable procurement based on demand [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has improved due to the increase in downstream demand and the rise in polysilicon prices, which are expected to support further price increases for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].