近期金融市场的焦点在于美联储独立性所面临的严峻挑战。相关资料显示，美联储主席鲍威尔已收到司 法部的传票，涉及此前关于办公大楼装修的证词，这一史无前例的法律行动被外界普遍视为政治压力干 预货币政策的信号。FXGT表示，这种政经博弈加剧了投资者对于政策稳定性的担忧，直接导致市场风 险偏好骤降。鲍威尔在声明中将此类威胁视为破坏美联储独立性的"借口"，这种对抗态势的升级，无疑 为避险资产注入了更多溢价空间。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部。具体数据显示，2月黄金期货一 度飙升逾120美元，触及4627.10美元高位，而3月白银同样表现不俗，站稳86美元关口。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending a 17-day rally, closing down 0.64% at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.37% at 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% at 3321.89 points [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 36.991 trillion, an increase of 541 billion from the previous day, marking a historical high [2] Market Dynamics - The market saw a significant divergence after a rapid rise to around 4200 points, which is considered a normal phenomenon [3] - The recent consistent upward trend led to a highly uniform market expectation, making a trend reversal likely when consensus is reached [4] - The financial sector, including major banks and oil companies, provided support to the market, mitigating further declines in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][7] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector, previously very active, saw a full retreat due to mixed performance among stocks and many companies reporting losses [5] - The AI application sector also exhibited significant divergence, with some stocks like Yidian Tianxia seeing a peak increase of 20% before closing at a 10% gain, while others performed poorly [5][6] - Precious metals and energy metals sectors showed resilience with notable rebounds, while the healthcare sector remained strong across various subfields [6] Capital Flow - There was a significant outflow of capital from the market, with a net outflow of 180 billion, affecting stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aerospace Electronic [5][6] - The market did not experience panic selling despite the adjustments, attributed to the financial sector's protective measures [7]

智通财经1月13日讯（编辑 梓隆），今日（1月13日），有色金属龙头股紫金矿业再度拉升，收盘涨幅 近2.63%，盘中股价一度冲至38.90元，创历史新高。同时，其全天成交额118.81亿元，较昨日继续放 量，同时也已连续3个交易日成交额维持在百亿规模。 融资余额持续新高，万亿俱乐部添一员 自去年年末以来，紫金矿业股价持续走高，截至今日收盘，其近20个交易日累计共上涨近21%。受连日 攀升提振，紫金矿业的市值规模不断上升，以收盘数据统计，其今日首次站上万亿市值关口，总市值 （证监会算法）达10044亿元，成为"万亿俱乐部"中的一员。其中，紫金矿业A股市值近7878亿元，在 整个A股市场中位居第十位。 注 1：紫金矿业总市值规模变动情况（截至1月13日收盘） 注2：总市值以证监会算法统计（A股股本*A股股价+其他市场股本*其他市场股价*汇率） 以资金面层面统计，紫金矿业近期持续获融资客加仓。截至1月12日数据，其目前融资余额已达91.59亿 元，不仅为首次突破90亿元关口，同时也创历史新高，其年内累计获增持近10.24亿元，增幅近12.6%。 其中，融资客在12月29日（2025年）、1月7日、1月12日大举增持 ...

中信期货表示，金银价格再度放量上行，宏观与地缘风险共振，流动性与资源安全预期成为主线。此 外，美联储独立性受损的交易逻辑重新定价，黄金延续趋势性上行，白银在现货紧张与高弹性驱动下加 速冲高，短期波动显著放大。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 1月13日，三大指数集体调整，其中创业板指冲高回落跌近2%。板块上看，贵金属概念股集体上涨，晓 程科技、湖南白银涨超5%领涨，山金国际、山东黄金、招金黄金等多只概念股跟涨。 消息面上，隔夜纽约商品交易所2月黄金期价12日一度触及每盎司4630.19美元；3月白银期价一度冲上 每盎司86美元，涨幅超过8%，均创历史新高。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 院種科技 | 38.47 | 8.52% | 56.63万 | | 21.52亿 | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 9.02 | 7.64% | 441.51万 | | 39.64亿 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | 26.97 | 4.86% | 52.80万 | | 14.36亿 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 46.27 | 2.80% | 51.66万 | | 24.01亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 14.22 | 2.60% | 45.79万 | | 6.54亿 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 25.64 | 2.48% | 88.31万 | | 22.76亿 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 30.72 | 2.43% | 22.56万 | | 6.92 7 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 29.84 | 1.70% | 29.88万 | | 26 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant early rise but narrowed gains in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,848.47 points, up 239.99 points, or 0.90% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 315.2 billion HKD, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1] Sector Highlights - Gold stocks continued their upward trend, with China Gold International (HK02099) rising over 7%, Lingbao Gold (HK03330) up nearly 3%, and Zijin Mining (HK01818) and Shandong Gold (HK01787) both increasing over 2% [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,869.79 points, up 6.59 points, or 0.11% [4] Company News - Citigroup has aggressively raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, predicting gold prices could reach 5,000 USD/oz and silver 100 USD/oz within three months due to escalating geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies [6] - Innovative drug concept stocks performed well, with WuXi AppTec (HK02359) rising over 8% [7] - WuXi AppTec announced an expected annual revenue of 45.456 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by approximately 41.33% to 14.957 billion CNY [9] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (HK09995) signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its new dual-target PD-1/VEGF antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of 650 million USD and potential total payments of up to 5.6 billion USD [11] Market Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market has not yet fully strengthened, with traditional industries still dominating, and concerns over intensified competition among internet companies affecting market sentiment [13] - The pricing power of Hong Kong stocks is influenced by overseas risk appetite, and the appreciation of the RMB is being offset by profit-taking sentiment [13] - The AH premium index indicates that quality H-shares are preferred over A-shares, with domestic investors favoring leading companies through southbound channels [13]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57%, the CSI 300 increasing by 17.66%, the CSI 500 up by 30.39%, and the STAR 50 gaining 35.92% [1] - The most notable performance was in precious metals, with gold and silver entering a historic bull market, leading all asset classes. London spot gold rose by 64.56% throughout the year, nearing $4600 per ounce, while London spot silver surged by 147.79% [1] Precious Metals and Base Metals Cycle - Historical patterns indicate that after gold and silver, base metals like copper and aluminum may enter a super cycle. The sequence of price increases typically follows: gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, and agricultural products [2] - By the end of 2025, gold had increased over 60%, closing around $4320 per ounce, while silver prices saw significant increases, particularly in December, breaking through key price levels [2] - International investment banks are bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026, citing a lack of large mining projects coming online and the decline of older mines. Demand is also expected to rise from sectors like AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and the photovoltaic industry [2] Investment Products in Base Metals - Investment products related to base metals can be categorized into two main types: those that include stocks or ETFs related to base metals and public mutual funds focused on base metals. Unlike precious metals, these products do not directly invest in physical metals [3] - Base metal index funds can be further divided into those tracking stock indices and those tracking futures indices. Examples include the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" and "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF," which invest in stocks of companies related to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare metals [4] Performance of Base Metal Funds - Recent performance data for base metal ETFs shows significant gains, with the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 98.20%, "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 82.96%, and others also showing strong returns [6] - Some bank wealth management products also allocate a portion of their holdings to precious and base metals to enhance returns, although these products carry higher risks compared to pure bond products [8] Practical Investment Tips - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when investing in precious and base metals. For those with a preference for stability, bank wealth management products may be suitable, while those with higher risk tolerance might explore mining stocks and related funds [9] - In the context of base metals, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and consider the volatility of silver, platinum, and palladium. It is recommended to select products that hold ETFs related to gold and base metals for more stable investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is gradually digesting positive events, leading to a high-level fluctuation and subsequent decline in gold prices, which fell below the $4600 mark, closing around $4588 per ounce on the COMEX [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the A-share market close, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 0.13%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 2.56%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) gained 1.05% [1] Group 2: Margin Requirement Changes - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a change in the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, moving from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of nominal value [1] - This change is set to take effect after Tuesday's close and is described as a normal assessment of market volatility aimed at ensuring sufficient collateral coverage [1] Group 3: Short-term Implications - According to Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank, the adjustment in margin rules may temporarily exert pressure on precious metals in the short term [1] - The percentage-based method is expected to better reflect the required margin levels, reducing the need for frequent adjustments; however, CME may still increase the percentage if volatility exceeds historical levels or unforeseen circumstances arise [1]

| | 板块名称 涨跌幅 (%) 板块资金流向 | | 净流入最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电网设备 | 1.14 | 19.56亿元 | 特变电工 | | 医疗器械 | 1.28 | 13.32亿元 | 迈瑞医疗 | | 化学制药 | 1.23 | 11.16亿元 | 尔康制药 | | 能源金属 | 1.5 | 9.84亿元 | 赣锋锂业 | | 生物制品 | 2.53 | 9.09亿元 | 康乐卫士 | | 游戏 | 1.22 | 8.86亿元 | 掌趣科技 | | 医疗服务 | 3.45 | 8.42亿元 | 国际医学 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.94 | 5.28亿元 | 海王生物 | | 银行 | 0.67 | 4.84亿元 | 农业银行 | | | 3.54 | 4.75亿元 | 湖南白银 | | 医药商业 贵金属 | | | | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 据交易所数据显示，截至1月13日收盘，大盘主力资金净流出1805.56亿元。主力资金流入前十大板块分别为： 电网设备（19.56亿元）、 医疗器械（13.32亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding market analysis, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,600 per ounce. The fundamentals are affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [1] - **Silver**: The silver price reached $85 per ounce. The speculation sentiment is strong, and the overall volatility increases. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price continued to strengthen. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 1.01% to 24,575 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose by 0.81% to 2,866 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [2] - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc price is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamentals are not strong. The lead market shows a weak reality, and it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - **Silicon**: The silicon price fluctuates. The supply is affected by production reduction, and the demand in some industries is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand in some industries is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be supported and is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price fell. The market is affected by regulatory factors, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand in some downstream industries is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3] - **Tin**: The tin price continued to strengthen. The supply of tin mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar price rose slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fell slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The global soybean supply is expected to be loose. The US soybean is weak, and the domestic far - month contract is under pressure. The near - month contract depends on the game between the throwing volume and customs clearance [7] - **Corn**: The corn futures price is strong, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price rose. The supply is in a seasonal decline, and the demand is increasing. The inventory has risen. The oils and fats market is expected to be in a strong shock, and the long - term weak seasonal decline cycle can be traded [7] - **Sugar**: The sugar price fell. The international sugar price is under pressure from Indian production. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose slightly. The international cotton supply and demand are changing, and the domestic cotton price is rising. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [7] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price fell, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Hogs**: The hog futures price fell, and the spot price rose in some areas. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Apples**: The apple price fell. The total output is low, and the inventory is low, but the sales pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is slowing down, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to buy on dips in the medium term [8] - **PVC**: The PVC price fell and then rebounded. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread of short - selling the 05 contract and long - buying the 09 contract [8] - **PTA**: The PX and PTA supply are high, and the demand is weak. The PX price is expected to be strong in the medium term, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to buy the 05 contract for processing fees [9] - **Rubber**: The rubber price rose. The raw material price is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short - term short positions cautiously [9] - **Glass**: The glass price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct a long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [9] - **PP**: The PP price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is rising. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to go short on rallies in the medium term [9] - **MEG**: The MEG supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short the oil as a bearish allocation and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the styrene supply and demand are weakening. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on styrene or conduct a pure benzene reverse spread in the second quarter [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [10]