Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract also decreased. The US Midwest planting belt has favorable soil moisture due to rainfall this week, which is beneficial for crops. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased, while the unexecuted contracts have decreased. The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, adding pressure to the market. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has exceeded expectations, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [2][3][4][5] - In the short term, CBOT soybean futures are expected to find support at 1000 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract may test the support level of 2920, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The live hog market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with prices changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell by 0.23% to 2983 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 14150 yuan/ton. The national average ex-farm price of三元hogs was 13.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell by 1.00% to 1012 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in the Main Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable soil moisture. The western and eastern regions will have scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday, with temperatures above normal until Tuesday. In the future, there will be scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry weather from Thursday to Friday, and scattered showers from Saturday to Sunday. The temperature will drop on Wednesday and be close to or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture and rainfall can relieve crop stress [3] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 645.59 million tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 4.48% week-on-week to 104.31 million tons, the unexecuted contracts decreased by 14.76% week-on-week to 423.01 million tons, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased by 0.42% week-on-week to 170.19 million tons [4] - On July 29, the import cost of US soybeans was 4140 yuan, a decrease of 37 yuan from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3895 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan; and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3670 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan [4] - On July 28, the soybean meal trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills increased slightly to 116000 tons, the spot trading volume increased to 63000 tons, and the basis trading volume increased to 53000 tons. The average trading price was 2910.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.03 yuan/ton, hitting a nearly two-week low [5] - The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, including soybeans and their products. The soybean export tax has been reduced from 33% to 26%, and the soybean meal and soybean oil export tax has been reduced from 31% to 24.5% [5] - As of July 27, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 70%, higher than the previous week's 68% and last year's 67%, which surprised analysts who expected a decline [5] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans in 19 working days, with an average daily shipment of 549900 tons, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [5] - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409714 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 47.203279 million tons [6] - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large-scale designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million head, a 6.5% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. The cumulative slaughter volume in the first six months of this year was 183.55 million head, a 14.5% increase year-on-year [6] - In the first half of this year, the total social logistics volume in China was 171.3 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period [6] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 2.0% [7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expected low temperature and timely rainfall in the US crop belt, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate reached 70% as of July 27, higher than the expected 67%. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract continued to decline due to the impact of the external market and inventory pressure. In the short term, it may test the support level of 2920. Although the current inventory pressure of oil mills is large, the increase in import cost and seasonal consumption growth make the market expect the soybean meal price to rise. The short-term decline of the soybean meal spot price is limited, and it may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The market focus is on the Sino-US talks. If US soybeans cannot be imported, the market may import Argentine soybean meal to make up for the supply gap [17][18] - Live Hogs: On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has gradually recovered since mid-July, and the proportion of large hog slaughter has accelerated in the southern region due to high temperature and rainy weather, increasing the supply. On the demand side, high temperature suppresses people's willingness to buy pork, and the off-take speed at the terminal is slow. The slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to decline but is higher than last year. Overall, the short-term supply increase and weak demand suppress price fluctuations, but as the price weakens, it may stimulate the breeding end to support the price and attract secondary fattening. The price is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate weakly. The 9 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, while the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. The import of corn continues to supply the market, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline. The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to favorable weather in the US. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the decline of the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price of soybean meal [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. The BMD palm oil continues to be weak, with production increasing and exports decreasing. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating due to various factors [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to oscillate. The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn has reduced positions, and the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, especially in the 8 - 9 month period. The price in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is slightly weak. The import corn auction has a 28%成交 rate, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. Technically, the 9 - month contract price has returned to the 2320 - 2330 yuan range, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to good weather in the US. The US soybean good rate is 70%, higher than expected. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil is weak due to the decline of vegetable oils and concerns about increased production. From July 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while the export decreased by 8.53%. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating [1]. - **Eggs**: After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The main 2509 contract opened lower and then rebounded, and then declined again. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3.2 Market Information - From July 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10%, and the production increased by 5.52%. The export volume from July 1 - 25 is expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week of July 25, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week - on - week, 250,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [3]. - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of national main oil mills in July will be about 10 million tons, still at a historical high. In August, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, considering the risk of heat damage in summer, the oil mills are expected to maintain a high operating rate, and the monthly crushing volume will be about 9 million tons [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents the contract spreads and contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and hogs, but does not provide specific analysis of these spreads [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][18][24][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is still weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to factors such as expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 8048, down 6 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 29 (down 70.41%) and an open interest of 212 (up 1.44%); PK510 closed at 8102, down 40 (-0.49%), with a trading volume of 70,017 (down 41.26%) and an open interest of 102,299 (up 0.63%); PK601 closed at 8026, down 22 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 3,631 (down 38.56%) and an open interest of 11,382 (up 4.14%) [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Henan Nanyang peanut spot price was 9000, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, all unchanged. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, Rizhao soybean meal was 2850, peanut oil was 15000, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8260 (up 20). The basis of Henan Nanyang peanuts was 898, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 298, and the basis of peanut oil - soybean oil was 6740. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250, unchanged [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 22 (down 16), PK04 - PK10 was - 54 (up 34), and PK10 - PK01 was 76 (down 18) [3]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general peanuts were 4.4 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu was 4.4 yuan/jin, Henan's Baisha general peanuts were 4.4 - 4.45 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan was 4.1 yuan/jin, and imported Sudan refined peanuts were 8300 yuan/ton, all unchanged. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - break price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5]. - Rizhao soybean meal spot price was weak, at 2840 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, and short - term peanut meal was weak, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3250 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 futures are in a low - level oscillation, and short - term investors should wait and see [10]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six related figures, including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [14][21][22].

Report Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][9] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a loose supply. In China, the tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drives up the price, but the strong expectation of a good harvest and weak terminal demand limit the upside. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the price [3] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, which will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upside. The new sugar listing in the new season will increase the downward pressure [5][6] - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry lacks positive drivers [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,473 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 17, 2025, the US cumulative net signed export of 2024/25 cotton was 2.775 million tons, reaching 108% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.539 million tons, with a shipment rate of 91.51% [2] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.53%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [5] - Brazil exported 3,175,734.56 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average in July last year. As of July 20, the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi was about 910,000 tons, 190,000 tons more than last year [5] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (-2.90%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will have a loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the expected tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drive up the price, but the good harvest expectation and weak terminal demand limit the upside [3] Sugar - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term, but the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and India's policies bring uncertainties. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports limits the upside [5][6] Pulp - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year as the port de - stocking is slow and domestic production capacity is increasing. The demand improvement is limited due to the weak overseas consumption and the traditional off - season in China [8] Strategies Cotton - The long - term industry does not have a continuous upward driver, and the upside of the far - month 01 contract is limited [4] Sugar - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar will fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6] Pulp - The short - term price increase is driven by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are not improved. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased, and the weather forecast indicated potential high - temperature stress in the southwest, supporting the U.S. soybean futures price. The export outlook of U.S. soybeans improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, the emphasis on soybean meal reduction and the loose supply pattern led to a decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange meal futures price. However, due to trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, limiting the further decline of soybean meal prices [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Indonesia's latest fundamental data is favorable, and the expected increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will boost palm oil export demand and support its price. With the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines of - 0.27%, - 1.85%, and - 3.15% respectively. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, while the peanut closing price increased by 0.29%. There were changes in spreads and price - to - spreads compared to the previous values [1]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the BMD palm oil price increased by 0.33%, while the CBOT soybean, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal prices decreased by - 0.32%, - 0.71%, and - 0.53% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Basis**: Domestic spot prices of soybean oil in Tianjin and Guangzhou increased slightly, while the 24° palm oil price in Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou decreased. The prices of soybean meal in Nantong and rapeseed meal in Nantong increased, while the price of soybean meal in Dongguan decreased. There were corresponding changes in spot basis [1]. - **Spreads**: The spot spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, showed certain changes [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - Import and crushing profits of different oilseeds and oils, including Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, U.S. West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the same period last month, with a 15.22% decrease according to Amspec and a 9.2% decrease according to ITS [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean粕 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The bean粕 futures price showed a weak oscillation. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. There are obvious macro - factor disturbances, and the trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean粕 remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2]. - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean粕 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) compared to the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed粕 spot price in Fujian was 2610 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Market News: Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Argentina's president announced a reduction in most agricultural product export tariffs, with the soybean export tariff dropping from 33% to 26%, and the bean粕 and soybean oil tariff from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Analysis - The bean粕 futures price was weak. Favorable US weather, improving trade relations, high domestic soybean arrivals, and rising inventory contribute to a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.35%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.68%) [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Market News: As of July 19, the harvesting progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 55.5%. Brazil's 2024/25 corn production is expected to reach 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase. The EU's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 60.13 million tons, up 0.9% year - on - year; imports are expected to be 18.33 million tons, down 7.0% year - on - year; exports are expected to be 4.23 million tons, up 69.2% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. On the supply side, traders' shipments stabilized after negative - factor digestion. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises declined, and feed enterprises had sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions weakened, but market fluctuations may occur due to new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].

2025 年 07 月 29 日 豆粕：调整震荡 豆一：调整震荡 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4153 | +70（-1.66%） -43（-1.03%） 4140 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2990 | -35（-1.16%） 2977 -24（-0.80%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1011.5 | -10.25（-1.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 279.4 | n a -2.3（-0.82%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 较昨-20至持平； 2890～2910， M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-20或-10； 9月M2509+0， | | ...

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 0.86% [1] - ICE white sugar futures rose by 0.70% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures gained 0.87% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a rise of 1.13% [1] - Robusta coffee futures surged by 3.59% [1] - New York cocoa futures increased by 2.95%, reaching $8575 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 1.51% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a slight increase of 0.10% [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of perfect weather on the August soybean pod-setting period in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean futures are experiencing a downward trend, indicating a potential opening of a bearish channel [1] - U.S. corn prices have dropped to a two-week low, raising questions about whether funds are betting on changing weather conditions or a surge in demand [1] Group 2 - Funds have reduced their short positions for three consecutive weeks, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1]