2025 年 12 月 16 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 期货部分：价格指报告日前一交易日收盘价：涨跌幅（除外盘）以收盘价计算，外盘以收盘价与其前一日结算价计算。基差部分：选取 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 AmSpec：马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为587657吨，较上月同期出口的702692吨减少16.37%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 613172 吨，较上月同期出口的 728995 吨减少 15.89%。 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,558 | -0.58% | 8,436 | -1.43% | | | 豆油主力 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - Palm oil:减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 [2] - Soybean oil:美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 [2] - Soybean meal:美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 [2] - Soybean:现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 [2] - Corn:关注现货 [2] - Sugar:偏弱运行 [2] - Cotton:震荡偏强关注下游需求20251216 [2] - Eggs:震荡调整 [2] - Hogs:冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 [2] - Peanuts:关注油厂收购 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of palm oil futures had a decline, with a -0.58% drop in the day - session and -1.43% at night. The trading volume decreased by 32,641 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7,815 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 80 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: AmSpec and ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.37% and 15.89% respectively compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October. [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,558 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.22% drop and 8,436 yuan/ton at night with a -3.72% drop. The trading volume increased by 15,699 hands, and the open interest decreased by 21,110 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November decreased by 5.1% compared to October but increased by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2024. The soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies reached a seven - month high. USDA reported private exporters' sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery. [9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: For DCE soybean 2601, the day - session closing price was 4,130 yuan/ton with a -0.51% drop, and 4,084 yuan/ton at night with a -1.40% drop. For DCE soybean meal 2605, the day - session closing price was 2,758 yuan/ton with a -0.54% drop, and 2,748 yuan/ton at night with a -0.51% drop. [13] - **News**: On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined due to concerns about US soybean exports and the expected harvest in Brazil. Private exporters reported sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/2026. NOPA's November soybean crushing volume decreased by 5.1% from October but increased by 11.83% from the same period last year. [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,228 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.67% drop and 2,226 yuan/ton at night with a -0.09% drop. The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 10,638 hands, and the open interest decreased by 47,264 hands. [17] - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain collection price remained flat. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable, and the container price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were relatively stable, and North China prices were stable with a slight increase. [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.93 cents/pound with a -0.17 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,370 yuan/ton with a -10 change. The futures main contract price was 5,207 yuan/ton with a -7 change. [20] - **News**: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season in India had a 28.3% increase in sugar production year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 9 tons year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October increased by 21 tons, and imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 11 tons. [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,990 yuan/ton in the day - session with a 1.01% increase and 14,020 yuan/ton at night with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume increased by 154,405 hands, and the open interest increased by 13,531 hands. [25] - **News**: Cotton spot trading volume increased significantly. Cotton yarn prices had local fluctuations, with the overall off - season atmosphere remaining strong. ICE cotton futures had a small increase but then declined due to poor export data. [26] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,122 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.23% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 69,982 hands, and the open interest decreased by 4,363 hands. [29] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 11,480 yuan/ton with a 50 increase. The futures prices of hogs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,400 yuan/ton, 11,305 yuan/ton, and 11,905 yuan/ton respectively. [32] - **News**: Multiple companies registered hog futures warehouse receipts in December, including Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, etc. [33] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,090 yuan/ton with a -0.02% drop, and the trading volume decreased by 5,391 hands, and the open interest decreased by 6,720 hands. [36] - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions had different trends. In Henan, prices were basically stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were stable with a slight decline; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. [37]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts close lower on December 15, with raw sugar futures dropping by 1.13% to 14.93 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased by 0.16%, closing at 63.93 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a significant decline of 6.43%, settling at $5,875.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures fell by 2.27%, ending at 360.90 cents per pound [1]

January soybeans are presently in a three-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart. That’s keeping the speculator bears confident that prices will continue to trade sideways to lower in the near term. Recent U.S. soybean sales to China, as reported by the USDA, have not been that supportive for soy complex futures prices because that news has already been factored into prices following the U.S.-China trade truce several weeks ago that outlined more China purchases of U.S. soybeans. In fact, soy trade ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price has risen significantly due to strong downstream demand, high spinning mill operating rates, improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, and expected improvement in textile exports. The rapeseed oil price has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may increase supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down. The egg price has a limited rebound due to high inventory and weak terminal demand. The soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak trend. The hog price has limited rebound due to sufficient supply. The sugar price continues to fall due to the pressure of new sugar listing [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton futures prices have risen significantly, with downstream demand strong and spinning mills having high operating rates. The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations has improved the export expectations of textiles, and the cotton main contract has broken through the 14,000 integer mark, with the upward space opened. Rapeseed oil has declined as Australian rapeseed arrivals may lead to increased supply, and the weakness of related palm oil has also dragged it down [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The focus is on the significant rise of cotton. The main 2605 contract has broken through 14,000, opening the upward space. Supported by strong demand, as of December 4, the national cotton sales rate was 37.3%, a year - on - year increase of 21.9 percentage points. Xinjiang's industrial policy may reduce the cotton planting area by about 10% next year. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to continue to go long on dips [2] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The focus is on the significant decline of rapeseed oil. The main 2605 contract has fallen significantly. Although the customs has tightened the inspection of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil imports, the impact on actual supply and demand is limited. The arrival of Australian rapeseed will increase supply, and overseas production is abundant. Palm oil is also weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a stop - loss reference of the 5 - day moving average at 9233 [3] 3.2.3 Egg - The focus is on the low - level rebound of eggs. The main 2602 contract has rebounded but has not changed the downward trend. The egg production is sufficient, the inventory consumption is the main task at all links, and the terminal demand support is weak. Technically, it is still weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The focus is on the near - strong and far - weak trend of soybean meal. The January contract is strong, but the main 2605 contract is weak. Although there are rumors about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the oil mill's high - pressure production keeps the soybean meal inventory high. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short at the resistance level [8] 3.2.5 Hog - The focus is on the low - level fluctuation of hogs. The main 2603 contract has limited rebound and continues to move sideways. Although the cold weather has increased consumer demand, the high inventory and the expected concentrated slaughter at the end of the year limit the rebound space. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [9][11] 3.2.6 Sugar - The focus is on the continued decline of sugar. The main 2605 contract has fallen after a brief rise. With the progress of sugar cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, the new sugar supply pressure is increasing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to lightly short with a resistance level at 5227 [12]

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient driving force from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment [2]. - Soybean: Adjustment and fluctuation [2]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: Consolidation at a low level [2]. - Cotton: Fluctuating strongly, pay attention to downstream demand [2]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,608 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.55%, and 8,496 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1.30%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,240 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.34%, and 7,954 yuan/ton during the night session, down 3.47% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, global soybean exports are expected to increase, mainly driven by Brazil. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25. US soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25 [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2601 was 4,138 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.70%, and 4,122 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.70%. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,770 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.58%, and 2,765 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.29% [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 12, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were worried about the slowdown in US soybean export demand and the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity: -1; soybean trend intensity: -1 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,242 yuan/ton, up 0.22% during the day session and unchanged during the night session. The closing price of C2603 was 2,233 yuan/ton, down 0.04% during the day session and up 0.04% during the night session [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price remained flat. The price of imported sorghum and barley in Guangdong was reported [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity: 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 15.1 cents/pound, up 0.25. The mainstream spot price was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 40. The futures main contract price was 5,214 yuan/ton, down 31 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 25/26 fiscal year increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, an increase of 210,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity: -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.07%, and 13,905 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.40%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.12%, and 20,055 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.38% [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The price of pure cotton yarn was generally stable, and some spinning mills reduced prices to clear inventory. ICE cotton futures fell slightly, and US cotton exports were still poor [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity: 0 [28]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton, down 60. The closing price of PK601 was 8,108 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,080 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [30]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha common peanuts were priced at 3.7 - 3.85, and Kaifeng large peanuts were priced at 3.8 - 3.9. In Jilin, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Liaoning, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Shandong, the supply was limited, and the price was basically stable [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity: 0 [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [2][4]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production in December showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in the first ten days, and exports from December 1 - 10 rose by 46.98% compared to the previous month. Despite current high inventories, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. Palm oil is expected to trade with short - term fluctuations and a potential upward trend in the future [6]. - **Sugar**: Newly estimated sugar production in major producing countries is increasing, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended [10][11]. - **Cotton**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely due to limited driving forces and hedging pressure [13][14]. - **Eggs**: With high egg production inventory and limited short - term demand growth, egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize. The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17][18]. - **Pigs**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Although China is continuously purchasing US soybeans, the sales progress is slow, and South American soybean - growing areas have received good rainfall. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL estimates that this week's soybean crushing volume will be 2.0445 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons last week. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.13 last week, up 0.64 days from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Soybean import cost has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited. With high domestic inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Shipments from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the previous month. Last Friday, domestic oil futures closed lower at night, pressured by Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up and increased production [6]. - **Strategy**: Although current palm oil inventories are high, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. The MPOB monthly report may have short - term negative impacts, but there is a seasonal upward trend. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Spot sugar prices in major regions also declined, except for processed sugar, which remained stable. Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production to increase by 6% in the 2025/26 season but decrease in the 2026/27 season. As of November 30, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased in the week ending December 10 [9][10]. - **Strategy**: With an expected increase in global sugar production, international sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price index increased slightly. As of December 12, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was slightly adjusted downwards [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable over the weekend, with some areas showing weakness. The laying hen inventory remains high, and short - term demand is unlikely to increase [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose over the weekend. Snow in the north affected pig sales, and consumption in both the north and south increased due to the cold weather [20]. - **Strategy**: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [21].

1. Sugar Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core Viewpoint The sugar price is expected to remain weak in the coming week due to ample supply prospects, with the futures market price weakening and the basis sugar price following suit. There is a lack of positive factors to drive a price rebound [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.71% and 0.59% respectively. The ICE raw sugar主力 rose by 1.62%. The 1 - 5 spread of sugar decreased by 6.19%. The main contract's open interest increased by 6.51%. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.75% respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 9.57%, while the Kunming basis decreased by 12.00%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%. The national cumulative sales rate decreased by 24.75%, while the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%. Sugar imports increased by 38.89% [2]. 2. Cotton Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core Viewpoint The international cotton market maintains a volatile trend, while the domestic cotton market is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long - term but faces constraints in the short - term. The cotton price has limited downside space but faces pressure above, with attention paid to the pressure around 14000 - 14100 [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.18%. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.27%. The 5 - 1 spread of cotton increased by 250.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 13.59%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.79%, and the valid forecasts increased by 3.43% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B increased, while the FC Index: M: 1% decreased. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract and 3128B - 05 contract increased [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The shortage increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 1.8%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 0.1%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 3.9%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year of monthly retail sales increased by 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year of monthly export increased by 110.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year of export increased by 31.5% [5]. 3. Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core Viewpoint In the short - term, the corn price is relatively firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the upward space is limited by supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas and the downstream replenishment situation [7]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.75%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The Shekou bulk grain price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.13%, and the import profit increased by 1.01%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 42.09%. The open interest decreased by 1.05%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.30% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 increased by 0.12%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 4.48%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.77%, the starch - corn 01盘面 spread increased by 1.43%. The Shandong starch profit increased by 5.26%. The open interest decreased by 1.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. 4. Oil and Fat Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 4.2 Core Viewpoint Palm oil may continue to weaken, and there is a risk of falling below 4000 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures maintain a volatile and weak adjustment trend. CBOT soybean oil is mainly in a narrow - range volatile adjustment. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the demand is limited. The basis quotation decline may be limited in the short - term [10]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.34%, and the basis increased by 8.43% [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.15%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.55%, and the basis decreased by 216.67%. The import cost decreased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20%, the OI2605 futures price increased by 0.09%, and the basis increased by 2.74% [10]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to varying degrees [10]. 5. Pig Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 5.2 Core Viewpoint The spot pig price is stable, and the downward - support ability is enhanced with the increasing demand for pickling in the south. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market. The overall supply pressure is still large, and the price is hard to improve [12]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 31.25%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.68%, the price of pig 2603 increased by 0.94%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 4.17%. The main contract's open interest increased by 0.89%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.48%, the daily strip price remained unchanged, the piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the sow price decreased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the purchased - breeding profit increased by 7.21%, and the fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [12]. 6. Egg Industry 6.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 6.2 Core Viewpoint The egg market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply this week. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited [15]. 6.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 01 contract decreased by 2.13%, the price of the egg 02 contract decreased by 1.58%, the basis increased by 106.60%, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased by 11.36% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.20%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, the culled - hen price increased by 2.85%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. The terminal consumption is less than expected, and the demand side is insufficient. The production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged compared with the previous day [15]. 7. Meal Industry 7.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 7.2 Core Viewpoint The medium - to - long - term price of US soybeans is not optimistic. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the unilateral trend is suppressed. Attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread [17]. 7.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price increased by 1.31%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.73%, the basis increased by 6.45%, and the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 40.9% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu rapeseed meal price remained unchanged, the RM2605 futures price increased by 1.03%, the basis decreased by 27.59%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 2.68% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.84%, the basis increased by 15.02%. The price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 0.26%, and the basis increased by 7.41% [17]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread, the soybean - to - meal ratio, and the oil - to - meal ratio changed to varying degrees [17].