【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨幅前五位是石油石化（+1.74%）、建筑材料（+ 截至目前，LPR已连续8个月保持不变。 3）盈方微于今日复牌并披露重大资产重组进展，拟收购上海肖克利及富士德中国100%股权以强化半导体分销业 务。 四、后市展望和思考 融资端约束叠加题材澄清、业绩扰动，行情更可能从"高弹性主线"转向"可验证线索"主导的轮动：一是涨价与供给 收敛的资源、化工链，二是地产链的低位修复与政策预期交易，三是年报预告驱动的业绩线索。 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨 ...

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" with a focus on key areas, including a special guarantee plan of 500 billion yuan for private investment to guide banks in providing 500 billion yuan in loans for small and micro enterprises[2] - A loan interest subsidy policy will be implemented for small and micro enterprises, covering 14 key industrial chains and related sectors, which is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97%, with a total trading volume of 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw declines of 2.39% for the Nasdaq, 2.06% for the S&P 500, and 1.76% for the Dow Jones, reflecting a general downturn in global markets[3] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond was 1.8260%, with a change of -1.66 basis points, while the average rates for interbank R001 and R007 were 1.4212% and 1.5429%, respectively[3] - The U.S. dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and real estate, with gains of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55%, respectively[3] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and computers experienced declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94%[3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注财政政策。宏观方面，财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策出炉。其中，首次设立5000亿元民间投资专 项担保计划，引导银行新增投放5000亿元中小微企业民间投资贷款。首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政 策，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔 相关领域。优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息、个人消费贷贴息、设备更新贷款贴息等政策，个人信用 卡账单分期纳入贴息范围。海外方面，特朗普在记者会上表示，如果现行关税工具受限，他"可以使用 其他方式"，例如通过"许可制度"等替代手段。他强调，目前正在使用的方式是"最好、最强、最快、最 简单、最不复杂的"，但并非唯一选择。 指数震荡调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡调整，上证指数0.01%收于4113.65点，创业板指跌 1.79%。行业方面，板块指数涨跌互现，石油石化、建筑材料、房地产、交通运输行业领涨，通信、国 防军工、计算机行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额为2.8万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收 跌，纳指跌2.39%报22 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined on January 20, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79% to 3277.98 points [2] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 27,775 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Market Observation - The market opened high but closed low, with core broad-based indices showing more declines than gains. The China Securities Dividend Index and Dividend Index led the gains, while the Growth and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices led the declines [3] Index Performance - The A-share market saw varied performance across indices, with the Dividend Low Volatility Index up 1.5% while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index remained flat over the day [4] - Over the past five days, the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.6%, while the ChiNext Index has seen a decline of 1.3% [4] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors saw gains, with oil and petrochemical up 1.7%, construction materials up 1.7%, and real estate up 1.5% [5][6] - Conversely, sectors such as communication, defense, aerospace, and computing experienced declines, with the computing sector down 1.9% [5][6] Hot Industry - Oil and Petrochemical - The oil and petrochemical sector rose by 1.7%, with East China Securities noting that while pressures remain, there is potential for recovery. Key conditions for an upward cycle include rising oil prices, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulation through monetary easing [7] - The World Bank forecasts moderate GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, indicating potential for recovery in the sector as capital expenditures decrease and outdated capacities are eliminated [7] Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced that overall fiscal spending in 2026 will continue to increase, with a focus on improving structure and efficiency [8] - The government debt ratio remains low compared to G20 averages, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [8] - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been introduced, with a total quota of 500 billion yuan to support small and medium-sized enterprises [9]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a turbulent adjustment with all major indices closing lower, including the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.01% to 4113.65, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.97% to 14155.63, and the ChiNext down by 1.79% to 3277.98 [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 1.74%), Building Materials (up 1.71%), Real Estate (up 1.55%), Transportation (up 1.25%), and Building Decoration (up 1.24%) [3][4] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Communication (down 3.23%), Defense & Military (down 2.87%), Computer (down 1.94%), Comprehensive (down 1.87%), and Electric Equipment (down 1.84%) [3][4] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices were Epoxy Propylene (up 5.78%), Glyphosate (up 3.45%), Acrylic Acid (up 2.64%), NMN Concept (up 1.95%), and Cultured Diamonds (up 1.93%) [3][4] - The lagging concept indices included Satellite Navigation (down 3.16%), Terahertz (down 3.15%), 6G Concept (down 2.98%), F5G Concept (down 2.97%), and Chengfei Concept (down 2.87%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the A-share market is in a short-term adjustment phase, with a potential shift from a "fund-driven" rapid growth model to a "performance-driven" slow bull market [6] - It is anticipated that macroeconomic improvements and a rebound in corporate earnings will drive mid-term upward trends, with the spring market expected to continue [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology growth, new energy, and dividend stocks [6] Policy Developments - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance and other departments announced five documents establishing a special guarantee plan through the National Financing Guarantee Fund, with a scale of 500 billion yuan to be implemented over two years [5] - The policy includes extending the personal consumption loan interest subsidy until the end of 2026, with a subsidy rate of 1% for credit card installment payments and 1.5% for fixed asset loans related to equipment upgrades [5]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips as the direction for investment [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market recovery [2][6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating significant progress in industry consolidation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated capacity with advanced production capacity signal a shift towards technological and institutional innovation in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for households and enterprises [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy combination may emerge in 2026 [4][6]

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, which performed relatively well, and the CSI 300 Value Index, which also showed positive performance[2][6] - The report highlights the performance of different industry indices, with the petroleum and petrochemical, building materials, real estate, construction, and transportation industries performing well, while the defense, communications, computer, comprehensive finance, and electrical industries performed poorly[7] - The report provides data on market sentiment, including the number of stocks that hit their daily limit up or down, and the performance of these stocks the following day[13][14] - The report includes information on market capital flows, such as the balance of margin financing and securities lending, and the proportion of these balances relative to the total market capitalization[19][22] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, highlighting the ETFs with the highest premiums and discounts on a specific day[23][25] - The report provides data on block trading, including the average daily transaction amount and discount rate over the past six months[26][28] - The report includes information on the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of stock index futures for various indices, such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000[28][30] - The report highlights the stocks that received the most institutional attention over the past week, with specific stocks being mentioned[30][32] - The report provides data on the top ten stocks with the highest net inflows and outflows from institutional seats and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect[36][37][38][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the mainland bond market is expected to maintain a low - interest - rate environment. "Going outbound" to seek high - coupon bonds remains one of the main demands of non - bank institutions. The new "Southbound Connect" policy may be gradually implemented, so investors can actively focus on the Hong Kong bond market to further explore investment value [2]. - The expansion of the "Southbound Connect" mechanism will significantly broaden the channels for non - bank institutions such as securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and bank wealth management to participate in the Hong Kong bond market. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of dim sum bonds, which have been continuously expanding in recent years, and Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a large outstanding scale [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Hong Kong Bond Market Development History and Outstanding Structure Characteristics 3.1.1 Development History: From Dominated by US Dollar Bonds to the Rise of RMB Bonds - The Hong Kong bond market can be divided into three development stages. Before 2015, it was in a slow - development stage, with the issuance scale growing from $100 million in 1989 to $103.3 billion in 2014, mainly corporate bonds. After the launch of the "Government Bond Program" in 2009, the issuance scale of government bonds began to increase [3][15]. - From 2015 - 2021, it experienced rapid development, with the issuance scale growing from $188.5 billion to $499.4 billion. The proportion of government bonds increased, mainly due to the growth of Hong Kong government retail bonds. US dollar bonds also grew rapidly because of the relaxation of overseas debt issuance regulations by the mainland [3][16]. - Since 2022, the total market has been in a stable development stage, but the internal structure has changed. The scale of US dollar bonds has decreased significantly due to tightened mainland regulations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, while RMB bonds have developed rapidly due to China's loose monetary environment and central government policies [4][17]. 3.1.2 Outstanding Structure Characteristics: Chinese Issuers Account for 80%, and the Financial Industry Dominates - As of the end of 2024, the outstanding scales of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds in the Hong Kong bond market were $195.5 billion, $173.2 billion, and $565.6 billion respectively, with corporate bonds accounting for over 70% in each category [24]. - Currently, the total outstanding bond scale in the Hong Kong market is about $1.05 trillion. About 80% of the issuers are from China, about 65% of the remaining maturities are within 3 years, the financial industry accounts for half of the market, and the currency is mainly US dollars [4][25]. 3.2 Hong Kong Bond Market Liquidity and Investor Participation - In terms of liquidity, before the end of 2020, the average daily trading volume of bonds托管 and settled by the CMU system was stable at around HK$5 billion. Since 2021, the launch of the "Southbound Connect" and the increase in the issuance of RMB bonds have promoted the trading volume to increase to HK$20 - 25 billion, and the average daily turnover rate has risen from about 0.5% to around 1% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, asset management institutions, banks, and hedge funds hold 75%, 9%, and 7% of the outstanding bond balances with available holder data respectively. Holders are mainly distributed in the United States, Luxembourg, and China, and foreign - funded enterprises such as BlackRock, Nomura, and HSBC have relatively large management scales [5][41][44]. 3.3 Participation Opportunities in the Hong Kong Bond Market under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" Mechanism 3.3.1 Chinese - funded Overseas Bonds: There are Obvious Excess Spreads, with Priority Focused on - Dim sum bonds: There are opportunities for spread compression in various types of urban investment bonds and high - grade industrial bonds. The outstanding dim sum bonds in the Hong Kong market are 1,376, with a balance of about 1.47 trillion yuan. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 100 - 150BP, and the spreads of low - grade urban investment bonds are mostly between 200 - 400BP [50]. - Chinese - funded US dollar bonds: The excess spreads of all varieties compared with domestic bonds are over 200BP. There are 1,066 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the Hong Kong market, with a balance of about $352.7 billion. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 200 - 300BP, and those of low - grade bonds are over 300BP [53]. - Sub - varieties investment suggestions: For urban investment overseas bonds, select bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over 300 million yuan/dollars. For industrial overseas bonds, focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, and be cautious about the real - estate industry. For financial overseas bonds, pay attention to the overseas bonds of industries such as banks and AMCs [9][57][58]. 3.3.2 Overseas Bonds of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Foreign - funded Enterprises: Focus on High - Quality Entities with Large Outstanding Scales and High Coupons - Consider overseas bonds issued by Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and foreign - funded enterprises with large outstanding scales and high coupon yields, such as Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, Hong Kong Airport Authority, and Qatar Petroleum. These bonds generally have an average yield or coupon rate of over 3% and have certain allocation value. However, credit research and risk screening of the issuers are required before investment [6][10][62].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the buying behavior of large funds by analyzing the proportion of large order transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify buy and sell orders based on bid and ask sequence numbers 2. Filter transactions by order size to identify large orders 3. Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount Formula: $ \text{Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor effectively reflects the buying behavior of large funds[7] 2. Factor Name: Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the active buying behavior of investors by calculating the net active buy amount as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on trade direction 2. Subtract the active sell transaction amount from the active buy transaction amount to obtain the net active buy amount 3. Calculate the proportion of the net active buy amount to the total daily transaction amount Formula: $ \text{Net Active Buy Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the active buying behavior of investors[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio - **Top 5 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: 1. 惠博普 (92.6%, 99.6% percentile)[9] 2. 美年健康 (89.6%, 99.2% percentile)[9] 3. 志特新材 (89.2%, 99.2% percentile)[9] 4. 津滨发展 (88.4%, 99.6% percentile)[9] 5. 江南高纤 (87.7%, 98.8% percentile)[9] 2. Net Active Buy Amount Ratio - **Top 5 Stocks by 5-Day Average**: 1. 杭萧钢构 (16.7%, 99.8% percentile)[10] 2. 纬德信息 (15.4%, 100.0% percentile)[10] 3. 中科微至 (15.0%, 99.6% percentile)[10] 4. 新风光 (13.8%, 100.0% percentile)[10] 5. 联合水务 (13.3%, 97.5% percentile)[10] 3. Broad-Based Indices - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: - 上证指数: 73.8% (12.8% percentile)[12] - 上证50: 70.6% (64.2% percentile)[12] - 沪深300: 73.1% (64.2% percentile)[12] - 中证500: 73.0% (6.6% percentile)[12] - 创业板指: 71.6% (90.1% percentile)[12] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: - 上证指数: -5.8% (86.8% percentile)[12] - 上证50: -12.9% (90.5% percentile)[12] - 沪深300: -8.8% (89.3% percentile)[12] - 中证500: -3.4% (86.0% percentile)[12] - 创业板指: -4.4% (84.8% percentile)[12] 4. Industry-Level Results - **Top 5 Industries by Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: 1. 房地产: 79.8% (90.1% percentile)[13] 2. 煤炭: 78.5% (66.3% percentile)[13] 3. 钢铁: 78.2% (42.8% percentile)[13] 4. 建筑: 77.9% (24.3% percentile)[13] 5. 综合: 77.8% (50.6% percentile)[13] - **Top 5 Industries by Net Active Buy Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: 1. 房地产: -9.5% (95.1% percentile)[13] 2. 电子: 2.2% (78.6% percentile)[13] 3. 汽车: 0.9% (60.9% percentile)[13] 4. 家电: 0.1% (84.4% percentile)[13] 5. 通信: -4.7% (89.7% percentile)[13] 5. ETFs - **Top 5 ETFs by Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: 1. 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF (92.9%, 96.3% percentile)[15] 2. 易方达中证A500ETF (91.6%, 100.0% percentile)[15] 3. 国泰中证A500ETF (91.5%, 15.6% percentile)[15] 4. 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF (91.0%, 99.2% percentile)[15] 5. 易方达沪深300ETF (91.0%, 99.6% percentile)[15] - **Top 5 ETFs by Net Active Buy Amount Ratio (5-Day Average)**: 1. 东财上证科创板50成份ETF (23.4%, 100.0% percentile)[16] 2. 海富通上证城投债ETF (20.9%, 88.5% percentile)[16] 3. 国泰上证10年期国债ETF (15.6%, 61.3% percentile)[16] 4. 富国创业板人工智能ETF (14.3%, 65.9% percentile)[16] 5. 嘉实中证稀土产业ETF (14.1%, 92.6% percentile)[16]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as the preferred investment direction [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market environment [6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic restructuring of coal companies, such as the merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating a shift towards enhancing operational quality [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation of this primary energy source [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated production capacity with advanced capabilities signal a move towards innovation-driven growth in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for homebuyers and distressed companies [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy framework may emerge in 2026 [6]