Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to fall below the previous low in the short term, but it should be treated with a bearish view considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strong commodity market, but the increasing imports will put pressure on the price. The terminal market demand is average, and the procurement is mainly on a need - to - use basis, with weak inventory - stocking willingness. It is expected that Zheng sugar will remain bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "White Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "White Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of white sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 1.24%, and (out - of - quota) increased by 1.28% [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in the whole country increased by 9.70%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar imports increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 34.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18% [2] Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Driven by the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report, the corn futures rebounded. However, the corn's fundamental situation changed little, with continuous auctions of imported corn and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas, which will gradually ease the supply. The market sentiment is weak, the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly, and the spot price is weak but the decline has slowed down. The demand of deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the consumption has not been significantly boosted. Wheat has a price advantage, squeezing the demand for corn. In the short term, the futures may rebound, but the overall sentiment is still weak, and the upside is limited. In the long term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and the supply pressure may remain, with the futures valuation likely to decline [4] Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11.94%. The south - north trade profit decreased by 26.32%, and the import profit increased by 0.61%. The number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased by 25.81%, the trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%, and the starch - corn spread decreased by 3.38%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 10.75%, the open interest decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton industry has short - term rigid demand support but also has relatively pessimistic long - term expectations. The inventory of downstream finished products is not high, and the pressure is not large, but the peak season is not as good as previous years. The market lacks confidence in the future improvement. The short - term domestic cotton price may move in a range, and attention should be paid to macro - level trends [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread of cotton decreased by 48.57%. The main contract's open interest increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the number of effective forecasts decreased by 0.35% [7] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the CC Index: 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The 3128B - 01 contract decreased by 15.32%, and the 3128B - 05 contract decreased by 6.83%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% decreased by 16.00% [7] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 57.9% year - on - year, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 52.5% [7] Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of meals continues to rise, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and USDA's August report lowered the US soybean planting area and ending stocks, causing a sharp rise in US soybeans. Brazil's premium has been strong recently, supporting the domestic import cost. However, the improved expectation of US soybean imports may suppress the price increase. The supply of domestic rapeseed meal is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. The previous long positions in the 01 contract should be held [9] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%; the futures price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis increased by 51.66%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipment's crushing profit decreased by 125.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton. The crushing profit of Canadian 11 - month shipment remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7.55%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 61.54%, the spot oil - meal ratio decreased by 2.99%, the main contract's oil - meal ratio decreased by 1.12%, the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 13.76%, and the 2509 spread decreased by 10.21% [9] Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and the downstream procurement is smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supports the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. The monthly output of large - scale farms is expected to continue to recover in August, and the large pigs previously held by small farmers also need to be sold. The future pig price is still not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down, with strong support at the bottom. Blind short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted when the futures have given good hedging profits [11] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The main contract's open interest increased by 8.78%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [11] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 13800 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15340 yuan/ton; in Hunan, it was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [11] - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - striped pig price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit increased by 2.92%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 14.87%, and the monthly number of fertile sows increased by 0.02% [11][14] Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit, and there is a possibility of breaking through 10,000 yuan in the domestic palm oil futures. For soybean oil, the US Department of Agriculture's report shows that the supply data of soybean oil in the 2025/26 season has been increased. However, the reduction of US soybean production and ending stocks has boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. In the domestic market, the spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly. Traders expect the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and school demand to increase [15] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.98% [15] - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%; the futures price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86%. The import cost of the September contract in Guangzhou Port increased by 0.89%, and the import profit increased by 8.28%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%; the futures price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15] - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of the three oils increased by 33.33%, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 94.12%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil increased by 162.50%. The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 4.81%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 30.28% [15] Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low. Traders and food factories may replenish stocks at low prices, increasing the demand and supporting the price. However, the high inventory level, sufficient supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the price increase. Overall, the egg futures trend is still bearish, and the disturbance of low - level funds should be guarded against [18] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/chick; the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20%, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% [17]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]

Group 1 - Guangdong cities are accelerating key projects and investment attraction under the "Hundred Thousand Project" initiative [4] - Guangzhou signed 15 agricultural projects with a total investment exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on modern agricultural productivity [5][20] - Meizhou Pingyuan County signed projects worth 2.38 billion yuan in various sectors including copper materials and cold chain logistics [6][10] Group 2 - Jiangmen City launched a "Media+" initiative to empower seven actions, aiming to conduct over 100 live-streaming sales events in three years [13][42] - Shantou's Haojiang District introduced the cross-border e-commerce platform Dunhuang.com to enhance its cross-border industry ecosystem [11][141] - The "Media+" initiative in Shantou aims to activate the "2+10+N" agricultural industry structure [55] Group 3 - The "Hundred Thousand Project" is being promoted in various counties, with a focus on rural governance and environmental improvement [31][38] - The project aims to enhance agricultural efficiency, rural vitality, and farmer income through media integration [48][60] - The initiative includes training programs for women in community services and elder care to boost employment [66][70] Group 4 - The "Bamboo and Food Health" industry clusters are being developed in Pingyuan County to stimulate economic growth [130][117] - The establishment of the "Luo Ding Good Products" e-commerce platform aims to integrate resources for agricultural product sales [16][138] - The Dunhuang.com Shantou operation center will provide services to local businesses to enhance their international market success [146][148]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials in China shows a mixed trend, with 18 products experiencing price increases, 29 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in early August 2025 compared to late July 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar and wire rod decreased by 1.1% and 1.3% respectively, while seamless steel pipes saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals category experienced declines in prices for electrolytic copper, aluminum ingots, lead ingots, and zinc ingots, with decreases ranging from 0.5% to 1.7% [4]. - Chemical products showed a mixed performance, with sulfuric acid and methanol prices increasing by 1.7% and 0.6% respectively, while other products like styrene and polyvinyl chloride saw significant declines [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices fell by 2.2% and 1.7% respectively, while gasoline prices remained relatively stable [4]. - Coal prices showed an upward trend, with prices for various types of coal, including anthracite and coking coal, increasing by 2.5% to 9.6% [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - Agricultural products such as corn, cotton, and live pigs experienced price declines, with cotton prices dropping by 3.5% and corn by 0.5% [5]. - Conversely, soybean meal prices increased by 1.3%, indicating some resilience in the agricultural sector [5]. - In forestry products, natural rubber and paper pulp prices fell, while corrugated paper prices increased by 1.7% [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses 9 major categories and 50 products, with data collected from over 2,000 wholesalers and dealers across 31 provinces [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure comprehensive data gathering [9]. Group 5: Price Fluctuation Statistics - The statistics on price fluctuations indicate that the number of products with rising prices is significantly lower than those with declining prices, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the monitored categories [10].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Core Points - The announcement by the National Intellectual Property Administration recognizes five agricultural products from Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, as geographical indication protected products, marking a significant step in the development of local specialty industries [1][2] - The Taiyuan Market Supervision Bureau has actively promoted the recognition process, aligning with the national initiative to enhance rural revitalization and regional economic activation through geographical indication [1][2] Group 1 - Five agricultural products, including "Yangqu Millet," "Qingxu Grapes," and "Loufan Mountain Yam Eggs," have been successfully included in the geographical indication protection product list, bringing the total to 13 for Taiyuan City [1] - The Taiyuan Market Supervision Bureau has collaborated with local departments to ensure accurate verification of product scope and compliance of application materials, which laid a solid foundation for the successful recognition [1] Group 2 - Geographical indications serve as a "certificate of quality" for products and are crucial for regional economic development, enhancing product competitiveness, driving industry upgrades, and promoting farmers' income [2] - The bureau plans to continue strengthening geographical indication protection, providing precise services to enterprises, and managing the use of geographical indication special marks to safeguard the "Taiyuan特色" brand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - strategy area, there are different expectations for Fed's interest - rate cuts, which affect the prices of gold, dollar, and stocks. In the commodity market, different commodities face different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing risks of price correction and others showing potential for price increase [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 if the labor market remains robust. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, with the market risk preference remaining high. The divergence among Fed officials lies in inflation pressure. The market will focus on economic data, and gold is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices have not escaped the volatile trend in the short term [11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since December 2021 on August 13, and the margin trading balance also hit a new high. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been issued [12][13] - Investment advice: Allocate stocks evenly among different stock indexes [14] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US State Department imposed visa restrictions on government officials from Brazil and other countries. US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for at least a 150 - basis - point rate cut, and Trump may appoint a new Fed chairman earlier, which increased market risk preference and weakened the US dollar [15][16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [18] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Bostic prefers to wait for a clearer understanding of the situation before making adjustments, while Bessent believes the Fed may start rate cuts earlier, and the market's rate - cut expectation has further increased. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Index led the gains, but there are still risks of correction [19] - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain strong under the rate - cut expectation, but inflation risks may increase market volatility [20] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's M1 growth rate in July was 5.6%, exceeding market expectations. The financial data divergence is not contradictory. The private sector's willingness to increase loans is weak, but fiscal policies have improved corporate cash flow. It is expected that financial data will not improve significantly in the short term, and M1 growth will peak in September. The bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market [21][23] - Investment advice: Allocation investors can gradually buy when the 10Y and 30Y interest rates are close to 1.75% and 2.0% respectively, and trading investors should be cautious when betting on rebounds [24] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA's weekly export sales report to show a net increase of 60 - 160 million tons of US soybean exports. The CBOT soybean price has been rising, and domestic soybean meal prices have also strengthened. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning [25] - Investment advice: Maintain the view that soybean meal prices will fluctuate upward, and focus on the development of Sino - US relations [25] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia will raise the export tariff of crude palm oil to 10% in September 2025. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. The oil market continued to fluctuate strongly [26][27] - Investment advice: Buy on dips for the three major oils, as prices are expected to continue to strengthen as inventory depletion accelerates [28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. Supply was affected by safety inspections, and demand was affected by the production restrictions of some coke enterprises. The coke price has been raised for the sixth round [29] - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum of the futures market is weak. Pay attention to the impact of policies and demand changes [30] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, the export of passenger cars was 499,000, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The decline of coking coal futures prices led to a weakening of steel prices. The actual supply reduction may be limited, and there is a risk of price correction [31][33] - Investment advice: The market will fluctuate in the short term, and be vigilant against market fluctuations and correction risks [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton export in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 2.82 million tons. The USDA August report lowered the estimated production and ending inventory of US and global cotton. Some large cotton trading enterprises in China have started pre - purchasing new cotton [35][36] - Investment advice: The USDA report has a short - term positive impact on the outer market, but the upward drive may be limited. The domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high [39] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of the corn starch industry has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the开机 rate will remain weakly volatile year - on - year, which is negative for future profits [40] - Investment advice: There is no driving force for the price difference between rice flour and corn starch to strengthen. The price difference between North China and Northeast China may be unfavorable to the 09 contract in September [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to lower prices to test the market. The price of corn was weak, while the price in the northern port was stable. The CBOT corn price fell sharply due to the increase in planted area and yield [42] - Investment advice: The medium - and long - term downward trend of corn prices is expected to continue [42] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tiankang Bio has completed about 50% of its annual target. The pig - breeding industry is in the stage of policy implementation, and the short - term performance of near - month and far - month contracts is different [43] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage [44] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - It is still difficult to purchase domestic ore in some areas. Overseas prices are falling, and ore supply is temporarily sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46] - Investment advice: Wait and see [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The import of lead concentrates will be restricted by new regulations on harmful elements, but the actual impact on import volume is limited. The price of primary lead is more competitive, and the demand is in the stage of waiting for verification of the peak season [49] - Investment advice: Hold long positions established at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc futures price fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the structural risk was still high. The domestic supply was high, and the demand was stable. The short - term trading of zinc is difficult [54] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, manage positions well; for arbitrage, pay attention to the mid - term positive arbitrage opportunity; for domestic - foreign trading, wait and see [54] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - An accident occurred at Albemarle's lithium factory in Chile, and it is under investigation. The suspension of production at Ningde's mine will lead to a reduction in lithium carbonate production and a decrease in inventory [55] - Investment advice: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [55] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Carsurin will build a large - scale photovoltaic power station to support the nickel industry in Indonesia. The LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The price of nickel ore is expected to be seasonally weak in September - October [56][57] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity; in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices [58] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in September has increased, which will support the copper price. The domestic copper inventory is low, but the LME and COMEX inventory accumulation is expected to limit the short - term increase of copper price [63] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH plants plan to stop for maintenance. The US C3 inventory increased, and the congestion of the Panama Canal may ease in late August, which will weaken the cost support [64][65] - Investment advice: The relative valuation of FEI will weaken marginally in late August [66] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA slightly lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026. The US EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories decreased. Oil prices fluctuated weakly [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain volatile in the short term [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price fell slightly. The cost pressure increased due to the decline of raw material prices. The domestic PX load may increase marginally in August, and the price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [71] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [72] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price fell, and the basis was stable. The demand was weak, and the supply of some plants decreased due to low processing fees. The price will fluctuate with crude oil and macro - sentiment [73][74] - Investment advice: The price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was moderate. The market is expected to remain stable in the short term [75][76] - Investment advice: The caustic soda spot price has bottomed out, and the futures price will fluctuate [76] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed a stronger trend. The prices of some imported pulp increased, while the prices of some other types remained stable. The price increase is limited due to poor supply - demand [77] - Investment advice: The pulp futures price will rise with the overall commodity sentiment, but the upward space is limited [78] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The fundamentals are weak, but the macro - positive factors and rising coal prices support the price. The market will fluctuate [79] - Investment advice: The PVC market will fluctuate [79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips changed little, and the price decreased due to the decline of polyester raw materials. The major bottle - chip factories will continue the production - cut state, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [80][81] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips will follow the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [81]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（148）期 发布日期：2025-08-14 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/14 | 2025/8/13 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,236.50 | 1,245.00 | -8.50 | -0:683 | | | 焦炭 | 1,735.00 | 1,737.00 | -2.0 | -0:115 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,875.00 | 15,800.00 | 75.0 | 0.475 | | | 20号胶 | 12,695.00 | 12,610.00 | 85.0 | 0.674 | | | 塑料 | 7,303.00 | 7,313.00 | -10. ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Rural Comprehensive Revitalization Plan (2024-2027)" emphasizes the importance of agricultural brand building to enhance rural revitalization and the development of specialty agriculture [1] Group 1: Agricultural Brand Building - The plan focuses on creating modern rural industrial corridors and implementing agricultural brand cultivation programs, which provide a significant basis for agricultural brand development across regions [1] - In Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, 30 authorized entities have developed 26 agricultural products with national and provincial geographical indications, and 166 green organic products cover 50% of the city's arable land [1] - The central government's emphasis on brand cultivation is expected to enhance the premium capability of agricultural products, standardize production, and promote the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [1] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Current challenges in brand building include limited communication methods and weak maintenance awareness, which need to be addressed through systematic thinking and a shift from "growing well" to "selling well" [1][2] - The "closed-loop supervision" mechanism in Mudanjiang aims to identify issues through in-depth research and ensure implementation through consensus and focused rectification [2] - Collaboration among production, academia, and research institutions is encouraged to enhance product value and promote ecological transformation in agriculture [2] Group 3: Cultural Recognition and Market Expansion - The sustainability of agricultural brands relies on cultural recognition, which can be achieved by showcasing brand stories and production techniques through various platforms [2] - Engaging consumers through cultural elements related to local agriculture and organizing participation in national promotional activities can enhance brand identity [2] - The agricultural sector is at a critical juncture for high-quality development, and the synergy of policy, innovation, and cultural appeal is expected to yield fruitful results for rural revitalization [2]

（本报首尔8月13日电） 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年08月14日 17 版） 农产品价格上涨明显加重了韩国民众的生活负担。韩国统计厅8月11日发布的7月物价数据显示，尽管整 体消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅维持在2.1%的水平，但食品及非酒精饮料价格指数同比上涨3.5%。 首尔市民卢泳和对记者表示，虽然公布的统计数据显示整体物价上涨并不多，但民众日常生活经常购买 的农产品确实贵了，感觉生活开销增加了不少。"现在我们也有意识减少外出就餐和购买高价水果，把 钱用在其他更需要的地方。"卢泳和说。 韩国农村经济研究院预计，受7月高温及暴雨等极端天气影响，韩国农产品总体供应量有所下降，预计8 月农产品价格还可能继续上涨。为此，韩国企划财政部近日发布了一系列稳定物价措施，包括将政府储 备白菜每日供应量较7月扩大2倍，增加到200至300吨；对西瓜等受极端天气影响较大的果蔬实施价格优 惠补贴；加快鸡肉进口审批流程，在7月底完成4000吨进口量的基础上，8月中旬再进一步增加进口量； 从7月28日到8月21日，与44家线上和线下物流企业合作，对水产品实施最多50%的打折优惠活动等。 韩国汉城大学经济学教授金相奉认为，与民 ...