Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days**: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Pig and Sows Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit**: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.85%. The overall pre - Spring Festival sales pace was acceptable, and it was approaching the end of the pre - holiday stocking period. As of February 5, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 11,888 tons, a decrease of 1,255 tons from last week, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 12.84% year - on - year increase. The pre - holiday sales situation was similar to that of the same period last year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, long - distance logistics had basically stopped, but local logistics could still operate normally. Due to the decentralized acquisition structure of the 2025 production season and the industry's generally cautious expectation for the new season after the holiday, risk control should be noted as the long holiday approached. Future trading should focus on spot prices and the consumer side [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 2.85% [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The pre - Spring Festival sales pace was acceptable, and it was near the end of the pre - holiday stocking. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased month - on - month. The pre - holiday sales were similar to last year. Long - distance logistics stopped, and local logistics was normal. The industry was cautious about the post - holiday market. Risk control was needed as the holiday approached. Future trading should focus on spot prices and the consumer side [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 2.85% [11]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 20,558 lots [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,350 [15]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 225 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei grey jujube spot price and the main contract of jujube futures was 535 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price in Main Producing Areas**: As of February 6, 2026, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [25]. - **First - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of February 6, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [29]. - **Special - Grade Jujube Spot Price**: As of February 6, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.23 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.44 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 11,888 tons, a decrease of 1,255 tons from last week, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 12.84% year - on - year increase [37]. - **Supply Side - Production**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [41]. - **Demand Side - Export**: In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, the export value was 79,876,362 yuan, the export average price was 15,749.81 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to December 2025 was 34,362,765 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [44]. - **Demand Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of trading in orders [49]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for jujubes this week is presented in the relevant chart, but specific data is not detailed [50]. - **Stock Market - Hao Xiang Ni**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) is presented, but specific data analysis is not provided [52].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格微跌，周度跌幅约0.61%。 行情展望：巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月份出口棉花31.685万 吨，同比减少23.76%。1月份，巴西棉在前期出口顺畅、棉企抓紧履约的前提下报 价上涨，美棉报价持续偏低，巴西棉性价比明显减弱。加之东南亚大部分国家与美 国签署新一轮贸易协定，纷纷加大美棉进口力度，也给巴西棉出口带来阻力。国内 市场：当前国产棉、进口棉等供应充足，可流通量增加明显。外棉入库仍较多，港 口库存维持入多出少的状态。据Mysteel调研显示，截至2月5日，进口棉主要港口库 存周环比增加4.14%，总库存51.59万吨。下游纺企陆续停机放假，暂停对原料的采 购，纱线库存明显增加。考虑到当前长假临近，短期暂且观望为主。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Nanning Market Supervision Administration conducted a special food safety inspection for the New Year and Spring Festival, testing 558 batches of various food products, with 553 passing and 5 failing the safety standards [3][4]. Group 2 - The inspection covered 14 categories of food products, including grain processing products, edible oils, meat products, dairy products, confectionery, alcoholic beverages, pastries, beverages, frozen foods, catering foods, and edible agricultural products [3]. - The inspection followed a random sampling principle, and the results indicated a high compliance rate, with 99.1% of the samples passing the safety standards [3]. Group 3 - The Nanning Market Supervision Administration has taken action against the non-compliant samples, requiring local regulatory departments to handle the involved production and operation units, trace the batches and quantities of non-compliant products, and implement recall and risk control measures [4]. - Consumers are advised to purchase food from reliable sources, check packaging labels for compliance, and report any issues with non-compliant products to the market supervision department [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Tencent's recent decline is primarily due to its failure to demonstrate leadership in AI, leading to concerns about its potential disruption in the future [8][13][17] - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 12.983 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, which has allowed competitors like ByteDance to gain a significant user base advantage [14] - The article emphasizes the importance of being unique and technologically superior in key market products to instill market confidence, as seen in the case of Google and its Gemini 3 launch [15][16] Group 2 - The decline of technology stocks in the A-share market is linked to market rotation and the concept of moderate inflation, which could impact investment strategies [18][22] - Many companies in sectors like AI, chips, and software have not shown outstanding financial performance despite previous hype, leading to a need for portfolio adjustments [19][20] - The article suggests avoiding high-valuation growth tech stocks and non-essential consumer goods during inflationary periods, as these sectors face significant challenges [23][25] Group 3 - Industries that should be focused on or increased in investment include energy and commodities, essential consumer goods, and utilities, which possess pricing power and can pass on rising costs to consumers [26][27][28][29] - In a moderate inflation environment, companies with strong pricing power, solid balance sheets, and current cash flow are more favorable for investment [30]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Yue Pin Si Miao, A Date with Thousands of Families" successfully showcased the unique charm of Guangdong's Si Miao rice, promoting local high-quality agricultural products and enhancing cultural connections during the Spring Festival [2][9]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Yue Pin Si Miao" tasting event took place from January 31 to February 1 at the Guangdong Agricultural Technology Promotion Center, allowing citizens to experience the distinct qualities of Si Miao rice [2]. - The event featured various well-known Si Miao rice enterprises, creating a platform for tasting and direct consumer engagement [4][9]. Group 2: Consumer Experience - Attendees enjoyed the fragrant and visually appealing Si Miao rice, with many expressing surprise at its quality and suitability for traditional Cantonese clay pot rice dishes [4][5]. - Interactive sessions, including a "Si Miao Rice Knowledge Classroom," educated participants about the rice's characteristics, cultivation history, and cultural significance, enhancing appreciation for local agricultural practices [7]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The event served as a concentrated display of the Si Miao rice industry, allowing companies to gather market feedback and increase brand visibility, which is crucial for expanding the "Yue" agricultural brand [9]. - The Guangdong Agricultural Technology Promotion Center aims to bridge the gap between producers and consumers, enhancing the market competitiveness and brand influence of Si Miao rice through ongoing promotional activities [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. Internationally, the US cotton futures price fell below 62 cents/pound, hitting a six - month low due to a stronger US dollar index. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation with slightly decreased positions. Before the Spring Festival, the upward driving force for Zhengzhou cotton is limited as textile enterprises' restocking motivation is weak [2]. - The sugar market is also in a volatile state. In the international market, precious metals are fluctuating widely, and the fundamental impact is limited. In China, the trading volume is average, and it will be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the festival, it will first absorb the impact of the overseas market and then reflect the domestic production progress and new yield estimates [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE US cotton dropped 0.74% to 61.78 cents/pound, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased 0.27% to 14,610 yuan/ton, with positions down 4,804 hands to 711,500 hands. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 15,640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The 2026 Central Document No. 1 mentioned promoting the stable development of the cotton industry and improving the cotton target - price policy. Before the Spring Festival, the textile enterprises' restocking motivation is limited as the available days of cotton inventory have reached a five - year high [2]. - **Sugar**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of February 3, 2026, 199 sugar mills in a certain region started production, the same as the previous season; the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons; and the sugar output was 8.0634 million tons with an average sugar - making rate of 9.27%. The price range of the Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, with a few prices up 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's price is 5,110 - 5,180 yuan/ton [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 60 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1402 yuan, up 80 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,743 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the national average spot price is 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 10 yuan, down 2 yuan; the main contract basis is 106 yuan, down 14 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Market Information - On February 5, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,500, an increase of 62 from the previous day, with 1,283 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,743 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 16,063 yuan/ton in Henan, 16,068 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 16,203 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On February 5, the yarn comprehensive load was 44.6, down 0.4 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 22.3, down 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.2, down 0.5; and the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.5, up 0.1 [4]. - On February 5, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 14,374, an increase of 158 from the previous day, with 345 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the cotton and sugar markets including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price indices of these two commodities over different time periods [7][10][15][18]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the Panama Canal port controversy, where the Chinese government has initiated countermeasures against Panama's Supreme Court ruling that revoked the port concession rights of a Hong Kong company, impacting China-Panama relations [1][3] - The Chinese government has requested state-owned enterprises to suspend negotiations on new projects with Panama, potentially jeopardizing billions of dollars in investments [3] - China's customs have intensified inspections on imports from Panama, signaling dissatisfaction and warning of consequences if Panama continues to confront China [3] Group 2 - The situation is influenced by external forces, particularly the U.S., which had anticipated the Supreme Court's decision and indicated plans for Maersk to take over the port, revealing intentions to diminish China's influence in Latin America [5] - The relationship between the Panama government and the U.S. is viewed as a short-term strategy that could lead to significant risks if not managed carefully [5] - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics highlight that Panama's decisions are not merely commercial disputes but involve deeper geopolitical relationships, testing the spirit of national contracts [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

农产品日报 | 2026-02-06 中性 美豆采购增加，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2731元/吨，较前日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.29%；菜粕2605合约2238元/吨，较前 日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.40%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+429， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+289，较前日变动+2；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+269，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2410 元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM05+172，较前日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，根据Safras & Mercado的调查，巴西港口的装运计划显示，2月份巴西大豆出口量为1142万吨，高于 1月份的出口量244.4万吨，也高于去年2月的出口量958.6万吨。Safras & Mercado调查显示，根据巴西港口装运计划， 2月巴西大豆出口量高达1142万吨，高于1月的244.4万吨，也高于2025年2 ...